Thistledown Picks & Predictions — July 14, 2026

Kozem rates at 75.99 — second-best in the field — and Fernando Salazar Becerra picks up the mount for trainer Caryn Vecchio at a morning line of 9/2. The 18% career win rate is modest but the raw rating is strong, and Kozem profiles as a horse capable of sitting just off a quick pace and grinding into second or third. In trifectas, keying Remember Me on top with Kozem underneath makes a lot of sense.

Twilight Vision is the morning-line favorite at 8/5, which is actually why our analysis slots her third rather than first — the value simply isn't there to win, but she's clearly talented enough to hit the board. Her 68.85 rating and 23% career win rate are solid, Luis Raul Rivera is a capable handler, and trainer James R. Jackson has her ready to compete. Use her underneath in exactas and trifectas rather than betting her to win at a short price.

Last Minute Mikey rates at a strong 83.02 and carries a 23% career win rate — numbers that make him a legitimate threat rather than a consolation place pick. Fernando Salazar Becerra is a capable pilot for trainer Julie A. Pappada, and at 9/2 on the morning line, there's real value in keying him underneath Roll On Big O in exactas. His spot at second in our ratings with only a 5-point gap to the top suggests he could exploit any stumble from the favorite.

Colonel Cooper draws Rocco Bowen for trainer Timothy E. Hamm and brings a 76.98 rating into a field where third place is very much up for grabs. His 17% career win rate is a touch below average but the rating holds up, and at 7/2, he might actually be overbet relative to the value on Roll On Big O — still, the consistency suggested by the rating makes him a reasonable show bet or trifecta inclusion. In a pace-honest 6-furlong dirt race, closers sometimes get there late, and Bowen knows how to find running room.

Driven for Success is the sneaky value angle in this race — an 82.71 rating and 18% career win rate for trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich, with Luis Raul Rivera up. At 6/1 on the morning line, he's a legitimate overlay based on the numbers alone; only a 3-point gap separates him from the top pick. If Val's Twinstar draws heavy action in the pools, Driven for Success could be the sharp play to place at a much better price.

Lil Bit sits at 2/1 on the morning line, making her the public's choice, but her 76.72 rating trails both Val's Twinstar and Driven for Success — and her 51 average speed figure is the second-lowest in the field. That said, a 30% career win rate is genuinely impressive and Fernando Salazar Becerra is no slouch. She's being backed on reputation and win rate, and she's capable of hitting the board, which is why she slots into our show position as a hedge rather than a primary target.

Gunner Gabriel offers a compelling place angle with a 30% career win rate and a strong 80.52 rating — second in the field — for trainer Johanna Urieta. Deshawn L. Parker takes the mount on a horse sitting at 9/2 on the morning line, and that price is attractive if Coastland draws the bulk of the win pool action. His 54 average speed figure matches the top horses here, and his consistency makes him a reliable underneath play in exactas.

Midnight Warship brings a 72.08 rating and a 25% career win rate for trainer Michael L. Rone, with Luis Raul Rivera handling the mount at 3/1 on the morning line. He profiles as a stalker type who could sit behind the expected pace and pick up pieces late over 5½ furlongs of Thistledown dirt. In a race where Coastland might command a lot of the early running, horses with tactical speed like Midnight Warship often find themselves in good position at the top of the stretch.

Candlelight Hours owns a 41% career win rate that's the third-best in the field and gives him legitimate credentials in allowance company. Erik Barbaran takes the mount for trainer James R. Jackson — the same barn as City Scene — which is an interesting stable setup worth noting. At 3/1, he's a fair price for a horse with that kind of career record, and if anything compromises City Scene, Candlelight Hours is well-positioned to capitalize.

Austrian Navy profiles as a solid underneath play for trainer Kim A. Puhl, with Jefferson Skerrett up and a 30% career win rate that compares favorably with most of the field. The 55.36 rating and 6/1 morning line make him a genuine overlay relative to his win percentage, and in an allowance field where the favorite will likely absorb most of the money, Austrian Navy could pay nicely in trifectas. His 54 average speed figure fits the distance, and Skerrett has been an active rider at Thistledown.

Tale of the Lyon rates at 71.00 and carries a 15% career win rate for trainer Justine Eder, with Angel I. Diaz in the irons. What catches our eye is that 54 average speed figure — the best in the field — suggesting she can press or set a pace that could earn her a share of the purse even if Lady Lottie has too much class. At 4/1, she's worth including in exactas as a horse who can throw a competitive effort when the speed figures show up.

Feeling Easy slots in at a 70.39 rating — essentially matching Tale of the Lyon — for trainer Nestor R. Rivera, with Rocco Bowen taking the mount. Her 5/1 morning line is attractive given that rating, and in a nine-horse field where pace traffic can shuffle things around, a horse with Bowen aboard often finds a clean path. She rounds out a logical trifecta structure with Lady Lottie on top and the speed-figure edge of Tale of the Lyon underneath.