Saratoga Picks & Predictions — July 31, 2026

Proud Foot is a sneaky strong place play at 7/2, rating second in the field at 86.35 with Manuel Franco in the saddle. The Kantarmaci barn conditions this one, and the 15% career win rate in a starter optional claimer is nothing to worry about at this level — the rating tells the real story. With an average speed of 54 and an elite jockey, Proud Foot should be right there at the wire.

Mursal brings a 25% career win rate — the highest among the three top picks — and Linda Rice sends her out alongside her stablemate Sheer Will at 3/1. Dylan Davis rides, and that's a capable book of business at this track. A 55 average speed figure mirrors the top horses in the field, and if the pace shapes up contentiously between the top two, Mursal's experience and consistency make her a natural show play.

I'm Worthy is the logical place anchor at 4/1, rating 76.54 — a fraction behind Noble Heritage but clearly in the elite tier of this field. Linda Rice has a strong Saratoga meet year after year, and Kendrick Carmouche is comfortable around two turns. At 16% career wins, she's no fluke, and the 53 average speed is consistent with a closer that can pick up pieces in a well-run mile and an eighth.

Who's Your Zaddy checks in at 76.52 on our model — a third consecutive horse in the 76-77 range — but the 25% career win rate jumps off the page and compares favorably to everyone else in this race. Ricardo Santana Jr. handles the mount for Amelia Green, and Santana is dangerous at any distance. At 6/1, this is the kind of show price that makes exacta and trifecta boxing very appealing.

Urgency is a fascinating place play at 6/1, carrying the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the race at 77.29 despite the modest morning line odds. Jose Ortiz, who already has a win pick in Race 1, gets aboard here for Richard Dutrow Jr.'s outfit — a trainer who knows how to have a horse cranked and ready. A 54 average speed figure is competitive, and at 6/1, this one offers real place-pool value in a field where casual bettors will key on the Chad Brown horses.

Vivaldi represents the Chad Brown-Flavien Prat powerhouse combo on the turf at 3/1, and that alone demands respect — Brown's win rate with Prat on the grass at Saratoga is a well-documented angle. The 76.24 TrackWiz rating puts Vivaldi third in our model, right in the exotics mix. A 54 average speed figure and that pedigree of connections make her a strong show anchor for trifecta plays.

Mindfield draws Flavien Prat for Mark Casse at 4/1, and when two Hall of Fame-caliber connections team up in a maiden sprint, you take notice. The 55 TrackWiz rating is just behind Yestahal in our model, and Prat's ability to find the right pace on a six-furlong dirt sprint is elite. No speed figure on record means this is a projection, but Casse has been hitting at a strong rate with first-time starters at Saratoga.

Freedom Charge gets Jose Ortiz for Steve Asmussen — another top-shelf combo — and rates 54.17 on our model with a 54 average speed figure, the only one among our top three with a published number. Asmussen's maiden runners at Saratoga tend to be well-prepared, and Ortiz gives any horse a tactical advantage in a sprint. At 9/2, this one has show-pool value in a race with a lot of unknowns.

Coach Cronin is right on Secured Landing's heels at 84.60 and goes postward at 5/2 with Flavien Prat, who is brilliant around two turns. Robert Hess Jr. trains this one, and a 33% career win rate is outstanding for a horse at this level. The 55 average speed figure is the best among our top picks in this race — if the pace draws Secured Landing into a fight, Prat can swoop late.

Sharp Spark rates third in our model at 78.07 with a 25% career win rate and Manuel Franco in the irons at 6/1 — that morning line is generous given his profile. Ilkay Kantarmaci conditions this one, and the barn also runs Sara's Shaman in the same race, so the trainer's primary weapon here is likely Sharp Spark given the jockey upgrade to Franco. A strong show hedge that also has some legitimate exacta upside.

K Gun is impossible to ignore at 7/2 with a 100% career win rate — she's undefeated, and Horacio De Paz sends her out with Ricardo Santana Jr. in the irons. A 54 average speed figure puts her in the conversation physically, and Santana is excellent in sprint situations. The question is whether an unbeaten horse has faced a field this tough — but the morning line is respectful and the connections suggest confidence.

Lady Rose rates 79.17 on our model, goes at 5/1 with Jose Lezcano for Linda Rice, and brings a 50% career win rate into this field — that's the kind of stat that quietly demands a presence in your exotics. Rice's horses are well-spotted at Saratoga, and Lezcano knows this track intimately. A 54 average speed figure keeps her within striking distance of the top two, making her a natural trifecta key.

American Man is a fascinating place play at 6/1 — a 72.8 TrackWiz rating, a 50% career win rate, and Flavien Prat for Dallas Stewart in a sprint-distance stakes. That morning line feels generous. The 56 average speed figure matches the top horses in this field on raw figures, and a half-distance win rate tells you this horse knows how to finish. If Obliteration gets into any trouble early, American Man is right there.

Solitude Dude comes in with a 66% career win rate — highest in this field by a significant margin — and draws Irad Ortiz Jr. for Saffie Joseph Jr., who has been one of the hottest trainers at Saratoga in recent meets. The 4/1 morning line reflects the public's respect, and a 55 average speed figure keeps him within range of the top two on pure figures. An excellent show anchor and exacta consideration if you believe Obliteration can be beaten.

Emerald Ember rates a strong second at 77.36 with a 20% career win rate and Ricardo Santana Jr. in the saddle for Ilkay Kantarmaci at 4/1. A 57 average speed figure is actually superior to our win pick on raw numbers, which makes this an intriguing exacta pairing in either order. Kantarmaci has two horses in this race, and Santana's booking here is meaningful — this barn is clearly pointed at a big performance.

Expecto Patronum rounds out our picks at 4/1 with a 69.10 TrackWiz rating and Manuel Franco for Linda Rice. At 14% career wins in the claiming ranks, this one isn't flashy, but the 53 average speed figure and a proven Rice-Franco combination give her a real chance to hit the board. With two Rice horses in the field, pari-mutuel value could soften on both — creating a potential show-pool overlay on Expecto Patronum worth targeting.