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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — August 20, 2026

August 20, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

It's a pleasant Thursday afternoon at Thistledown — 75 degrees, partly cloudy skies, and a dirt surface that should be playing fast and fair all day. Eight races on the board, all on the main track, and the conditions are about as cooperative as you're going to get in late August in Northeast Ohio.

All eight races are claiming or maiden claiming affairs, which means we're deep in the weeds of class drops, barn moves, and horses trying to find their level. That's exactly where sharp handicapping pays off. TrackWiz analysis has identified strong top picks across the full card, with three races available free and five more behind the premium curtain.

The pace scenario shapes up as a pivotal factor today — several sprints figure to be hotly contested early, which could set things up nicely for closers later in the card. Keep that in mind as we walk through the day.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A wide-open mile on the dirt where the top two TrackWiz-rated horses carry a significant gap over the rest of the field — but at least three others have the morning line to complicate things.

win2Guns and ShipsML 9/2

Guns and Ships tops our TrackWiz ratings at 84.9, a number that stands well clear of the field in a race where the next-best contender is Axcel at 75.15. Luis Antonio Gonzalez gets the call for trainer Valerie K. Shanyfelt, and the 9/2 morning line represents genuine value given the horse's rating advantage. At a mile on the dirt, pace scenarios can shuffle results, but a horse this far ahead on our model doesn't need a perfect trip to get the job done. The 14% career win rate is respectable in claiming company and adds confidence to the top selection.

place8AxcelML 4/1

Axcel draws the 8-post for trainer Jacinto Lopez with Mauro Cedillo in the irons, and his 75.15 TrackWiz rating makes him a clear second-best in this spot. The 4/1 morning line is fair for a horse with a matching 53 average speed figure and a 10% career win percentage — he profiles as a solid exacta partner underneath Guns and Ships. In a nine-horse field at a mile, closers often find room late, and Axcel's rating edge over the lower half of the field is meaningful.

show4Game PerformerML 5/1

Game Performer (No. 4) slots in nicely as a show play at 5/1, with Erik Barbaran up for trainer Michael L. Rone. His 69.81 rating and 53 average speed figure put him in a cluster with the top contenders, and an 8% career win rate in claiming company suggests he hits the board more often than he wins. At 5/1, he's a solid trifecta anchor for bettors looking to build out exotics.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The six-furlong opener for fillies and mares looks like a two-horse battle at the top — but a pair of mid-field prices have the figures to crash the party if the pace sets up right.

win7MaleahML 2/1

Maleah heads into this race as both the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and the top-rated horse on the TrackWiz model at 88.54 — that's a commanding lead over the field in what is otherwise a competitive claiming sprint. Jose A. Bracho, who has been active at this meet, gets the mount for trainer Susan L. Anderson. Maleah's 14% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure give her the profile of a horse that shows up reliably, and in a six-furlong dirt sprint, gate-to-wire types with her numbers typically don't need much encouragement. She's the play.

place6Forever FlowingML 5/1

Forever Flowing at 5/1 is where the value lives in this race. Her 83.67 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the field and Fernando Salazar Becerra — one of the meet's busier jockeys — takes the assignment for trainer Richard Zielinski. What stands out is the 18% career win rate, which is genuinely strong in this class of claimers and suggests she converts at a higher rate than her odds imply. A place bet here at 5/1 is a strong play.

show5Secret ValentineML 5/2

Secret Valentine (No. 5) rounds out the top three on our model with an 81.41 rating, and Rocco Bowen is a capable hand for trainer Timothy E. Hamm. She's priced at 5/2 on the morning line, which makes her the second choice, and while that limits pure win-bet value, she's a reliable show ticket in a race where the top three our model identifies are separated by meaningful rating gaps from the rest. The 11% career win rate is solid and the 52 average speed figure is on par with the top horses.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden claimers are always unpredictable — these horses haven't broken their maiden for a reason — but a short field of six at six furlongs does create a cleaner pace picture, and one horse stands out sharply on the numbers.

win3EnzitoML 2/1

Enzito is the standout in this maiden claiming sprint, carrying the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54 alongside a 53 average speed figure that matches the fastest horses in the race. Jefferson Skerrett rides for his trainer Jeffrey Skerrett — a family barn connection that often signals a horse is ready to fire its best. The 2/1 morning line is short but fair given the rating advantage, and in a maiden field where none of these horses have broken their duck yet, the horse with the clearest edge on ability gets the nod.

place5GamayML 9/2

Gamay at 9/2 is the most intriguing value play on the board. Trained by Johanna Urieta, she carries an 82.9 TrackWiz rating and a 53 average speed figure — both among the top marks in this field — with Angel I. Diaz up in the irons. In maiden company, the difference between a winner and a runner-up is often a matter of execution on the day, and Gamay profiles as a horse that should run a big race even if she can't quite reel in Enzito. At 9/2, the place price could be generous.

show4Orb CityML 8/1

Orb City at 8/1 is worth a look as the third piece in your exotics. His 78.79 rating is third-best in this field and Humberto Haldar has been getting horses to run well at this meet. The 52 average speed figure is solid and trainer Ivan Vazquez doesn't enter horses spotted to lose in these spots. At 8/1 morning line odds, any maiden with legitimate figures at that price deserves a line in your trifecta.

The first three races give everyone a solid foundation to work with. Guns and Ships opens the card in a one-mile claiming route at a juicy 9/2 morning line — this is your value play of the free trio, and a TrackWiz rating of 84.9 suggests there's real ability here at a price the morning line alone doesn't fully reflect. In Race 2, Maleah comes in as a 2/1 morning line choice over six furlongs with a strong 88.54 rating — near the top of the card — and figures to be a key single in any multi-race wagers built around the early sequence. Race 3 brings maiden claiming action, and Enzito matches Maleah's 88.54 rating, making back-to-back races with elite scores a notable angle worth noting for exacta and double players.

With a clean, fast-playing surface expected all afternoon, speed figures should translate reliably today — no slop or give to discount recent numbers. The common thread through the free picks is horses whose TrackWiz ratings stand out clearly from their fields, which on a day like today typically means shorter trips to the winner's circle.

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Race 4

6:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

This is a locked-and-loaded mile with a clear class standout at the top, but the pace scenario could be lively with several early-speed types mixing it up from the gate.

win4InchonML 2/1

Inchon is the most compelling horse on today's entire card through four races — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating is elite in this claiming field, and his 56 average speed figure is a full two points faster than the next-best horse (Bucket List at 54). Humberto Haldar gets the mount for trainer Justine Eder, and importantly, Eder also saddles Smash in this race, meaning the barn is well-represented and likely has Inchon as their main hope. At 2/1 on the morning line, he's not a longshot, but the separation in raw figures is the kind of gap that holds up in the real running. The 9% career win rate is modest, but the speed numbers say he's capable of performing at a level well above this field.

place2Gut InstinctML 9/5

Gut Instinct at 9/5 is the morning-line second choice and profiles as a solid exacta underneath Inchon. Jefferson Skerrett rides for trainer Jeffrey Skerrett — the barn has been active on this card — and the 78.76 TrackWiz rating is second-best among the six-horse field. A 13% career win rate and 52 average speed figure suggest a horse that finds the board regularly at this level. If Inchon encounters any traffic trouble at a mile, Gut Instinct is right there to pick up the pieces.

show1SmashML 6/1

Smash (No. 1) is worth including in the show position despite a 69.01 rating that falls short of the top two. Angel I. Diaz takes the mount and trainer Justine Eder — who also has Inchon in this race — knows this horse's form well. The standout stat for Smash is a 17% career win rate, which is the highest win percentage in this field and signals a horse that knows how to get to the wire first when conditions line up. A show ticket at 6/1 is reasonable value for exotic builders.

Race 5

6:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Five and a half furlongs on the dirt sets up as a pace duel between several speed-heavy types, but our model sees a clear top two that separate themselves nicely from the rest of the field.

win4Atlas FallsML 2/1

Atlas Falls draws the pivotal inside post at No. 4 and carries an 86.96 TrackWiz rating that leads this field by a meaningful margin. Angel I. Diaz has been picking up quality mounts at this meet for trainer Justine Eder, who also won our confidence in Race 4 today. A 10% career win rate and 53 average speed figure are solid benchmarks for a five-and-a-half-furlong sprint, and at 2/1 on the morning line, Atlas Falls is correctly installed as the top choice. In a sprint distance, the pace scenario is crucial — horses with the numbers to sustain speed over the short trip tend to hold form, and Atlas Falls fits that profile.

place6Professor NickML 9/2

Professor Nick at 9/2 is the sneaky value play in this race. His 84.9 TrackWiz rating is nearly as high as Atlas Falls — just two points back — and Victor R. Fernandez takes the mount for trainer Richard Zielinski, who also trained Forever Flowing earlier today. A 9% career win rate with a 52 average speed figure makes him competitive on paper, and the 9/2 morning line is a fair reflection of a horse that should be right there at the wire. If the pace gets hot early, Professor Nick could be the one picking up the pieces.

show1Spectacular d'OroML 3/1

Spectacular d'Oro (No. 1) brings a 22% career win rate into this race — the highest in the field — and Fernando Salazar Becerra is in the saddle for trainer David Wolochuk. His 79.19 TrackWiz rating puts him third on our model, and while he may not be a win bet at 3/1 with two superior horses above him on the figures, that career win percentage is the kind of stat that shows up in the money columns more often than not. A show ticket at 3/1 adds him cheaply to any exotic ticket.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Five and a half furlongs brings out a deep, competitive field where the TrackWiz model sees a clear top choice hiding in plain sight at a price that makes this race a genuine betting opportunity.

win6Eileen's DesperadoML 7/2

Eileen's Desperado is the most value-rich win play of the afternoon — an 86.35 TrackWiz rating that leads this eight-horse field, yet she's posted at 7/2 on the morning line as the third betting choice behind Picaro (2/1) and Admiral Nelson (4/1). Erik Barbaran gets the call for trainer Loren Huepenbecker, who also saddles Heart of an Angel in this race. That 18% career win rate is tied for the highest in the field, and a 54 average speed figure matches the best horses in the sprint. Getting the top-rated horse at 7/2 is exactly the kind of overlay our TrackWiz model is designed to find.

place5Admiral NelsonML 4/1

Admiral Nelson (No. 5) sits second on our ratings at 76.15 and draws Fernando Salazar Becerra for trainer Raquel A. Castro. A 10% career win rate and 54 average speed figure slot him in perfectly as a place contender, and at 4/1 he offers real value in the exacta. He's the horse most likely to benefit if the pace gets contentious early, as several speed types in this field could set things up for a closer to run them down.

show1PicaroML 2/1

Picaro (No. 1) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with a 73.86 TrackWiz rating, which actually makes him the third-best horse on our model — a mild overlay in reverse. Alexander Chavez takes the mount for trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza, and a 54 average speed figure keeps him competitive. The 6% career win rate is the one number that gives pause on him as a win choice, but at 2/1 he's almost certain to hit the board, making him a reliable show anchor even if our model suggests he's overbet to win.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A six-horse mile where one horse has a dramatic rating advantage over the field — the question isn't whether he's the best, but whether the 3/1 price reflects enough value in a race with a hard-nosed pace scenario.

win3Remember the FearML 3/1

Remember the Fear is the standout in Race 7 — an 87.08 TrackWiz rating that towers over the next-best horse, Roundball Rock at 65.01, a gap of more than 22 points. Brandon Tapara takes the mount for trainer Saul M. Morales, who also runs Skibidi Rizz in this race, giving them two arrows in the quiver. A 13% career win rate and 53 average speed figure are consistent with a horse at the top of its class in this field, and 3/1 on the morning line is a fair price for what shapes up as a clear form advantage. When our model sees a gap this large in a six-horse field, it's hard to argue against the top choice.

place4Roundball RockML 2/1

Roundball Rock at 2/1 is actually the morning-line favorite but ranks second on our model at 65.01 — an interesting disconnect worth noting. Victor R. Fernandez rides for trainer Oscar Romero, and the 54 average speed figure is the best in the field by a tick. His 11% career win rate and competitive figure make him a legitimate exacta partner, and at 2/1 the place price might be the smarter ticket than trying to win with him outright against a horse rated 22 points higher.

show6Stormin'unclejackML 5/1

Stormin'unclejack (No. 6) catches the eye at 5/1 with a 23% career win rate — the highest by a wide margin in this field and a stat that demands respect. Humberto Haldar takes the mount for trainer Rodney C. Faulkner, and a 54 average speed figure ties him for the top mark in the race. His 50.67 TrackWiz rating trails the top two significantly, but a horse that wins nearly a quarter of the time isn't to be dismissed lightly in a six-horse field. If pace collapses ahead of him, he has the experience to take advantage.

Race 8

8:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The nightcap brings a full field to the six-furlong dirt strip, with our model identifying a standout at a juicy price — while the rest of the field is tightly bunched and full of intrigue for exotic players.

win2Mo Mo LightningML 4/1

Mo Mo Lightning opens at 4/1 on the morning line but packs the top TrackWiz rating in this race at 85.62 — a number that stands well above the second-best contender, He's My Boy at 65.35. Mauro Cedillo gets the mount for trainer Megan Fadlovich, and the 12% career win rate combined with a 52 average speed figure gives this horse a solid foundation. At 4/1 with a decisive rating advantage, Mo Mo Lightning is the kind of overlay that makes the nightcap worth staying around for. Sprint specialists often find their form on dirt late in the card, and the figures support a strong effort here.

place7He's My BoyML 9/2

He's My Boy at 9/2 is an intriguing place play from trainer Rodney C. Faulkner, who also has Stormin'unclejack in Race 7 tonight. David J. Haldar gets the call and the 65.35 TrackWiz rating makes this horse the clear second choice on our model — even if the morning line doesn't quite reflect that. A 52 average speed figure and 5% career win rate suggest a horse that runs consistently without always getting to the front, which is the profile of a reliable place horse in a full sprint field.

show5Affair to RememberML 6/1

Affair to Remember (No. 5) at 6/1 rounds out our pick trio and represents a legitimate exotic play. Noel Vigil takes the mount for trainer Richard L. Genovese, and a 60.21 TrackWiz rating puts her third on our model — just behind He's My Boy. A 53 average speed figure ties her with several of the top horses in this field, and the 6/1 morning line means she's being underestimated relative to her figures. As a trifecta piece in the finale, she adds value without breaking the bank.

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Bottom line: Thistledown is serving up a clean, manageable eight-race card on a beautiful August afternoon. Guns and Ships is the value play to watch, Maleah and Enzito are the high-confidence free picks, and the premium card is loaded with pace-driven angles and exotic opportunities across the stretch run. Subscribers have everything they need — and if you're not yet a member, head to /pricing and get in on the full breakdown before post time.

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