Thistledown Picks & Predictions — July 13, 2026
It's a beautiful Monday afternoon at Thistledown — clear skies, 83°F, and a fast dirt track that should put a premium on early speed all day long. Eight races are on the board, stretching from sprints as short as 5½ furlongs all the way out to a pair of one-mile routes, giving bettors plenty of angles to work with.
The card mixes claiming races with allowance company and a Maiden Claiming opener, so there's something here for every level of handicapper. Conditions look ideal for big speed figures, and our TrackWiz ratings have flagged some sharp contenders — including a couple of morning-line overlays that could pay handsomely if they fire.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A clear class standout anchors this 6-furlong claiming opener, but there's enough firepower in the back half of the field to keep the exotics interesting.
Authoritarian Girl is the one to beat here, and it's not particularly close on paper. Her TrackWiz rating of 87.81 towers over the field, and a career win percentage of 66% screams elite-level consistency for this company. At 5/2 on the morning line, Luis Antonio Gonzalez picks up a horse who simply wins more often than not, and the 6-furlong dirt trip looks tailor-made for her profile. Fade her at your own risk.
Coloryoureggs lands in the place spot with a solid 77.02 rating and a 25% career win rate that suggests she consistently hits the board. Victor Fernandez keeps the mount, and drawing the rail in a sprint isn't the worst starting point — she's capable of tracking the pace and staying honest.
Perfect Angel is a legitimate longshot angle at 12/1 morning line with a 61.34 TrackWiz rating that sneaks ahead of several horses the oddsmaker prices much shorter. Jason DaCosta sends her out with Luis Alberto Batista up, and at those odds she's a prime exotics inclusion — the kind of horse who goes overlooked and quietly finishes third.
Race 2
Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt
The morning-line favorite doesn't align with our top-rated horses here, setting up a potential overlay situation in what shapes up as a wide-open allowance sprint.
Beachglass is our top selection at a juicy 12/1 morning line despite posting the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 73.96 — that's a significant price discrepancy worth attacking. Rocco Bowen is a capable hand for trainer Timothy Hamm, who also saddles Secret Valentine, signaling confidence in the barn's Thistledown form. The 16% career win rate looks modest, but the underlying rating says she's been running well, and double-digit odds on the top-rated horse is exactly the kind of value spot our analysis targets.
Vesper Martini comes in as the second choice at 7/2 with a 72.91 rating, nearly matching our top pick's number. Trainer Megan Fadlovich has her in a spot where the morning line respects her, and Mauro Cedillo's local experience keeps the connections grounded. She's a logical place alternative if Beachglass's price collapses at the windows.
Bokeh at 6/1 rounds out the show pick with a 70.1 rating, making this an all-top-rated-horses exotics scenario. Justin Radosevich's trainee has the third-highest rating in the field, and with Alexander Chavez in the irons, there's enough class here to suggest a board finish in an allowance field where several entrants have question marks.
Race 3
Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
Maiden claimers are by definition a mystery — none of these horses have won — but two runners separate themselves sharply from the rest of a thin field.
Truest Air tops our ratings at 88.54 and gets the 2/1 morning line to match, making this a case where the favorite is also legitimately the best horse. An average speed figure of 51 and trainer Michael Rone's placement suggest a horse pointed at a spot where she belongs. Luis Raul Rivera takes the mount in what looks like a prime opportunity to break the maiden in a manageable field of seven.
Silver Brook sits just behind at 80.07 rating with a stronger average speed of 53 — actually the best speed figure in the field. Luis Antonio Gonzalez rides for trainer Barbara Riley, and the 9/5 morning line makes her the oddsmaker's top choice despite our ratings tilting slightly toward Truest Air. Either horse could take this, and Silver Brook's speed edge makes her the safest place play in the race.
Oak Mirna is a genuine surprise in the show spot, posted at 12/1 on the morning line but carrying a 72.76 TrackWiz rating that ranks third in the field — well clear of the horses priced around her. Fernando Salazar Becerra has a live mount here, and trainer Jose Atala sending her out at a price suggests there might be hidden upside. In a short field of seven maidens, a horse this well-rated at 12/1 is worth including in your exotics.
Three races are open to all TrackWiz readers today. Authoritarian Girl kicks things off in Race 1 at 5/2 on the morning line — a solid number that suggests the book respects her, and our rating of 87.81 backs that up on a fast Thistledown strip where dirt speed has been rewarding. In Race 3, Truest Air earns our highest free-race rating (88.54) and comes in as the 2/1 favorite in a Maiden Claiming sprint — that combination of strong rating and fair odds is exactly the spot we want to be in.
The real head-turner among the free plays, though, is Beachglass in Race 2 — posted at 12/1 on the morning line for an Allowance sprint. Our analysis flagged her as the top pick in that race despite the generous odds, which is the definition of a value play. On a clear, fast afternoon where pace scenarios are easier to read, keep an eye on how the early fractions develop — if the front end gets pressured, closers like Beachglass could pounce late.
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Bottom line: Thistledown's Monday card has real teeth. Truest Air is our strongest free-race selection, Beachglass is the longshot angle worth tracking, and Authoritarian Girl gives the opener a solid chalk to anchor your early tickets. For pace projections, exotic breakdowns, and the full analysis on all eight races — including Ironclad Alibi and Kiss Me Quick — the complete card is waiting for subscribers at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there.