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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — August 27, 2026

August 27, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

It's a beautiful Thursday at Thistledown — clear skies, 75°F, and a fast dirt surface that should reward horses with early foot. Eight races are on the board today, mixing allowance company with a quartet of maiden special weights, giving us plenty of angles to work with from the first race to the finale.

Conditions are as close to perfect as you'll get in late August. No rain, no wind, no excuses — the track is playing fair, and we'd expect speed figures to run true today. That's good news if you're looking for reliable form reads rather than trying to guess surface quirks.

The highlight of the afternoon shaping up is Race 8, where Sweet Vivian (8/5 morning line) carries our highest TrackWiz rating on the entire card at 89.12. But there's real value scattered throughout this card, including a few spots where the morning line may not reflect what our models are seeing.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A deep allowance mile with a standout TrackWiz rating at the top but several live challengers lurking — the pace could set up for a presser or closer to steal the show.

win5Strategic ProfileML 4/1

Strategic Profile is the clear top selection here, posting an 85.62 TrackWiz rating that leads this field and drawing the services of Rocco Bowen in the irons. What really jumps off the page is that 80% career win rate — that's a horse who knows how to finish the job. At 4/1 on the morning line, trainer Timothy E. Hamm has this one pointing right at this spot, and a mile on dirt suits a horse with this kind of rating edge.

place2Phreddie MacML 7/2

Phreddie Mac checks in with an 82.58 rating — second-best in the race — and trainer Kim A. Puhl doubles her chances here with two entrants. Luis Antonio Gonzalez gets the call, and at 7/2, the morning line actually has Phreddie Mac as the public choice. This is a horse that belongs in your exotics at minimum, and if Strategic Profile hits any trouble, Phreddie Mac is right there to capitalize.

show9WetzelML 9/2

Wetzel lands at 9/2 on the morning line and carries a solid 70.12 rating alongside an 18% career win rate — both respectable marks in a field this competitive. Jose A. Bracho is an experienced hand, and a mile at Thistledown suits a horse with some tactical flexibility. Use Wetzel underneath in trifectas as a sturdy safety net.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint with first-time starters and lightly raced youngsters making this a true guessing game — two horses at the top of the TrackWiz ratings are separated by a whisker.

win10My PaisanML 9/2

My Paisan tops the field with an 84.43 TrackWiz rating and shows an average speed figure of 53, which is sharp for this maiden company. Chelsey Keiser takes the mount for trainer Tina Casalinova — a combination worth watching in a sprint like this. At 9/2, there's genuine value on the morning line for the horse our ratings favor most, and a 5½-furlong dirt dash rewards early speed and athleticism that My Paisan appears to possess.

place9Rivers Run FastML 5/1

Rivers Run Fast is just a sliver behind at 84.17 and also shows a 52 average speed figure — making this essentially a dead heat at the top of the TrackWiz sheet. Brandon Tapara takes the mount for trainer Loren Huepenbecker, and the 5/1 morning line offers solid overlay potential if you're building tickets. In a maiden special weight where anything can happen, having both top-rated horses covered underneath is the smart play.

show2Dragon HunterML 8/1

Dragon Hunter rates third in this field at 72.83 with a 52 average speed figure, which is meaningful separation from the rest of the pack in a race where several entrants show no published speed figures at all. Erik Barbaran and trainer Michael L. Rone put this one in a solid spot at 8/1. As a show horse in trifectas, Dragon Hunter offers a layer of protection at a price worth paying.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong starter optional claimer headlined by a morning-line favorite who owns the best TrackWiz rating AND the best career win percentage — rare to see both align so cleanly.

win1One Smokin' RitaML 2/1

One Smokin' Rita is the standout here, leading the field with an 86.59 TrackWiz rating and a 29% career win rate that speaks to consistent competitiveness. Alexander Chavez gets the mount for trainer Nestor R. Rivera, who also saddles Miss Fussy Pants — suggesting Rivera is confident in this stable runner. The 2/1 morning line makes her the clear public choice, and frankly, the numbers back it up. An average speed figure of 54 matches the top tier of this field.

place2Chess Not CheckersML 5/1

Chess Not Checkers is the play to run second at 5/1, showing an 84.17 rating that's just a step below the top pick and a 19% career win rate that says this horse fires on a regular basis. Jose A. Bracho pairs with trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, a reliable combo at this level. The six-furlong distance on dirt suits a horse carrying this kind of speed figure average.

show6Absolute MiracleML 7/2

Absolute Miracle rates at 70.05 with a 26% career win rate — that win percentage is actually second-best in the field and tells you this horse has been productive at various levels. Jefferson Skerrett takes the mount for trainer Jeffrey Skerrett — a family operation that tends to run their horses sharp. At 7/2, Absolute Miracle is an excellent show anchor and deserves consideration in exacta and trifecta tickets.

We're giving everyone a look at the first three races today, and they cover a nice cross-section of today's themes. Strategic Profile opens the card in a one-mile allowance at 4/1 — a price that looks workable given the rating our analysis produced. In Race 2, first-time and lightly-raced maidens take on 5½ furlongs, and My Paisan at 9/2 stands out as a horse whose morning line may be leaving some value on the table. Then Race 3 brings the pace heat — One Smokin' Rita is the short favorite at 2/1 in the Starter Optional Claiming, and our 86.59 rating backs up that confidence.

A consistent thread through these free races: on a clear, fast Thistledown surface, horses that can apply early pressure without burning themselves up have a meaningful edge. Watch the fractional splits in Race 3 especially — the pace scenario sets up as one of the more interesting of the day.

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Race 4

6:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

A maiden mile where the morning-line favorite doesn't match the highest TrackWiz rating — that kind of split creates real betting intrigue and a potential overlay at a juicy price.

win6Son of a G QML 6/1

Son of a G Q is our top pick at 6/1 on the morning line despite owning an 82.71 TrackWiz rating — the best in this field by a clear margin. Victor R. Fernandez gets the call for trainer Robert C. Cline, and the value here is real: this is a horse the public is underestimating relative to what our numbers say. In a maiden mile on dirt, a horse with this kind of rating edge deserves to be your top selection regardless of morning line.

place2Lowells LegacyML 2/1

Lowells Legacy is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and rates second in the field at 72.79 — David J. Haldar in the irons for trainer Jeff Fletcher is a competent pairing at Thistledown. This one likely gets most of the public money, so the value isn't here for win bets, but using Lowells Legacy in the place spot on your tickets protects you if the market is right.

show3Basovak StarML 9/5

Basovak Star rates at 64.53 with a 52 average speed figure and lands at 9/5 as the co-favorite — Jason Simpson rides for trainer Ricardo Bailey in what should be a competitive debut showing. The speed figure is consistent with the field's middle tier, and at a price that short, using Basovak Star as a show anchor makes sense for safety in multi-race wagers.

Race 5

6:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Three horses cluster above 85 on the TrackWiz ratings in a six-furlong allowance, setting up a genuine battle — but there's a clear value play hiding near the top of the morning line.

win6Tia LupeML 3/1

Tia Lupe leads the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and posts an average speed figure of 53, pairing with Fernando Salazar Becerra for trainer Elias Lopez. What's compelling here is the 3/1 morning line — not especially generous for the top-rated horse, but Tia Lupe's rating edge is real in a race where every fraction matters over six furlongs. A 10% career win rate can seem modest, but at this competitive allowance level, it's the raw numbers that carry the most weight.

place7Bend My EarML 5/2

Bend My Ear is the most interesting horse on the board here — a 33% career win rate combined with an 85.9 TrackWiz rating and a 54 average speed figure make this one genuinely dangerous. Mauro Cedillo rides for trainer David Wolochuk, and at 5/2, the morning line reflects real respect. This could easily have been the win pick, and using Bend My Ear on top in alternate combos is worth considering.

show2Suzie Q's SisterML 4/1

Suzie Q's Sister checks in at 85.62 — just a tick below the top two — and her 20% career win rate suggests she converts at a solid clip. Luis Alberto Batista gets the mount for trainer Jason DaCosta, who also runs Lady Midshipman in this spot. At 4/1, Suzie Q's Sister is an excellent exotic anchor and could easily run down one of the top picks if the pace scenario sets up right.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

An all-maiden filly sprint with most entrants showing no published speed figures — this one comes down to trainer connections, morning line confidence, and the handful of horses showing any prior form.

win6Rockaway BeachML 9/5

Rockaway Beach tops our selections here with a 58.67 TrackWiz rating and the support of Rocco Bowen — one of the stronger jockeys on the Thistledown circuit — for trainer William E. Morey. The 9/5 morning line indicates clear public support, and in a field where most rivals have no published speed figures, any form edge is magnified. Bowen's presence on a short-priced maiden suggests connections have confidence in this filly's readiness.

place3Roses ThunderML 2/1

Roses Thunder rates at 58.33 — essentially neck-and-neck with the top pick — and lands at 2/1 on the morning line for trainer Nestor R. Rivera with Angel I. Diaz up. Rivera also saddles Cairo Mia in this race, but the morning line makes clear which filly the barn prefers. In a tight maiden sprint like this, having both top-rated horses covered in exactas is the prudent approach.

show4Dream Girl PaigeML 4/1

Dream Girl Paige rates at 55.0 with no published speed figure, but trainer Shane Meyers has a knack for placing horses to win, and Jose A. Bracho is a reliable handler for first-timers. At 4/1, this filly offers some price in a race where the top two are relatively short, and she makes sense as the third leg in your trifecta tickets.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A loaded six-furlong allowance with two horses rated above 84 and a tight pace scenario that should produce a fast, honest duel — this is one of the stronger races on the card.

win3Gray PerfectionML 5/2

Gray Perfection leads the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — the highest mark in this race — and pairs with Erik Barbaran for trainer Michael L. Rone. A 33% career win rate is legitimately impressive at the allowance level, and a 54 average speed figure puts this horse right in the mix on raw numbers. At 5/2 on the morning line, there's modest value on a horse the data clearly supports as the top selection.

place4Nava's GoldML 8/5

Nava's Gold rates at 84.84 and is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 — a 37% career win rate is the best mark in this field and tells you this horse closes the deal with regularity. Luis Raul Rivera rides for trainer James R. Jackson in what looks like a formidable pairing. If the pace gets heated up front, Nava's Gold has the profile to run them down and should be on every trifecta ticket.

show1She's Willie FastML 6/1

She's Willie Fast rates at 68.42 with a 30% career win rate — that's a horse who competes hard and finishes on the board consistently. Jose A. Bracho teams with trainer Joseph M. Poole from the rail post, and 6/1 is an attractive price for a horse with a reliable win percentage. She's Willie Fast makes a great show horse in a race where the top two could battle each other into submission.

Race 8

8:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

The closing maiden mile features a dominant TrackWiz rating at the top and a clear one-two punch — but at 8/5 and 9/5, the top pair will be chalky, making trifecta construction the real puzzle.

win1Sweet VivianML 8/5

Sweet Vivian is the class of this field, posting an 89.12 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark of any horse on today's entire Thistledown card. Jose A. Bracho pilots for trainer Joseph M. Poole, and at 8/5, the public clearly agrees with our assessment. An average speed figure of 51 in a maiden mile is solid, and when a horse's rating separates this cleanly from the competition, it's hard to look elsewhere for the top spot.

place5Native LucciML 9/5

Native Lucci rates at 83.28 — a strong second in this field — and shows a 52 average speed figure with David J. Haldar up for trainer Rodney C. Faulkner. At 9/5, this is essentially a co-favorite situation, and the gap between Native Lucci and the rest of the field is substantial. Use Native Lucci in the place spot on tickets, but don't sleep on flipping the 1-5 if you want to play against the chalk on top.

show4Isa FortressML 4/1

Isa Fortress rates at 57.26 with a 51 average speed figure and lands at 4/1 — a reasonable morning line price for the third choice in what's essentially a two-horse race at the top. T.D. Houghton rides for trainer Loren Huepenbecker, and as the clear third-best horse in the field on TrackWiz numbers, Isa Fortress is your show leg of choice in exactas and trifectas where you need a price underneath.

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Thistledown is dealing a clean, fast card today and the conditions couldn't be more cooperative. Our top play of the day is Sweet Vivian in Race 8, but there's legitimate value in Races 1–3 for everyone. If you want the full picture — pace projections, exotic tickets, and every angle on all eight races — the complete analysis is available to subscribers at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck at the windows.

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