Thistledown Picks & Predictions — July 16, 2026

Pride and Attitude is the 7/5 morning line choice — actually the public's slight favorite — and carries an 85.0 TrackWiz rating that's right on the heels of our top pick. Ricardo Feliciano rides for Joseph M. Poole, and the horse's 7% career win rate is the one soft spot in an otherwise strong profile. That number keeps us from bumping Pride and Attitude to the top slot, but the raw rating says this horse should be hitting the board regularly — making the place spot a natural.

Exaltada at 9/2 represents the clear third choice in our model at 77.66 and gives exotics players a legitimate shot at a paying trifecta at a fair price. Victor R. Fernandez rides for Robert C. Cline, who as we noted in Race 1 is an active presence on today's card. The 16% career win rate actually matches our top pick's mark, which is encouraging — and in a field where the bottom half is clearly outclassed, Exaltada's rating puts her comfortably in the mix for the minor awards.

Razor Tap is the public's choice at 9/5 and does have a legitimate résumé — 14% career win rate, 52 average speed, and Luis Antonio Gonzalez aboard for trainer Kim A. Puhl, who we've seen is active today. The 70.76 rating keeps Razor Tap squarely in contention, and in a six-horse field a horse at near even-money with that profile should hit the board more often than not. We just think the value is with It's Last Call at the top, making Razor Tap our preferred place anchor.

Axcel at 12/1 is our show inclusion and might be the best-priced horse in the race if the board holds. The 70.52 TrackWiz rating is nearly identical to Razor Tap's, and a 53 average speed figure is actually the top mark in this field alongside Aces Mischief. Mauro Cedillo rides for Jacinto Lopez, and while 11% career win rate is modest, the pace setup in a mile race often rewards a horse who can creep into contention late — and that profile fits Axcel. At double-digit odds, a show ticket here is a smart hedge in trifecta construction.

Thanks Frank goes at 7/2 with an 18% career win rate and a 77.88 rating that's our second-best in the field — Jerome J. Innis picks up the mount for trainer Norman Rose. The 54 average speed figure is tied for best in this field alongside Little Vaquero and Dream On Baby, which sets up a pace scenario where multiple horses could be pressing early. Thanks Frank profiles as a horse who can sit just off that pace and pounce, making the place slot feel snug.

Dream On Baby is the public's pick at 9/5 and does own the field's highest average speed figure at 55 — Jason Simpson rides for Ricardo Gonzalez and the horse's 13% career win rate is workmanlike. The 77.19 rating is third-best among our top trio, which is why we slot it third rather than first despite the morning-line support. In a pace-heavy sprint, the fastest horse doesn't always win — but it almost always hits the board, making Dream On Baby a reliable show play.

Suzie Q's Sister is the standout value angle in Race 6 with a blistering 25% career win rate — the highest in this field — paired with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating and the 6/1 morning line. Luis Alberto Batista rides for trainer Jason DaCosta, who also has Lady Midshipman in the race but clearly has the two-horse barn edge here. A horse winning at a 25% clip in allowance company is one that belongs in every exotic combination you're building today.

Unfaithful Rose is the 8/5 morning-line favorite and carries solid credentials — 16% career win rate, average speed of 54, and Jose A. Bracho aboard for trainer Ethan W. West. The 81.31 rating puts her right in the thick of it, and in a field this competitive, the public's preferred runner hitting the board is far from a lock but is a reasonable expectation. We slot her third in our ratings, which is why she's our show rather than our top pick — use her in trifectas but don't rely on her alone.

Commissioner D is our second choice at 5/2 and the other horse you have to respect in this field — Jose A. Bracho rides for Justin Radosevich, and a 33% career win rate is exceptional at any level. The 85.9 rating is just a tick below Instigation, and the 53 average speed is solid. If Instigation gets caught in traffic or meets an unexpected pace scenario, Commissioner D has enough raw ability to steal this race outright — which makes the place spot both logical and potentially lucrative in exacta construction.

Coloryoureggs at 7/2 rounds out our top three with a 72.95 rating and a 25% career win rate that stands out against the middle of this field. Victor R. Fernandez rides for Robert C. Cline, who is having quite a card today with multiple runners. The 52 average speed is a slight step below the top pair, but in a race where the top two may press each other hard in a fast pace duel, a horse with a 25% win rate trained by an active barn is a natural trifecta closer.

Eagle Nest is the public's other 2/1 option and carries an impressive 34% career win rate for trainer Marco Ibarra — Erik Barbaran rides and the 54 average speed matches Reckless L J's top-field number. The 63.95 rating is a significant step down from our top pick, which is why we slot Eagle Nest second rather than first, but a horse winning 34% of the time is inherently dangerous in any race. Use Eagle Nest on top and underneath in exactas to cover your bases.

Specialized at 5/1 is the show play that catches the eye — a 41% career win rate is extraordinary and makes this horse one of the most intriguing in the field despite a 55.39 rating that's only mid-pack on our model. Fernando Salazar Becerra rides for trainer Robert M. Gorham, and in a speed-heavy 6-furlong sprint, a horse with that kind of win percentage history has clearly found the conditions it thrives in before. The rating may be modest, but the résumé says don't leave Specialized out of your trifecta tickets.