Thistledown Picks & Predictions — July 23, 2026
It's a beautiful Thursday at Thistledown — clear skies, 72°F, and a fast dirt surface that should reward speed and set up clean, honest fractions all afternoon. Eight races are on the card, and the conditions couldn't be more ideal for handicappers who know what they're looking for.
The card leans heavily on maiden special weight events — five of eight races feature first-time winners or horses still chasing their debut victory. That means raw speed figures matter a little less and form reads, trainer patterns, and pace projections carry extra weight. There's also a pair of claiming races mixed in that offer some of the day's sharpest value angles.
TrackWiz has full analysis on all eight races. The first three are on the house — dig in free. Races 4 through 8 are where the card gets really interesting, and those are available to subscribers.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt
A wide-open maiden special weight going six furlongs on the dirt, but one horse towers over the field on TrackWiz ratings — expect the public to zero in on the morning-line chalk early.
Native Lucci is the class of this maiden field by a considerable margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — more than 20 points clear of second-best Chardu. Installed as the 2/1 morning-line favorite, trainer Rodney C. Faulkner sends this one out with an avg speed figure of 52, which ranks competitively in this group. Jockey Humberto Haldar takes the mount, and with no prior wins in the field to sort through, pure rating and workmanlike speed numbers make Native Lucci the straightforward top choice here.
Chardu checks in with a 68.23 TrackWiz rating and an avg speed of 52, putting the John Erdel trainee firmly in the second tier of this maiden field. At 7/2 on the morning line, there's decent place value here if Native Lucci handles the favorite's role cleanly. Jockey Chelsey Keiser has been active at Thistledown and keeps this one in the mix for the exacta.
All That Sass is the 3/1 third choice on the morning line and carries a 56.67 rating for trainer Justin Radosevich — a barn that also fields Laos Lucy in this same race, which shows stable confidence in the division. No avg speed figure is available to dig into, but the morning-line price suggests connections have reason for optimism, making her worth a slot in trifecta coverage.
Race 2
Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
This claiming sprint at 5.5 furlongs features a standout on paper, but a pair of interesting second-tier horses and some competitive career win percentages make the exacta and trifecta worth building out carefully.
I'm Him is the horse to beat, plain and simple — an 87.08 TrackWiz rating leads the field by a wide margin, and a 33% career win rate is exceptional at this level, meaning nearly one in three times this horse has entered the gate, it's come out the winner. Trainer Kevin Fletcher puts Luis Alberto Batista aboard, a jockey with plenty of Thistledown experience, and an avg speed figure of 54 ranks second in the field. At 3/1 on the morning line, the price is fair for a horse with this kind of profile.
Biscuits and Grits comes in at 9/2 with a 73.02 TrackWiz rating — a solid second-best in this field — and trainer Richard Zielinski also runs Gone in a Flash, suggesting the barn is double-handed and expecting a competitive showing. The avg speed of 53 is right in the mix with the majority of the field, and Brandon Tapara in the irons gives the horse a capable pilot. A 12% career win rate doesn't scream dominant, but the rating and price make this one a natural place target.
Country Ruckus grades out third on our ratings at 52.50 and shows the top avg speed figure in the entire field at 55 — that kind of raw speed in a 5.5-furlong sprint is worth noting, as horses with gate-to-wire tendencies can grind out a piece of the purse. Trainer Mark Maddox sends out Samuel Jimenez, and at 4/1 on the morning line, the show price should be reasonable if the speed figure holds up on a fast track.
Race 3
Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt
A tight, compact maiden sprint at five furlongs where the top three horses are separated by just about five rating points — pace and post position could end up mattering as much as raw ability in this one.
Oaklyn is the narrow top-rated horse at 59.00 and also carries the shortest morning-line price at 8/5, signaling strong market confidence from trainer David Wolochuk and jockey Chelsey Keiser. Crucially, Oaklyn is the only horse in this field with a recorded avg speed figure — a 52 — which gives our analysis something concrete to anchor to in a field of first-time starters or debut unknowns. In short-field maiden sprints, a measurable speed profile over horses with zero recorded figures is a legitimate edge.
Nina From Pasadena is right on Oaklyn's heels at 58.33 and goes as the 2/1 second choice, trained by Justin Radosevich with Humberto Haldar up. No avg speed is on record, which adds some uncertainty, but the rating differential between first and second here is razor-thin — just 0.67 points — making the place position very live. Radosevich has multiple entrants at Thistledown today, which suggests the barn is comfortable with the surface and conditions.
Mary Louise rates third in the field at 55.83 and is part of Jeffrey A. Radosevich's two-horse entry alongside Rosie B — that barn presence in a five-horse field is notable. Jose A. Bracho takes the mount at 7/2 on the morning line, and while there's no speed figure available, the rating holds up well enough to make her a logical show selection in trifecta play.
Our free selections kick off with Native Lucci in Race 1, a 6-furlong maiden special weight that posts an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest of the free races and one of the best marks on the card. On a clear, fast track like today's Thistledown surface, that kind of figure in a sprint distance commands respect. Race 2 shifts to a 5½-furlong claiming event where I'm Him (87.08 rating) looks like the class of the field at a 3/1 morning line — solid value if the odds hold. Race 3 is a 5-furlong maiden at the 8/5 chalk, where Oaklyn comes in as the clear favorite, though the shorter rating of 59 signals a more wide-open affair. Use Oaklyn as your anchor but leave room for upsets.
The connecting thread across these three free races: the fast, dry Thistledown dirt should favor horses who can get position early in these shorter sprint distances. Front-runners and horses who break cleanly will have a natural edge today — keep that pace scenario in mind as you build your tickets.
Full Card Analysis
Premium Content
Get the Full Card Analysis
Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.
Bottom line for today at Thistledown: Native Lucci and I'm Him are the two free plays with the most conviction behind them, and Lightning Speed in the Race 5 allowance is the premium headliner. The fast, fair surface means the best horses should run to their figures — stay disciplined, trust the data, and enjoy the card. Full analysis for all eight races is available to subscribers at TrackWiz. Good luck out there.