Thistledown Picks & Predictions — July 23, 2026

Nina From Pasadena is right on Oaklyn's heels at 58.33 and goes as the 2/1 second choice, trained by Justin Radosevich with Humberto Haldar up. No avg speed is on record, which adds some uncertainty, but the rating differential between first and second here is razor-thin — just 0.67 points — making the place position very live. Radosevich has multiple entrants at Thistledown today, which suggests the barn is comfortable with the surface and conditions.

Mary Louise rates third in the field at 55.83 and is part of Jeffrey A. Radosevich's two-horse entry alongside Rosie B — that barn presence in a five-horse field is notable. Jose A. Bracho takes the mount at 7/2 on the morning line, and while there's no speed figure available, the rating holds up well enough to make her a logical show selection in trifecta play.

Bumper Sticker sits at 81.38 on our ratings — close enough to Dragon Hunter to make a pace scenario worth considering, and trainer Saul M. Morales goes with Alexander Chavez, who is aboard multiple horses on today's card. At 3/1 morning line, Bumper Sticker is the logical exacta partner, especially with an avg speed of 51 that's competitive. If Dragon Hunter gets shuffled in traffic or breaks awkwardly, Bumper Sticker is ready to pounce.

Lowells Legacy drops from the top two to a 60.40 rating, but that's still a clear third in this field with an avg speed of 52 matching the leaders. Trainer Jeff Fletcher puts Yuri Yaranga in the irons at 5/1 on the morning line, representing fair value for a trifecta slot. In a maiden race where the top two could fight it out, having a well-rated closer type like Lowells Legacy as the show horse makes trifecta construction sensible.

Estoico comes in at a 68.27 rating with a 20% career win rate — that winning percentage is notably strong and suggests this horse shows up ready to compete rather than just fill out a field. Trainer Marco Ibarra sends out Erik Barbaran at 9/2, and an avg speed of 52 is consistent over a one-mile route. The slight step down in rating from the top choice actually makes Estoico a value play for the place, especially with that 1-in-5 win rate backing up the price.

Rollin in Spiders rates third in the field at 66.08 with a matching 20% career win rate, and trainer Justin Radosevich — one of the more active barns at Thistledown today — deploys David J. Haldar at 7/2. An avg speed of 52 is right in line with the top contenders over this one-mile route, and the price on the morning line is surprisingly short given the show position, which implies show pool value elsewhere. Worth including in any tri or super ticket.

El Canelo One rates second in this field at 62.53 with an avg speed of 51 and goes at a fair 7/2 morning-line price under trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza and jockey Jose A. Bracho. There's solid consistency in the profile — rating and speed figure both align — and at that price, the place return could be attractive if the top-rated longshot leads the way. Solid exacta anchor alongside Son of a G Q.

Dublin Time is the morning-line favorite at 9/5, yet our ratings place the horse third in the field at 58.67 — suggesting the public may be overestimating this one. That said, trainer Robert M. Gorham puts Brandon Tapara up, and an avg speed of 52 is the best in the race, which gives Dublin Time a legitimate pace angle. Even if our ratings suggest overlay elsewhere, the speed figure keeps Dublin Time in the show mix for conservative tickets.

Pecks Not Bad rates second at 73.16 with a 17% career win rate and an avg speed of 54 — the second-best speed figure in the race — for trainer James R. Jackson with Deshawn L. Parker up. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is the natural second horse in the exacta, and the speed figure gap between first and second is narrow enough that Pecks Not Bad could push Magic Motown if the pace scenario develops favorably. Don't skip this one in the place pool.

Party Pooper brings the second-highest career win rate in the field at 27% — meaning more than one in four career starts has resulted in a win — and a TrackWiz rating of 65.75 makes this one a legitimate player. Trainer Johanna Urieta uses Luis Raul Rivera, and the avg speed of 53 is right in the pack. For trifecta bettors, a 27% career win horse at 3/1 is exactly the kind of show play that holds up its end of exotic payouts.

Sweet Vivian rates second at 61.69 with an avg speed of 51 and goes at 6/1 — a price that seems very generous for the second-best horse on our ratings sheet. Trainer Joseph M. Poole puts Humberto Haldar up, and the combination of a solid rating and a price that belongs on a longer shot makes Sweet Vivian an appealing exacta play underneath Isa Fortress. In a field where the favorite is overvalued, the second-best rated horse at 6/1 is exactly where value hides.

Tipsy Tulip is the morning-line favorite at 5/2, which will attract casual money, but a 57.50 TrackWiz rating places this one third in the field — meaning the public is likely overrating the favorite's chances. Trainer Megan Fadlovich sends Chelsey Keiser out with no avg speed figure on record, adding a layer of uncertainty. Still, the market backing keeps Tipsy Tulip relevant for trifecta construction, and if the top two falter, a well-supported favorite tends to pick up pieces.