Thistledown Picks & Predictions — July 21, 2026

Captain Carney is the most logical underneath play at 5/2, posting a 57.50 rating that puts him comfortably second in the field. Trainer Marco Ccamaque sends this horse out with Erik Barbaran aboard, and the average speed figure matches Kukuk's — the gap comes in overall rating, not raw speed. In a maiden race where the favorite can be vulnerable to inexperience, Captain Carney is a legitimate place contender.

Have a Cigar opens at 7/2 with a 46.94 rating and is the clear third choice in our model for trainer Ivan Calderon. The speed figure of 50 is the lowest among the top three picks, so this horse will need to be forwardly positioned to make an impact over 5½ furlongs. Worth including in tri combinations as a show piece given the morning line prices ahead of it in the field.

Game Performer is essentially a dead heat with the top pick at 87.81, with Erik Barbaran up for trainer Michael L. Rone. The 5/2 morning line is fair value for a horse this close in the ratings, and the 10% career win rate mirrors Eileen's Desperado almost exactly. This is a great place play precisely because the two top-rated horses are so evenly matched — at least one of them is likely to hit the board.

Trouble Or Nothin rounds out the picks with a solid 70.28 rating and a 6% career win rate, sitting at 3/1 on the morning line for trainer Saul M. Morales. Brandon Tapara keeps the mount, a jockey who knows this circuit well. The rating gap behind the top two is real, but in a race where the frontrunners battle each other, closers like Trouble Or Nothin can sneak into the show spot — include this in tri combinations.

Rivers of Wealth is the genuine value play in this race, carrying a 72.74 rating — second-best in the field — while opening at 8/1 on the morning line. That's a significant underlay based on the model, making this horse the most attractive price on the board for trainer Rodney C. Faulkner, who also conditions the favorite. A barn that sends out two horses in the same race sometimes has a clear preference, so watch the tote, but the numbers strongly support Rivers of Wealth at this price.

Rascal Flash sits at 3/1 with a 64.58 rating and opens as the second choice on the morning line despite ranking third in our model. Fernando Salazar Becerra takes the mount for trainer Robert M. Gorham, and a 7% career win rate is consistent with the claiming level here. At 3/1, this is solid insurance in exactas and trifectas — not a standout price, but a reliable board threat.

Here Comes Dolly brings a 79.68 rating and gets the 8/5 morning line — making it the lukewarm favorite — but ranks second in our model behind Shes a Storm. Brandon Tapara handles the riding duties for trainer Richard Zielinski, and a 9% career win rate is respectable at this level. Use as a place play given the short price, and lean on Shes a Storm for the win in your exactas.

Wings of Heaven rounds out the top three at 78.97 and opens at 3/1 — almost identical to the place pick in both rating and morning line. Trainer Richard L. Genovese sends this one out with German Terraza in the irons, and a 15% career win rate ties for the best in the field. The tight clustering of ratings between the top three horses makes this a natural show play and a key part of any trifecta structure.

Fortissimo is the most intriguing horse in the race, coupling a 82.27 rating with a remarkable 33% career win rate and the best average speed figure in the field at 56. Rocco Bowen picks up the mount for trainer Timothy E. Hamm, and the 6/1 morning line looks like a gift on paper. This horse has finished first at a higher clip than nearly anyone on today's card — if there's any concern, it's the step up in class that the optional claiming conditions invite.

Atkins opens at 8/1 with a 62.14 rating and a 20% career win rate — the kind of horse that tends to quietly hit the board in bigger fields. Alexander Chavez handles the riding for trainer Caryn Vecchio, and the average speed figure of 54 is solid without being flashy. In a nine-horse field where pace is likely to be contested, closers with Atkins's profile can sneak into the exotic payouts — worth using in tri and super keys beneath the top two picks.

Johanna's Life is only 0.83 points behind the top pick at 57.50 and opens at 5/2, making this a value-neutral but model-supported place selection. Trainer Johanna Urieta also saddles Gamay in this race, but the higher rating belongs to the No. 7 horse, and Luis Raul Rivera handles the riding duties. The 54 average speed figure also ties for the field's best — in a race this tight, the place spot almost always belongs to a horse this close in the numbers.

Bottled Time sits third in our model at 54.17 with a 9/2 morning line, giving trainer Timothy E. Hamm's entry a touch of value relative to its rating. Rocco Bowen takes the mount, and while the 52 average speed figure trails the top two, this is a maiden race where the pace setup can matter more than raw figures. Include in trifectas as the third leg — the model supports it and the price is reasonable.