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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — August 25, 2026

August 25, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

Tuesday afternoon at Thistledown and the racing gods are cooperating — partly cloudy skies, a comfortable 73°F, and a compact 8-race all-dirt card that gives you plenty to work with without overwhelming your bankroll. Conditions look near ideal for a fair, unbiased track, which means raw ability and pace scenario should drive the results today rather than surface flukes.

The card mixes claiming races and allowance company with a pair of maiden claiming sprints in the middle of the card — a nice blend of angles for bettors who like to dig. We've got three races open for everyone and five premium breakdowns for subscribers who want the full picture.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open 6-furlong claiming opener where the top TrackWiz rating belongs to a horse going off at 7/2 — plenty of value to be had if the pace scenario sets up right.

win3Red Chili PepperML 7/2

Red Chili Pepper tops our ratings with an 86.35 — the highest mark in the field by a comfortable margin — and Rocco Bowen is a sharp pick-up in the irons. At 7/2 on the morning line, this one isn't being overlooked by the market either, which tells you the connections are confident. A 16% career win rate is steady for this level, and the 6-furlong sprint distance should play right into a pressing style if the pace unfolds as expected.

place2That's the WayML 2/1

That's the Way carries the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 and backs it up with a 77.92 TrackWiz rating and a 21% career win clip — that's legitimate punch for a claiming field. Erik Barbaran has been reliable at this meet, and trainer Jeffrey Radosevich knows how to place horses. Even if Red Chili Pepper fires on top, That's the Way figures to be digging in late for the exacta spot.

show8John FitzgeraldML 10/1

John Fitzgerald at 10/1 is an intriguing underneath play, posting a 68.12 rating that slots him solidly into the third tier of this field. A 19% career win rate suggests he fires more often than his price implies, and Alexander Chavez will keep him in a good spot early. At double-digit odds, he makes plenty of sense in trifecta construction.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Classy Disposition and Blazing Affair bring a genuine one-two punch to this Starter Optional Claiming mile, but the pace scenario over a route could shake things up for closers lurking at price.

win8Classy DispositionML 3/1

Classy Disposition owns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 and backs it up with a 29% career win rate — that's an elite conversion number for this class level. Ricardo Feliciano and trainer Benny Feliciano are a tight team, and the connections clearly know this horse's best race. The 3/1 morning line is fair without being prohibitive, making this a confident top selection going a flat mile on the dirt.

place7Blazing AffairML 2/1

Blazing Affair is the one horse here who jumps off the page on raw speed — an average speed figure of 56 is the best in the field by two ticks, and a 40% career win rate is jaw-dropping for any level. Trainer George Bush sends this one out as the 2/1 morning-line second choice, and the combo of elite speed and route distance makes a strong case that Blazing Affair controls the early pace and either wires the field or softens up for Classy Disposition.

show2KozemML 5/1

Kozem brings a 72.92 rating and a 22% career win rate into this spot at 5/1 — enough class to hit the board even if the top two battle it out up front. Jefferson Skerrett is one of the more active riders at this meet, and trainer Caryn Vecchio appears to have this horse placed right. In a pace duel scenario, Kozem as a closer could be the one cleaning up late.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

This allowance mile is nearly a two-horse race at the top, with Runaway Power and Water Into Wine separated by just three one-hundredths of a rating point — expect a tight battle and some genuine intrigue in the exotics.

win5Runaway PowerML 7/2

Runaway Power edges out our top rating at 86.35 and goes postward at a generous 7/2 — better value than the 8/5 favorite despite a nearly identical score. Fernando Salazar Becerra gets the mount for Robert Cline, who is no stranger to placing horses at the right level. A 13% career win rate is modest, but in allowance company the pace setup and form cycle matter more, and our analysis gives this horse the slight edge to convert.

place3Water Into WineML 8/5

Water Into Wine at 8/5 is the public's choice and it's not hard to see why — an 86.32 rating, a 22% career win rate, and the high-profile Rocco Bowen booking make this a horse that deserves to be bet. The Tim Hamm barn is active at Thistledown and knows how to have a horse ready. The narrow rating gap between these top two makes Water Into Wine a very live place play, even if we're siding against it for the win.

show1DuoML 5/1

Duo opened at 5/1 and sports a 69.17 rating, making it a clear tier below the top pair but well clear of the rest. Alexander Chavez aboard and an 8% career win rate suggest a horse that doesn't always fire, but the allowance conditions and distance should suit. In a race where the top two dueling could set up a soft pace for the rest, Duo is the most logical beneficiary in the show hole.

Our free analysis covers the first three races, and there's a legitimate thread connecting all three picks: horses that figure to control or sit just off honest fractions on a surface playing fair. Red Chili Pepper opens the day at 7/2 morning line in Race 1's 6-furlong claiming sprint — a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 makes this horse one of the stronger plays on the early card. Race 2 stretches out to a mile in Starter Optional Claiming company, where Classy Disposition (3/1 ML, 87.08 rating) rates as the top choice and looks well-suited to the added ground. Then Race 3 steps up to allowance level at a mile, with Runaway Power posting the same 86.35 rating as our top selection at 7/2.

What ties these three together: all three distances favor tactical runners who can find a good position early and sustain it, and with the track playing honest today, don't expect any dramatic rail bias to muddy the picture. Trust the numbers, watch the early odds movement, and use TrackWiz ratings as your baseline.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Proud Words looks like a standout in a maiden claiming sprint where experience is limited and first-off-the-mark intentions are impossible to read — but at 8/5, you're paying for the edge.

win7Proud WordsML 8/5

Proud Words carries an 89.12 TrackWiz rating — the top mark in the field by a healthy margin — and the 8/5 morning line confirms the market agrees. Noel Vigil is a capable rider, and trainer Richard Zielinski puts this horse in a field where the rating gap is substantial. In maiden company, that kind of analytical separation often translates directly to the result, especially at 6 furlongs where there's less room for pace scenarios to dramatically shuffle the deck.

place6Air SaharaML 5/1

Air Sahara at 5/1 is one of the better value angles here, carrying a 69.43 rating — second-best in the field — for trainer Kim Puhl, who also sends out the long shot Vadora, suggesting stable confidence leans toward this one. Luis Antonio Gonzalez gets the call, and the average speed figure of 53 holds up well in this company. If Proud Words stumbles or gets into traffic trouble, Air Sahara is the most likely beneficiary.

show4Charisma in MotionML 4/1

Charisma in Motion sits third on our ratings at 64.68 and draws post 4, which is a workable position in a maiden sprint. Trainer Candace Huffman has a solid 16% win rate with Radio Silent in Race 1 today, showing the barn is active and placing horses well. At 4/1 morning line, Charisma in Motion offers reasonable value for show purposes and trifecta construction in what is admittedly an unpredictable maiden event.

Race 5

6:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Another maiden claiming sprint where H F S Memories leads the ratings but Dublin Time offers a legitimate push as the public's choice — the morning line tells one story, our numbers tell another.

win3H F S MemoriesML 7/2

H F S Memories tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and goes postward at 7/2 — a better number than the 2/1 favorite, which suggests potential overlay value if the board drifts our way. Angel Diaz handles the mount for trainer Justine Eder in what is a confident booking. In maiden company, rating separation at this level often wins races outright, and H F S Memories has enough of a cushion over the rest to warrant the top selection.

place4Dublin TimeML 2/1

Dublin Time is the morning-line chalk at 2/1 with a 79.82 rating — second in the field and not far behind — making it a fully legitimate contender that the public is right to respect. Brandon Tapara and trainer Robert Gorham are sending this one out with obvious confidence. If H F S Memories doesn't fire its best, Dublin Time is the most likely alternative winner, and it's nearly certain to hit the board.

show5MarkawayML 9/5

Markaway at 9/5 is actually the public's second choice despite a 64.50 rating that slots it third among our scores — meaning the market may be slightly overrating this one. Still, Jason Simpson is a steady rider and the Kristina Tumblin barn places horses carefully. The price may compress on the board, but Markaway is a logical show play in a maiden field that could produce a messy result.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Gray Day is a heavy favorite in this claiming mile and the ratings back it up emphatically — the real question is whether the 8/5 price offers enough value or if the exotics are where the money should go.

win2Gray DayML 8/5

Gray Day's 89.12 TrackWiz rating is the highest mark in the field and among the top scores on the entire card today. Erik Barbaran gets the call, and trainer Marco Ccamaque has this horse primed for a route going a flat mile. An 11% career win rate is modest, but our handicapping model is capturing something beyond raw win percentage here — the recent form cycle and speed profile point to a horse ready to dominate this field.

place4Rumble Strip RonML 5/1

Rumble Strip Ron at 5/1 is our clear second choice with a 75.02 rating — a significant gap below Gray Day but well clear of the rest. Jefferson Skerrett handles the mount and the average speed of 54 is the best in the field, including the favorite. If Gray Day encounters any pace pressure or traffic, Rumble Strip Ron is positioned to swoop in and grab the exacta spot at a price that makes the exotic worth playing.

show7Shake the FrostML 4/1

Shake the Frost brings a 63.31 rating and a 20% career win rate to the party at 4/1, making it a legitimate board threat for trainer Timothy Hamm, who also saddles a pair of horses today. Rocco Bowen aboard adds a quality rider to the mix. At that win rate and with Bowen up, this one is a solid show play and a reasonable trifecta inclusion — especially if the top two hook up in a pace duel going a mile.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite isn't our top pick in this 5.5-furlong claiming sprint — Tale of the Lyon at 4/1 holds the edge on our ratings despite Queenofthebuckeye getting the public's money at 2/1.

win1Tale of the LyonML 4/1

Tale of the Lyon leads all horses in this race with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and goes postward at 4/1 — a better price than the 8/5 morning-line second choice, making this our most compelling value angle of the race. Angel Diaz gets the mount for trainer Justine Eder, and a 14% career win rate in a six-horse sprint field is workable. The short 5.5-furlong distance suits a horse with a strong speed profile, and our numbers suggest the public is undervaluing this one relative to the favorite.

place2Driven for SuccessML 8/5

Driven for Success is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 and carries an 83.34 rating — barely a nose behind our top pick numerically. Luis Raul Rivera rides for Jeffrey Radosevich, who is one of the more active trainers on today's card with multiple entries. A 17% career win rate and the public's confidence make this one nearly certain to factor, even if we're sliding it to the place spot based on our slight rating advantage for Tale of the Lyon.

show3National DiamondML 5/1

National Diamond at 5/1 shows a 22% career win rate — the best conversion number in this field — and a 68.10 rating that puts it a clear third on our board. Chelsey Keiser handles the mount for David Wolochuk, and the horse's ability to win at a higher clip than most of its rivals suggests it finds ways to hit the board even when not at its peak. In a sprint where pace can get messy, that kind of consistency is worth backing in your exotics.

Race 8

8:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Commissioner D leads on our ratings but faces a deep allowance field where S'mor Crafty's eye-popping 37% career win rate and Coloryoureggs' strong 23% mark make this a competitive six-furlong test.

win7Commissioner DML 7/2

Commissioner D tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 with a 31% career win rate — that's a remarkable conversion number that speaks to a horse that knows how to close out races. Jose Bracho gets the mount for trainer Justin Radosevich, and the 7/2 morning line represents solid value in a field this competitive. An average speed figure of 54 ties for the best in the race, and the allowance conditions at 6 furlongs are squarely in this horse's wheelhouse.

place2ColoryoureggsML 5/2

Coloryoureggs posts an 81.73 rating and a 23% career win rate for trainer Robert Cline, who also has Elopedatthederby in this field — but our numbers clearly favor this one. Victor Fernandez handles the mount and the horse's consistency suggests it'll be on or near the lead at every call. In an allowance sprint, that kind of tactical flexibility is worth a great deal, and 5/2 is a workable price for the exacta slot.

show8S'mor CraftyML 4/1

S'mor Crafty's 37% career win rate is frankly the standout biographical stat on the entire card today — that is an elite mark for any level of racing. Chelsey Keiser rides for Robert Guciardo, and the 75.90 TrackWiz rating keeps this one solidly in the mix at 4/1. If the pace gets honest up front, S'mor Crafty's ability to convert at a high rate makes it the horse most likely to outrun its rating and steal a piece.

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Bottom line: Thistledown has a workable 8-race card today with legitimate top picks scattered from gate to wire. Start with Red Chili Pepper in Race 1, follow Classy Disposition and Runaway Power through the free races, then let TrackWiz subscribers' full analysis guide you through the premium half of the card — especially Gray Day in Race 6, who posts the best rating of the day. Good luck, play smart, and as always, manage your bankroll.

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