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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — July 13, 2026

July 13, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

This card ran on July 13, 2026.

Best bets at Thistledown, July 13, 2026

Race 15Authoritarian GirlML 5/212:50 PM EDT

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It's a beautiful Monday afternoon at Thistledown — clear skies, 83°F, and a fast dirt track that should put a premium on early speed all day long. Eight races are on the board, stretching from sprints as short as 5½ furlongs all the way out to a pair of one-mile routes, giving bettors plenty of angles to work with.

The card mixes claiming races with allowance company and a Maiden Claiming opener, so there's something here for every level of handicapper. Conditions look ideal for big speed figures, and our TrackWiz ratings have flagged some sharp contenders — including a couple of morning-line overlays that could pay handsomely if they fire.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A clear class standout anchors this 6-furlong claiming opener, but there's enough firepower in the back half of the field to keep the exotics interesting.

win5Authoritarian GirlML 5/2

Authoritarian Girl is the one to beat here, and it's not particularly close on paper. Her TrackWiz rating of 87.81 towers over the field, and a career win percentage of 66% screams elite-level consistency for this company. At 5/2 on the morning line, Luis Antonio Gonzalez picks up a horse who simply wins more often than not, and the 6-furlong dirt trip looks tailor-made for her profile. Fade her at your own risk.

place1ColoryoureggsML 5/1

Coloryoureggs lands in the place spot with a solid 77.02 rating and a 25% career win rate that suggests she consistently hits the board. Victor Fernandez keeps the mount, and drawing the rail in a sprint isn't the worst starting point — she's capable of tracking the pace and staying honest.

show9Perfect AngelML 12/1

Perfect Angel is a legitimate longshot angle at 12/1 morning line with a 61.34 TrackWiz rating that sneaks ahead of several horses the oddsmaker prices much shorter. Jason DaCosta sends her out with Luis Alberto Batista up, and at those odds she's a prime exotics inclusion — the kind of horse who goes overlooked and quietly finishes third.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line favorite doesn't align with our top-rated horses here, setting up a potential overlay situation in what shapes up as a wide-open allowance sprint.

win1BeachglassML 12/1

Beachglass is our top selection at a juicy 12/1 morning line despite posting the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 73.96 — that's a significant price discrepancy worth attacking. Rocco Bowen is a capable hand for trainer Timothy Hamm, who also saddles Secret Valentine, signaling confidence in the barn's Thistledown form. The 16% career win rate looks modest, but the underlying rating says she's been running well, and double-digit odds on the top-rated horse is exactly the kind of value spot our analysis targets.

place3Vesper MartiniML 7/2

Vesper Martini comes in as the second choice at 7/2 with a 72.91 rating, nearly matching our top pick's number. Trainer Megan Fadlovich has her in a spot where the morning line respects her, and Mauro Cedillo's local experience keeps the connections grounded. She's a logical place alternative if Beachglass's price collapses at the windows.

show10BokehML 6/1

Bokeh at 6/1 rounds out the show pick with a 70.1 rating, making this an all-top-rated-horses exotics scenario. Justin Radosevich's trainee has the third-highest rating in the field, and with Alexander Chavez in the irons, there's enough class here to suggest a board finish in an allowance field where several entrants have question marks.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers today. Authoritarian Girl kicks things off in Race 1 at 5/2 on the morning line — a solid number that suggests the book respects her, and our rating of 87.81 backs that up on a fast Thistledown strip where dirt speed has been rewarding. In Race 3, Truest Air earns our highest free-race rating (88.54) and comes in as the 2/1 favorite in a Maiden Claiming sprint — that combination of strong rating and fair odds is exactly the spot we want to be in.

The real head-turner among the free plays, though, is Beachglass in Race 2 — posted at 12/1 on the morning line for an Allowance sprint. Our analysis flagged her as the top pick in that race despite the generous odds, which is the definition of a value play. On a clear, fast afternoon where pace scenarios are easier to read, keep an eye on how the early fractions develop — if the front end gets pressured, closers like Beachglass could pounce late.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden claimers are by definition a mystery — none of these horses have won — but two runners separate themselves sharply from the rest of a thin field.

win4Truest AirML 2/1

Truest Air tops our ratings at 88.54 and gets the 2/1 morning line to match, making this a case where the favorite is also legitimately the best horse. An average speed figure of 51 and trainer Michael Rone's placement suggest a horse pointed at a spot where she belongs. Luis Raul Rivera takes the mount in what looks like a prime opportunity to break the maiden in a manageable field of seven.

place3Silver BrookML 9/5

Silver Brook sits just behind at 80.07 rating with a stronger average speed of 53 — actually the best speed figure in the field. Luis Antonio Gonzalez rides for trainer Barbara Riley, and the 9/5 morning line makes her the oddsmaker's top choice despite our ratings tilting slightly toward Truest Air. Either horse could take this, and Silver Brook's speed edge makes her the safest place play in the race.

show1Oak MirnaML 12/1

Oak Mirna is a genuine surprise in the show spot, posted at 12/1 on the morning line but carrying a 72.76 TrackWiz rating that ranks third in the field — well clear of the horses priced around her. Fernando Salazar Becerra has a live mount here, and trainer Jose Atala sending her out at a price suggests there might be hidden upside. In a short field of seven maidens, a horse this well-rated at 12/1 is worth including in your exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

2:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Two horses stand well above the rest in this mile claiming test, and how the pace sets up between them could decide whether it's a wire job or a late charge that wins.

win5Call It a NightML 3/1

Call It a Night earns the top spot with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating, and at 3/1 she's reasonably priced for what looks like the best horse in the field. Luis Raul Rivera guides her for Jeffrey Radosevich — a trainer who has multiple runners on today's card, suggesting a barn in good form. The average speed of 54 holds up well around two turns, and a 14% career win rate in what can be a tough game still reflects competitive pedigree.

place4Daredevil DougML 7/2

Daredevil Doug at 7/2 is the clear second choice in our model with an 85.21 rating and, notably, a 22% career win percentage — the best win rate among the contenders in this field. Deshawn Parker picks up the mount for Jevon Crumley, and Doug's record suggests he's the type who runs hard and hits the board consistently. If Call It a Night gets outrun, this is the horse doing it.

show3Breeze the BayouML 9/2

Breeze the Bayou sneaks into the show spot at 9/2 with a 69.64 rating and the best average speed figure in the field at 54, matching the top pair. Jefferson Skerrett rides for his trainer Jeffrey Skerrett — a family operation with clear communication between the barn and the saddle. In a two-turn route where pace can set up closers, Breeze the Bayou has the profile to finish running.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

2:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The allowance morning line doesn't reflect our top-rated horse's true standing here — Kiss Me Quick looks undervalued at 6/1 in a competitive but navigable sprint.

win4Kiss Me QuickML 6/1

Kiss Me Quick checks in with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating — easily the highest in the field — yet the morning line has her at 6/1, which is precisely the kind of price gap our analysis loves to exploit. Fernando Salazar Becerra takes the mount for trainer Robert Gorham, and her 25% career win rate in allowance company backs up the model's confidence. With an average speed figure of 54 and a 6-furlong dirt trip that suits, she's our top value play on the card.

place1MinestressML 9/2

Minestress grabs the place spot with a 72.98 rating and a 33% career win percentage — one of the stronger win rates in the field. Jeffrey Radosevich has Luis Raul Rivera up, keeping a productive jockey-trainer connection intact. Drawing post one can mean traffic in a sprint, but her natural pace style and raw rating suggest she'll be competitive regardless.

show9ToastmasterML 7/2

Toastmaster comes in at 7/2 with a 70.47 rating and a 31% career win rate, making him one of the more consistent horses in the field by that metric. Rocco Bowen rides for Timothy Hamm — a trainer with two entrants today showing active stable presence. Toastmaster's profile fits a horse who keeps finding ways onto the board, and at that price he's a sensible exotics anchor for the show slot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 6

3:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A top-rated horse at a fair price squares off against a well-credentialed second choice — this one looks like a match race with a small but legitimate supporting cast.

win3Ekati's WayML 2/1

Ekati's Way is our best bet in Race 6, topping the field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and drawing the 2/1 morning line to confirm the crowd will be watching. Victor Fernandez rides for trainer Robert Cline — a combo with multiple entries today and clear confidence in this barn's current form. A 37% career win rate around two turns at a mile is legitimate, and the average speed of 53 holds up well against this allowance field.

place4VillianML 5/2

Villian at 5/2 is nearly as strong, posting an 83.14 rating and a 39% career win rate that's actually the best in the field. Laureano Sosa rides for Timothy Hamm, and this horse has the kind of winning habits that translate around two turns. If there's a pace duel up front and Ekati's Way gets involved, Villian could be the one coasting home — don't overlook him in exactas.

show6Henry MacML 5/1

Henry Mac rounds out our show selections with a 68.39 rating and the best average speed figure in the race at 55 — worth noting for a one-turn mile where sustained speed matters. Luis Raul Rivera takes the mount for Jeffrey Radosevich, and Henry Mac's 40% career win rate is the highest in the field, suggesting this is a horse who finds ways to compete. At 5/1, there's real value in including him underneath in tri tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

3:50 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Ironclad Alibi looks like a cut above in this Starter Optional Claiming mile, but Gray Day and Oklahoma Joe give the field enough depth to make the exotics worth playing.

win7Ironclad AlibiML 2/1

Ironclad Alibi is the clear top pick at an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark of any horse on today's card — and the 2/1 morning line reflects the public's awareness of that edge. Angel Diaz rides for trainer Justine Eder, who also has Aint No Bandleader in the race, giving the barn two shots at this purse. A 17% career win rate in Starter Optional Claiming company, combined with a 53 average speed figure, makes this a horse whose rating is backed by real performance data.

place1Gray DayML 3/1

Gray Day offers an interesting profile at 3/1 with a 70.88 rating and a 54 average speed figure that matches the top selections in terms of raw pace. Erik Barbaran rides for Marco Ccamaque in what shapes up as a pace-on pace scenario — if Gray Day gets to the front cleanly from the rail, he could dictate terms all the way around. His 12% career win rate looks modest, but the speed and rating suggest more competitiveness than that number implies.

show6Oklahoma JoeML 5/1

Oklahoma Joe at 5/1 lands in the show spot with a 61.97 rating and a clean profile for a one-mile trip. Alexander Chavez rides for Nestor Rivera — both active on today's card — and at a price that offers value over several shorter-priced horses with weaker ratings, Oklahoma Joe deserves a spot in your trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 8

4:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The closing sprint on the card features a legitimate overlay situation — our top-rated horse isn't the morning-line favorite, and that's where the value lives.

win6Chalon's FirstML 7/2

Chalon's First is our top selection at 7/2 with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and a 28% career win percentage that stands out in a field where most horses are in the teens. Erik Barbaran rides for Michael Rone — a trainer who knows how to place horses at Thistledown — and the 54 average speed fits the 5.5-furlong distance perfectly. Priced longer than the morning-line favorite despite a superior rating, Chalon's First is a value play worth backing.

place1Spice BagML 9/5

Spice Bag opens as the 9/5 favorite and carries a 79.77 rating to justify that favoritism, even if our model prefers Chalon's First at the top. Shane Meyers trains her for Alexander Chavez, and a 14% career win rate in claiming company tells the story of a horse who's competitive but not lights-out — ideal for a place spot where board finishes are the expectation. She'll likely go off close to even money, so backing her on top for value isn't the move, but underneath she's solid.

show4Fast Talkin ManML 5/2

Fast Talkin Man fills out the show spot at 5/2 with a 65.94 rating and a 16% career win rate. Ricardo Feliciano handles the mount for Jevon Crumley, who is no stranger to this level, and the 54 average speed figure keeps him competitive in a short sprint. In a three-horse top with two strong candidates above him, Fast Talkin Man is the logical third wheel for trifecta construction.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Bottom line: Thistledown's Monday card has real teeth. Truest Air is our strongest free-race selection, Beachglass is the longshot angle worth tracking, and Authoritarian Girl gives the opener a solid chalk to anchor your early tickets. For pace projections, exotic breakdowns, and the full analysis on all eight races — including Ironclad Alibi and Kiss Me Quick — the complete card is waiting for subscribers at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there.

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