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Saratoga Picks & Predictions — August 28, 2026

August 28, 202610 racesAll Saratoga picks

Results are in — see the official Saratoga chart and payouts (our top pick won 6 of 10)→

It's a beautiful Friday at the Spa. Clear skies, 77 degrees, and a 10-race card that stretches from maiden sprints to a pair of turf stakes — this is exactly what late-August Saratoga is supposed to look like. The turf course figures to play fast and fair all afternoon, and with six of today's ten races contested on grass or in routes, pace dynamics are going to matter.

We've got a nice mix today: maiden fields where first-time starters can catch you off guard, a couple of claiming routes that reward class-figure handicapping, and two stakes races on the turf that close out the card with some serious upside. Whether you're here for a quick best bet or building multi-race exotics, there's plenty to dig into.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:10 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden turf sprint where morning-line favorites cluster tightly on ability ratings — the race shape could be decided by which first-timer shows the most professional turf action in the post parade.

win5RockabyeML 8/5

Rockabye opens at 8/5 on the morning line, and TrackWiz analysis backs that confidence with the highest rating in the field at 59. Trained by Miguel Clement and piloted by Manuel Franco — one of Saratoga's most dangerous jockey-trainer combos — this horse carries an average speed figure of 57, matching the top performers in the field. In maiden turf sprints, debut horses with strong workout patterns and elite connections tend to carry public support for good reason, and Rockabye checks every box.

place3Quartz MountainML 5/2

Quartz Mountain (5/2) brings Wesley Ward's grass-specialist fingerprints to the gate, and that matters enormously in a maiden turf sprint. Ward's barn is among the best in the business at prepping young horses for short turf runs, and Jose L. Ortiz picks up the mount — that's a formidable combination. An average speed figure of 57 ties for the field's top mark, making the 5/2 price fair but not generous.

show4BreakerML 9/2

Breaker at 9/2 gives you Todd Pletcher and Flavien Prat, which is never a combination to dismiss in a maiden special weight at Saratoga. His 54.17 rating slots him in the middle tier of this field, but his average speed figure of 57 matches the top horses, suggesting he has the raw ability to compete. As a show play in a wide-open maiden, the Pletcher debut angle is a legitimate reason to include him in your exotics.

Race 2

5:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

This dirt claiming sprint pits the field's two highest-rated horses — Ah Ca Ira and Bellacose — against each other in what shapes up as a pace-pressuring duel, with legitimate value lurking underneath if either big gun gets into trouble.

win2Ah Ca IraML 3/1

Ah Ca Ira sits at the top of our TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and opens at a juicy 3/1 on the morning line, making this one of the better value opportunities on the card. A 20% career win rate is solid for the claiming ranks, and Christopher Elliott has quietly been a reliable pilot at this meet. The average speed figure of 53 is consistent with the field, but the rating separation here is meaningful — this horse profiles as a closer who could benefit from whatever pace develops up front.

place7BellacoseML 9/5

Bellacose (9/5) is the morning-line favorite for a reason — a 42% career win rate is exceptional at any level of racing, and Brad Cox doesn't ship horses to Saratoga without intent. Manuel Franco gets the call, and that pairing has been dangerous all summer. The rating of 85.62 is nearly identical to our top pick, making this a legitimate 1-2 scenario that's worth attacking in exactas.

show3Miss LaoML 8/1

Miss Lao at 8/1 is worth a look as the show pick here, posting a 73.36 rating that stands third in the field by a comfortable margin. An 11% career win rate isn't flashy, but at this price in a field where the top two horses could set up a pace duel and tire, Silvestre Gonzalez could sneak her into the money. She's the logical beneficiary if the favorites beat each other up.

Race 3

6:16 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/8 mi · Dirt

Spoiler enters this 1 1/8-mile dirt claimer as a commanding morning-line favorite at even money, and the TrackWiz rating gap between him and the field is substantial — but at even money, you're betting whether he gets beaten, not whether he's the best horse.

win5SpoilerML EVN

Spoiler's 90.0 TrackWiz rating is the highest mark we've seen on today's full card, and Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard a Michael Maker-trained horse going long on the dirt is a winning formula at Saratoga. His 23% career win rate is respectable, and Maker consistently gets his horses ready to fire fresh or off short rests in the Spa's summer months. Even at even money, the rating dominance makes him the clear win choice — the question is whether you can build a profitable exotic structure around him.

place6Fever NightML 5/1

Fever Night (5/1) catches your eye as the clear second-best horse in the field with a 79.75 rating, trained by Linda Rice and with Jose Lezcano in the irons. A 17% career win rate at the claiming level is perfectly serviceable, and a horse who rates this well while opening at 5/1 suggests the market may be underestimating her. In a race where Spoiler is almost certainly taking money, Fever Night offers genuine place value.

show1Interlock EmpireML 4/1

Interlock Empire (4/1) rounds out our picks here with a 56.51 rating and a 12% career win rate — nothing that screams star, but Christopher Elliott has been consistent and Orlando Noda's horse figures to be pace-honest over 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. If Spoiler dominates and the pace scenario creates late chaos, a gritty stalker like Interlock Empire can find the show spot. A reasonable hedge in trifecta tickets.

TrackWiz is opening up the first three races for all readers today. Race 1 kicks things off on the turf with Rockabye sitting as the morning-line favorite at 8/5 in a 5½-furlong maiden sprint — a manageable distance to evaluate early pace and turf aptitude. Race 2 shifts to the dirt for a 6½-furlong claiming affair, where Ah Ca Ira (3/1) earns one of our higher ratings on the free side at 87. Then Race 3 stretches things out to 1⅛ miles on the dirt — a claiming route that tends to favor horses with proven stamina, and our top pick Spoiler comes in at even money on the morning line with a 90 rating, the highest score of the three free selections.

With firm turf and a fast dirt surface expected all day, front-runners and pace-pressers are worth leaning on in the sprints, while the route in Race 3 could play into closers who can settle early and conserve energy. Keep an eye on how the first couple of races develop — early pace shape will tell you a lot about how the rest of the card sets up.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:49 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

Shoot the Nickel owns the top TrackWiz number in this starter optional claiming sprint, but a field that includes multiple horses with 20%+ career win rates means the pace scenario and trip will matter — this isn't a rubber-stamp favorite situation.

win6Shoot the NickelML 5/2

Shoot the Nickel carries an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — the best in this field by a meaningful margin — and Flavien Prat picks up the mount for Linda Rice, who knows how to win at Saratoga. The 5/2 morning line reflects public confidence, and an average speed figure of 55 ties for the field's best. At 6 1/2 furlongs on the dirt, Prat's ability to find a clean trip from inside horses is a real asset, and we expect Shoot the Nickel to be in the thick of it late.

place5TizmarkusML 4/1

Tizmarkus (4/1) brings a 25% career win rate — the second-best win percentage among the key contenders — and a 76.42 rating that slots comfortably into the second spot in our analysis. Jose Lezcano has been underrated at this Saratoga meet, and trainer James Ferraro's horse figures to be forwardly placed in this sprint, which means he'll be right there if the favorite hits any trouble. A quality place play at a fair price.

show1NorwichML 3/1

Norwich (3/1) sports a 21% career win rate and a solid 69.36 rating, with Ricardo Santana Jr. getting the call for Fernando Abreu. What makes Norwich interesting as a show play is that 30% win-rate barn-mate Normandy Coast will also be in the field, potentially splitting the exacta field and creating confusion — Norwich's more manageable odds make him the cleaner ticket. He's honest enough to finish in the money even if he doesn't win.

Race 5

7:23 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Twelve horses spread across a wide morning-line range make this maiden turf route a handicapper's puzzle — the top three picks are separated by fewer than two rating points, and a clean trip around two turns will be worth more than a good post position today.

win12Revenge of the SisML 3/1

Revenge of the Sis (3/1) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 56.67 and gets the services of John R. Velazquez, whose experience navigating a full field around two turf turns at Saratoga is invaluable. Trainer George Weaver is a proven hand in maiden turf routes, and while this horse doesn't have a recorded average speed figure, Weaver's prep cycles for these kinds of races are typically patient and purposeful. At 3/1 with the top rating, this is our strongest opinion in a race full of uncertainty.

place10Mandy StephML 7/2

Mandy Steph (7/2) comes in with a 55.83 rating and an average speed figure of 54, giving Manuel Franco and Miguel Clement a live chance at a competitive price. Clement's barn has been active all meet and Franco is well-suited to rating a horse on the turf, which matters enormously going a mile and a sixteenth. The slight rating edge over third-ranked Bluegrass Princess makes Mandy Steph the cleaner play for the place spot in exotics.

show2Bluegrass PrincessML 4/1

Bluegrass Princess (4/1) represents Kenneth McPeek and Jose L. Ortiz — a combination that consistently finds the money in maiden turf routes at the top tracks. Her average speed figure of 52 is the lowest among our top three picks, but McPeek is known for having horses improve significantly from their first to second turf starts, and the 4/1 price makes her an attractive show ticket in a wide-open race. She's the kind of horse you want underneath in trifectas.

Race 6

7:57 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 1/2 fur · Dirt

An eleven-horse maiden dirt sprint with a spread field on the morning line — Freedom Charge and McMoon hold a clear rating edge, but trainer depth from names like Asmussen and Weaver ensures this won't be a walkover.

win7Freedom ChargeML 7/2

Freedom Charge (7/2) tops our ratings at 55.83 and gets Jose L. Ortiz for Steven Asmussen — that's a pairing that consistently fires in maiden sprints at Saratoga. The average speed figure of 54 is right in the pack, but what separates Freedom Charge is the overall rating profile and the caliber of connections who clearly have this horse pointed for a sharp debut. Asmussen trains first-time starters at a methodical, high-quality clip, and Ortiz rarely gets on a horse without strong intent.

place9McMoonML 4/1

McMoon (4/1) is the George Weaver entry with a 55.0 rating and an average speed figure of 55 — the best in the field. Edgard Zayas gets the mount, and Weaver's two-horse presence in the race (he also trains Five Grand) suggests he's got real firepower here. McMoon's higher speed figure relative to Freedom Charge makes him interesting as a place horse who could easily flip the result if the pace scenario sets up differently.

show11Hammerin HenryML 5/1

Hammerin Henry at 5/1 gives you Brad Cox and Manuel Franco in a maiden sprint, which is reason enough to include this horse in your show bets and trifecta tickets. His 53.33 rating sits third in the field, and an average speed figure of 54 keeps him competitive on the numbers. Cox excels at developing horses through their maiden starts, and Franco is the kind of pilot who can nurse a green horse into a money finish even if everything isn't perfect.

Race 7

8:32 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A loaded thirteen-horse stakes field on the turf at a mile and a sixteenth — Spirit of St Louis and Sounds Like a Plan set up a fascinating battle between the highest-rated horse and arguably the best value angle on the board, while Mi Bago gives the short price hunters a reason to stay involved.

win2Spirit of St LouisML 3/1

Spirit of St Louis (3/1) is the class of this field on TrackWiz ratings at 84.9, and a 47% career win rate is simply remarkable — nearly one in two starts results in a win. Chad Brown training for a turf stakes at Saratoga with Manuel Franco aboard is as reliable an angle as exists in American racing right now. The average speed figure of 55 ties several horses in this field, but the career win percentage alone puts Spirit of St Louis in a different tier.

place7Sounds Like a PlanML 6/1

Sounds Like a Plan (6/1) is a genuine value play here — a 46% career win rate that essentially matches the morning-line favorite, yet he's going off at twice the price. Horacio De Paz sends this horse out with Ricardo Santana Jr. in the irons, and an 82.71 TrackWiz rating puts him firmly in contention. If Spirit of St Louis draws heavy action and shortens further, Sounds Like a Plan becomes the most attractive exacta partner on the board.

show4Mi BagoML 2/1

Mi Bago (2/1) is the public's second choice with a 42% career win rate and an 81.55 rating — numbers that would make him the top pick in most other races on this card. Mark Casse sends him out with Jose L. Ortiz, and an average speed figure of 55 keeps him honest on the figures. Our preference for Spirit of St Louis and Sounds Like a Plan above him is razor-thin, making Mi Bago a must-use in trifectas and a reasonable show play for conservative bettors.

Race 8

9:07 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 3/8 mi · Turf

A nine-horse turf stakes going long at 1 3/8 miles — Evershed leads our TrackWiz numbers but faces a sneaky field that includes Awesomesauce at 8/1, and the extended trip could shuffle the deck for closers with tactical speed.

win1EvershedML 5/1

Evershed (5/1) tops our ratings at 81.0 and gets Flavien Prat — the leading jockey at this meet — for trainer Arnaud Delacour, who specializes in exactly this type of grass route. His 28% career win rate is solid, and an average speed figure of 54 is consistent with his main rivals. At 5/1 with the top rating in a nine-horse field, Evershed represents genuine value in a race where the morning line doesn't fully reflect his numerical advantage.

place7AwesomesauceML 8/1

Awesomesauce (8/1) is the most intriguing value play in this race — a 42% career win rate that's among the best in the field, paired with a 79.79 TrackWiz rating that puts him firmly in the conversation for the win. Jose L. Ortiz rides for Joe Sharp, and the extended 1 3/8-mile trip on turf could be exactly what this horse needs if he's been routing quietly. At 8/1 with those career numbers, he's seriously underpriced relative to his record.

show3WhitethornML 10/1

Whitethorn (10/1) gives you Todd Pletcher's patient approach to turf routing, and while a 14% career win rate and 10/1 morning line suggest he's an outsider, the 69.9 rating puts him in a competitive spot. Luis Saez is a quality jockey who handles routes well, and a 1 3/8-mile trip can create unexpected opportunities for horses who travel well through the middle fractions. At double-digit odds, Whitethorn is worth slotting into trifecta and superfecta tickets as a live longshot.

Race 9

9:41 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong dirt starter optional claiming race where City Blocks owns a significant rating edge, but Sweet Note and Sassy Princess make this a legitimate three-horse battle — pace will be key in a sprint with several horses who want to be on or near the lead.

win6City BlocksML 5/1

City Blocks opens at 5/1 on the morning line despite owning an 84.17 TrackWiz rating — the best in this field by a comfortable margin. Flavien Prat picks up the mount for Linda Rice, who is running two horses in this race (Heavenly Light is the other), suggesting she has full confidence in this one as the stable's primary threat. An average speed figure of 55 ties for the field's best, and a 17% career win rate understates what the rating model is seeing in her recent form cycle.

place9Sweet NoteML 7/2

Sweet Note (7/2) carries a 79.07 rating and a 33% career win rate — that's a horse who wins nearly one out of three starts and is going off at morning-line odds that suggest the market isn't fully respecting her record. Jose L. Ortiz aboard a Kinnon LaRose horse at 7/2 with those career numbers is a legitimate play to win, let alone place. She's the most logical horse to beat City Blocks if anything goes wrong with the top pick.

show8Sassy PrincessML 4/1

Sassy Princess (4/1) brings a 29% career win rate and a 70.4 rating — both solid marks for the starter claiming level — and Junior Alvarado has the ability to position her for a late kick at six furlongs. Trainer David Jacobson also runs Fugitive Star in this field, but Sassy Princess is clearly the barn's better horse on the numbers. At 4/1 with those career stats, she's a legitimate show play and a useful trifecta piece underneath City Blocks and Sweet Note.

Race 10

10:15 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The nightcap is a twelve-horse turf allowance sprint where Illmatic and Joker On Fire post nearly identical top ratings — a razor-thin margin at the top that could make exacta wagering in both directions equally appealing.

win1IllmaticML 7/5

Illmatic opens at 7/5 on the morning line with an 87.35 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in the field — and Flavien Prat can close out another impressive ride. Miguel Clement trains this horse in what has been a productive meet for his barn, and an average speed figure of 56 is near the top of this competitive allowance field. The 16% career win rate is lower than you'd expect for a horse this heavily favored, but the rating model has him clearly in a class above the field, and Prat excels in turf sprints.

place8Joker On FireML 3/1

Joker On Fire (3/1) posts a nearly identical 87.08 TrackWiz rating to Illmatic — a difference of just 0.27 points — making this as close a one-two matchup as you'll find all day. The standout detail is an average speed figure of 58, the best in the entire field, which suggests Joker On Fire has genuine top-end speed that could threaten if Illmatic gets into any trouble. Jose Lezcano rides for Bruce Levine, and at 3/1, Joker On Fire is the most compelling value exacta partner on the card.

show12Music in MotionML 7/2

Music in Motion (7/2) gives you Linda Rice and Jose L. Ortiz in a turf sprint — a reliable combination — with a 70.84 rating that comfortably separates her from the mid-field pack. A 20% career win rate and an average speed figure of 54 make her a consistent, honest performer who should find the money even if the top two rate above her. At 7/2, she's a smart show play and an essential trifecta piece in what looks like a three-horse race at the top.

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A clear day, a deep card, and some real value hiding in the back half — this is a good Friday to be at Saratoga, whether you're in the grandstand or watching from your phone. Spoiler in Race 3 is our top free best bet, and Evershed at 5/1 in the late turf stakes is the premium angle we're most excited about today. Full pace breakdowns, exotic tickets, and the complete 10-race card are available to TrackWiz subscribers — visit our pricing page to unlock everything before post time.

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