Unlock the other 5 races on today's card, plus AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet ticket construction.

The winner is in our top 4 picks 75% of the time, across 17 tracks.

Daily Picks

Thistledown Picks & Predictions — August 26, 2026

August 26, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

Thistledown is rolling out an eight-race Wednesday card on August 26, and the conditions are about as cooperative as you could ask for — cloudy skies and a comfortable 74°F keeping the track playing honest. No baking sun, no weather drama. Just horses, dirt, and decisions.

The card leans heavily on sprint distances, with five races going 5½ furlongs and two stretching out to a mile. The lone six-furlong test comes in Race 8, and the lone allowance race at a route distance headlines Race 3. Pace is going to be the story all afternoon — those short sprints will reward horses that can grab a clean trip and hold on late.

We've got three free previews to get you started, plus premium full-card analysis for the serious players. Let's break it down.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Our ratings separate two clear contenders from the pack in this 5½-furlong dirt claimer, but the morning line favorite doesn't match up with the TrackWiz numbers — making this a race where the public money and the data tell very different stories.

win5Airforce LightningML 5/1

Airforce Lightning is the top-rated horse in this field with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating, standing well clear of most rivals despite going off at 5/1 on the morning line. That's a meaningful gap over the morning-line chalk, and it's the kind of overlay that gets our attention in a claiming sprint. Trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza puts Erik Barbaran in the irons, a confident booking for a 5½-furlong dirt dash. At 12% career wins, the raw number is modest, but the rating profile says this horse belongs at the top of the ticket.

place4Tale of LemonbelleML 9/2

Tale of Lemonbelle rates second in the field at 73.76 and draws the attention of the trainer-jockey family connection — Jefferson Skerrett riding for trainer Jeffrey Skerrett, which is always worth noting as a sharp barn signal. A 14% career win rate keeps the expectations grounded, but in a race with average speed figures clustered across the board, this one projects as a solid place contender at a fair 9/2 morning line.

show2SparklyML 4/1

Sparkly edges out Little Value Added in the ratings at 63.35 and carries the highest TrackWiz score among the mid-tier group. Trainer Emily Szczepanski also has Sthenic in the race, but Sparkly is clearly the stable's better option here based on the numbers. At 4/1 on the morning line, she offers some value in the exotics as a live show contender if the top two run as expected.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A Starter Optional Claiming mile on dirt where the TrackWiz model finds a clear top two — but Rock the Red's superior average speed figure adds an interesting wrinkle to the pace scenario that could shake up the order of finish.

win3Puff'smagicdragonML 5/1

Puff'smagicdragon shares the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.17 and brings a legitimate 23% career win rate to the table — the kind of strike rate that tells you this horse knows how to close the deal. Erik Barbaran gets the call for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, a solid booking going a mile on dirt. At 5/1 on the morning line, there's real value here versus the public favorite Hilarious Affair, who rates more than 22 points lower in our model.

place2Dr SchusterML 4/1

Dr Schuster sits second in the ratings at 79.26 and figures to be forwardly placed with an average speed figure that keeps pace with most of this field. Trainer Robin Schuster's personal investment in this horse is always a storyline worth noting — connections like that tend to mean a horse is pointed for a specific spot. At 4/1, Dr Schuster slots in as a logical place play behind our top pick.

show7Rock the RedML 6/1

Rock the Red is the most intriguing speed figure in the race, posting the field-best average speed of 54 — a tick faster than the top two in the ratings. Trainer Nestor R. Rivera also has More Than Five in the race but clearly views Rock the Red as the stable's first string here, with Alexander Chavez aboard. If the pace collapses up front, this one's superior raw speed could carry him deep into the trifecta.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

This allowance mile shapes up as a two-horse battle at the top, with Riobella and Cloud Storage holding a substantial class edge over the rest of the field — the intrigue is whether Kissin Cash or Carmel Rose can steal a piece at better odds.

win6RiobellaML 9/5

Riobella tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.83 and is the morning-line favorite at 9/5, so the public and the model are aligned here. Trainer Kim A. Puhl has a strong stable presence in this race, and Luis Antonio Gonzalez gets the assignment on the top pick — that's a confident combination. The 14% career win rate is the one number that invites some caution, but in allowance company where class separates quickly, the 88.83 rating is hard to argue against.

place2Cloud StorageML 5/2

Cloud Storage rates a close second at 85.77 with Ricardo Feliciano riding for trainer Benny R. Feliciano — another family connection that signals a sharp, focused barn. The 18% career win rate is solid for this level, and the 5/2 morning line reflects legitimate public confidence. If Riobella stumbles or gets into trouble, Cloud Storage has the rating and the talent to take over.

show5Kissin CashML 9/2

Kissin Cash checks in at 77.74 in the ratings with a 23% career win rate that's the strongest strike rate among the leading contenders in this field. Jefferson Skerrett rides for trainer Kim A. Puhl — same barn as the top pick — which occasionally creates a conflicted dynamic but also means the connections know exactly how good Kissin Cash is. At 9/2, she's a sensible show bet and trifecta anchor in a race where the top of the order looks fairly set.

The three free races span a range of conditions — a 5½-furlong claimer to open the card, a one-mile Starter Optional Claiming in Race 2, and the day's most compelling allowance test in Race 3. Riobella stands out as the marquee free pick with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and a morning line of 9/5 — she's the horse to beat at the route and our highest-rated free selection on the card. Earlier, Airforce Lightning and Puff'smagicdragon both check in at 84.17, making the opener and Race 2 genuinely competitive situations where pace scenario will matter.

With the track playing fair under overcast skies, we don't expect a pronounced speed bias today — but keep an eye on how the early sprints play out. If front-runners are holding late, that's your signal to get aggressive on pace horses in the back half of the card.

Send me tomorrow's free Thistledown card before post time.

Free picks in your inbox each morning. No card required, unsubscribe anytime.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A small but competitive 5½-furlong claiming field where the TrackWiz model identifies a clear top three — and the most eye-catching stat of the day might be Jac's Doe Maker's jaw-dropping 50% career win rate hiding beneath a second-choice morning line.

win6Tyson's Lil' StarML 9/5

Tyson's Lil' Star leads the field with the highest TrackWiz rating at 88.83 and boasts the top average speed figure in the race at 54 — both meaningful edges in a short sprint. Luis Antonio Gonzalez rides for trainer Valerie K. Shanyfelt, and a 22% career win rate gives this horse a proven record of delivering when pointed for a race. The 9/5 morning line suggests the public also respects this one, and for once the crowd and our model are in agreement.

place3Tough CatML 7/2

Tough Cat is right there at 85.41 in the ratings and brings a 22% career win rate to match — this is a deep, consistent competitor who figures to be in the mix all the way around the turn. Jose A. Bracho has a live shot here for trainer Joseph M. Poole, and the 7/2 morning line gives you a fair return if you're boxing these two in exactas. The gap between Tough Cat and the rest of the field is wide enough to feel comfortable about a place ticket.

show1Jac's Doe MakerML 8/5

Jac's Doe Maker is the most statistically unusual horse on the entire card — a 50% career win rate is extraordinary and suggests a horse that competes hard and gets the job done when fit. The 79.37 TrackWiz rating puts her third in the field, and Chelsey Keiser picks up the mount for trainer Ivan Vazquez. At 8/5 on the morning line, she's the public's choice, which means show payoffs may be slim, but she's difficult to leave out of the exotic mix entirely.

Race 5

6:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Three horses are bunched within three rating points at the top of this 5½-furlong claimer, setting up a genuine pace duel between speed-heavy competitors — the horse that controls the tempo without burning up could have a significant advantage.

win4May MayhemML 3/1

May Mayhem leads the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and posts a top average speed figure of 54 to match — in a short sprint, that combination is the profile you're looking for. Luis Raul Rivera takes the mount for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, who also conditions Puff'smagicdragon in Race 2, showing an active and confident barn. At 3/1, May Mayhem offers legitimate value against a public favorite in Fact Not Fiction who rates just a hair below in our model.

place1Fact Not FictionML 9/5

Fact Not Fiction is the standout career win percentage horse in this field at a remarkable 35% — that's a horse that wins far more than its fair share of starts. Jefferson Skerrett rides for trainer Jeffrey Skerrett in another family booking, and the 85.99 TrackWiz rating keeps this one squarely in the mix. The 9/5 morning line makes it a tough win bet from a value standpoint, but a place ticket is a comfortable way to play this consistent performer.

show3Worthy OpponentML 7/2

Worthy Opponent checks in at 78.30 in the ratings with a 21% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54 — matching the field's best. Rocco Bowen gets the call for trainer Candace M. Huffman, and at 7/2, there's some return if this one runs into the money behind the top two. In a race where the pace could be fierce among the top contenders, a closer profile like Worthy Opponent can benefit from rivals who've done too much work too early.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The top two in the TrackWiz ratings are separated from the rest of this 5½-furlong field by a wide margin, but the real story is whether Blazing Zenna — a significant longshot — can use a ground-saving trip to sneak into the exotics at a big number.

win2Tizzy JojoML 2/1

Tizzy Jojo is the clear class standout in this field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and carries a 15% career win rate that's respectable in claiming company. Fernando Salazar Becerra gets the mount for trainer Gary L. Johnson, a straightforward top-choice booking. The 2/1 morning line reflects public confidence, and while the win price won't be extravagant, the model strongly supports making this horse the foundation of any multi-race wager.

place6Miss FoxannML 9/5

Miss Foxann rates second in the field at 81.01 and posts the highest average speed figure in the race at 54 — a notable edge in a 5½-furlong sprint where raw speed matters from the jump. Rocco Bowen rides for trainer Julie A. Pappada, and a 12% career win rate is the one mild concern. Still, the combination of elite speed figures and a solid rating makes her the most logical place contender in the race.

show1Blazing ZennaML 12/1

Rating board at 53.4. Ridden by Jefferson Skerrett. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.76 sec/furlong. Has placed in 4 of the last 6 races.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Mandalay Sky enters as the clear top-rated horse and morning-line co-favorite, but Salute the Ghost's 100% career win rate — however small the sample — and Her Own Shadow's strong 28% strike rate make this a race with legitimate intrigue beneath the surface.

win1Mandalay SkyML 2/1

Mandalay Sky leads all comers with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and a 22% career win rate that speaks to consistent competitiveness. Fernando Salazar Becerra takes the mount for trainer Israel Flores — Salazar Becerra has been busy on this card, which typically signals a rider who's confident in his horses. The 2/1 morning line is fair given the rating gap between Mandalay Sky and the rest of the field.

place5Her Own ShadowML 9/5

Her Own Shadow rates second in the field at 79.26 and brings a strong 28% career win rate — one of the best strike rates in this particular race. Luis Raul Rivera rides for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, who's been active all card long. At 9/5 on the morning line, Her Own Shadow is actually co-favored with Mandalay Sky by the morning line maker, suggesting this is seen as a genuine two-horse race — and our ratings agree.

show4BiondettisnitemareML 7/2

Biondettisnitemare sits at 51.89 in the ratings with a 20% career win rate, giving this horse a better-than-average probability of hitting the board. David J. Haldar rides for trainer Rodney C. Faulkner, and while the 7/2 morning line might not scream value, the 20% career win rate suggests a horse that runs honestly. In a race that figures to be contested by the top two, Biondettisnitemare looks like a safe show anchor for horizontal exotic plays.

Race 8

8:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The finale is a 6-furlong allowance where Queen Kitty's top rating is backed by the morning line, but Jilly Runs Deep's 25% career win rate and Come On Arlene's consistent profile give this race more competitive depth than the favorite's odds suggest.

win6Queen KittyML 2/1

Queen Kitty carries the field's top TrackWiz rating at 88.54 and is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 — a clear signal that both the public and our model are on the same page. Brandon Tapara gets the assignment for trainer Loren Huepenbecker, who also has Jilly Runs Deep in this field, showing real confidence by splitting runners in the same race. A 15% career win rate is the one number that doesn't dazzle, but the rating edge over this allowance field is substantial enough to make Queen Kitty the race's anchor.

place1Jilly Runs DeepML 4/1

Jilly Runs Deep brings the field's best career win percentage at 25% — a genuine overachiever by win-rate standards. T.D. Houghton rides for the same Loren Huepenbecker barn as the top pick, which is worth noting: when a trainer doubles up in a race, the better-performing horse at the wire often tells you something about stable confidence. At 4/1, Jilly Runs Deep is a solid place play and a natural exacta partner with Queen Kitty.

show7Come On ArleneML 3/1

Come On Arlene rates third in the field at 70.82 with an 18% career win rate and an average speed figure of 53 — matching the top horses in raw pace terms. Fernando Salazar Becerra, who's been one of the busiest and most effective riders on this card, rides for trainer Robert C. Cline. At 3/1, the morning line respects this horse's chances, and the combination of a capable jockey and a solid rating makes Come On Arlene a credible show option and trifecta component in the day's final race.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Riobella is our top free play of the day, and the sprint-heavy back half of the card sets up plenty of exotic opportunity for subscribers. It's a workmanlike Wednesday card at Thistledown — exactly the kind of afternoon where sharp prep work pays off. Full analysis, pace projections, and exotic tickets are all waiting for you inside TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there.

← All Thistledown picks & predictions

You're reading 3 of 8 races free

Best Bets

Race 1↗

Race 2↗

Race 3↗

Send me tomorrow's free Thistledown card before post time.

Full Card Analysis

Get the Full Card Analysis

Race 1

Race 2

Race 3