Daily Picks

Thistledown Picks & Predictions — July 20, 2026

Monday, July 20, 20268 racesThistledown

It's a pleasant Monday at Thistledown — partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 76°F mean no weather headaches today. The dirt should be running true, and that sets the table for a full 8-race card where speed figures and pace scenarios figure to hold up exactly as you'd expect on a firm, fast surface.

We've got a nice mix of conditions spread across the card: claiming races bookend the day, a pair of allowance spots in the middle rounds, and a Maiden Special Weight for the youngsters in Race 3. There's also a Starter Optional Claiming mile in Race 4 that tends to draw some interesting form horses dropping into softer spots — always worth a close look.

Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers today, with our top picks spanning the early card. The back half of the card is where things get really interesting for premium subscribers — pace setups, value angles, and multi-race ticket construction are all in play.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Mo Swift looks like the class of this 6-furlong claimer, but the morning line suggests the public will make him tough to beat at a short price — the real question is who fills out the exacta.

win7Mo SwiftML 9/5

Mo Swift is the standout in this field and it isn't particularly close on our ratings — an 88.83 score is the best in the race by a comfortable margin. That 25% career win rate is elite for a claiming-level runner, and jockey Luis Raul Rivera gets a live mount here. At 9/5 on the morning line he won't offer much overlay value, but the numbers say he's the most likely winner in this spot.

place2Thistle QueenML 9/2

Thistle Queen carries the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 78.24, and Ricardo Feliciano is a capable pilot to keep her competitive. Her 14% career win rate is modest, but in a race where Mo Swift figures to attract most of the money, Thistle Queen could return solid place value at her 9/2 morning line.

show8Jilly Runs DeepML 5/2

Jilly Runs Deep rounds out our top three with a 76.47 rating, and a 16% career win rate shows she knows how to compete. Trainer Robert C. Cline has a consistent runner here — at 5/2 she's not going to be a price, but her profile makes her a reliable exotics anchor for trifecta coverage.

Race 2

5:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Crackle is the top-rated horse in this 5½-furlong dirt claimer, but Principia figures to attract favorite money despite a significantly lower rating — creating a potential overlay situation worth exploiting.

win1CrackleML 7/2

Crackle tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 — nearly seven points clear of second-ranked Starcourt — and posts the kind of profile that wins at this level. Luis Alberto Batista picks up the mount and the 15% career win rate shows Crackle has been productive. Trainer Khadeem Galloway has a live one at 7/2, and if Crackle fires her best effort this could be over early.

place7StarcourtML 5/1

Starcourt is quietly interesting at 5/1 on the morning line — a 79.54 rating is solid in this field and that 54 average speed figure leads the entire field. The 6% career win rate is low, but speed figures (which measure how fast a horse ran compared to par) are often a better predictor than raw win totals at shorter sprint distances. Noel Vigil has ridden this circuit well and could have Starcourt in a prime spot.

show2Whispering SeaML 12/1

Whispering Sea at 12/1 is our show selection and a legitimate longshot angle for exotic players. The 65.13 TrackWiz rating is third in the field, and a 16% career win rate suggests she's capable — she just doesn't always run to her ceiling. Fernando Salazar Becerra, who was aboard our Race 1 pick, knows the Thistledown oval and could get a clean trip from post 2.

Race 3

5:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Wide-open maiden special weight going 5½ furlongs, with several first-time starters making form assessment tricky — the separation at the top of our ratings is narrow and pace will matter.

win8Breakheart PassML 5/2

Breakheart Pass earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 57.5 and draws the morning-line favoritism at 5/2, suggesting the market agrees. Trainer Robert C. Cline saddles two horses in this race, and Santiago Gonzalez gets the nod on Breakheart Pass — that choice of mount from the barn is a meaningful signal. In a maiden race with several first-time starters, any form edge matters, and Breakheart Pass appears to provide it.

place1First TimberML 3/1

First Timber is right on Breakheart Pass's heels at a 56.67 rating and posts a 52 average speed figure — useful data in a field where several rivals show no recorded speed history at all. Luis Alberto Batista, who we liked in Race 2, takes this mount for trainer Jason DaCosta. At 3/1 on the morning line, First Timber could offer a smidge of value if Breakheart Pass draws the most action.

show2Down RiverML 4/1

Down River is our show selection at 4/1 — the 55.0 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the field and Erik Barbaran is a competent pilot. No average speed is recorded, which suggests a debut or limited data, but the rating model still sees enough to rank Down River ahead of most of this field. In a race this unsettled, having a 4/1 shot in your show spot is reasonable exotic coverage.

Our three free races today give you a solid early-card foundation. Mo Swift opens the day in Race 1 at 6 furlongs — a 9/5 morning line that our analysis rates at 88.83, making this one of the strongest confidence plays on the entire card. In Race 2, Crackle comes in at 7/2 over 5½ furlongs, offering a touch more value with a rating of 86.35. Don't overlook the sprint distance here — on a day with a true dirt surface, early speed could be hard to catch.

Race 3's Maiden Special Weight is the wild card of the free trio. Breakheart Pass opens at 5/2 with a rating of 57.5 — a reminder that maiden races carry inherent uncertainty. Our rating reflects legitimate upside, but these fields can be flipped by a first-timer flashing surprise talent. Play with appropriate bet sizing and keep your expectations grounded.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:20 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A tight three-way fight at the top of the ratings shapes this mile starter optional claimer — the morning line makes Dark Baron the 2/1 favorite, but our numbers say St. Louie Louie has the edge.

win5St. Louie LouieML 9/2

St. Louie Louie leads our TrackWiz ratings at 84.9 — just a hair above Dark Baron's 84.04 — but the 9/2 morning line means there's potential overlay value if the public leans toward the even-money horse. A 21% career win rate is solid for this level, and Ricardo Feliciano is a live rider who knows how to sit off a pace and pounce. At a mile on dirt, horses with stamina often reward patience, and St. Louie Louie profiles as exactly that kind of runner.

place2Dark BaronML 2/1

Dark Baron is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 and nearly matches our top rating at 84.04, so he absolutely belongs in your exotics. Trainer Kristina M. Tumblin has him positioned well off post 2 with Noel Vigil in the irons, and a 22% career win rate confirms this horse delivers results. Even if he doesn't get up to win, his profile screams place horse in a competitive mile.

show4Gucci ManML 3/1

Gucci Man sits third in our ratings at 76.58 and draws a logical spot at 3/1 on the morning line. Jose A. Bracho is aboard for trainer Richard Estvanko, and a 19% career win rate shows consistent competitiveness. With three horses bunched at the top of the ratings, Gucci Man is exactly the type you want covering your trifecta at a price that won't gut your ticket cost.

Race 5

6:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

Sadie's Ghost is our top-rated allowance contender here, but Invictus is the morning-line favorite and posts the field's best average speed figure — the pace scenario at a mile could be the deciding factor.

win4Sadie's GhostML 5/1

Sadie's Ghost tops our ratings at 84.17 and owns an eye-catching 33% career win rate — one of the highest in today's entire card. Trainer Richard J. Rettele puts Anthony Rodriguez up, and the 54 average speed figure matches the better runners in this field. At 5/1 on the morning line, Sadie's Ghost looks like a genuine overlay against a morning-line favorite drawing more market attention than our numbers think she deserves.

place6Carnival RockML 8/1

Carnival Rock is a compelling place play at 8/1 — a 77.01 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the field and a 25% career win rate is strong for an allowance horse. The 55 average speed figure is second-best in the race and suggests Carnival Rock runs fast enough to threaten. Fernando Salazar Becerra, busy on the card today, gives this horse a dependable hand, and if Invictus sets a hot pace, Carnival Rock may be ideally placed to pick up pieces late.

show3JupiterML 5/2

Jupiter is the morning-line second choice at 5/2, and a 42% career win rate is legitimately remarkable — the best of any horse in this field by a wide margin. The 72.05 TrackWiz rating slots him third overall, and trainer Nestor R. Rivera has a sharp stable. At 5/2 he won't be a price, but as a trifecta anchor for a value-heavy top two, Jupiter is exactly the kind of horse who shows up.

Race 6

7:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The morning-line favorite in this mile claimer is I'll Figure It Out, but our ratings put Smash at the top — this is the kind of race where the public could be handing out value.

win2SmashML 8/1

Smash earns the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 79.79 despite going off at 8/1 on the morning line — that gap between our numbers and the market odds is exactly the kind of overlay situation we look for. Angel I. Diaz pilots for trainer Justine Eder, and a 17% career win rate is respectable at the claiming level. At a mile, Smash's profile suggests a horse who can travel ground and fire late — if the pace up front gets hot, he could be rolling at the right time.

place5I'll Figure It OutML 3/1

I'll Figure It Out is the morning-line favorite at 3/1 and posts a 79.32 rating — barely a tick below Smash — so the market isn't wrong to key on him. A 24% career win rate is among the best in this field, and Jefferson Skerrett rides for his own trainer Jeffrey Skerrett in what figures to be a motivated effort. He's the horse to beat, and he belongs in the exacta either way.

show4Remember the FearML 6/1

Remember the Fear at 6/1 is our show pick with a 74.17 rating and a 54 average speed figure that ties for best in the field. Trainer Saul M. Morales has shown up on the card today with live horses, and Brandon Tapara is a steady hand. A 10% career win rate is modest, but at a mile on dirt, horses with raw speed figures often outperform their win totals when the pace sets up right.

Race 7

7:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Mandalay Sky is the clear top-rated horse in this 6-furlong allowance, but the morning line makes Drill Blitz the 2/1 favorite — our numbers say there's meaningful overlay on the top pick.

win2Mandalay SkyML 4/1

Mandalay Sky leads all runners in this allowance field with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and goes at 4/1 on the morning line — a generous price for the top-rated horse. Fernando Salazar Becerra has been active on the card today and picks up a strong mount here for trainer Israel Flores. A 14% career win rate is understated for a horse this highly rated, which may indicate Mandalay Sky has been competitive without always closing the deal — the kind of horse who can break through in a spot like this.

place6Drill BlitzML 2/1

Drill Blitz is the public's choice at 2/1 and backs it up with a 78.78 rating — second-best in the field. Jefferson Skerrett takes the assignment for trainer Gary L. Johnson, and a 15% career win rate shows he's a consistent performer at this level. Even if Mandalay Sky gets up to win, Drill Blitz's form suggests he'll be in the thick of it at the wire and represents solid exacta coverage.

show5ElopedatthederbyML 5/2

Elopedatthederby sits third in our ratings at 74.8 and draws the morning-line second choice at 5/2, which tells you the market respects this horse even while our numbers rank him third. Trainer Robert C. Cline has two horses in today's card and Mauro Cedillo is a capable pilot at 5/2. A 20% career win rate in allowance company is a legitimate credential, and as a trifecta insurance play in a race with a clear top two, Elopedatthederby makes sense.

Race 8

8:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Red Chips is our top-rated runner in the finale but goes off at 8/1 — with the public likely split between Mr. Redlegs and Playing for Keeps, this 6-furlong closer could produce an overlay winner.

win2Red ChipsML 8/1

Red Chips tops our TrackWiz ratings in Race 8 at 79.79 and yet the morning line has him at 8/1 — that's the kind of value discrepancy that gets our attention. Luis Raul Rivera has a strong card today and picks up this mount for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, who also runs Momma K's Boy in the race. A 25% career win rate is excellent for a claiming horse, and a 54 average speed figure is among the best in the field — Red Chips has the raw ability to win this race; he just needs to get a clean run at 6 furlongs.

place5ExcitementML 9/2

Excitement at 9/2 is our place selection with a 58.16 rating and the second-best average speed figure in the field at 55. Trainer Timothy E. Hamm also runs Golden Flag in this race, and Rocco Bowen gets the call on Excitement — suggesting the barn views him as the better bet between the two entries. A 17% career win rate and sharp speed numbers make him a logical foil for Red Chips in the exacta.

show3OvidML 5/1

Ovid rounds out our tickets at 5/1 with a 57.43 rating, and that 36% career win rate is tied for the best in the entire field — an eye-catching figure that suggests this horse has been a winner at some point in his career. Chelsey Keiser is steady in the irons for trainer David Wolochuk, and a 53 average speed figure keeps him competitive with the pace. At 5/1, Ovid is a workable trifecta piece in a race where the top two could be at generous prices.

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Bottom line for July 20 at Thistledown: Mo Swift is the top-rated play on the day, Crackle offers a touch of value in Race 2, and Breakheart Pass is a watchable maiden play with upside. For the full card — including Sadie's Ghost, Smash at big odds, and our exotic ticket structure — the complete analysis is waiting for subscribers. It's a good day to be at the track. Let's cash some tickets.

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