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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — August 4, 2026

Tuesday, August 4, 20268 racesThistledown

It's a beautiful Tuesday at Thistledown — clear skies, 78°F, and a fast dirt track that should reward horses with early speed and clean trips. Eight races are on the slate today, all on the main dirt oval, ranging from a 5½-furlong maiden claiming sprint to a pair of one-mile tests that will sort out the distance horses in the field.

TrackWiz analysis has flagged some compelling angles throughout this card. The three free races up front give us a solid preview of what the afternoon holds, and the premium half of the card features a couple of spots where the pace setups could create real value for players willing to dig deeper. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A full field of ten goes a mile in the opener, and while most of the speed figures are bunched tightly, three horses separate themselves with TrackWiz ratings above 74 — setting up a competitive but readable top of the card.

win2Master of the NiteML 4/1

Master of the Nite (No. 2) earns the top spot with the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 82.49, and trainer Jeffrey Radosevich has two horses in this race — always worth noting when a barn doubles up. The 4/1 morning line represents fair value for a horse with a 21% career win rate stretching to a mile on the dirt. With Luis Raul Rivera in the irons, the connections are professional and the profile fits the conditions.

place9Rock the RedML 6/1

Rock the Red (No. 9) is the lone horse in the field posting a 54 average speed figure, giving him a raw edge over the majority of rivals who are clustered at 52. The 6/1 morning line from trainer Nestor Rivera's barn looks workable, and a 17% career win rate in a field this competitive is nothing to dismiss. He's our place anchor here.

show6Puff'smagicdragonML 10/1

Puff'smagicdragon (No. 6) at 10/1 is a sneaky exotic play — she carries a 76.88 TrackWiz rating, which slots her third in the field and ahead of several horses that oddsmakers have priced below her. She's also trained by Radosevich, who saddles the top pick, so barn form could be a real factor. At double-digit odds, she's well worth including in trifecta combinations.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Country Promises towers over this six-furlong allowance field with a career win percentage that nearly doubles the field average, but three horses with ratings in the 73-75 range could make the exotics interesting if she gets shuffled back.

win9Country PromisesML 3/1

Country Promises (No. 9) is one of those rare cases where the data is overwhelming — a 41% career win rate is exceptional at this level and nearly twice what most rivals carry. Her 87.08 TrackWiz rating leads the field by nearly 12 points, and Erik Barbaran gets the call for trainer Robert Gorham. At 3/1, the morning line is short for an allowance field but the performance profile justifies it — she's the clear top selection.

place3Belle BottomsML 4/1

Belle Bottoms (No. 3) posts a 75.34 rating and brings Alexander Chavez aboard for the well-regarded Nestor Rivera stable. Her 22% career win rate is modest, but in a race where the top pick will draw most of the action, Belle Bottoms at 4/1 could offer solid each-way value in the exacta slots. She looks like the natural second choice.

show8Hoof and BootsML 5/1

Hoof and Boots (No. 8) checks in at 73.45 on the TrackWiz scale — close enough to the place horses to complicate the order of finish. At 5/1 with a 22% career win rate under Luis Raul Rivera, she's dangerous in the exotics, especially if the pace scenario sets up for a closer. Factor her into your trifecta.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Classy Disposition and Calisue sit within a fraction of each other at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this short six-horse starter optional claiming mile — expect a dual battle at the top of the wagering with a short-priced exacta likely.

win6Classy DispositionML 9/5

Classy Disposition (No. 6) gets the top call on the slimmest of margins — an 88.83 TrackWiz rating edges Calisue by less than a third of a point, but her 26% career win rate is the best in the field and adds meaningful context. Ricardo Feliciano rides for the Benny Feliciano stable, a family operation that runs tight ships. At 9/5, she's the chalk, but the underlying numbers back up the favoritism.

place1CalisueML 2/1

Calisue (No. 1) is nearly the equal of the top pick on pure ratings — 88.54 is razor-close to the leader — and she draws the rail with Chelsey Keiser up for trainer Anthony Rini. The 2/1 morning line makes her a solid win threat too, and in a six-horse field at a mile, the rail is hardly a death sentence. She's a strong place play and could easily reverse the order at the finish.

show5Dreaming of AudreyML 8/1

Dreaming of Audrey (No. 5) is a value inclusion at 8/1 for the show slot — her 66.41 TrackWiz rating puts her third in a short field, and trainer Radosevich has had plenty of action on today's card. With a 19% career win rate and Erik Barbaran in the saddle, she could easily be the one sneaking into the money when the favorites duel each other into submission.

The first three races are our gift to every reader today, and there's a common thread running through them — all three are one-mile or shorter dirt routes and sprints where early positioning figures to matter on what should be a firm, fast surface. Master of the Nite (Race 1, morning line 4/1) opens the card at a mile in a Starter Optional Claiming spot, and our rating of 82.49 gives him a real edge in what looks like a thin field. Race 2 flips to a 6-furlong Allowance sprint where Country Promises (3/1 ML, rated 87.08) profiles as a sharp contender with the kind of class and speed figures that fit this condition well.

The highlight of the free trio is Race 3, where Classy Disposition comes in at 9/5 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 — the highest-rated pick among the free races and one of the stronger numbers on the whole card. In another Starter Optional Claiming mile, she looks like the horse to beat, and we wouldn't argue with making her the anchor of any early multi-race wager.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Maiden claimers over 5½ furlongs always carry uncertainty — these horses are still looking for their first win — but H F S Memories brings a commanding TrackWiz rating that stands out clearly from a mixed and largely inexperienced bunch.

win1H F S MemoriesML 5/2

H F S Memories (No. 1) leads this field with a 87.81 TrackWiz rating — a significant gap over the second-ranked My Baby Bullet at 67.36 — and Angel Diaz is a capable handler for trainer Justine Eder. In maiden claiming company, raw ability tends to rise to the top, and the 5/2 morning line reflects that the market has already identified her as the horse to beat. The 51 average speed figure is consistent with the competitive range here.

place8My Baby BulletML 7/2

My Baby Bullet (No. 8) is the clear second option on ratings at 67.36, giving her a comfortable cushion over the rest of the field outside of the top pick. Humberto Haldar gets the mount for trainer James Jackson, and at 7/2 there's some overlay potential if she goes off above that price. In a wide-open maiden race, she's the most likely candidate to hit the board behind the favorite.

show3Not Like UsML 6/1

Not Like Us (No. 3) brings a 61.62 TrackWiz rating — third best in the field — and shows a 52 average speed figure matching the top of the field on that metric. Luis Alberto Batista rides for Evan Fletcher at a 6/1 morning line that offers genuine exotic value. In a maiden field where chaos is always a factor, having a third horse at fair odds makes the trifecta more playable.

Race 5

6:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Roll On Big O looks like the class of this five-and-a-half furlong claiming field, but trainer Radosevich sends two horses into the race — and one of them is quietly lurking at a price that's hard to ignore.

win4Roll On Big OML 7/2

Roll On Big O (No. 4) leads the field with an 83.78 TrackWiz rating and pairs that with a 20% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure — one of the top marks in the field. Luis Alberto Batista takes the mount for Marco Ibarra, and the 7/2 morning line gives you a horse with legit top numbers at a reasonable price. In a 5½-furlong dirt sprint where early pace can be decisive, a horse with this kind of rating edge is hard to fade.

place5Red Chili PepperML 4/1

Red Chili Pepper (No. 5) checks in at 77.91 — second in the field — and Rocco Bowen gets the assignment for Timothy Hamm. The 4/1 morning line is fair for a horse that consistently performs, and while a 17% career win rate isn't flashy, in claiming company that's workable. She's a natural place target if Roll On Big O gets his way on the front end.

show3May MayhemML 10/1

May Mayhem (No. 3) is the longshot value play here — a 76.88 TrackWiz rating at 10/1 is flat-out mispriced, and she's the third-ranked horse in the field. Trainer Radosevich also conditions the place pick in this race, so barn confidence is likely split — but May Mayhem's number alone makes her a legitimate trifecta participant at this price. Don't leave her off your ticket.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Vdaytothetenacious enters this five-horse allowance as a dominant 6/5 favorite — and for once, the morning line favorite is backed by the kind of rating and career numbers that make the short price hard to argue against.

win1VdaytothetenaciousML 6/5

Vdaytothetenacious (No. 1) is the class of this field in every measurable way — an 89.71 TrackWiz rating, a 33% career win rate, and a 55 average speed figure that ties for the highest in the race. Luis Antonio Gonzalez rides for trainer Kim Puhl, who also saddles Saving Heart, suggesting the barn has real firepower in this race. At 6/5, the price isn't juicy, but the profile of a horse this dominant in a five-horse field makes the win bet defensible.

place4Saving HeartML 5/1

Saving Heart (No. 4) is a stablemate of the top pick under the Kim Puhl barn, which cuts both ways — the trainer knows both horses well and put them both in the same race for a reason. Her 52.92 TrackWiz rating and 55 average speed figure match the top of the field on raw pace, and at 5/1 there's real value if the favorite gets into any trouble. She's a logical place play in a short field.

show3BigpiclittlepicML 8/1

Bigpiclittlepic (No. 3) rounds out the show spot with a 52.29 rating for trainer Joseph Poole and jockey Jose Bracho. The 8/1 morning line is generous for a horse that isn't far behind the place horses on raw figures, and a 22% career win rate suggests she's been competitive at this level before. In a five-horse race, show pools can get thin fast — Bigpiclittlepic at those odds in the trifecta is smart coverage.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Bo Runkle is hiding in plain sight at 9/2 in this six-furlong claiming field — his TrackWiz rating is by far the best on the board, yet the morning line treats him like a mid-range contender rather than a standout.

win6Bo RunkleML 9/2

Bo Runkle (No. 6) leads this seven-horse field with an 84.9 TrackWiz rating — more than six points clear of the second-ranked Miss Classified — and carries a 20% career win rate for the Manuel Vlaun barn. Chelsey Keiser takes the mount, and the 9/2 morning line feels like an overlay when you look at how this horse compares on the numbers. In a 6-furlong dirt sprint, a horse with this kind of rating gap and a trainer who has a second runner in the race (Thee New Beginning in the one-hole) looks like the smart play.

place3Miss ClassifiedML 3/1

Miss Classified (No. 3) is the natural place play — an 78.32 TrackWiz rating ranks her second in the field, and Ricardo Feliciano rides for the Benny Feliciano operation, a barn that keeps its horses ready. At 3/1 she'll likely be well-backed, and a 16% career win rate in claiming company is honest. She's the clear secondbest on our numbers and belongs on every exotic ticket.

show2Beaches and PearlsML 2/1

Beaches and Pearls (No. 2) draws the morning line favorite position at 2/1, which creates an interesting dynamic — her 60.27 TrackWiz rating is actually third in the field behind the top two picks, which could mean the market is overrating her slightly. That said, for Deshawn Parker and trainer Marco Ccamaque, a 17% career win rate and a solid speed figure make her a legitimate show play. If the race sets up with pace pressure, she could find the board at a price that may exceed her morning line.

Race 8

8:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Lady Lottie looks poised to handle this claiming field from just off the pace — she owns the top TrackWiz rating and a career win percentage that stands out in a wide-open eight-horse field where the morning line chalk doesn't match the best numbers.

win6Lady LottieML 4/1

Lady Lottie (No. 6) earns the win call with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — the best in the field by more than seven points — and backs it up with a 27% career win rate that leads all entrants. Luis Raul Rivera takes the mount for Jeffrey Radosevich, a trainer who has been active all day at Thistledown and clearly has his horses pointed. At 4/1, she's not a giveaway price, but the combination of top rating, top win percentage, and a 53 average speed figure makes her the most complete profile in the field.

place5Feeling EasyML 5/1

Feeling Easy (No. 5) brings a 78.54 TrackWiz rating — second best in the race — and Rocco Bowen rides for the Nestor Rivera barn, which also has Kat Trax in this field. The 5/1 morning line is generous given her figures, and while an 11% career win rate is on the lower end, she's clearly competitive on raw speed. She's the logical place horse if Lady Lottie handles things up front.

show8Holidays Army BratML 3/1

Holidays Army Brat (No. 8) is priced at 3/1 on the morning line — shorter than both the place pick — yet her 67.8 TrackWiz rating slots her third in the field, which is right where we have her. Ricardo Feliciano rides for Jevon Crumley, and a 53 average speed figure puts her in the competitive range. She's a bit of a pace question mark, but in a six-furlong sprint, horses that can find cover and close tend to hit the board — include her in your trifectas.

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Bottom line: Thistledown's August 4 card is a workmanlike but winnable eight-race slate on a gorgeous afternoon. Classy Disposition is the most confident free play on the board, Vdaytothetenacious looks like the class of the premium half, and there's enough pace intrigue throughout the card to keep exotic players engaged all afternoon. Subscribers get the complete picture — pace projections, ticket structures, and every pick — all in one place. Let's cash some tickets.

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