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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — August 18, 2026
Thistledown is running an eight-race all-dirt card this Tuesday afternoon under partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 76°F — solid conditions for a claiming slate where the angles and class questions are front and center. No weather excuses today; the track should be consistent from the first post to the last, which is exactly what you want when you're trying to read pace scenarios and surface bias.
All eight races are claiming events, ranging from 5½-furlong sprints to a pair of one-mile routes. That mix of distances gives us different pace dynamics to work with throughout the afternoon — the sprints should set up for speed-favoring trips, while the two mile-long routes will demand a bit more stamina and class evaluation. Our TrackWiz ratings span from the mid-80s up to 89.12 on Mission Girl, so the top end of this card has some genuine horsepower worth paying attention to.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
A mile-long claiming opener with a clear top-two on the TrackWiz ratings, but the morning line favorite isn't either of them — that disconnect makes this race more interesting than it looks on paper.
Why Not Me (4) leads our ratings at 85.62 — the highest mark in the field — and posts out from the rail at 4/1, which looks like legitimate value given the numbers. Trainer Chad T. Skelton sends him out with a 11% career win rate, and at a mile on dirt, horses with top-tier ratings tend to separate in the stretch where raw ability shows through. Jockey Rocco Bowen is a solid pick-up here, and if Why Not Me can settle into a comfortable pace early, he's got the class to grind out the win.
Vladislav (2) rates second in the field at 83.52 and goes postward at a relatively generous 9/2 morning line. The Jefferson Skerrett/Jeffrey Skerrett trainer-jockey family combo is worth noting — those connections tend to have their horses sharp and ready. He matches Paynter's Canvas on average speed figures at 52 but holds a clear edge in overall rating, making him a strong place candidate in the exotics.
Big Bucksalot (8) is the standout value proposition for the show slot — his 19% career win rate is the best in the field, and his average speed figure of 54 leads the entire field as well. Trainer Craig Sweeting has him primed at 3/1 on the morning line, which actually understates how well he profiles on raw numbers. He's a strong inclusion in any trifecta or exacta build given his speed edge and proven winning habit.
Race 2
Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
Holiday Lights towers over this 5 1/2-furlong field on ratings and win percentage, but the juicy angles are hiding further down the program — Bo Runkle at 8/1 could make this a profitable card if the chalk holds.
Holiday Lights (5) is the class of this race, full stop. Her TrackWiz rating of 87.66 is the field's best by a clear margin, and her 26% career win rate is exceptional in claiming company — that's one in four starts converting. Trainer Saul M. Morales knows this filly well and rider Brandon Tapara gets the mount at a 2/1 morning line that's tough to argue with. At 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, she's got the speed numbers (avg 53) to sit comfortably in the pace and kick.
Bo Runkle (7) at 8/1 is the value play in the place spot — his rating of 79.79 is second-best in the field, yet he's priced like an afterthought. With a 19% career win rate and an average speed of 54 that actually tops the field, Fernando Salazar Becerra gets on a horse who consistently runs fast, just hasn't always put it together at the wire. If Holiday Lights draws out the pace duel up front, Bo Runkle sitting off the pace could be perfectly positioned.
Thee New Beginning (8) is the other Manuel Vlaun barn entry in this race, and at 3/1 he's priced right for the show slot. His 73.85 rating and 18% career win rate tell a consistent story, and his average speed of 54 matches Bo Runkle at the top of the field. Jefferson Skerrett — a reliable pilot — keeps the ride, and barn-mates who share the same 54 speed average could run 1-2 for Vlaun if the pace sets up right.
Race 3
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
Ultimate Destinatn's rating is nearly 17 points clear of the second-best in this six-furlong field, but the morning line says this one is yours to beat at just 5/2 — and that's a fair price for the class advantage on display.
Ultimate Destinatn (4) is the standout of this race by every measure we track. A TrackWiz rating of 87.81, an average speed figure of 54 (tied for best), and a jaw-dropping 42% career win rate — that's not a typo. Rocco Bowen stays in the irons, and trainer Timothy E. Hamm has this one sharp. At 5/2, you're not getting rich, but you're backing a horse who wins nearly half his races in this class — that's as reliable as it gets in claiming racing.
Swayback Mobil (5) is an intriguing place option at 3/1 despite holding only an 8% career win rate. His TrackWiz rating of 70.76 is comfortably second in the field, and his average speed of 54 is right there with the top horses. The low win rate might be deceiving — horses who show up in speed and rating but don't always win tend to be consistent in-the-money types, exactly what you want in the place spot.
So That's That (6) at 9/2 brings a 33% career win rate to a field where that kind of experience matters. Her rating of 50.93 trails the top two, but in a six-furlong dirt race, pace scenario and tactical position can compensate for a rating gap. Rider Ricardo Feliciano has local experience, and with two speed horses likely to contest the early lead, a closer like So That's That could be picking up the pieces late.
We're opening the card with three free best bets to get everyone started. Why Not Me kicks things off in Race 1 going a mile at 4/1 on the morning line — a solid route play with a TrackWiz rating of 85.62. Race 2 sharpens the focus to 5½ furlongs where Holiday Lights draws our eye as the 2/1 morning-line favorite and one of the stronger numbers on the free portion of the card at 87.66. Then Race 3 at six furlongs brings Ultimate Destinatn into the picture at 5/2, posting the highest TrackWiz rating of the free trio at 87.81.
All three free picks are on dirt sprints and routes where pace shape will be critical — if speed gets loose on the front end early in the card, watch for that trend to carry through. These three races give you a real read on how the surface is playing before the premium races heat up.
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Bottom line for today at Thistledown: the free card gives you three strong launching points in Why Not Me, Holiday Lights, and Ultimate Destinatn — and Mission Girl and Eddie M headline a premium back half that's worth the deep dive. Good luck this afternoon, play within your means, and let the numbers do the talking.