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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — August 18, 2026

August 18, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

This card ran on August 18, 2026.

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Best bets at Thistledown, August 18, 2026

Race 14Why Not MeML 4/112:50 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

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Thistledown is running an eight-race all-dirt card this Tuesday afternoon under partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 76°F — solid conditions for a claiming slate where the angles and class questions are front and center. No weather excuses today; the track should be consistent from the first post to the last, which is exactly what you want when you're trying to read pace scenarios and surface bias.

All eight races are claiming events, ranging from 5½-furlong sprints to a pair of one-mile routes. That mix of distances gives us different pace dynamics to work with throughout the afternoon — the sprints should set up for speed-favoring trips, while the two mile-long routes will demand a bit more stamina and class evaluation. Our TrackWiz ratings span from the mid-80s up to 89.12 on Mission Girl, so the top end of this card has some genuine horsepower worth paying attention to.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A mile-long claiming opener with a clear top-two on the TrackWiz ratings, but the morning line favorite isn't either of them — that disconnect makes this race more interesting than it looks on paper.

win4Why Not MeML 4/1

Why Not Me (4) leads our ratings at 85.62 — the highest mark in the field — and posts out from the rail at 4/1, which looks like legitimate value given the numbers. Trainer Chad T. Skelton sends him out with a 11% career win rate, and at a mile on dirt, horses with top-tier ratings tend to separate in the stretch where raw ability shows through. Jockey Rocco Bowen is a solid pick-up here, and if Why Not Me can settle into a comfortable pace early, he's got the class to grind out the win.

place2VladislavML 9/2

Vladislav (2) rates second in the field at 83.52 and goes postward at a relatively generous 9/2 morning line. The Jefferson Skerrett/Jeffrey Skerrett trainer-jockey family combo is worth noting — those connections tend to have their horses sharp and ready. He matches Paynter's Canvas on average speed figures at 52 but holds a clear edge in overall rating, making him a strong place candidate in the exotics.

show8Big BucksalotML 3/1

Big Bucksalot (8) is the standout value proposition for the show slot — his 19% career win rate is the best in the field, and his average speed figure of 54 leads the entire field as well. Trainer Craig Sweeting has him primed at 3/1 on the morning line, which actually understates how well he profiles on raw numbers. He's a strong inclusion in any trifecta or exacta build given his speed edge and proven winning habit.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Holiday Lights towers over this 5 1/2-furlong field on ratings and win percentage, but the juicy angles are hiding further down the program — Bo Runkle at 8/1 could make this a profitable card if the chalk holds.

win5Holiday LightsML 2/1

Holiday Lights (5) is the class of this race, full stop. Her TrackWiz rating of 87.66 is the field's best by a clear margin, and her 26% career win rate is exceptional in claiming company — that's one in four starts converting. Trainer Saul M. Morales knows this filly well and rider Brandon Tapara gets the mount at a 2/1 morning line that's tough to argue with. At 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, she's got the speed numbers (avg 53) to sit comfortably in the pace and kick.

place7Bo RunkleML 8/1

Bo Runkle (7) at 8/1 is the value play in the place spot — his rating of 79.79 is second-best in the field, yet he's priced like an afterthought. With a 19% career win rate and an average speed of 54 that actually tops the field, Fernando Salazar Becerra gets on a horse who consistently runs fast, just hasn't always put it together at the wire. If Holiday Lights draws out the pace duel up front, Bo Runkle sitting off the pace could be perfectly positioned.

show8Thee New BeginningML 3/1

Thee New Beginning (8) is the other Manuel Vlaun barn entry in this race, and at 3/1 he's priced right for the show slot. His 73.85 rating and 18% career win rate tell a consistent story, and his average speed of 54 matches Bo Runkle at the top of the field. Jefferson Skerrett — a reliable pilot — keeps the ride, and barn-mates who share the same 54 speed average could run 1-2 for Vlaun if the pace sets up right.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

We're opening the card with three free best bets to get everyone started. Why Not Me kicks things off in Race 1 going a mile at 4/1 on the morning line — a solid route play with a TrackWiz rating of 85.62. Race 2 sharpens the focus to 5½ furlongs where Holiday Lights draws our eye as the 2/1 morning-line favorite and one of the stronger numbers on the free portion of the card at 87.66. Then Race 3 at six furlongs brings Ultimate Destinatn into the picture at 5/2, posting the highest TrackWiz rating of the free trio at 87.81.

All three free picks are on dirt sprints and routes where pace shape will be critical — if speed gets loose on the front end early in the card, watch for that trend to carry through. These three races give you a real read on how the surface is playing before the premium races heat up.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Ultimate Destinatn's rating is nearly 17 points clear of the second-best in this six-furlong field, but the morning line says this one is yours to beat at just 5/2 — and that's a fair price for the class advantage on display.

win4Ultimate DestinatnML 5/2

Ultimate Destinatn (4) is the standout of this race by every measure we track. A TrackWiz rating of 87.81, an average speed figure of 54 (tied for best), and a jaw-dropping 42% career win rate — that's not a typo. Rocco Bowen stays in the irons, and trainer Timothy E. Hamm has this one sharp. At 5/2, you're not getting rich, but you're backing a horse who wins nearly half his races in this class — that's as reliable as it gets in claiming racing.

place5Swayback MobilML 3/1

Swayback Mobil (5) is an intriguing place option at 3/1 despite holding only an 8% career win rate. His TrackWiz rating of 70.76 is comfortably second in the field, and his average speed of 54 is right there with the top horses. The low win rate might be deceiving — horses who show up in speed and rating but don't always win tend to be consistent in-the-money types, exactly what you want in the place spot.

show6So That's ThatML 9/2

So That's That (6) at 9/2 brings a 33% career win rate to a field where that kind of experience matters. Her rating of 50.93 trails the top two, but in a six-furlong dirt race, pace scenario and tactical position can compensate for a rating gap. Rider Ricardo Feliciano has local experience, and with two speed horses likely to contest the early lead, a closer like So That's That could be picking up the pieces late.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

2:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses at the top of the TrackWiz ratings are nearly deadlocked — Express Cruiser (84.17) and Printrack (84.01) — but the morning lines tell very different stories, and that's where the value lives in this 5 1/2-furlong dirt claimer.

win7Express CruiserML 5/1

Express Cruiser (7) is our top-rated horse in Race 4 at 84.17, edging the morning line favorite Printrack by the slimmest of margins. The 5/1 morning line on a horse who rates best in the field is an immediate flag — DeShawn L. Parker gets on a horse who should be shortening, not drifting. Trainer Johanna Urieta's 12% career win rate with this horse doesn't scream dominant, but the speed numbers (avg 54) and top overall rating make a compelling case that the market is slightly off here.

place6PrintrackML 8/5

Printrack (6) is the morning line favorite at 8/5 and carries the second-highest rating in the field at 84.01 — just a hair behind Express Cruiser. What separates Printrack is a 35% career win rate, which is elite for this level, and an average speed figure of 55 that leads the entire field. Erik Barbaran rides for trainer Marco Ccamaque, and even if Printrack gets edged out for the win, that 35% strike rate means she's going to be around the finish in almost any scenario.

show2Thanks FrankML 4/1

Thanks Frank (2) at 4/1 is a sensible show play behind the two top-rated horses. His 75.40 rating is third-best in the race, and an 18% career win rate with an average speed of 54 keeps him competitive if either of the top two encounter trouble or a pace mismatch. Jerome J. Innis has the call for Norman Rose, and at those odds, he adds excellent value to any exacta or trifecta ticket.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

2:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Mission Girl enters as a dominant favorite on both the morning line and TrackWiz ratings, but Hello Sweets and Go Girl offer enough credentials to keep the exotics interesting — this one won't be a throwaway card.

win2Mission GirlML 8/5

Mission Girl (2) is as close to a standout as you'll find in a claiming field — her rating of 89.12 leads every horse on today's card through five races, and her 25% career win rate reflects a filly who's figured out how to get to the wire first. Trainer Nestor R. Rivera puts Humberto Haldar up, who's had a busy book all afternoon, and at 8/5 on the morning line, the public agrees this is the horse to beat. At 5 1/2 furlongs, her average speed of 53 should get the job done if she breaks cleanly.

place1Hello SweetsML 4/1

Hello Sweets (1) is the natural backup at 4/1, boasting a 24% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 79.6 — that's a sizable gap behind Mission Girl, but she's still a class above most in this field. Jefferson Skerrett has been active all card and rides for trainer Ivan Calderon, who also has Danza Magic in the race — when a trainer splits the barn, watch which one draws the better jockey. Skerrett on Hello Sweets suggests Calderon likes this one more.

show6Go GirlML 2/1

Go Girl (6) at 2/1 is actually priced as the second betting choice on the morning line despite holding the third-best rating at 64.43. That kind of public support on a horse our numbers rank third tells you the market sees something — maybe trip notes or workout patterns. With a 13% career win rate and the same average speed (53) as the top two horses, she's got the tools to sneak a show finish. Jerome J. Innis keeps the mount for trainer Susan D. Yoder.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 6

3:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Corner Office is a significant class standout on ratings in what shapes up as a pace-contested six-furlong dirt affair — the question is whether Dr. Zarnett or Right On the Munny can sustain enough pressure to threaten at the wire.

win2Corner OfficeML 4/1

Corner Office (2) sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 — more than 13 points clear of the second-best horse — and yet he's going off at 4/1 on the morning line, which looks very gettable. His 25% career win rate is the highest among the contenders, and his average speed of 54 is tied for tops in the field. Trainer Marco Ibarra sends him out with Luis Alberto Batista up, and at six furlongs, this is a horse with every reason to be the one they're all chasing.

place5Right On the MunnyML 9/2

Right On the Munny (5) makes for an excellent place target at 9/2 — his 38% career win rate is the highest in the field, suggesting he consistently hits the board even when the win doesn't come. The TrackWiz rating of 71.71 is mid-field, but a horse who wins 38% of the time doesn't need the top rating to cash place tickets. Fernando Salazar Becerra keeps the mount for trainer Nicole Higham, and with a 54 average speed, he can track the pace and pounce.

show1Dr. ZarnettML 2/1

Dr. Zarnett (1) opens as the 2/1 morning line favorite despite a rating (62.18) that sits well below Corner Office. The public's love here likely stems from his 19% career win rate and an average speed of 54 — numbers that are solid but not elite. Brandon Tapara rides for Hugo Andrade, and in a race where the early pace could get hot, a horse drawing the rail at short odds may be a natural show play as chaos sorts itself out in the stretch.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

3:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Eddie M sits alone at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this mile-long claimer, but the Kim Puhl stable has two horses in the race — We Need a Favor and Hot Gunner — setting up a potential 1-2 stable punch that complicates the pace picture.

win4Eddie MML 2/1

Eddie M (4) is the clear class horse here with a rating of 88.54 and a 27% career win rate — both marks top the field. Trainer Nestor R. Rivera puts Alexander Chavez on him, and Chavez has been active and effective throughout the card. At 2/1, he's priced where you'd expect a horse this dominant to be, but it's a fair number for what the ratings say. At a mile on dirt, he's got the average speed (52) to sit the pace and prove best when they hit the lane.

place1We Need a FavorML 9/5

We Need a Favor (1) is a tricky one — she's the 9/5 morning line FAVORITE despite rating below Eddie M, which tells you the market is leaning heavily on her connections. Trainer Kim Puhl also has Hot Gunner in here, but Luis Antonio Gonzalez on We Need a Favor over Hot Gunner suggests Puhl prefers this one. A 16% career win rate is modest, but at 9/5 she'll attract heavy money, and her place potential in a two-horse pace dynamic is real.

show2Hot GunnerML 3/1

Hot Gunner (2) rounds out the Puhl barn double at 3/1, and while he ranks third on TrackWiz ratings at 70.1, his 23% career win rate is actually the second-best in the field. Rocco Bowen takes the mount, and if the pace duel between We Need a Favor and Eddie M develops at the front, Hot Gunner has the tactical profile of a stalker who could benefit at the top of the stretch. Worth including in trifectas at a fair price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 8

4:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Starcourt's rating (87.81) dominates this closer-to-dark 5 1/2-furlong field, but Twilight Vision's morning line favoritism and Special Beach's midrange profile make the trifecta structure here one of the better bets on the card.

win4StarcourtML 5/2

Starcourt (4) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 — tied for best on the entire card today — yet he's going off at a very playable 5/2 morning line. Trainer Richard L. Genovese puts Noel Vigil in the irons, and while his 10% career win rate may give some bettors pause, the rating advantage here is substantial. His average speed of 54 is tied for tops, and at 5 1/2 furlongs this late in the card, a fresh, sharp horse with elite numbers is exactly what we're looking for.

place3Twilight VisionML 2/1

Twilight Vision (3) is the morning line favorite at 2/1 and holds a solid 75.04 rating backed by a 21% career win rate. Humberto Haldar has had a full book today, and trainer James R. Jackson clearly sends this one out ready. Her average speed of 54 ties the field leaders, and even if Starcourt is the stronger horse on raw ratings, Twilight Vision has enough consistency on her side to land a place check in most scenarios.

show7Special BeachML 5/1

Special Beach (7) at 5/1 is the show play that makes this trifecta ticket hum. His 70.67 rating is third-best in the race, and while a 13% career win rate is modest, his average speed of 54 puts him right in the mix on raw performance. Jefferson Skerrett takes the mount for trainer Joseph P. Mahan — a solid late-card combination — and at 5/1, he gives you overlay value in the bottom slot of any trifecta or superfecta you're constructing.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Bottom line for today at Thistledown: the free card gives you three strong launching points in Why Not Me, Holiday Lights, and Ultimate Destinatn — and Mission Girl and Eddie M headline a premium back half that's worth the deep dive. Good luck this afternoon, play within your means, and let the numbers do the talking.

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