Daily Picks

Thistledown Picks & Predictions — July 15, 2026

July 15, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

This card ran on July 15, 2026.

Best bets at Thistledown, July 15, 2026

Race 11Ronnis Second WindML 2/112:50 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

A free account opens race 2 too. Premium opens all 8, with AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet, which splits one bet across the horses you like.

Join Free See plans · from $9.99

It's a warm Wednesday afternoon at Thistledown — partly cloudy and sitting at 88°F — and the track is serving up an 8-race all-dirt card that has something for everyone, from maiden claimers finding their footing to allowance runners with real class. The heat won't just be in the air; there's legitimate pace and talent scattered across this card.

The mix of race conditions today is worth noting. We've got claiming races at multiple levels, a pair of allowance spots, a maiden special weight going a full mile, and a starter optional claiming race closing things out in Race 8. That variety means the pace scenarios shift dramatically from race to race — and that's exactly where the edges live.

TrackWiz analysis has identified strong top picks in each of the 8 races. Three of them are unlocked for everyone, so whether you're a subscriber or just getting started, you've got real plays to work with today.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A clear top-heavy allowance mile where the TrackWiz ratings are sharply separated — the top two horses grade out nearly 20 points apart from the rest of the field, but a pair of 53-average-speed horses lurk to complicate the pace.

win1Ronnis Second WindML 2/1

Ronnis Second Wind comes in with the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 88.54 — a significant margin over the second-ranked horse — and backs it up with a 31% career win rate that speaks to genuine class consistency. Victor R. Fernandez gets the call, and the connections with trainer Robert C. Cline are no strangers to this level. At a 2/1 morning line, the market agrees this is the horse to beat, and our analysis sees no reason to argue — the rating edge here is substantial enough to make him a confident best bet in Race 1.

place3Knock WoodML 7/2

Knock Wood shows an average speed figure of 53, tied for the field's best, and trainer Kristina M. Tumblin has this one positioned at 7/2 on the morning line. The career win percentage of 9% might give pause, but in an allowance field at a mile, a horse with the top raw speed and a competitive rating of 70.4 is a legitimate place contender — especially if the pace sets up for a closer.

show5Finally FridayML 5/1

Finally Friday brings a 36% career win rate — the best in this field — and that kind of strike-rate history from trainer Jevon D. Crumley suggests a horse that knows how to run competitively when conditions align. With an average speed figure of 53 matching Knock Wood and a TrackWiz rating of 69.03, she fits neatly into the exotic picture as a show play at 5/1 morning line odds that offer real value.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The 2/1 morning-line favorite carries the field's top rating by a wide margin, but the 9/5 second choice posts the best raw speed figure in the race — this six-furlong claiming sprint could come down to a sharp pace duel between two legitimate contenders.

win1Heza PistolML 2/1

Heza Pistol owns the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at 88.54, a number that stands well clear of the competition in what is otherwise a modest claiming sprint. Victor R. Fernandez and trainer Robert C. Cline are back together — the same combo we're following in Race 1 — and a 16% career win rate in a short field at this level is workable. At 2/1 morning line, the price isn't juicy, but the rating dominance makes Heza Pistol our top selection.

place7Tyson's Lil' StarML 9/5

Tyson's Lil' Star counters with the race's fastest average speed figure at 55 — a full tick better than anyone else in the field — and a TrackWiz rating of 83.83 that puts her clearly in the top tier. Trainer Valerie K. Shanyfelt sends her out at an intriguing 9/5 morning line, suggesting the connections feel confident. If she can use that speed advantage to establish position early in this six-furlong sprint, she's a real threat to win outright and a lock for our place coverage.

show3Dixie's MemoryML 6/1

Dixie's Memory at 6/1 is worth including in your exotics with a 20% career win rate — the highest among the non-favorites here — and a solid 63.42 TrackWiz rating from trainer Justin Radosevich's barn. Jose A. Bracho takes the mount, and this horse profiles as a mid-pack type who can benefit if the speed horses in this race set a hot pace and come back to the field in the final furlong.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

The free portion of today's card gives you a solid foundation to build on. Ronnis Second Wind opens the day in a one-mile allowance — that's a step up in class from claiming company, and our rating of 88.54 puts this horse firmly at the top of the field. At 2/1 on the morning line, you're not getting a gift price, but you are getting the most credentialed runner in the race. Over a mile on dirt at Thistledown in this heat, pace management is everything — watch how this one settles early.

In Race 2, Heza Pistol matches that 88.54 TrackWiz rating in a 6-furlong claiming sprint — a completely different animal than Race 1. Short and sharp, these sprinters will blast out of the gate and sort themselves out quickly. Then Race 3 shifts to maiden claiming territory, where H F S Memories draws our top nod at 5/2 despite a lower rating of 70.34 — expected in maiden ranks where the unknowns are plentiful. In maiden races, we're looking for the horse with the clearest upside, and that's who we've identified here.

Free with an account

Open the next race free

A free account opens the first 2 races at every track, and every race at our Track of the Day. No credit card needed.

Create a free account Sign in

Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An all-maiden claiming sprint where nobody has broken their duck yet, making this a wide-open puzzle — TrackWiz ratings separate the contenders more clearly than the morning line does, with the 5/2 shot grading out on top despite the 8/5 favorite carrying more public support.

win1H F S MemoriesML 5/2

H F S Memories tops the TrackWiz ratings in this maiden claiming field at 70.34, a meaningful edge over the morning-line favorite Markaway's 55.24. Trainer Justine Eder sends this one out from post 1 with Angel I. Diaz up, and at 5/2 the price represents solid value given the rating advantage. In maiden races — where form is inherently uncertain — leaning on a strong composite rating like this is one of the most reliable angles our analysis can offer.

place6Camp PerryML 2/1

Camp Perry draws the widest post in the field at No. 6 but carries a 58.33 rating — third-best in the race — and trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich puts Luis Raul Rivera in the irons, a combination that looks competent at this level. The 2/1 morning line actually makes Camp Perry the public's favorite, which underscores the intrigue: our win pick H F S Memories rates higher despite opening at longer odds, creating a place overlay scenario worth exploiting.

show2MarkawayML 8/5

Markaway is the betting favorite at 8/5 and Kristina M. Tumblin's barn is a known quantity at Thistledown, which explains the public support. The 55.24 TrackWiz rating trails our top two selections, but in a maiden race where pace and luck play outsized roles, including the morning-line chalk in your show position is a sensible hedge — she hits the board enough to keep trifecta tickets alive.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 4

2:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This 5½-furlong claiming sprint is a premium-level battle, with three horses rated above 76 in a six-horse field — the top-rated runner goes postward at just 2/1, but the trainer sending out two of the top three makes the pace scenario particularly fascinating.

win3QuixxML 2/1

Quixx tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 and comes in with an average speed figure of 54, tied for the field's best alongside I'm On Edge. Trainer Juan Pablo Silva saddles Quixx from post 3 with Luis Alberto Batista aboard, and at 2/1 morning line, this is a well-supported favorite that earns the top spot through legitimate data. An 18% career win rate in a claiming field at this distance is respectable, and the rating edge is strong enough to anchor your ticket.

place5I'm On EdgeML 5/2

I'm On Edge, also trained by Juan Pablo Silva, rates a strong 83.1 — second-best in the field — and matches Quixx with a 54 average speed figure. Having the same trainer run the top two rated horses is a double-edged sword, but I'm On Edge at 5/2 with Deshawn L. Parker gives you legitimate firepower for place and exacta purposes. If the pace sets up for a closer and Quixx gets into trouble, this stablemate could reverse the order.

show2Jen d'OroML 9/2

Jen d'Oro at 9/2 morning line brings the field's best average speed figure at 55 — a tick faster than either of the top-rated pair — and Rocco Bowen takes the mount for trainer Timothy E. Hamm. The 78.9 TrackWiz rating is third-best in a competitive field, and that raw speed number suggests she has the ability to dictate terms on the front end. At 9/2 she offers show value and trifecta inclusion at a price worth paying.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

2:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A seven-horse allowance sprint where the morning-line favorite and the top-rated horse come from different spots in the program — there's a genuine gap between the top three and the rest, but a 44% career win percentage lurking at 5/1 adds a wrinkle worth watching.

win2Country PromisesML 3/1

Country Promises grabs our top spot with a 87.08 TrackWiz rating and an eye-catching 36% career win rate — one of the stronger win-percentage marks you'll see from a non-chalk in an allowance field. Erik Barbaran gets the mount for trainer Robert M. Gorham, and with an average speed figure of 53, this horse is consistent and class-appropriate. At 3/1 morning line, the value is solid — you're getting a legitimate top-rated contender at a fair price, not a manufactured favorite.

place7MieshaML 4/1

Miesha rates second in the field at 84.82 and shows an average speed figure of 54 — matching Hot Princess for the field's best raw number. Trainer Michael L. Rone sends her out at 4/1 morning line with Luis Raul Rivera, and that 11% career win rate may look modest at first glance, but in a competitive allowance field, it's the overall rating profile that carries more weight. She's the kind of closer profile that can steal place honors if the pace gets heated up front.

show5Salute the KidML 2/1

Salute the Kid at 2/1 is the public's choice, and the 30% career win rate with an average speed of 54 justifies the favoritism to a degree. Trainer Gary L. Johnson places this one in a tough spot on the morning line, but a 76.49 rating still puts her clearly in the top tier. As a show play, she's essentially a safety net — if the two higher-rated horses above her hit the board, she's your insurance in trifecta construction.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

3:20 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt

An all-maiden special weight mile where nobody has broken through yet, but the ratings tell an interesting story — the two highest-graded horses open at 6/1 and 4/1, while the 9/5 morning-line chalk rates fourth in the field by our numbers, setting up a potential overlay situation.

win5RoyceML 6/1

Royce opens at a generous 6/1 morning line but carries the field's top TrackWiz rating at 82.71 — a notable gap above the rest of the field. Trainer David Wolochuk also saddles Nydini, our place pick, giving the barn a strong two-horse entry in this race. Mauro Cedillo gets the mount, and the 53 average speed figure matches the field's best mark shared by several rivals. When the top-rated horse in a maiden special weight is going off at 6/1, that's a value angle TrackWiz analysis gets excited about.

place3NydiniML 4/1

Nydini, the other Wolochuk trainee, rates 77.44 — second-best in the field — and Chelsey Keiser takes the ride at 4/1 morning line. With two horses from the same barn in a small six-horse field, there's legitimate trainer intent here, and Nydini's rating suggests she can run with the leaders and threaten the place spot. In a maiden race where pace collapses are common, having a second Wolochuk horse tracking through makes exotics particularly intriguing.

show6RebML 9/5

Reb is the 9/5 morning-line favorite and trainer Kevin Fletcher sends him out with Luis Alberto Batista, so the public support is real — but our numbers peg this horse fourth in the field at a 56.92 rating. That said, at 9/5 you're probably going to see Reb in the money frequently enough that ignoring him in show parlays is unwise. Including him as a show hedge while leaning on Royce and Nydini for win and place is the sensible structural play here.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

3:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A tight six-horse claiming sprint where the top-rated runner goes off at 2/1 but faces a serious pace challenge from a horse with a 40% career win rate — the pace scenario here could shuffle the order dramatically in the final furlong.

win1Queen KittyML 2/1

Queen Kitty owns the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at 88.54 — a number that stands significantly above any rival — and trainer Richard J. Rettele saddles her from the rail with Anthony Rodriguez in the irons. The 11% career win rate might look understated for a top-rated horse, but at the 2/1 morning line, the market is clearly on board with this assessment. In a short sprint field where pace can be brutal, a horse with this kind of rating edge is our confident top selection.

place4Her Own ShadowML 9/5

Her Own Shadow is the most intriguing pace angle in this race — a 40% career win rate is genuinely elite for this claiming level, and trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich teams up with Luis Raul Rivera for a combination that knows how to cash tickets at Thistledown. The 70.2 TrackWiz rating puts her clearly in the contention zone, and at 9/5 morning line, the public has noticed this one too. She's the main speed threat and a legitimate win contender if Queen Kitty faces any trouble.

show6Watch Me DaddyML 5/1

Watch Me Daddy at 5/1 adds Robert C. Cline and Fernando Salazar Becerra to the mix — and the Cline barn has been active on this card. The 69.62 TrackWiz rating is third-best in the field, and a 15% career win rate in a six-horse sprint suggests enough consistency to land on the board. At 5/1 in a race with a clear top-two confrontation shaping up, this horse offers genuine show value and trifecta utility.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 8

4:20 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The feature starter optional claiming mile shapes up as a battle between a 3/1 morning-line horse with the field's top rating and a tight cluster of six horses separated by less than 43 points in TrackWiz ratings — pace will be crucial over a full mile.

win3Puff'smagicdragonML 3/1

Puff'smagicdragon takes the top spot with a field-best 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate that's right in the zone for a horse pointing at a starter optional claiming mile. Trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich has been a consistent presence across this card, and Erik Barbaran is a capable pilot for the distance. At 3/1 morning line, this is a legitimate overlay — top rating, solid win percentage, and a connections combo that has shown up all day at Thistledown.

place1Ice BlastML 6/1

Ice Blast opens at 6/1 but carries the second-highest rating in the field at 74.35 alongside a 27% career win rate — both numbers that suggest more ability than the price implies. Trainer Nestor R. Rivera sends this one out from the rail with Alexander Chavez, and at a full mile, a horse with this kind of proven consistency in a starter optional field can absolutely get up for place honors. The 6/1 price in an eight-horse field makes this a genuine value play in your exactas.

show2CarilloML 5/2

Carillo at 5/2 morning line brings a 30% career win rate — the highest in this field — and a 73.08 TrackWiz rating that slots him just behind our top two selections. Trainer Valerie K. Shanyfelt, who also ran Tyson's Lil' Star earlier on the card, puts Luis Antonio Gonzalez up for a horse that knows how to finish. The combination of the field's best career win percentage and a strong trainer presence makes Carillo a solid show anchor and a key part of any trifecta ticket.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Bottom line: Thistledown's Wednesday card is deeper than a typical summer weekday at a regional track. Ronnis Second Wind and Heza Pistol are the headliners in the free plays, and there's a legitimate longshot case for Royce in the premium races. Play smart, stay disciplined in the heat, and let the pace tell the story. Full card analysis — including exotic ticket breakdowns for the Pick 3 and Pick 4 — is available to subscribers. See you at the windows.

← All Thistledown picks & predictions