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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — August 13, 2026
Thistledown rolls out an 8-race all-dirt card on Thursday, August 13, and the conditions are about as cooperative as you could ask for mid-August in Northeast Ohio — cloudy skies, 78°F, and no rain in the picture. That kind of mild, stable weather is a handicapper's friend: no excuses, no wild track bias shifts, just horses doing their thing on a surface that should play fair all afternoon.
The card is heavy on Maiden Special Weight action — six of eight races carry MSW conditions, which means plenty of first-timers and lightly raced runners where trainer intent and morning-line moves can tell you a lot. Tucked into the mix are two Allowance spots, including a one-miler in Race 4 that gives us a rare route test at this sprint-heavy oval. Our TrackWiz ratings span a wide range today, from the mid-60s in Race 2 all the way up to 89.12 for Race 8's top pick, Moonlighter — the highest-rated horse on the entire card.
Three races are open to all readers, with full breakdowns available. The remaining five are part of our premium package. Let's get into it.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
A wide-open maiden sprint where TrackWiz ratings separate a clear top-three from the rest of the field — but with all horses at zero career wins, upsets are always lurking.
Gypsy Kat stands out as the class of this field with a TrackWiz rating of 78.24 — more than 20 points clear of the next rival. Trainer Johanna Urieta sends her out with jockey Deshawn L. Parker, and the 3/1 morning line makes her a fair price rather than an overbacked chalk. At 5½ furlongs on dirt, the pace should set up for her to stalk and kick, and that rating edge is hard to ignore in a field where no one has broken their maiden yet.
Youngandfree checks in as the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and backs it up with a 58.33 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 52. Trainer Kristina M. Tumblin has her in a good spot, and Erik Barbaran is a reliable pilot in these maiden sprints. She's got the profile of a horse that wants to put in a clean, professional effort right away — she's a solid inclusion in exactas underneath Gypsy Kat.
All That Sass at 9/2 is the third piece of this exacta/trifecta puzzle, posting a 54.17 rating that slots neatly behind the top two. David J. Haldar gets the call for trainer Justin Radosevich, and her average speed of 51 keeps her competitive at this maiden level. She's worth tossing in your trifecta tickets as a horse who could benefit if the top pair beats each other up.
Race 2
Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
Lowells Legacy tops the TrackWiz ratings but goes off at a generous morning-line price, creating a compelling value dynamic against a morning-line favorite who'll attract heavy public action.
Lowells Legacy earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 67.66 despite being listed at 5/1 on the morning line — that's the kind of gap TrackWiz analysis loves to exploit. Jockey Humberto Haldar pairs with trainer Jeff Fletcher, and with an average speed figure of 52, he matches the field's best. In a maiden sprint where the public will likely gravitate toward Everynowandthen, Lowells Legacy offers real value if he replicates his best efforts.
Everynowandthen is the morning-line favorite at 9/5, and a 58.67 rating with an average speed of 52 backs up that favoritism. T. D. Houghton rides for trainer Danny R. Bird, a combination worth tracking. The public may push her below fair value, but she's solid enough to fill the place spot — especially if Lowells Legacy clears off on the front end.
Dublin Time at 5/2 rounds out the top three with a 57.5 rating and an average speed of 52, making him statistically on par with the favorite. Brandon Tapara takes the mount for trainer Robert M. Gorham, and the 5/2 price is workable for a horse this close in the ratings. He's a natural fit for trifecta coverage as a horse who should have enough early foot to stay involved.
Race 3
Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt
Jasper Valley dominates the TrackWiz ratings at nearly 30 points clear of the next horse, setting up as a potential single in multi-race wagers — but Sharon's Wish shows the best raw speed figure in the field.
Jasper Valley is the standout on paper with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the highest in this field by a wide margin — and trainer Timothy E. Hamm puts him in here at 5/2 alongside jockey Rocco Bowen. His average speed figure of 54 is excellent for this maiden level, and Bowen is a rider who knows how to get horses into the clear in sprint races. This is a race where our analysis says you can lean hard on the top selection.
Sharon's Wish is worth noting because she actually posts the best average speed figure in the field at 55, even though her 58.67 rating trails Jasper Valley significantly. John McKee rides for trainer Robert C. Cline, who doubles up in this race with It's All Mischief. If Sharon's Wish can translate that raw speed into race shape at 5 furlongs, she's a legitimate place contender and should be on all your exotics.
Snitch at 7/2 checks in with a 55.83 rating and is piloted by Erik Barbaran — one of the more active riders at Thistledown — for trainer Robert M. Gorham. His average speed of 53 puts him right in the mix with the mid-tier of this field, and the 7/2 price makes him a worthwhile show ticket and trifecta piece. He's the logical safety net if the top two encounter any traffic.
Our three free races — Races 1, 2, and 3 — all come in the early part of the card and share a common thread: maiden dirt sprints where pace scenario is everything. At Thistledown, the rail can be a weapon in the early furlongs, and horses that can slot in behind the speed without burning too much gas are worth a close look. Jasper Valley stands out as the highest-rated free pick at 87.81 in Race 3 (5 furlongs, morning line 5/2), and our analysis likes the profile. Gypsy Kat opens the card as the Race 1 top pick at 3/1 with a solid 78.24 rating, while Lowells Legacy is an interesting 5/1 overlay angle in Race 2 — lower rating, but that price invites a second look for players chasing value early.
The pace setup across all three early sprints looks relatively honest, which tends to favor horses with tactical speed over pure front-runners who might get squeezed on a tighter track like Thistledown. No wild surface curveballs today — the mild conditions should keep things straightforward and reward the most talented horses in each field.
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Today's best free play is Jasper Valley in Race 3, the top-rated horse among our open picks. For the marquee play of the day, keep an eye on Moonlighter in the nightcap — an 89.12 TrackWiz rating is nothing to ignore even at a short price. Stable conditions and a fair dirt track set the stage for a clean, competitive afternoon at Thistledown. Full card analysis, pace projections, and exotic strategies are waiting for subscribers — check out our plans at /pricing and make sure you're covered before post time.