Saratoga Picks & Predictions — August 29, 2026

Feline Curious is the value play of the race — a 12/1 morning line on a horse with a TrackWiz rating of 73.96 is a genuine discrepancy that screams overlay. Tyler Gaffalione is a proven turf pilot, and trainer Kelsey Danner appears to have this one primed for a big effort. If the public ignores this horse in favor of the chalk, the place and exacta payouts could be substantial.

Instability exits the Chad C. Brown barn — arguably the premier turf stable in the country — with Flavien Prat in the irons, making this a dangerous 4/1 shot that the public may underestimate. A 33% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 72.77 confirm this is a horse with legitimate form, not just name value. Brown's turf runners at Saratoga routinely run big at this trip, and Instability is worth including in every exotic ticket.

Calling Card opens at 8/5 for trainer Linda Rice with Manuel Franco — though note that Franco appears listed on two horses in this race, so confirm the rider assignment closer to post. A TrackWiz rating of 78.17 and a 20% career win rate in a large field underpin solid credentials. This is a horse with enough class to sit comfortably in the place slot, and the morning line suggests the market views it as a co-favorite.

Sammy C Note draws Jose L. Ortiz for trainer Michael Miceli, and at 4/1 this is a genuine contender that could be undervalued relative to the top two in the market. A field-high average speed figure of 55 and a TrackWiz rating of 76.47 make the show position very comfortable, and a 12% career win rate in what looks like a competitive barn suggests the horse hasn't always had the ideal setup — this race looks like it fits.

Cruising Again is one of the few horses in the field with recorded race history, and an average speed figure of 54 combined with a TrackWiz rating of 54.17 gives us actual data to work with in a field full of unknowns. Dale Romans conditions this horse, and Kendrick Carmouche provides a veteran hand in the irons. At 9/2, the place slot on a horse with some real form is an attractive spot.

Badittude breaks from the rail for the Todd Pletcher barn with Tyler Gaffalione up — a formidable combination in any maiden race. The horse has a recorded average speed of 54 and a TrackWiz rating of 51.67 that puts it in the upper half of this field. At 6/1, this is a logical show play and trifecta inclusion, especially if pace pressure from the inside post puts Badittude in a good stalking position.

River Ride is a fascinating value play at 8/1 for the legendary Claude McGaughey barn with Jose Lezcano up. A TrackWiz rating of 64.11 is legitimately strong, and a 20% career win rate shows this horse can win. McGaughey tends to be patient with horses, which often means they arrive in peak condition when he does point them — the 8/1 looks like a fair opportunity for an exacta or trifecta play.

Shelzawa is trained by Chad C. Brown and ridden by Flavien Prat — two names you don't want to dismiss on the Saratoga turf at any price. A 50% career win rate is exceptional and leads the field among horses with meaningful records. The 3/1 morning line is competitive, and while we slot Shelzawa third in our sequence, the sheer quality of the connections makes this a must-use in exotics.

Deep Flame is the most logical race alternative at 3/1, trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Flavien Prat — a loaded combination in any stakes race. A 50% career win rate and an average speed of 56 match up well against most of the field, and a TrackWiz rating of 71.87 is solid. If anything beats Englishman, it probably looks like this.

Local Knowledge rounds out the ticket for trainer Todd Pletcher with John R. Velazquez up — a pair that knows how to compete in dirt sprint stakes at Saratoga. A 66% career win rate is genuinely impressive, and an average speed of 56 matches the top speed figures in the field. At 4/1, Local Knowledge offers enough value to anchor the show position and deserves a spot in any trifecta ticket.

Scottish Lassie opens at 7/5 with Jose L. Ortiz for trainer Jorge Abreu, and a TrackWiz rating of 80.76 makes this a genuine rival to the top pick rather than just a market second choice. A 33% career win rate and an average speed of 54 project well at a mile and an eighth. This is a horse that could very easily flip the result on the top pick if fractions set up favorably for her running style.

Margie's Intention at 12/1 is the kind of longshot-verging-on-value play that can juice a trifecta payout considerably. A 40% career win rate is legitimately strong, and trainer Brad Cox has the rare ability to saddle multiple competitive horses in the same race. Manuel Franco is a top-tier pilot who knows how to navigate routes, and a TrackWiz rating of 65.3 — while below the top two — is respectable enough to expect a piece of this.

East Jabip is trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, a formidable duo in turf stakes company. A 40% career win rate matches the top pick's win rate, and a TrackWiz rating of 75.51 confirms this horse belongs near the top of the ticket. At 6/1 on the morning line, there's legitimate value in the place and exacta slots, particularly if Deep Learning absorbs all the chalk action.

Nonconsecutivetrms is an intriguing 12/1 shot with John R. Velazquez aboard for trainer Brendan Walsh, who has a long history of producing sharp turf runners at Saratoga. A TrackWiz rating of 60.01 puts this horse in the middle of the pack, but Walsh-trained turf horses frequently outrun their morning lines at this venue. The 12/1 price makes this an excellent trifecta inclusion — the kind of horse that can turn a standard ticket into a big score.

Senior Officer is our preferred alternative at 7/2 for Brad Cox, who rarely shows up in a stakes spot without a horse that can compete. A 66% career win rate — matching the top pick's mark — and an average speed of 56 make this a legitimately dangerous runner. Luis Saez is one of the best dirt sprint riders in the country, and if the pace sets up for a closer, Senior Officer is well positioned to get the place or better.

Tip Top Thomas brings a 50% career win rate and a strong TrackWiz rating of 66.64 into this sprint for the Pletcher barn with Flavien Prat taking the mount. An average speed of 55 is competitive, and Prat's ability to get a horse in the right spot early in a stakes sprint is well established. At 5/1, this is one of the better show values on the card today — a great trifecta anchor.

R Disaster is a fascinating 5/1 play for Saffie Joseph Jr. with Tyler Gaffalione up — a barn and rider that consistently fire in sprint stakes conditions. A TrackWiz rating of 84.17 is just a hair below the top pick, and a 56% career win rate is excellent. This is one of the closest second choices we have on today's card, and the place ticket at 5/1 is a very appealing wager.

Eclatant checks in at 3/1 for Brad Cox with Manuel Franco aboard, and a 66% career win rate is the highest among the field's top-rated trio. An average speed of 56 matches the best in the field, and Cox clearly has this horse in form. The 3/1 morning line reflects legitimate market respect, and Eclatant belongs in every trifecta and exacta combination you're building in Race 12.

Renegade is our place selection at 3/1 for Todd Pletcher with Tyler Gaffalione up — a combination that performs consistently in dirt route stakes at Saratoga. A TrackWiz rating of 82.53 and a 37% career win rate are both strong, and Gaffalione's ability to rate a horse over a mile and a quarter is well established. If Golden Tempo misses the board, Renegade is the most likely beneficiary.

Sea Strike is a compelling show anchor at 5/1 for Chad C. Brown with Flavien Prat aboard. A 66% career win rate — matching Golden Tempo for the best in the field — is genuinely impressive, and an average speed of 55 is competitive at this trip. Brown's horses routinely get better as the distance lengthens, and at a mile and a quarter on closing day, Prat's patient style could have this one surging late into a trifecta spot.

Tax Holiday is trained by Chad C. Brown and ridden by Flavien Prat — that's about as strong a turf pedigree as you'll find anywhere on the card. A TrackWiz rating of 66.68 and a 33% career win rate project well over a mile and a sixteenth on the Saratoga turf, and an average speed of 53 is in line with the field. At 9/2, the place slot here offers real value, particularly if the short-priced favorites underperform.

That's How We Love opens at 6/5 as a co-favorite with a perfect 100% career win rate — an eye-catching stat that explains the market support. Ricardo Santana Jr. rides for trainer Philip Antonacci, and while an undefeated record naturally draws attention, we slot this one third behind two horses with stronger TrackWiz ratings. Use in exotics, but don't let the win record alone drive your wagering decisions.