Thistledown Picks & Predictions — May 11, 2026
Here's our expert breakdown of today's 8-race card at Thistledown. We've identified 3 standout races with strong plays — see our analysis below. Full card picks for all 8 races are available to TrackWiz subscribers.
Best Bets
Race 1
2026-05-11T16:54:12Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Tricky Tiger looks standout with daylight to the rest.
Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 85.2 for Race 1. Ridden by Alexander Chavez, trained by Nestor R. Rivera. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.30 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 23% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 36% win rate and finished in the money in 71% of races. 4 wins and placed in 13 of 26 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in 4 of the last 6 races. More than 1 win on today's surface/distance. Horse won last time it raced. 04/21/2026. Horse won last time raced at today's surface/distance. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List. Jockey appears in today's Top 50 Jockeys List.
Rating board at 79.8 • 23% career wins. Ridden by Victor R. Fernandez. For past year, Jockey has a 21% win rate and finished in the money in 63% of races. 5 wins and placed in 12 of 20 races on Dirt tracks.
Rating board at 78.8 • 30% career wins. Ridden by Erik Barbaran. For past year, Jockey has a 26% win rate and finished in the money in 65% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 30% win rate and finished in the money in 72% of races.
Race 2
2026-05-11T17:24:30Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Kerkyra looks standout with daylight to the rest.
Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 83.9 for Race 2. Ridden by Rolando Aragon, trained by Michael Evans II. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.79 sec/furlong. 1 wins and placed in 6 of 9 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in 4 of the last 6 races. Has placed in 2 of 3 races at 5 1/2 fur. Ranked 1st in workouts over last month at 11.80 sec/furlong.
Rating board at 76.9. Ridden by Chelsey Keiser. For past year, Jockey has a 19% win rate and finished in the money in 56% of races. 1 wins and placed in 6 of 8 races on Dirt tracks.
Race 3
2026-05-11T17:53:59Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt
Clear separation at the top of the rating board — Master of the Nite looks standout with daylight to the rest.
Tops the TrackWiz rating board at 86.3 for Race 3. Ridden by Luis Raul Rivera, trained by Jeffrey A. Radosevich. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 12.81 sec/furlong. For past year, Jockey has a 23% win rate and finished in the money in 59% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 29% win rate and finished in the money in 72% of races. 6 wins and placed in 18 of 34 races on Dirt tracks. Has placed in the last 2 races. Has placed in 5 of the last 6 races. Jockey & Horse combo has a 23% win rate and finished in the money in 59% of races. More than 1 win on today's surface/distance. Horse appears in today's Top 50 Horses List.
Rating board at 53.8. Ridden by Yuri Yaranga. Ranked 2nd for recent race speed at 12.75 sec/furlong. Has placed in 4 of the last 6 races.
Rating board at 52.5. Ridden by Alexander Chavez. For past year, Jockey has a 23% win rate and finished in the money in 62% of races. For past year, Jockey & Trainer Combo has a 36% win rate and finished in the money in 71% of races.
Our top picks for today focus on races with clear edges in speed figures, trainer form, and track bias. These are the spots where we see the most value on the board.
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Good luck at Thistledown today! Remember to check back for live odds updates and follow us for real-time picks throughout the card. Subscribe to TrackWiz for full access to every race at every track.