Thistledown Picks & Predictions — August 17, 2026

Laketown Elly is a stone-cold place play at 8/5 — her 37% career win rate is the best in this field and signals a horse that consistently competes at the top of her class. Luis Alberto Batista rides for trainer Craig Sweeting, and with a rating of 88.36 that's virtually identical to the top pick, finishing second wouldn't be a surprise at all. If the pace sets up for a closer, she could reverse the order entirely.

Midnight Goddess at 4/1 provides solid trifecta value with a 74.18 rating that puts her clearly ahead of the remaining field. Trainer Hugo Andrade's runner carries a 17% career win rate and has speed to match the top two — her avgSpeed of 53 is tied with Queen Kitty for the top figure. At morning line odds that reflect some market respect, she's the right horse to round out your tickets.

Work'n On a Buzz is a fascinating secondary play — she actually matches The Miracle Kiut's 22% career win rate and leads the field with a 54 average speed figure, yet opens at 8/5. Trainer Robert C. Cline puts her in a spot where she's capable of winning outright, and if The Miracle Kiut draws traffic or gets caught wide, Work'n On a Buzz has the raw speed to capitalize. She's a strong place bet and arguably deserves more win consideration than her second-billing suggests.

Chica Chula at 4/1 rounds out the exotic tickets as a legitimate show horse with a 58.71 rating that puts her third in the field. She posts a 52 average speed figure for trainer Oscar Romero and represents the kind of mid-pack runner who can sneak into third when the top two horses create a pace battle up front. Alexander Chavez has experience navigating route races and should keep her in a good position throughout.

Rollin Freedom comes in at 4/1 with the second-highest rating in the field at 84.98 and a 53 average speed figure that keeps her competitive through the stretch of a 5 1/2 furlong sprint. Jefferson Skerrett handles the mount for Saul M. Morales, and with a 15% career win rate she's a horse who finds ways to hit the board consistently. If Siofra handles the front end, Rollin Freedom is your most likely exacta partner.

My Kinda Party checks in at 3/1 on the morning line with an 82.58 rating and leads the field with a 54 average speed figure alongside Siofra. Her 15% career win rate is modest, but Fernando Salazar Becerra is aggressive from the gate and could have her stalking the leaders in what projects to be a contested pace scenario. She's the right horse to complete your trifecta at a price that offers some return.

Crackle at 3/1 is nearly inseparable from Quick Recovery on the TrackWiz scale — an 86.62 rating is just 1.19 points back — and trainer Khadeem Galloway puts her in a race where she clearly belongs. Luis Alberto Batista rides, and with a 15% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure, she has every reason to finish second if Quick Recovery gets loose on the front end. Exacta tickets connecting these two make a lot of sense.

Anotherhope at 8/1 is a legitimate value play for exotics with a 60.31 rating and a 17% career win rate that's among the better supporting figures in this field. She matches Crackle's 53 average speed figure and trainer Shane Meyers has shown an ability to place horses in spots where they can outrun their odds. At a morning line that invites overlay, she's the right horse to include in your trifectas without much guilt.

Mark My Words is the horse in this field that jumps off the page — a 50% career win rate is extraordinary at any level, and Erik Barbaran rides for Robert M. Gorham in what could be a bounce-back effort. His 84.24 TrackWiz rating slots him just behind Saving Heart, but that win percentage says this is a horse accustomed to the winner's circle. At 5/2, he may end up the public choice, and he deserves to be.

Trouble in Motown rounds out the top three with an 80.39 rating and his own elite win percentage — 44% career wins is elite company even in an allowance field this sharp. Trainer Justin Radosevich also saddles Mr. Bogan, but Trouble in Motown is clearly the stable's main shot with David J. Haldar up. At 3/1, he's got the pedigree and form to hit the board even if Saving Heart and Mark My Words handle the top two spots.

Electa comes in at 5/2 with a 78.85 rating — second-best in the field — and trainer David Wolochuk has a strong track record identifying maidens ready to fire. Chelsey Keiser gets the mount, and despite no recorded career wins (as expected in a maiden race), her 53 average speed figure keeps her competitive with the top two. She's the natural exacta partner for Gaga's Girl and could find herself on the right end of a pace collapse if the field goes out too fast.

Tiz Magnificent at 8/1 is a sneaky trifecta option — a 66.11 rating and a 53 average speed figure give her a legitimate profile, and trainer James Canegata sends her out with Elijah Greenidge making the most of an outside perspective on this race. In a maiden field at a mile where stamina separates horses late, her speed figure standing up over the route distance is the key question — and our analysis thinks she belongs in the exotics at this price.