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Thistledown Picks & Predictions — July 9, 2026

July 9, 20268 racesAll Thistledown picks

This card ran on July 9, 2026.

Best bets at Thistledown, July 9, 2026

Race 17Chess Not CheckersML 5/212:50 PM EDT

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Thistledown is open for business on Thursday, July 9, with an 8-race all-dirt card that looks tailor-made for bettors who appreciate a fast, consistent surface. Skies are clear, temps are sitting at a comfortable 83°F, and there's no weather interference to muddy the analysis — pun intended. When conditions are this clean, the horses that fit the pace scenario on paper tend to deliver, and we've got a few of those lined up today.

The card spans a mix of Starter Optional Claiming, Allowance, Claiming, and Maiden Claiming company, so there's something for every handicapping style — whether you love dissecting class drops, identifying pace mismatches, or hunting live longshots in maiden fields. Eight races, three free previews, and five premium deep-dives. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

12:50 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A Starter Optional Claiming sprint with a clear top two on paper — but the pace scenario could set things up for a late runner, so don't sleep on the mid-price horses in the exotics.

win7Chess Not CheckersML 5/2

Chess Not Checkers (No. 7) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 87.81 and draws the morning-line second choice at 5/2, which gives you solid value relative to his profile. Jose A. Bracho gets the call, and with a 20% career win rate behind this horse, the connections look primed. His average speed figure of 54 ties him with We'll Do It Live for second-best in the field, and when you combine that with the highest composite rating in the race, he looks like the right play to key in your wagers.

place3Absolute MiracleML 2/1

Absolute Miracle (No. 3) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 for good reason — she carries an 80.41 TrackWiz rating and the field's best average speed figure at 55. The connections benefit from a barn-and-rider combo with Jefferson Skerrett riding for trainer Jeffrey Skerrett, and a 23% career win rate is tops in this field. If Chess Not Checkers gets up to win, Absolute Miracle figures to be right there for the exacta.

show6We'll Do It LiveML 9/2

We'll Do It Live (No. 6) at 9/2 is a solid show anchor with a 66.32 rating, a 20% career win rate, and a 54 average speed figure that keeps pace with the top contenders. Victor R. Fernandez has the mount, and the 9/2 morning line suggests the market isn't fully on board yet — meaning there could be overlay value if he drifts at the windows. He rounds out a logical 7-3-6 exacta/trifecta underneath.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

1:20 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile Allowance that shapes up as a two-horse race at the top, with Brick Ambush and Ed's Reward separating themselves from the rest of the field on ratings — though Channel Fury's 34% career win rate deserves a second look.

win1Brick AmbushML 9/5

Brick Ambush (No. 1) leads our TrackWiz ratings at 88.83 and goes as the 9/5 morning-line favorite in this mile Allowance. Luis Raul Rivera handles the riding duties for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, a combination worth noting. His career win rate of 19% is middle-of-the-pack in this field, but the ratings edge he holds over everyone else is significant — nearly six points clear of Ed's Reward — and that kind of gap over a mile of dirt is hard to overlook.

place4Ed's RewardML 5/2

Ed's Reward (No. 4) is the most compelling place play on the board with a 35% career win rate that stands head and shoulders above every other runner in the field. Rocco Bowen picks up the mount for trainer Timothy E. Hamm, and a TrackWiz rating of 82.81 confirms he belongs right in the mix. If Brick Ambush gets loose on the front end, Ed's Reward with that pedigree of winning looks capable of running him down for second.

show6Full SpectrumML 7/2

Full Spectrum (No. 6) at 7/2 rounds out our show spot with a 65.64 rating and a 53 average speed figure that's right in line with the pace of the field. Erik Barbaran rides for the Jackson barn, which also saddles Channel Fury — so the connections clearly have confidence in both horses firing. At a possible overlay price, Full Spectrum gives you a sensible third slot in the trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Our three free best bets today center on a trio of horses who project well on a firm, fast Thistledown surface. Chess Not Checkers opens the card in a 6-furlong Starter Optional Claiming sprint — a distance and condition set that rewards horses with clean early speed, and our TrackWiz rating of 87.81 makes this one worth circling at a 5/2 morning line that still offers fair value. In Race 2, Brick Ambush stretches out to a mile in Allowance company and carries our highest free-race rating at 88.83 — a number that stands out in a route race where pace can get complicated. Round out the early card with Mshawish'girl in Race 3, another 6-furlong Allowance who rates 87.08 and offers a touch more upside at 3/1 on the morning line.

The common thread across all three? TrackWiz analysis points to horses whose figures are legitimate for today's conditions — no excuses races, no hoping for pace collapse. On a clear-day, fast-surface afternoon at Thistledown, those are exactly the profiles you want to anchor your card around.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

1:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Fascinating short-field Allowance where the morning-line favorite and the second choice both carry 50% career win rates, but neither tops our TrackWiz ratings — creating a genuine opinion split that makes this race worth playing.

win3Mshawish'girlML 3/1

Mshawish'girl (No. 3) is our top-rated horse in this race at 87.08, going off at 3/1 on the morning line — better value than both of the short-priced horses above her on paper. Victor R. Fernandez takes the ride for trainer Robert C. Cline, and her 20% career win rate is actually in the same neighborhood as Over the Falls. The key here is the ratings gap: she's more than 29 points clear of Ryka and nearly 34 points clear of Jasper Maximus, suggesting she's operating at a higher performance level despite not being the morning-line choice.

place1Over the FallsML 8/1

Over the Falls (No. 1) is a legitimate value play in the place spot at 8/1 on the morning line, coming in with a 57.12 TrackWiz rating and a 53 average speed figure that matches the field's median. What's intriguing is that jockey Alejandro Gomez is also listed as the trainer — a rare dual role that often signals a horse the connections know extremely well. At that price, she's a prime candidate to sneak into the exacta.

show5Jasper MaximusML 8/5

Jasper Maximus (No. 5) is the 8/5 second choice with a 50% career win rate that demands respect, even if the 53.86 TrackWiz rating leaves something to be desired relative to the top pick. Rocco Bowen rides for Tim Hamm, a pairing that shows up throughout this card. As a show option, the win percentage alone makes him too dangerous to leave out of multi-horse exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 4

2:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden Claiming over six furlongs with a field of first-time or win-seeking maidens — speed figures and workouts will do the talking here, and our top two are closely matched with the rest of the field very much in play.

win1GamayML 8/5

Gamay (No. 1) sits atop our TrackWiz ratings in this maiden field at 59.00 and carries the best average speed figure in the race at 55 — a meaningful edge in a sprint where early position can be decisive. Angel I. Diaz picks up the mount for trainer Johanna Urieta, and the 8/5 morning line reflects the market's confidence. In maiden races, speed figure superiority and inside post position are two of the strongest predictors — Gamay checks both boxes.

place4Martinez MojoML 2/1

Martinez Mojo (No. 4) is a close second in our ratings at 57.28 and draws the second-best morning-line price at 2/1, making him the natural place anchor. German Terraza rides for trainer Jacinto Lopez, and a 53 average speed figure puts him right in the hunt pace-wise. The tight gap between Gamay and Martinez Mojo suggests an exacta combining 1-4 is well worth your investment.

show5Lady SweetML 5/1

Lady Sweet (No. 5) at 5/1 is a sneaky show play with a 53.33 TrackWiz rating and a 53 average speed figure that matches Martinez Mojo stride for stride on paper. McKenna Anderson takes the mount for Ivan Vazquez, who also saddles No Indulgence in this race — the barn clearly has live horses here. At 5/1, Lady Sweet has enough upside to justify a spot in your trifecta.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

2:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The top TrackWiz rating and the morning-line favorite are pointing in opposite directions in this six-furlong Allowance, creating genuine handicapping tension — Redden at 5/1 looks like the value the public hasn't fully caught onto yet.

win5ReddenML 5/1

Redden (No. 5) packs the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.17 while going off at 5/1 on the morning line — a significant disconnect that TrackWiz analysis flags as a potential overlay. Victor R. Fernandez keeps the mount for trainer Robert C. Cline, the same barn sending out Mshawish'girl in Race 3. His 53 average speed figure and 11% career win rate don't scream superstar, but in a race where the public is leaning heavily on Sadie's Silver Kid, getting Redden at double the price of the favorite looks like exactly the kind of spot sharp bettors circle.

place4Sadie's Silver KidML 8/5

Sadie's Silver Kid (No. 4) draws the 8/5 favorite's tab and backs it up with a solid 77.88 TrackWiz rating and the field's best average speed figure at 54. Anthony Rodriguez rides for Richard J. Rettele, and a 14% career win rate is reasonable for this level. Even if Redden edges her out, Sadie's Silver Kid's combination of speed and public support makes her a near-lock for the exacta.

show3Sound CityML 5/2

Sound City (No. 3) at 5/2 is the logical show play — a 57.64 TrackWiz rating and a 53 average speed figure make him competitive without being dominant. Rocco Bowen picks up the ride for Tim Hamm, one of the more active barns on today's card. He doesn't project as a winner in this spot, but a top-three finish in a competitive six-furlong Allowance is a reasonable expectation, and 5/2 is fair value for show bettors.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 6

3:20 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Dynamic Gift sets up as a dominant figure in this six-furlong Claiming race with the top rating by nearly a nine-point margin — but He's My Boy and Silver Is a Gift make the exotics worth playing deeper.

win1Dynamic GiftML 9/5

Dynamic Gift (No. 1) leads this Claiming field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the same elite score carried by Brick Ambush in Race 2 — and goes as the 9/5 morning-line choice. Alexander Chavez has the call for trainer Hugo Andrade, who also saddles Silver Is a Gift. A 5% career win rate sounds modest, but the rating edge here is real: nearly nine points over the next-best horse in He's My Boy. In a Claiming sprint, that kind of separation usually holds.

place2He's My BoyML 2/1

He's My Boy (No. 2) is the natural place contender at 2/1 with a 79.54 TrackWiz rating and a 53 average speed figure — slightly better than Dynamic Gift's 52. David J. Haldar rides for Rodney C. Faulkner, and that speed figure edge could matter if the pace gets honest early. He won't need to run down Dynamic Gift to cash your place ticket, just stay close.

show5Silver Is a GiftML 4/1

Silver Is a Gift (No. 5) at 4/1 brings a 68.48 TrackWiz rating and hails from the Hugo Andrade barn — same connections as Dynamic Gift. When a trainer doubles up, it's often worth asking which horse they're higher on, but at 4/1, Silver Is a Gift represents real value for show bettors and trifecta players. A 4% career win rate keeps expectations measured, but the barn angle and competitive rating make her hard to leave off your ticket.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

3:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Onirico headlines this six-furlong Allowance with a gaudy 60% career win rate and the top TrackWiz rating, but Trouble in Motown's 42% win rate at 2/1 means the top two are going to be slugging it out — and Swayback Mobil could be the show price of the day.

win6OniricoML 9/5

Onirico (No. 6) is the most dominant-looking horse on today's entire card when you factor in both a 87.40 TrackWiz rating and a 60% career win rate — that combination is genuinely rare. Jose A. Bracho gets the mount for trainer Richard Estvanko, and the 9/5 morning line reflects a field that clearly respects this horse's record. At a 54 average speed figure, Onirico isn't just winning on raw pace — the overall profile here screams class, and fading a 60% career winner at short odds is a risky proposition.

place5Trouble in MotownML 2/1

Trouble in Motown (No. 5) is no pushover at 2/1 — a 42% career win rate ranks second in this field, and only Onirico's 60% tops it. David J. Haldar rides for trainer Justin Radosevich, and that 55 average speed figure is the best in the race, suggesting Trouble in Motown has the tactical speed to challenge up front. If Onirico has an off day, this horse will be the one beating him.

show2Swayback MobilML 10/1

Swayback Mobil (No. 2) is the value play of the race at 10/1 on the morning line, combining a 76.88 TrackWiz rating with a 54 average speed figure that's right there with the top contenders. Erik Barbaran gets the mount for Rey Juarez-Mendoza, and an 8% career win rate might look soft at first glance — but the ratings number suggests he's been running better than his win column shows. At double-digit odds, Swayback Mobil is a fantastic trifecta and exacta underneath option.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 8

4:20 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a maiden field where Kiddie Cocktail stands out as a clear class-of-the-field play — but Rock My Style and Instant Winner are close enough to keep the exotics honest.

win2Kiddie CocktailML 2/1

Kiddie Cocktail (No. 2) tops our TrackWiz ratings for Race 8 at 88.54 — the highest maiden rating on the card — and goes as the 2/1 morning-line choice. Erik Barbaran picks up the mount for trainer Robert M. Gorham, and a 52 average speed figure is competitive for this level. In maiden races, a rating this far clear of the field (nearly 15 points over Rock My Style) usually translates to a dominant effort when everything clicks, and Barbaran is a capable pilot to get the most out of her.

place4Rock My StyleML 7/2

Rock My Style (No. 4) is the strongest place candidate with a 73.63 TrackWiz rating and a 52 average speed figure that mirrors Kiddie Cocktail's. Jose A. Bracho rides for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich — one of the more active barns on today's program — and at 7/2 on the morning line, the price is right for an exacta underneath the top pick. In a maiden field, a horse with a solid rating and a competent barn rarely finishes worse than second or third.

show7Instant WinnerML 5/2

Instant Winner (No. 7) rounds out the show spot with a 69.69 TrackWiz rating and a 52 average speed figure, sitting at 5/2 on the morning line. Luis Raul Rivera rides for Michael L. Rone, and the name alone seems fitting for a horse we're putting in the show slot on the closer. At 5/2, the market respects this horse enough that he won't pay a ton to show, but he's a logical piece in a tri box with Kiddie Cocktail and Rock My Style.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Thursday at Thistledown is a clean, manageable card with some genuine value spots baked in. Lead off with Chess Not Checkers, Brick Ambush, and Mshawish'girl in the free races, and if you want to follow the money into the full card — including our take on Redden at 5/1 and a pair of Maiden Claiming sprints that could get very interesting — the complete TrackWiz analysis is waiting for you at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck at the windows.

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