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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — July 22, 2026

July 22, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

This card ran on July 22, 2026.

Best bets at Thistledown, July 22, 2026

Race 11Miss ClassifiedML 2/112:50 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

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It's a crisp Wednesday afternoon at Thistledown — 66°F under partly cloudy skies — and the track is serving up a tight 8-race all-dirt card that has our TrackWiz models buzzing. Conditions look close to ideal for fast times, with no rain in the picture to soften things up. That matters on a surface where early speed can be a real weapon.

The card is a solid mid-week mix of Claiming races, a Maiden Special Weight, and a pair of Starter Optional Claiming events that tend to attract some of the more interesting form angles of the week. Three of those races are free to all TrackWiz users, so whether you're a casual bettor or a full-card grinder, there's something here for you today.

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Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A clear top-two emerge on the TrackWiz ratings in this mile claiming opener, but a deep nine-horse field and several horses with solid career win percentages could make the exacta interesting.

win1Miss ClassifiedML 2/1

Miss Classified holds the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 88.54 and draws the rail in a one-mile trip that should suit a horse with tactical pace. The 2/1 morning line reflects the oddsmakers' respect for her profile, and the Feliciano family connection — Ricardo in the irons, Benny training — means communication between barn and saddle is seamless. Her 16% career win rate is modest on paper, but the rating gap between her and the rest of the field is substantial, and at a mile on dirt she has the profile of a horse that can sit off a pace and pounce.

place5Wicca WisdomML 7/2

Wicca Wisdom (No. 5) is the natural backup here, carrying an 80 TrackWiz rating and a 19% career win rate that actually outpaces the morning-line favorite. Trainer Johanna Urieta sends her out at 7/2, and with Deshawn L. Parker aboard, this one has the pedigree of a horse that can press or stalk and not quit late in a mile trip.

show2Star EllaML 6/1

Star Ella at 6/1 is the sneaky inclusion in the exotics — her 21% career win rate is the best in the field, suggesting she has a knack for hitting the board even when not at her peak. Alexander Chavez gets the mount for trainer Joseph Musarro, and at that price she's a worthwhile show ticket or trifecta anchor underneath the top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:20 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

More Love and Wauhatchie are separated by just three points on the TrackWiz scale and both post identical 55 average speed figures, setting up what looks like a genuine pace duel in this six-furlong starter optional claimer.

win2More LoveML 2/1

More Love tops this field with an 88.54 rating and the best career win rate of any horse in the race at an impressive 30%. Fernando Salazar Becerra takes the mount for trainer Ivan Calderon, and that 55 average speed figure ties for the field's best. At 2/1, she's the deserving chalk — the combination of dominant rating, highest win percentage, and top-end speed figures makes her the most complete profile in the field.

place6WauhatchieML 7/2

Wauhatchie is the horse that keeps this honest — an 85.45 rating and an 18% career win rate, also clocking a 55 average speed figure. Luis Raul Rivera rides for trainer Richard Zielinski at a fair 7/2, and this filly projects as the most dangerous closer or presser in a field that thins out quickly after the top two. She's a strong place play in her own right.

show3Go WestML 3/1

Go West (No. 3) fills out the ticket at 3/1 with a solid 75.72 rating and that same 55 average speed figure shared by the top horses. Luis Antonio Gonzalez takes the call for trainer Kim A. Puhl, and at a price that offers some margin, Go West is worth a spot in exacta boxes and as a show hedge if the top two get into a speed duel and flatten out.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Our three free races span a range of distances and conditions, giving you a nice cross-section of the card to work with. Miss Classified headlines Race 1 going a mile on the dirt — a route distance where pace scenario and class history tend to separate contenders quickly. More Love follows in Race 2, a 6-furlong Starter Optional Claiming sprint where early foot figures to be at a premium on this surface. Then Race 3 brings us the Maiden Special Weight at 5 furlongs, where Empire Vybz carries the top TrackWiz rating despite a relatively modest morning line of 9/5 — that gap between model confidence and public perception is exactly the kind of spot we love to flag.

On a partly cloudy day with no significant weather disruptions, the dirt should be playing fast and true. Keep an eye on horses that like to stalk just off the pace — today's conditions don't scream front-runner bias, which could open the door for a closer or two to outrun their odds in the free races and beyond.

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Race 3

1:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

Maiden special weight sprints over five furlongs are always a puzzle, and with every horse sitting at 0% career win rate this is a true first-time-winner scenario where rating edges and speed figures do the heavy lifting.

win4Empire VybzML 9/5

Empire Vybz tops the TrackWiz ratings at 58.67 and posts a 54 average speed figure, tied for the field's best with The Ace Project. Sent out by trainer Jason DaCosta with Jerome J. Innis in the irons, this colt is installed as the 9/5 morning-line favorite — meaning the market largely agrees with our model. In a maiden sprint where every horse is still searching for that first win, having the top rating and the pace-friendly speed figure is a meaningful edge.

place1Idol GoldML 5/2

Idol Gold sits right behind the top pick with a 57.5 rating and a 53 average speed figure. Trainer Robert M. Gorham has two horses in this race, which can sometimes signal stable confidence in a particular runner, and Fernando Salazar Becerra is a capable pilot at 5/2. As the second-highest rated horse with a legitimate speed number, Idol Gold is a natural place play.

show6The Ace ProjectML 3/1

The Ace Project (No. 6) rounds out the ticket at 3/1 — he matches Empire Vybz's 54 average speed figure and carries a 56.67 rating that's just a sliver behind both top picks. Chelsey Keiser rides for trainer Timothy E. Hamm, and in a wide-open maiden field, having the same top-line speed figure as the favorite makes him a credible show play and trifecta component.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

2:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Perfect Date and Laketown Elly are separated by less than four rating points at the top of this six-furlong claimer, but Laketown Elly's eye-popping 42% career win rate makes this a genuine battle between form and raw talent.

win3Perfect DateML 5/2

Perfect Date leads our ratings at 87.81 and draws the three-hole with Jose A. Bracho in the irons for trainer Joseph M. Poole — a professional setup in a competitive field. Her 17% career win rate is respectable in a claiming context, and that 53 average speed figure suggests she handles this distance well. The 5/2 morning line is fair value for the top-rated horse, and in a race where pace could be contested, Perfect Date's profile fits a horse that can find position and sustain it.

place5Laketown EllyML 2/1

Laketown Elly is the horse you cannot ignore here — a 42% career win rate is extraordinary at any level, and her 84.01 rating confirms she belongs right at the top of this field. Luis Alberto Batista rides for trainer Craig Sweeting at 2/1, making her the co-favorite. The slightly lower speed figure (52) compared to Perfect Date is the only reason she slots in as our place pick rather than the top selection.

show2Midnight GoddessML 3/1

Midnight Goddess (No. 2) at 3/1 brings an 18% career win rate and the field's best average speed figure at 54, which matters in a six-furlong dirt sprint where early pace can be decisive. Trainer Hugo Andrade sends her out with Brandon Tapara aboard, and she's the logical third wheel in exacta and trifecta constructions — a horse with enough raw speed to be in the mix if the top two have any trouble.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

2:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Trainer Jeffrey Radosevich is playing both sides here, saddling the top two TrackWiz-rated horses in this five-and-a-half furlong claiming sprint — a rare intra-barn battle that makes the pace scenario particularly intriguing.

win2Quick RendezvousML 5/2

Quick Rendezvous (No. 2) leads the field with an 87.81 rating and a 54 average speed figure — the best in the race. Erik Barbaran gets the call for Radosevich, and the 25% career win rate shared with stablemate Kettle Kiss confirms this barn knows how to win. At 5/2 on the morning line, Quick Rendezvous offers the best combination of rating, speed figure, and tactical versatility in what figures to be a quick-tempo sprint.

place1Kettle KissML 3/1

Kettle Kiss (No. 1) is the other half of the Radosevich entry picture — same 25% career win rate as Quick Rendezvous but a 75.97 rating that ranks third in the field. Luis Raul Rivera rides, and while the 51 average speed figure trails her stablemate's, a horse with one-in-four career winning habits from the rail in a short sprint is a legitimate threat to hit the board.

show4Amy's StarML 9/5

Amy's Star at 9/5 is technically the morning-line second choice, and her 33% career win rate is the best in this field by a comfortable margin. Trainer Robin Schuster sends her out with Brandon Tapara, and a 53 average speed figure puts her right in the mix on pace. She's a value show play and a key inclusion in exacta boxes given how often she finds the winner's circle.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 6

3:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Three horses are clustered within one point of each other at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this one-mile claimer, and with multiple morning-line co-favorites, this race is set up for a photo finish.

win4WetzelML 2/1

Wetzel (No. 4) edges the field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and a 19% career win rate, with Jose A. Bracho in the irons for trainer Caryn Vecchio. The 2/1 morning line means there's no obvious overlay, but the narrow rating advantage over a field where the next two horses are also legitimate is enough to make him our top selection. At a mile on dirt, a horse with this profile can sit just off the pace and let a potentially contested early fractions work in his favor.

place6I Wanna WinML 9/5

I Wanna Win (No. 6) is barely a whisker behind on our ratings at 87.72 — and her 26% career win rate is the best in the top group. Trainer James R. Jackson has Luis Antonio Gonzalez up, and at 9/5 the market actually makes her the slight favorite. The name says it all: this is a horse that has made a habit of hitting the board, and in a mile race where pace could be honest, she's the prime place threat.

show1Sammy's SmileML 2/1

Sammy's Smile (No. 1) rounds out the ticket at 2/1 with a 76.32 rating and a 20% career win rate — Fernando Salazar Becerra rides for trainer David Wolochuk from the rail. She's the third-best rated horse in a race that's genuinely competitive at the top, and her career profile suggests she'll be in contention late in a distance race, making her a reliable show option and a must-include in trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

3:50 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Reign Champagne stands alone at the top of the ratings in this one-mile starter optional claimer, but three horses are bunched in the low-70s directly below her, keeping the place and show spots genuinely competitive.

win6Reign ChampagneML 2/1

Reign Champagne (No. 6) dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 88.54 — a 16-point gap over the next-best horse is a significant advantage. Trainer Kim A. Puhl sends her out with Luis Antonio Gonzalez aboard at 2/1, and her 22% career win rate suggests she converts at a solid clip. In a mile race with modest competition below her, Reign Champagne projects as a horse that can dictate or track pace and have enough left in the tank for the stretch drive.

place5RiobellaML 7/2

Riobella (No. 5) is the other Kim A. Puhl runner in the race, carrying a 71.54 rating and a 14% career win rate with Jefferson Skerrett in the irons. Skerrett and Puhl sharing two horses in the same field sometimes signals a preference — and that preference appears to be Reign Champagne — but Riobella at 7/2 with a top-five rating is a natural place play for horseplayers looking to stay in the trainer's pocket.

show3Rapido RosaML 4/1

Rapido Rosa (No. 3) at 4/1 brings a 71.38 rating and a 21% career win rate — the second-best win percentage among the top five horses. Jose A. Bracho rides for trainer Colby Williams, and in a race where the favorite is clear but the next tier is tight, Rapido Rosa's career hitting ability makes her a sound show play and a viable trifecta piece.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 8

4:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Vecchi tops the TrackWiz ratings in this competitive nine-horse six-furlong claimer, but Mobil Mission lurks as a strong second option and the field thins sharply after those two — meaning pace could set up perfectly for the top choices.

win5VecchiML 7/2

Vecchi (No. 5) leads all horses with an 86.35 rating for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, with Luis Raul Rivera in the irons at 7/2. The 6% career win rate is low, but ratings reflect current form and ability, not just past record — and this horse's profile suggests he's been competitive in tougher spots. In a six-furlong dirt sprint with a field that drops off sharply after the top two, Vecchi has the edge to control his own destiny.

place8Mobil MissionML 3/1

Mobil Mission (No. 8) is the second Radosevich entry in this race, carrying a 75.34 rating and an 11% career win rate with Jose A. Bracho getting the mount. At 3/1, he's clearly the second choice in the market, and in a sprint where pace will be contested up front, a horse with a stronger career win rate than most of the field and a top-three rating is the natural place play.

show4Seeking FreedomML 5/1

Seeking Freedom (No. 4) at 5/1 is the value inclusion on this ticket — a 59.51 rating that sits comfortably ahead of the remainder of the field, with David J. Haldar riding for trainer Rodney C. Faulkner. The 5% career win rate reads low, but in a race where the top two horses are from the same barn and could draw energy from each other in the pace, Seeking Freedom has the profile of a horse that can sneak into third at a rewarding price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

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A manageable 8-race card, near-perfect dirt conditions, and three strong free plays headlined by Miss Classified make this a fun Wednesday to be at Thistledown — in person or on your phone. For the full-card pace projections, exotic strategies, and premium picks on Races 4–8, the complete TrackWiz analysis is waiting for subscribers. Good luck at the windows.

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