Daily Picks

Thistledown Picks & Predictions — August 5, 2026

August 5, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

This card ran on August 5, 2026.

Best bets at Thistledown, August 5, 2026

Race 13Her Own ShadowML 3/112:50 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

A free account opens race 2 too. Premium opens all 8, with AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet, which splits one bet across the horses you like.

Join Free See plans · from $9.99

It's a warm Wednesday afternoon at Thistledown — 83°F under partly cloudy skies — and the dirt is set up for a clean, fast-tracking eight-race card. Conditions like these tend to reward horses that can establish position early, so pace scenario is going to be front and center all day long.

Today's card mixes claiming and allowance company across sprint distances, with six-furlong routes dominating the slate. That means we're looking at quick, decisive races where early speed and late kick collide in a hurry. TrackWiz analysis has flagged some strong angles across the board, particularly in the allowance races where class separations are clearest.

Three races are open to all readers, and we've got five premium deep-dives locked in for subscribers. Let's set the table.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open 10-horse claiming sprint with three horses bunched near the top of the TrackWiz ratings, setting up a competitive pace scenario where the winner could come from anywhere in the first half of the field.

win3Her Own ShadowML 3/1

Her Own Shadow (#3) earns the top TrackWiz rating at 86.58 and backs it up with a 33% career win rate — that kind of conversion number in a claiming field is genuinely impressive. Luis Raul Rivera gets the call, and the 3/1 morning line feels right for a horse this consistent. At six furlongs on the dirt, her profile fits the distance, and that win percentage gives you confidence she'll be in the mix when it matters most.

place8Jilly Runs DeepML 5/1

Jilly Runs Deep (#8) rates second in this field at 83.67 and also carries a strong 28% career win clip, so she's no pushover. Coming from trainer Richard J. Rettele with Brandon Tapara up, she's a horse that knows how to finish, even if she falls just short of the top spot today. At 5/1 on the morning line, she represents solid value in exacta and quinella tickets underneath Her Own Shadow.

show1Over the FallsML 6/1

Over the Falls (#1) slots in as our show pick with a TrackWiz rating of 82.71, giving this race a formidable top three that are all within four points of each other. The 18% career win rate is modest but respectable, and the 6/1 morning line makes him a worthwhile exotics play. He's worth including in trifecta coverage — if the top two stumble, he has the raw ability to pick up the pieces.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This allowance sprint sets up as a battle of pace between three closely-rated horses at the top, with the morning-line favorite sitting just off the pace and a clear class standout among the contenders.

win6Mo SwiftML 2/1

Mo Swift (#6) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.85 and brings a 20% career win rate into an allowance field where that number plays well. Luis Raul Rivera picks up the mount for trainer Michael L. Rone, a solid local combination, and the 2/1 morning line confirms the crowd is already onto this horse. At 5.5 furlongs on the dirt, his average speed figure of 53 ties the best in the field, and a horse this consistent in allowance company should be able to handle the class demands here.

place3Dark N DirtyML 3/1

Dark N Dirty (#3) is sitting just one rating point behind Mo Swift at 85.05, which in a field this size is essentially a coin flip. The 11% career win rate looks modest on paper, but trainer Louis V. Ruberto, Jr. placed this horse at 3/1 in allowance company, suggesting confidence in a sharp effort. Jose A. Bracho is a capable pilot and should have this horse in position to fire — he's a legit threat to steal the show.

show5Rivers AngelML 5/1

Rivers Angel (#5) is only a tick behind Dark N Dirty at a 84.17 rating and offers the best career win percentage of the main contenders at 16%. Summer Pauly has the mount for trainer John Corriveau, and at 5/1 on the morning line, this horse gives you a live value option in exotics. With three horses rated within 2.7 points of each other, trifecta players should make sure Rivers Angel is covered.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Our free coverage spans the first three races, and there's real handicapping substance here. Her Own Shadow (Race 1, 3/1 morning line) kicks off the card in a six-furlong claimer, and our TrackWiz rating of 86.58 puts her at the top of a field we think she can control. In Race 2, Mo Swift draws plenty of attention at 2/1 in a 5½-furlong allowance — a competitive morning line for a horse our model grades as a legitimate contender. Then comes the free-card headliner: City Scene in Race 3, an allowance sprint at six furlongs where her 88.83 TrackWiz rating is the best number among the free picks all day.

One thread connecting these early races: the partly cloudy, warm conditions are keeping the Thistledown dirt consistent, which tends to level the playing field for closers. Don't dismiss horses with late-running styles in Races 1 through 3 — the pace could set up in their favor if the speed horses burn each other up.

Free with an account

Open the next race free

A free account opens the first 2 races at every track, and every race at our Track of the Day. No credit card needed.

Create a free account Sign in

Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

City Scene looks like a class standout in a short allowance field, but the pace picture gets interesting with Key to Success and Cloud Storage both carrying speed figures that could put pressure on the pace from the jump.

win4City SceneML 9/5

City Scene (#4) is the most dominant single-horse profile on today's card — an 88.83 TrackWiz rating paired with a jaw-dropping 48% career win rate says this horse simply knows how to win. Luis Raul Rivera rode this horse here and the 9/5 morning line reflects genuine public confidence, not hype. At six furlongs with an average speed figure of 55 (tied for the field best), City Scene has the raw speed to go gate-to-wire and the winning pedigree to close if the pace falls apart.

place5Austrian NavyML 7/2

Austrian Navy (#5) is the most logical horse to chase City Scene home, with a 66.74 rating and a strong 30% career win rate that shows he's a consistent performer. Trainer Kim A. Puhl actually saddles two horses in this race, which suggests she likes her stable's chances on this particular surface and distance. Rocco Bowen is a quality jockey, and at 7/2, there's real value if Austrian Navy can hang on to a piece.

show3Key to SuccessML 5/2

Key to Success (#3) shows the highest average speed figure in the field at 55, matching City Scene, and posts an 18% career win rate that's workable in a five-horse field. Trainer Kim A. Puhl sends out this runner as well, giving her barn strong representation throughout this race. At 5/2, she's not a longshot, but her raw speed numbers suggest she could make things uncomfortable early and earn a check.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 4

2:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Ilikethat is a standout on paper in this six-furlong claimer, but Social History lurks at big value odds and could make this more interesting than the morning line suggests.

win2IlikethatML 3/1

Ilikethat (#2) dominates this claiming field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and an eye-catching 44% career win rate — nearly half his career starts have ended in victory, which is extraordinary at the claiming level. Alexander Chavez is aboard for trainer Nestor R. Rivera, a barn that also runs Oklahoma Joe in this race, and an average speed of 54 gives him a real edge at six furlongs. The 3/1 morning line is a fair price for a horse this accomplished; he should be on every winning ticket.

place8Social HistoryML 6/1

Social History (#8) is our value play for the place spot, checking in with a 74.61 rating and a solid 25% career win percentage. Jose A. Bracho rides for trainer Robert C. Cline, a capable combination, and the 6/1 morning line represents genuine overlay territory if this horse runs to his rating. He's the horse to beat for the exacta slot underneath Ilikethat and worth singling in place bets.

show5Ollie's FollyML 5/2

Ollie's Folly (#5) brings a 68.31 TrackWiz rating and a 28% career win rate to the table, making him the third-most accomplished horse in this field by win percentage. Jason Simpson rides for Ricardo Gonzalez at 5/2 on the morning line, so while he's not overlooked, he gives trifecta players solid coverage in the third spot. His average speed of 54 matches Ilikethat, and if the pace sets up honestly, he has the tactical ability to grab a piece.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

2:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Val's Twinstar leads a tightly-bunched claiming field at 5.5 furlongs, with two other horses rated above 81 creating a potential three-way battle in the stretch — pace could be the deciding factor here.

win3Val's TwinstarML 3/1

Val's Twinstar (#3) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and pairs that with the best average speed figure in the field at 54, a key edge in a sprint where fractions matter. Luis Antonio Gonzalez gets the mount for trainer Valerie K. Shanyfelt, and the 3/1 morning line puts this horse right in the mix at a fair price. A 16% career win rate might look modest, but the speed advantage in a 5.5-furlong claiming race is the stat that matters most, and Val's Twinstar owns it.

place1Drill BlitzML 5/2

Drill Blitz (#1) is our place pick at 81.66 on the TrackWiz scale, carrying a 14% career win rate that becomes more meaningful from the rail in a short sprint where post position can be decisive. Jefferson Skerrett gets the call for trainer Gary L. Johnson, and the 5/2 morning line says the public already respects this horse. If Val's Twinstar takes the fight to the front, Drill Blitz is well-positioned to inherit a clean stalking trip and close willingly.

show5Angel I'm NotML 6/1

Angel I'm Not (#5) checks in at 81.17 on our ratings, just a whisker behind Drill Blitz, and brings a 20% career win rate that's among the better conversion numbers in this field. Victor R. Fernandez rides for trainer Robert C. Cline, a prolific local barn, and the 6/1 morning line is a shade of value given how close the top three horses are on raw ability. In a race this tight, she's the kind of horse that sneaks into the exotics and pays nicely in trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

3:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Hidden Details looks like the class of this allowance sprint, but Tipsy Tulip's unbeaten record creates an interesting subplot — the morning line has it backwards from what the TrackWiz ratings suggest.

win3Hidden DetailsML 2/1

Hidden Details (#3) leads this field comfortably with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and a career win percentage of 33% that screams consistency in allowance company. Erik Barbaran rides for trainer Robert M. Gorham, a combination that knows how to get horses fit, and the 2/1 morning line reflects the public's read. At 5.5 furlongs, an average speed figure of 52 is in line with the field, which means this win case is built on class and form rather than pure speed — and that's often the most durable edge.

place6Tipsy TulipML 9/5

Tipsy Tulip (#6) is a fascinating puzzle — a 100% career win rate from a limited sample that's hard to dismiss, even with a TrackWiz rating of 58.67. Chelsey Keiser rides for trainer Megan Fadlovich, and the 9/5 morning line suggests the public is buying into the unbeaten record more than our ratings do. The highest average speed figure in the race at 54 is real, and if she's simply more accomplished than the records show, she's dangerous enough to grab a place check.

show2Just RunninML 7/2

Just Runnin (#2) won't be on many people's radars at a 50.04 rating, but a 20% career win rate is solid and the 7/2 morning line offers workable value in third-spot exotic coverage. Humberto Haldar rides for trainer Yoni R. Orantes, and if the two heavy hitters at the top of the market are slugging it out, Just Runnin could be the horse that's quietly in the clear at the top of the stretch. Don't leave him off your trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

3:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Teaching Moment enters as a legitimately high-rated allowance contender with a standout win percentage, while the field behind her offers genuine pace threats that could set things up perfectly for a closer.

win3Teaching MomentML 5/2

Teaching Moment (#3) brings the top TrackWiz rating at 87.81 and an eye-opening 66% career win rate — winning two-thirds of your career starts is the kind of profile that demands respect regardless of distance or surface. Chelsey Keiser picks up the mount for trainer David Wolochuk, and the 5/2 morning line feels like slight value given that win percentage. Her average speed of 54 ties the field best, and a horse who wins this often simply knows how to compete — she's the TrackWiz top selection in Race 7.

place1Biscuits 'n GravyML 2/1

Biscuits 'n Gravy (#1) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and carries a respectable 74.70 rating alongside a 25% career win rate. T. D. Houghton rides for James R. Jackson, and from the rail post at six furlongs, getting a clean break could put this horse in an ideal stalking position. If Teaching Moment gets away quick and leads the field over themselves, Biscuits 'n Gravy has the class and profile to finish second — and at the shorter odds, he's worth including in exactas both ways.

show7Runaway PowerML 6/1

Runaway Power (#7) is our show selection at a 73.48 TrackWiz rating, bringing a 14% career win rate that's modest but not disqualifying in an allowance field with this much variance. Fernando Salazar Becerra gets the mount for trainer Robert C. Cline — a barn that also enters Mor Stormy in this race — and the 6/1 morning line makes him the best-priced of the legitimate contenders. In trifecta construction, he's the logical anchor for the third position if Teaching Moment and Biscuits 'n Gravy handle the top two spots.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 8

4:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A full ten-horse claiming field at six furlongs sets up as a wide-open affair, with three horses clustered in the low-to-mid 80s on TrackWiz ratings while the morning-line favorite sits well below that threshold.

win5Game PerformerML 6/1

Game Performer (#5) is our TrackWiz top pick at 82.71, but the intriguing angle here is the 6/1 morning line — the crowd hasn't fully caught up to this horse yet, and that's where the value lives. Erik Barbaran rides for trainer Michael L. Rone, a sharp combination at Thistledown, and a 9% career win rate in a deep claiming field isn't a dealbreaker when the speed figures are this strong. At six furlongs on the dirt with an average speed of 53, Game Performer has the raw ability to take this field by the throat early and hold on.

place8Union SwagML 5/1

Union Swag (#8) rates second in the field at 80.48 and also carries a 53 average speed figure, making him a dangerous closer if the pace gets hot up front. Deshawn L. Parker rides for trainer Gary L. Johnson, and the 5/1 morning line is a shade of value given how high this horse rates versus the competition. In a ten-horse claiming race, there's almost always trouble in the early going — Union Swag is the horse who could benefit most from that chaos and pick up a place.

show10Go Jack GoML 7/2

Go Jack Go (#10) rounds out our trifecta ticket at a 72.91 TrackWiz rating, and while that sits a tier below our top two, the best average speed figure in the contenders' group at 54 keeps him very much in the picture. Fernando Salazar Becerra brings live riding ability for trainer Elias Lopez, and the 7/2 morning line suggests the public sees this horse as a real player. In a wide-open ten-horse field, he's the kind of horse that drifts back and then swoops late — trifecta players should give him a serious look in third.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Eight races, fast dirt, and a card that rewards sharp handicapping over blind chalk-chasing. City Scene is the marquee free play, but the premium half of this card — especially the late allowance fields and that potential value bomb in Race 8 — is where the real money is at stake today. Full analysis for all eight races is available to TrackWiz subscribers. Good luck at the windows.

← All Thistledown picks & predictions