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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — August 13, 2026

August 13, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

This card ran on August 13, 2026.

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Best bets at Thistledown, August 13, 2026

Race 15Gypsy KatML 3/112:50 PM EDT

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Thistledown rolls out an 8-race all-dirt card on Thursday, August 13, and the conditions are about as cooperative as you could ask for mid-August in Northeast Ohio — cloudy skies, 78°F, and no rain in the picture. That kind of mild, stable weather is a handicapper's friend: no excuses, no wild track bias shifts, just horses doing their thing on a surface that should play fair all afternoon.

The card is heavy on Maiden Special Weight action — six of eight races carry MSW conditions, which means plenty of first-timers and lightly raced runners where trainer intent and morning-line moves can tell you a lot. Tucked into the mix are two Allowance spots, including a one-miler in Race 4 that gives us a rare route test at this sprint-heavy oval. Our TrackWiz ratings span a wide range today, from the mid-60s in Race 2 all the way up to 89.12 for Race 8's top pick, Moonlighter — the highest-rated horse on the entire card.

Three races are open to all readers, with full breakdowns available. The remaining five are part of our premium package. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint where TrackWiz ratings separate a clear top-three from the rest of the field — but with all horses at zero career wins, upsets are always lurking.

win5Gypsy KatML 3/1

Gypsy Kat stands out as the class of this field with a TrackWiz rating of 78.24 — more than 20 points clear of the next rival. Trainer Johanna Urieta sends her out with jockey Deshawn L. Parker, and the 3/1 morning line makes her a fair price rather than an overbacked chalk. At 5½ furlongs on dirt, the pace should set up for her to stalk and kick, and that rating edge is hard to ignore in a field where no one has broken their maiden yet.

place2YoungandfreeML 2/1

Youngandfree checks in as the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and backs it up with a 58.33 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 52. Trainer Kristina M. Tumblin has her in a good spot, and Erik Barbaran is a reliable pilot in these maiden sprints. She's got the profile of a horse that wants to put in a clean, professional effort right away — she's a solid inclusion in exactas underneath Gypsy Kat.

show9All That SassML 9/2

All That Sass at 9/2 is the third piece of this exacta/trifecta puzzle, posting a 54.17 rating that slots neatly behind the top two. David J. Haldar gets the call for trainer Justin Radosevich, and her average speed of 51 keeps her competitive at this maiden level. She's worth tossing in your trifecta tickets as a horse who could benefit if the top pair beats each other up.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Lowells Legacy tops the TrackWiz ratings but goes off at a generous morning-line price, creating a compelling value dynamic against a morning-line favorite who'll attract heavy public action.

win4Lowells LegacyML 5/1

Lowells Legacy earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 67.66 despite being listed at 5/1 on the morning line — that's the kind of gap TrackWiz analysis loves to exploit. Jockey Humberto Haldar pairs with trainer Jeff Fletcher, and with an average speed figure of 52, he matches the field's best. In a maiden sprint where the public will likely gravitate toward Everynowandthen, Lowells Legacy offers real value if he replicates his best efforts.

place1EverynowandthenML 9/5

Everynowandthen is the morning-line favorite at 9/5, and a 58.67 rating with an average speed of 52 backs up that favoritism. T. D. Houghton rides for trainer Danny R. Bird, a combination worth tracking. The public may push her below fair value, but she's solid enough to fill the place spot — especially if Lowells Legacy clears off on the front end.

show7Dublin TimeML 5/2

Dublin Time at 5/2 rounds out the top three with a 57.5 rating and an average speed of 52, making him statistically on par with the favorite. Brandon Tapara takes the mount for trainer Robert M. Gorham, and the 5/2 price is workable for a horse this close in the ratings. He's a natural fit for trifecta coverage as a horse who should have enough early foot to stay involved.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Our three free races — Races 1, 2, and 3 — all come in the early part of the card and share a common thread: maiden dirt sprints where pace scenario is everything. At Thistledown, the rail can be a weapon in the early furlongs, and horses that can slot in behind the speed without burning too much gas are worth a close look. Jasper Valley stands out as the highest-rated free pick at 87.81 in Race 3 (5 furlongs, morning line 5/2), and our analysis likes the profile. Gypsy Kat opens the card as the Race 1 top pick at 3/1 with a solid 78.24 rating, while Lowells Legacy is an interesting 5/1 overlay angle in Race 2 — lower rating, but that price invites a second look for players chasing value early.

The pace setup across all three early sprints looks relatively honest, which tends to favor horses with tactical speed over pure front-runners who might get squeezed on a tighter track like Thistledown. No wild surface curveballs today — the mild conditions should keep things straightforward and reward the most talented horses in each field.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

Jasper Valley dominates the TrackWiz ratings at nearly 30 points clear of the next horse, setting up as a potential single in multi-race wagers — but Sharon's Wish shows the best raw speed figure in the field.

win1Jasper ValleyML 5/2

Jasper Valley is the standout on paper with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest in this field by a wide margin — and trainer Timothy E. Hamm puts him in here at 5/2 alongside jockey Rocco Bowen. His average speed figure of 54 is excellent for this maiden level, and Bowen is a rider who knows how to get horses into the clear in sprint races. This is a race where our analysis says you can lean hard on the top selection.

place2Sharon's WishML 9/5

Sharon's Wish is worth noting because she actually posts the best average speed figure in the field at 55, even though her 58.67 rating trails Jasper Valley significantly. John McKee rides for trainer Robert C. Cline, who doubles up in this race with It's All Mischief. If Sharon's Wish can translate that raw speed into race shape at 5 furlongs, she's a legitimate place contender and should be on all your exotics.

show7SnitchML 7/2

Snitch at 7/2 checks in with a 55.83 rating and is piloted by Erik Barbaran — one of the more active riders at Thistledown — for trainer Robert M. Gorham. His average speed of 53 puts him right in the mix with the mid-tier of this field, and the 7/2 price makes him a worthwhile show ticket and trifecta piece. He's the logical safety net if the top two encounter any traffic.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

2:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

The first allowance on the card features experienced winners clashing over a mile on dirt — Redden leads the TrackWiz ratings, but P J's Boy brings an eye-catching 37% career win rate into the equation.

win2ReddenML 3/1

Redden tops the TrackWiz ratings in this allowance field at 80.33 and goes postward at a fair 3/1 morning line with Mauro Cedillo in the irons for trainer Robert C. Cline. His average speed figure of 53 is among the field's best, and while his career win percentage sits at 10%, the overall rating package is the strongest in the field. At a mile on dirt, Cedillo will look to rate him off the pace and get a powerful late run.

place4Sammy's HaloML 2/1

Sammy's Halo at 2/1 is the morning-line favorite and comes in with a 76.17 TrackWiz rating — a legitimate threat to Redden. Erik Barbaran takes the mount for Jeffrey A. Radosevich, and while a 7% career win rate isn't flashy, the rating says this horse performs at a high level. She's a strong place horse and the kind of contender who could flip the result if Redden gets into trouble on the first turn.

show7SciotoML 12/1

Scioto is the best value angle in this race — a 73.96 TrackWiz rating at 12/1 on the morning line is a glaring disconnect. Trainer Robert C. Cline doubles up here alongside Redden, which is interesting barn management. His 14% career win rate and average speed figure of 52 say he's competitive, and that price means any trifecta you build around him will pay handsomely if he runs his race.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

2:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Native Lucci sits atop a loaded maiden field where three horses clear 80 on the TrackWiz scale, making this one of the most competitive maiden races on the card.

win4Native LucciML 5/2

Native Lucci earns an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest in Race 5 — and goes to the gate at 5/2 with David J. Haldar aboard for trainer Rodney C. Faulkner. His average speed figure of 53 is solid, and the Faulkner-Haldar combo is one to track at this level. In a 5½-furlong sprint, Native Lucci looks like the horse with the most complete profile, and our analysis makes her the clear top pick.

place5Sweet VivianML 4/1

Sweet Vivian is right on Native Lucci's heels with an 80.68 TrackWiz rating, and at 4/1 she offers genuine value. Humberto Haldar rides for trainer Joseph M. Poole, and her average speed of 51 gives her a comfortable baseline in this sprint. If Native Lucci faces any pace pressure, Sweet Vivian has the rating and the energy to swoop in for the place — she's a key piece in all your exotics.

show1Delta MarieML 3/1

Delta Marie at 3/1 is the morning-line co-favorite despite ranking third in TrackWiz ratings at 56.67. Luis Antonio Gonzalez gets the call for trainer Kim A. Puhl, and her average speed figure of 52 keeps her honest. She's the kind of horse that attracts public money based on connections and will likely firm up at the windows, but our analysis says fade her in win and use her cautiously in the show hole of trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 6

3:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Rivers Run Fast and Dreamliner's Kid form a compelling top-two, but My Paisan lurks at 6/1 with a rating that makes the morning-line price look like a gift — this race sets up for a legitimate trifecta battle.

win8Rivers Run FastML 5/2

Rivers Run Fast tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and gets the nod as our top selection at 5/2 — a fair price for the class of this field. Brandon Tapara rides for trainer Loren Huepenbecker, and an average speed figure of 52 gives him a solid foundation in a 5½-furlong maiden sprint. The rating edge is meaningful in a field like this, and Tapara is capable of finding the right spots in traffic.

place1Dreamliner's KidML 9/5

Dreamliner's Kid is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 and backs it up with an 83.15 TrackWiz rating — only a few ticks behind Rivers Run Fast. Rocco Bowen gets the call for trainer Dale Carrington, and his average speed figure of 54 is actually the best in the race. If he breaks sharply and establishes position, he's entirely capable of reversing this order — use him on top in exacta boxes as well.

show5My PaisanML 6/1

My Paisan at 6/1 is the value play in Race 6, sitting third in TrackWiz ratings at 78.92 while being largely overlooked by the morning line. Trainer Tina Casalinova sends her out with Chelsey Keiser in the irons, and an average speed figure of 52 says she can keep pace in this sprint. The 6/1 price on a horse with a near-80 rating is exactly the kind of overlay our analysis hunts for in exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

3:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short-field allowance sprint where Nava's Gold and Mshawish'girl are separated by less than two rating points at the top — but Ryka's eye-popping 40% career win rate adds a compelling wrinkle to the pace scenario.

win1Nava's GoldML 9/5

Nava's Gold leads the TrackWiz ratings at 87.23 and is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 with Luis Raul Rivera riding for trainer James R. Jackson. A 28% career win rate is solid for this level, and an average speed figure of 52 gives her a consistent baseline. At 5½ furlongs, Rivera should be able to find a comfortable spot just off the pace and pounce in the stretch — our analysis makes her the clear top selection.

place5Mshawish'girlML 4/1

Mshawish'girl at 4/1 is the best value in this race — an 85.62 TrackWiz rating that's nearly identical to the top pick, but available at more than double the odds. Fernando Salazar Becerra rides for Robert C. Cline, and her average speed figure of 53 is actually the best in the field. An 18% career win rate is respectable in allowance company, and she's the kind of horse who can steal this race if Nava's Gold has any trouble.

show6RykaML 2/1

Ryka brings the most intriguing profile in the field — a 40% career win rate is exceptional, and that winning pedigree matters in allowance company. She's listed at 2/1 on the morning line despite a 63.15 TrackWiz rating that ranks third, suggesting the public is buying the win percentage. Trainer David Wolochuk puts Angel I. Diaz up, and while she may be a slight overlay for win, she's a very comfortable show-ticket horse with her record of converting.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 8

4:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

Moonlighter is a near-lock favorite profile in this 6-furlong maiden closer — posting the highest TrackWiz rating on the entire day's card — but Bukele at 7/2 makes the exacta intriguing.

win3MoonlighterML 8/5

Moonlighter enters Race 8 with a 89.12 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark on the entire Thistledown card today — and goes off at 8/5 with Erik Barbaran in the irons for trainer Robert M. Gorham. An average speed figure of 53 is right in line with this maiden field, and Barbaran's familiarity with Gorham's horses is an edge. At 6 furlongs, he'll have a little extra runway to find his best stride, and our analysis says he's the kind of horse you can single in pick-3 and pick-4 sequences.

place7BukeleML 7/2

Bukele at 7/2 is the clear second choice in our analysis with a 70.66 TrackWiz rating — a genuine gap ahead of the rest of the field. Fernando Salazar Becerra gets the call for trainer Caryn Vecchio, and his average speed figure of 52 is solid in this maiden company. He's the natural exacta partner with Moonlighter, and if the favorite encounters any trouble, Bukele has the profile to pick up the pieces.

show5Killa CreedML 5/2

Killa Creed at 5/2 is the morning-line second choice and checks in third in TrackWiz ratings at 57.5. Chelsey Keiser rides for David Wolochuk, and an average speed figure of 53 matches Moonlighter's best. The public will likely bet her down based on odds board positioning, which may make her a slight overlay at show — she's worth including in your trifecta combos as a horse who should be competitive in the late stages of this sprint.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Today's best free play is Jasper Valley in Race 3, the top-rated horse among our open picks. For the marquee play of the day, keep an eye on Moonlighter in the nightcap — an 89.12 TrackWiz rating is nothing to ignore even at a short price. Stable conditions and a fair dirt track set the stage for a clean, competitive afternoon at Thistledown. Full card analysis, pace projections, and exotic strategies are waiting for subscribers — check out our plans at /pricing and make sure you're covered before post time.

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