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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — August 24, 2026

August 24, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

It's a pleasant Monday afternoon at Thistledown — 67°F, partly cloudy, and the kind of weather that keeps the dirt track playing honest. Eight races are on the board today, all on the main track, ranging from maiden special weight youngsters finding their footing to allowance horses that know exactly what they're doing. Good variety to work with.

The card leans sprint-heavy, with six races going six furlongs or less, so pace scenario is going to be the name of the game. Early speed can be punishing at Thistledown when the track is playing fast, so we'll be watching which horses figure to get uncontested leads and which ones are set up to close into a contested pace. Today's conditions give us a clean, neutral baseline to work from.

TrackWiz analysis has three races unlocked for all readers today, plus five full premium breakdowns for subscribers. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A nine-horse claiming mile at Thistledown where two horses separate themselves from the pack on ratings, setting up a potential top-heavy result with solid place/show value in the exacta.

win5I Belong FirstML 7/2

I Belong First (No. 5) earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 86.35 and brings a 15% career win rate — one of the better marks in today's race. At 7/2 on the morning line, Jose Bracho gets a horse that profiles as a competent miler on this Thistledown dirt. The combo of the highest rating and an above-average win percentage makes this the most credible top selection in the race.

place1Pride and AttitudeML 9/2

Pride and Attitude (No. 1) comes in with an 80.96 TrackWiz rating, second-best in the field, and Ricardo Feliciano knows this track well. At 9/2 on the morning line, there's real value here if I Belong First gets loose and clears, as this one figures to be fighting for the runner-up spot.

show8Mobil EnsignML 3/1

Mobil Ensign (No. 8) is worth including in exotics as the horse that posts the field's top average speed figure at 54, a tick above most of the competition. At a morning-line favorite price of 3/1, David Haldar gets a mount that's capable of running into the superfecta at minimum — the speed edge over similar horses is a real factor at a mile.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Authoritarian Girl looms as a dominant class standout in this six-furlong claiming sprint, but there's a legitimate secondary battle shaping up for the place and show spots with some overlays in the mix.

win4Authoritarian GirlML 5/2

Authoritarian Girl (No. 4) is a horse that jumps off the page — an 87.81 TrackWiz rating paired with a jaw-dropping 62% career win rate makes this one of the strongest individual profiles you'll see in a Thistledown claimer all season. Luis Gonzalez gets the call and the morning line of 5/2 is fair, though don't be shocked if she gets bet down further. If she fires her A-game, this could get ugly for the field.

place8Lofty CowtownML 4/1

Lofty Cowtown (No. 8) is the logical backup with an 82.31 rating and a solid 25% career win rate, and trainer Justin Radosevich has Jose Bracho in the irons — a pairing that's been active at this meet. If Authoritarian Girl leaves a gap for anything, Lofty Cowtown at 4/1 is the horse most likely to fill it.

show6Waves of LibertyML 10/1

Waves of Liberty (No. 6) is a sneaky show play at 10/1 morning line, carrying a 70.6 rating and a 26% career win percentage for trainer Timothy Hamm. Rocco Bowen gets the mount on a horse that has won at a clip well above the field average among the longshot contenders — there's legitimate show value at that price if you're building an exacta or trifecta underneath.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden special weight sprint at 5½ furlongs where most entrants are without wins and several lack published speed figures, making this a genuine puzzle with tight ratings separating the top half of the field.

win5ReachingforthestarML 5/2

Reachingforthestar (No. 5) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 57.5 and carries a 53 average speed figure, tying her with a couple of others but giving her the edge on overall score. Trainer Rodney Faulkner puts David Haldar up, and at 5/2 morning line this is the logical top choice in a race where no one has a dominant edge. Maiden races are tricky, but the combination of highest rating and published speed gives this one the clearest form profile.

place2OaklynML 7/2

Oaklyn (No. 2) is close behind at 55.83 and also shows a 53 average speed figure — statistically, there's barely daylight between her and the top pick. Chelsey Keiser rides for trainer David Wolochuk, and at 7/2 the morning line gives a fair return for a horse that could easily flip the result if Reachingforthestar doesn't fire.

show8Nina From PasadenaML 4/1

Nina From Pasadena (No. 8) rates third in the field at 55.0 even without a published speed figure, which tells you the TrackWiz model is seeing something in her underlying work. Trainer Justin Radosevich has been sending out live horses at this meet, and Jose Bracho up at 4/1 morning line makes her an intriguing exotics play for a horse with upside we can't fully measure yet.

The three free races today cover a nice cross-section of the card. In Race 1 at a mile, I Belong First (7/2 ML, 86.35 rating) stands out as the distance specialist in what shapes up as a pace-friendly setup for closers. Race 2 tightens things up at six furlongs, where Authoritarian Girl (5/2 ML, 87.81 rating) posts our second-highest free-race score of the day — a horse worth watching closely at a fair morning line price. Then Race 3 throws us into maiden special weight territory, where Reachingforthestar (5/2 ML) is our top selection in a wide-open field where first-time starters and lightly raced runners can spring surprises.

One thread connecting these free picks: in sprint and middle-distance dirt races at Thistledown, horses with early tactical speed who can rate just off the pace have been especially dangerous. Keep that in mind as you dig into the free analysis for each of these three races.

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Race 4

6:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short and sharp five-and-a-half-furlong claiming sprint with a fascinating dynamic: the highest-rated horse goes off at 2/1 while the morning-line favorite is actually the THIRD-best on TrackWiz ratings, setting up a potential upset scenario worth watching.

win1It's OfficialML 2/1

It's Official (No. 1) leads all horses here with an 83.43 TrackWiz rating, a 26% career win rate, and the best average speed figure in the field at 55. Luis Batista takes the mount for trainer Lorenzo Juarez, and at 2/1 this is a deserving favorite who should control much of the pace conversation at 5½ furlongs. The combination of speed and rating makes this a confident top selection.

place2Reckless L JML 8/1

Reckless L J (No. 2) at 8/1 is a legitimate overlay in the place spot — that morning line feels generous for a horse with a 79.79 rating and a 24% career win rate. Trainer Jeffrey Radosevich pairs with Luis Rivera, and the 54 average speed figure keeps this one in range. If the pace gets honest early, a closer like this could easily run into second.

show3This TimeML 8/5

This Time (No. 3) is the morning-line favorite at 8/5 but actually rates third in the field behind our top two picks — that's the value angle working against you if you're just following the tote. That said, a 78.39 rating with a 55 average speed and trainer Michael Maker in the program means the connections are serious. She runs into our show slot as a hedge and for exotic coverage.

Race 5

6:50 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming sprint where the morning line underestimates the top-rated horse, creating potential value at 9/2 against a 2/1 shot that ranks second on our model — pace figures to be honest with multiple speed types in the field.

win4Vodka N GingeraleML 9/2

Vodka N Gingerale (No. 4) is our top-rated horse at 84.9 and yet goes off at 9/2 on the morning line, making this arguably the best value play on today's card. She carries a 25% career win rate, posts a 55 average speed figure tied for best in the field, and trainer John Steve Cannon puts Chelsey Keiser up — a rider with a solid book on the day. If the pace heats up early between some of the speed types, this one could be perfectly placed.

place5ScrimperML 2/1

Scrimper (No. 5) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and earns it with a 78.12 rating and a strong 34% career win percentage — one of the highest in the race. Victor Fernandez rides for Richard Zielinski, and with a 55 average speed this horse has the raw ability to lead or stalk. The rating gap between Scrimper and our top pick is real, but don't sleep on this one if Vodka N Gingerale has an off day.

show1MellifluousML 6/1

Mellifluous (No. 1) rounds out our top three at 77.29, and Rocco Bowen is a name worth noting in the irons for trainer Kim Puhl. At 6/1 morning line with a 54 average speed, this horse represents solid exotics value — particularly in trifectas where you're looking for a double-digit-odds show horse to juice the payoff.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A competitive nine-horse claiming sprint where the morning-line chalk isn't the top-rated horse, and a 6/1 shot leads our model — exactly the kind of race where the exacta and trifecta can pay handsomely.

win3Gunner GabrielML 6/1

Gunner Gabriel (No. 3) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 despite being listed at 6/1 on the morning line — that's a meaningful disconnect worth exploiting. Trainer Johanna Urieta sends out this horse with a 28% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure that matches the competitive mid-range of this field. DeShawn Parker gets the call, and if this one is as live as our model suggests, 6/1 is genuinely generous.

place6LiberateML 5/2

Liberate (No. 6) comes in at 79.12 on TrackWiz with a 32% career win rate — one of the stronger win percentages in a field full of proven horses. Rocco Bowen up for Timothy Hamm, and at 5/2 morning line this is the public's second choice with our analysis backing up that confidence. Whether Gunner Gabriel wins or not, Liberate figures to be in the mix late.

show2Eagle NestML 4/1

Eagle Nest (No. 2) rates third in the field at 77.25 and carries a 33% career win percentage — among the best win rates in today's race. Erik Barbaran rides for Marco Ibarra, and at 4/1 this horse offers a compelling exotics angle as a legitimate win threat who slots into our show position. If the pace scenario scrambles the top two, Eagle Nest is the most likely beneficiary.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A seven-horse allowance sprint where the top TrackWiz-rated horse goes at generous odds against a morning-line favorite that rates third in our model — the public and our analysis aren't seeing this race the same way.

win1All Pepped UpML 7/2

All Pepped Up (No. 1) leads the field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and is listed at 7/2 — a solid overlay when you consider that the morning-line favorite sits more than 16 points below on our scale. Erik Barbaran gets the mount for Robert Gorham, and a 20% career win rate at the allowance level gives this horse a legitimate credentials argument. With a 53 average speed figure, the raw pace numbers are competitive.

place6Electric EdenML 5/2

Electric Eden (No. 6) is our place pick at 78.81 and is actually the morning-line second choice at 5/2, making this one of the more aligned spots between our model and the market today. Brandon Tapara rides for Richard Zielinski, and a 54 average speed figure — a tick above our win pick — means this horse might even have an argument for the top spot depending on how the race is run. She's a logical exacta key underneath if you're going against All Pepped Up.

show7Buckeye BombshellML 8/5

Buckeye Bombshell (No. 7) is the morning-line chalk at 8/5 but rates third in our model at 69.49 — another case where the public's money and our ratings diverge. DeShawn Parker rides for Kinnon LaRose, and a 14% career win rate at the allowance level is modest but not disqualifying. Her price likely won't be much value if bet down further, but she warrants show coverage in exotics given the trainer's competence at this level.

Race 8

8:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint where one horse stands well clear of the field on our model and also shows an average speed advantage, but a couple of supporting players at value prices make the exotics interesting.

win5Pleasure PearlML 2/1

Pleasure Pearl (No. 5) is a standout: she tops the TrackWiz field at 88.54 — a number that would be competitive in allowance company, let alone maiden claiming. A 54 average speed figure and morning-line favoritism at 2/1 suggest the market agrees, though the rating margin over the rest of the field is significant enough that the 2/1 may still be worth playing. Erik Barbaran rides for Megan Fadlovich in what shapes up as a wire-to-wire or stalk-and-pounce effort.

place6Destiny's TotML 9/2

Destiny's Tot (No. 6) is our place pick at 79.44 — a solid second-best in the field despite sitting nearly 9 points behind our top choice. Alexander Chavez gets the mount for trainer Oscar Romero, and a 53 average speed figure keeps this one in the competitive range for a second-place finish. At 9/2 morning line, she's worth including in exactas as the most logical runner-up if Pleasure Pearl dictates.

show9Oak MirnaML 12/1

Oak Mirna (No. 9) is a legitimate show-value play at 12/1 morning line with a 69.87 TrackWiz rating — third-best in the field and a meaningful gap above the rest. Fernando Salazar Becerra rides for trainer Jose Atala, and a 54 average speed figure matches some of the top horses on raw pace. If you're building a trifecta around Pleasure Pearl and Destiny's Tot, Oak Mirna at a potential double-digit show price is exactly the type of value that inflates exotics payouts.

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Eight races, clean conditions, and a card with genuine top-to-bottom interest — Thistledown is delivering today. Authoritarian Girl in Race 2 and I Belong First in Race 1 headline the free plays, while Pleasure Pearl (Race 8, 88.54 rating) is the marquee selection for subscribers. Don't sleep on the Gunner Gabriel price angle in Race 6 either. Full card breakdowns, pace maps, and exotic strategies are waiting for subscribers — check out /pricing to unlock everything before post time. Good luck at the windows.

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