Thistledown Picks & Predictions — August 25, 2026

Water Into Wine at 8/5 is the public's choice and it's not hard to see why — an 86.32 rating, a 22% career win rate, and the high-profile Rocco Bowen booking make this a horse that deserves to be bet. The Tim Hamm barn is active at Thistledown and knows how to have a horse ready. The narrow rating gap between these top two makes Water Into Wine a very live place play, even if we're siding against it for the win.

Duo opened at 5/1 and sports a 69.17 rating, making it a clear tier below the top pair but well clear of the rest. Alexander Chavez aboard and an 8% career win rate suggest a horse that doesn't always fire, but the allowance conditions and distance should suit. In a race where the top two dueling could set up a soft pace for the rest, Duo is the most logical beneficiary in the show hole.

Air Sahara at 5/1 is one of the better value angles here, carrying a 69.43 rating — second-best in the field — for trainer Kim Puhl, who also sends out the long shot Vadora, suggesting stable confidence leans toward this one. Luis Antonio Gonzalez gets the call, and the average speed figure of 53 holds up well in this company. If Proud Words stumbles or gets into traffic trouble, Air Sahara is the most likely beneficiary.

Charisma in Motion sits third on our ratings at 64.68 and draws post 4, which is a workable position in a maiden sprint. Trainer Candace Huffman has a solid 16% win rate with Radio Silent in Race 1 today, showing the barn is active and placing horses well. At 4/1 morning line, Charisma in Motion offers reasonable value for show purposes and trifecta construction in what is admittedly an unpredictable maiden event.

Dublin Time is the morning-line chalk at 2/1 with a 79.82 rating — second in the field and not far behind — making it a fully legitimate contender that the public is right to respect. Brandon Tapara and trainer Robert Gorham are sending this one out with obvious confidence. If H F S Memories doesn't fire its best, Dublin Time is the most likely alternative winner, and it's nearly certain to hit the board.

Markaway at 9/5 is actually the public's second choice despite a 64.50 rating that slots it third among our scores — meaning the market may be slightly overrating this one. Still, Jason Simpson is a steady rider and the Kristina Tumblin barn places horses carefully. The price may compress on the board, but Markaway is a logical show play in a maiden field that could produce a messy result.

Rumble Strip Ron at 5/1 is our clear second choice with a 75.02 rating — a significant gap below Gray Day but well clear of the rest. Jefferson Skerrett handles the mount and the average speed of 54 is the best in the field, including the favorite. If Gray Day encounters any pace pressure or traffic, Rumble Strip Ron is positioned to swoop in and grab the exacta spot at a price that makes the exotic worth playing.

Shake the Frost brings a 63.31 rating and a 20% career win rate to the party at 4/1, making it a legitimate board threat for trainer Timothy Hamm, who also saddles a pair of horses today. Rocco Bowen aboard adds a quality rider to the mix. At that win rate and with Bowen up, this one is a solid show play and a reasonable trifecta inclusion — especially if the top two hook up in a pace duel going a mile.

Driven for Success is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and carries an 83.34 rating — barely a nose behind our top pick numerically. Luis Raul Rivera rides for Jeffrey Radosevich, who is one of the more active trainers on today's card with multiple entries. A 17% career win rate and the public's confidence make this one nearly certain to factor, even if we're sliding it to the place spot based on our slight rating advantage for Tale of the Lyon.

National Diamond at 5/1 shows a 22% career win rate — the best conversion number in this field — and a 68.10 rating that puts it a clear third on our board. Chelsey Keiser handles the mount for David Wolochuk, and the horse's ability to win at a higher clip than most of its rivals suggests it finds ways to hit the board even when not at its peak. In a sprint where pace can get messy, that kind of consistency is worth backing in your exotics.

Coloryoureggs posts an 81.73 rating and a 23% career win rate for trainer Robert Cline, who also has Elopedatthederby in this field — but our numbers clearly favor this one. Victor Fernandez handles the mount and the horse's consistency suggests it'll be on or near the lead at every call. In an allowance sprint, that kind of tactical flexibility is worth a great deal, and 5/2 is a workable price for the exacta slot.

S'mor Crafty's 37% career win rate is frankly the standout biographical stat on the entire card today — that is an elite mark for any level of racing. Chelsey Keiser rides for Robert Guciardo, and the 75.90 TrackWiz rating keeps this one solidly in the mix at 4/1. If the pace gets honest up front, S'mor Crafty's ability to convert at a high rate makes it the horse most likely to outrun its rating and steal a piece.