Thistledown Picks & Predictions — July 16, 2026
It's a beautiful Thursday at Thistledown — clear skies, 84°F, and a fast dirt track that should reward horses with early speed and clean trips. Eight races are on the board today, all run on the dirt, which means pace scenarios and surface preferences are going to drive everything this afternoon.
The card mixes Claiming and Allowance company throughout, giving us a nice spread of competitive spots to dig into. TrackWiz analysis flagged several strong angles early in the day, and the ratings back it up — three of our top picks are posting figures in the high 87–88 range, which is a healthy number for this level of racing at Thistledown.
With the strip playing fast and the heat on, horses that get to the front cheaply could be very tough to catch today. Keep an eye on pace scenarios as you work through the card — that edge is showing up repeatedly in our data.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
Three horses within a whisker of each other at the top of the TrackWiz ratings in this 5½-furlong dirt claimer — Mails Here, Condemnation, and Stormed Out set up a competitive exacta battle with little separating them on paper.
Mails Here lands at the top of our board with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating, the highest in the field, and draws the morning line at 7/2 — a price that should hold some value if the crowd follows the 5/2 favorite. Alexander Chavez picks up the mount, adding a capable hand in the irons. With a career win rate of 17% and an average speed figure of 54, Mails Here profiles as the most consistently productive runner in this spot. Trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza puts this horse out in a claiming condition where the number should be competitive, and we think this is the right race at the right time.
Condemnation is the public's choice at 5/2 on the morning line, and Rocco Bowen — a jockey who knows how to position a horse in a short sprint — gets the call for trainer Julie A. Pappada. The 86.19 rating is nearly identical to our top pick, which is why this is the safest place bet on the board in Race 1. The 11% career win rate is modest, but the raw speed (avg 54) and top-tier rating suggest this horse fires consistently enough to hit the board.
Stormed Out rounds out our top three and offers a solid show play at 9/2 morning line odds. Trainer Robert C. Cline also has Lunchatthelizard in this race, which can sometimes signal a stable with a strong read on the condition — and Stormed Out is clearly the preferred Cline runner here with an 82.18 rating. Jose A. Bracho rides, and with a career win rate of 13% against average speed figures matching the top of the field, Stormed Out looks like a natural for exotic coverage.
Race 2
Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt
Whiskey Point looms as a class standout in this 6-furlong allowance, but the pace scenario could get complicated with multiple horses capable of pressing early — making the exacta and trifecta worth constructing carefully.
Whiskey Point tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and posts the morning line's third-lowest price at 3/1, suggesting both the public and our model agree this is the one to beat. Luis Antonio Gonzalez rides for trainer Kim A. Puhl, a combination worth noting in these allowance conditions. The average speed figure of 54 is tied for best in the field alongside Total Silence, and a career win rate of 12% in allowance company underscores that this horse competes — it doesn't just fill out fields. At 3/1, you're not getting a steal, but the résumé backs it up.
Blake James sits second in our ratings at 71.18 and goes at 9/2 on the morning line for trainer Shane Meyers with Alexander Chavez aboard — a strong jockey booking. The 10% career win rate in allowance company is workmanlike rather than flashy, but the 53 average speed holds up in this field. As a place play, Blake James offers a reasonable payout window that covers the scenario where Whiskey Point gets pressured early and fades slightly.
Total Silence is an interesting show inclusion at 5/1 with an average speed figure of 54 — matching Whiskey Point's top-field number. The 7% career win rate is low, but in allowance sprints a fast horse who finds trouble or runs into a headwind can still hit the board, and Luis Raul Rivera gives Total Silence a capable pilot. At a potential double-digit show price, this is an exotic sweetener worth a ticket.
Race 3
Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
A two-horse standoff takes center stage as I Belong First and Pride and Attitude separate themselves from the field on the TrackWiz ratings — the rest are playing for show money in this mile dirt claimer.
I Belong First earns the top TrackWiz rating of the card's early races at 88.54, and Jose A. Bracho rides for Justin Radosevich in what looks like a prime spot. The 2/1 morning line reflects genuine public confidence, and for good reason — a 16% career win rate over a mile on dirt, paired with the field's highest composite rating, makes this horse the most complete package in the race. The 53 average speed may not jump off the page, but it's the consistency of the profile across our model that drives this to the top of the board.
Pride and Attitude is the 7/5 morning line choice — actually the public's slight favorite — and carries an 85.0 TrackWiz rating that's right on the heels of our top pick. Ricardo Feliciano rides for Joseph M. Poole, and the horse's 7% career win rate is the one soft spot in an otherwise strong profile. That number keeps us from bumping Pride and Attitude to the top slot, but the raw rating says this horse should be hitting the board regularly — making the place spot a natural.
Exaltada at 9/2 represents the clear third choice in our model at 77.66 and gives exotics players a legitimate shot at a paying trifecta at a fair price. Victor R. Fernandez rides for Robert C. Cline, who as we noted in Race 1 is an active presence on today's card. The 16% career win rate actually matches our top pick's mark, which is encouraging — and in a field where the bottom half is clearly outclassed, Exaltada's rating puts her comfortably in the mix for the minor awards.
We're giving away our best bets in Races 1, 2, and 3 — and this opening trio makes a compelling sequence on its own. Mails Here (Race 1, 7/2 morning line) gets things started in a 5½-furlong Claiming sprint, followed by Whiskey Point stepping up in a 6-furlong Allowance in Race 2 with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating that makes the 3/1 morning line look workable. Then comes I Belong First in Race 3 — our highest-rated free pick at 88.54 — stretching out to a mile in Claiming company where that class edge should really show.
All three races are on fast dirt today, and the through-line connecting these picks is straightforward: each horse profiles well for the surface condition and distance. If you're building a pick-3 ticket to start your day, this trio deserves a serious look as a foundation.
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Today's Thistledown card is tight, fast, and built for bettors who do their homework. I Belong First is our top-rated free pick to anchor your day, and Instigation (88.54, 2/1) is the name subscribers will want front and center in Race 7. Full pace projections, ticket structures, and the complete 8-race breakdown are all waiting for you — head to /pricing to unlock the full card. Good luck, and let's have a big Thursday at the 'Down.