Daily Picks

Thistledown Picks & Predictions — July 21, 2026

Tuesday, July 21, 20268 racesThistledown

It's a soggy Tuesday at Thistledown — rain is falling at 76°F, and that changes everything. Wet dirt at this track can flip pace scenarios, punish front-runners who hate the kickback, and open the door for closers with a clean trip. If you're not factoring surface state into your handicapping today, you're leaving money on the table.

We've got a full 8-race card to dissect, with a mix of Allowance, Claiming, and Maiden Special Weight action spread across sprint distances. Five of the eight races go 6 furlongs on dirt, so pace scenario and gate speed are going to be recurring themes all afternoon. Buckle up — there's plenty to dig into.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A loaded allowance opener with three horses bunched near the top of the TrackWiz ratings, setting up a potential pace battle and a wide-open exotics race.

win4MellifluousML 5/1

Mellifluous tops our ratings at 84.17 and draws the 4-hole in what shapes up as a competitive allowance field. Trainer Kim A. Puhl saddles two horses in this race, which speaks to barn confidence, and Luis Antonio Gonzalez gets the call for what looks like the stable's top entry. The 5/1 morning line represents solid value given that edge in our model — this is a horse worth anchoring your exotics around.

place5Saving HeartML 3/1

Stablemate Saving Heart comes in with a 15% career win rate — one of the stronger figures in this field — and a TrackWiz rating of 80.52 that easily clears the mid-pack horses. Jockey Jefferson Skerrett keeps the mount for Puhl's barn, and the 3/1 morning line makes sense for a horse this competitive. If anything separates these two stablemates on race day, it may come down to pace setup and trip luck.

show6Drury LaneML 9/2

Drury Lane carries a 75.52 rating and an identical 16% career win rate to Aladante, but the class of the allowance conditions suits this profile. Luis Raul Rivera in the irons for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich is a workmanlike combination at this level, and the 9/2 price is reasonable enough to include in tri and superfecta bets as a hedge beneath the Puhl barn pair.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Over the Falls looks like a dominant class standout in this claiming sprint, but a pair of interesting underneath horses could make the exacta worth building.

win1Over the FallsML 9/5

Over the Falls sits atop the field with a commanding 88.83 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate — both figures that clearly separate this horse from the competition. It's also a notable dual role with Alejandro Gomez serving as both trainer and jockey, a combination that typically signals a handler who knows exactly what their horse needs. At 9/5 on the morning line, the price isn't generous, but the dominance of the rating makes this a strong win selection.

place4Midnight DrivenML 5/1

Midnight Driven is the eye-catching price underneath with a staggering 50% career win rate — by far the best in this field. A 72.74 rating backs that up as the second-best number in the race, and trainer Robert C. Cline sends this horse out at 5/1, which looks like a nice overlay if the win rate is even half a signal of current form. The danger is the low average speed figure, so watch the tote closely before the race.

show5Forever FlowingML 8/1

Forever Flowing at 8/1 brings a 20% career win rate and a 67.79 rating — good enough to carve out a spot in the exotics at a price that offers real value. Trainer Richard Zielinski runs two horses in this race, which can sometimes split connections' focus, but this one has the numbers to hit the board. Use as a show hedge and a bottom of the exacta.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight sprints over 5½ furlongs with a clear morning-line favorite drawing strong model support, but the MSW format means upsets are always lurking.

win2KukukML 6/5

Kukuk tops the TrackWiz model at 89.71 — a significant gap over the rest of this maiden field — and opens as the 6/5 favorite for trainer Nestor R. Rivera. Alexander Chavez gets the mount, a capable pilot in this circuit. In maiden races, these kinds of rating margins can be decisive when there's no established win record to complicate the picture; trust the model here and use Kukuk as your single in vertical wagers.

place3Captain CarneyML 5/2

Captain Carney is the most logical underneath play at 5/2, posting a 57.50 rating that puts him comfortably second in the field. Trainer Marco Ccamaque sends this horse out with Erik Barbaran aboard, and the average speed figure matches Kukuk's — the gap comes in overall rating, not raw speed. In a maiden race where the favorite can be vulnerable to inexperience, Captain Carney is a legitimate place contender.

show7Have a CigarML 7/2

Have a Cigar opens at 7/2 with a 46.94 rating and is the clear third choice in our model for trainer Ivan Calderon. The speed figure of 50 is the lowest among the top three picks, so this horse will need to be forwardly positioned to make an impact over 5½ furlongs. Worth including in tri combinations as a show piece given the morning line prices ahead of it in the field.

TrackWiz is giving everyone a free look at Races 1, 2, and 3 today, and honestly, this trio makes for a nice warm-up to the card. Mellifluous opens the day in an Allowance sprint at 5/1 on the morning line — that's a price worth respecting on a day when casual money might drift toward the chalk. In Race 2, Over the Falls comes in as the 9/5 morning-line favorite in a Claiming sprint and carries our highest confidence rating among the free picks. Then in Race 3, maiden runners take the stage and Kukuk sits as the 6/5 favorite with the top TrackWiz rating on the entire card at 89.71 — hard to fade that number in a field of unproven horses.

With the track playing wet, keep an eye on post position and early pace in these sprint races. Rail bias and traffic trouble can loom large when the surface gets sloppy, and all three of our free picks are worth watching closely in the first few furlongs.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses are separated by just 0.13 rating points at the top of this claiming sprint — a near-dead-heat between Eileen's Desperado and Game Performer that sets up a fascinating head-to-head battle.

win6Eileen's DesperadoML 2/1

Eileen's Desperado edges out the top spot with an 87.94 TrackWiz rating and opens at 2/1 on the morning line for trainer Richard J. Rettele with David J. Haldar in the irons. A 10% career win rate is modest, but the model separates this horse at the top for a reason — the average speed figure and overall form profile give it the slight edge over a very similar rival. At morning-line favoritism, the value is thin but the confidence is real.

place1Game PerformerML 5/2

Game Performer is essentially a dead heat with the top pick at 87.81, with Erik Barbaran up for trainer Michael L. Rone. The 5/2 morning line is fair value for a horse this close in the ratings, and the 10% career win rate mirrors Eileen's Desperado almost exactly. This is a great place play precisely because the two top-rated horses are so evenly matched — at least one of them is likely to hit the board.

show4Trouble Or NothinML 3/1

Trouble Or Nothin rounds out the picks with a solid 70.28 rating and a 6% career win rate, sitting at 3/1 on the morning line for trainer Saul M. Morales. Brandon Tapara keeps the mount, a jockey who knows this circuit well. The rating gap behind the top two is real, but in a race where the frontrunners battle each other, closers like Trouble Or Nothin can sneak into the show spot — include this in tri combinations.

Race 5

6:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Kettle Coalmine looks like a standout in a soft claiming field, but our place pick at 8/1 is the kind of value play that can turn the exacta into a big score.

win6Kettle CoalmineML 9/5

Kettle Coalmine tops this field with an 88.83 rating — matching the highest number we've seen on today's card — and opens as the 9/5 favorite for trainer Rodney C. Faulkner with David J. Haldar up. The average speed figure of 53 ties for the best in the race, and a 7% career win rate in a claiming field isn't a red flag — what matters here is the model score separating this horse from the pack. Straight win bets make sense at this price.

place2Rivers of WealthML 8/1

Rivers of Wealth is the genuine value play in this race, carrying a 72.74 rating — second-best in the field — while opening at 8/1 on the morning line. That's a significant underlay based on the model, making this horse the most attractive price on the board for trainer Rodney C. Faulkner, who also conditions the favorite. A barn that sends out two horses in the same race sometimes has a clear preference, so watch the tote, but the numbers strongly support Rivers of Wealth at this price.

show1Rascal FlashML 3/1

Rascal Flash sits at 3/1 with a 64.58 rating and opens as the second choice on the morning line despite ranking third in our model. Fernando Salazar Becerra takes the mount for trainer Robert M. Gorham, and a 7% career win rate is consistent with the claiming level here. At 3/1, this is solid insurance in exactas and trifectas — not a standout price, but a reliable board threat.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite isn't the top-rated horse in this claiming sprint for fillies and mares — Shes a Storm offers legitimate value at 4/1 in a race where the public may overcorrect to Here Comes Dolly.

win2Shes a StormML 4/1

Shes a Storm leads the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 despite opening at 4/1 — a clear overlay when you consider the morning line has Here Comes Dolly installed as the 8/5 favorite. Trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich saddles this mare with Luis Raul Rivera aboard, and a 15% career win rate over 5½ furlongs of dirt fits the profile here. When the model's top-rated horse isn't the public choice, that's exactly the kind of spot where value players can cash.

place6Here Comes DollyML 8/5

Here Comes Dolly brings a 79.68 rating and gets the 8/5 morning line — making it the lukewarm favorite — but ranks second in our model behind Shes a Storm. Brandon Tapara handles the riding duties for trainer Richard Zielinski, and a 9% career win rate is respectable at this level. Use as a place play given the short price, and lean on Shes a Storm for the win in your exactas.

show3Wings of HeavenML 3/1

Wings of Heaven rounds out the top three at 78.97 and opens at 3/1 — almost identical to the place pick in both rating and morning line. Trainer Richard L. Genovese sends this one out with German Terraza in the irons, and a 15% career win rate ties for the best in the field. The tight clustering of ratings between the top three horses makes this a natural show play and a key part of any trifecta structure.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance optional claiming field packed with horses carrying notable win percentages, but the top two in our model separate clearly from the rest — and the third pick at 8/1 is a genuine exotics value.

win4Vodka N GingeraleML 7/2

Vodka N Gingerale tops the field at 86.35 with a 27% career win rate — a strong combination of model score and proven ability to close things out. Trainer John Steve Cannon hands the mount to Chelsey Keiser, and the average speed figure of 55 ties for the best in the race. Opening at 7/2 in an optional claiming field where the horse could have been dropped but wasn't sends a quiet confidence signal — the barn clearly thinks they can win here at this level.

place6FortissimoML 6/1

Fortissimo is the most intriguing horse in the race, coupling a 82.27 rating with a remarkable 33% career win rate and the best average speed figure in the field at 56. Rocco Bowen picks up the mount for trainer Timothy E. Hamm, and the 6/1 morning line looks like a gift on paper. This horse has finished first at a higher clip than nearly anyone on today's card — if there's any concern, it's the step up in class that the optional claiming conditions invite.

show7AtkinsML 8/1

Atkins opens at 8/1 with a 62.14 rating and a 20% career win rate — the kind of horse that tends to quietly hit the board in bigger fields. Alexander Chavez handles the riding for trainer Caryn Vecchio, and the average speed figure of 54 is solid without being flashy. In a nine-horse field where pace is likely to be contested, closers with Atkins's profile can sneak into the exotic payouts — worth using in tri and super keys beneath the top two picks.

Race 8

8:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight going 6 furlongs with no career wins in the field — the ratings are tighter here than in any other race on the card, making this a prime exotics scramble.

win6Candy SprinklesML 2/1

Candy Sprinkles leads the model at 58.33 and opens as the 2/1 favorite with Erik Barbaran up for trainer Robert M. Gorham. An average speed figure of 54 ties for the best in the field, and in a tightly clustered maiden race, that edge in raw speed can be decisive over 6 furlongs on the dirt. The public is aligned with the model here, so there's no overlay, but the confidence in this pick is real — Candy Sprinkles is the right single if you're playing vertical wagers.

place7Johanna's LifeML 5/2

Johanna's Life is only 0.83 points behind the top pick at 57.50 and opens at 5/2, making this a value-neutral but model-supported place selection. Trainer Johanna Urieta also saddles Gamay in this race, but the higher rating belongs to the No. 7 horse, and Luis Raul Rivera handles the riding duties. The 54 average speed figure also ties for the field's best — in a race this tight, the place spot almost always belongs to a horse this close in the numbers.

show5Bottled TimeML 9/2

Bottled Time sits third in our model at 54.17 with a 9/2 morning line, giving trainer Timothy E. Hamm's entry a touch of value relative to its rating. Rocco Bowen takes the mount, and while the 52 average speed figure trails the top two, this is a maiden race where the pace setup can matter more than raw figures. Include in trifectas as the third leg — the model supports it and the price is reasonable.

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Bottom line: Thistledown delivers a compact, punchy 8-race card today, and the wet weather makes surface adaptability the X-factor throughout. Kukuk, Over the Falls, and Mellifluous are your free best bets to start the card strong. For the full-card breakdown — including pace projections, exotic ticket structures, and our premium picks across Races 4–8 — subscribers have everything they need waiting at TrackWiz. Not a member yet? Check out our plans at /pricing and get in before the first post.

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