Presque Isle Downs Picks & Predictions — May 20, 2026
Presque Isle Downs saddles up for an 8-race Wednesday card under cloudy skies and cool 55°F temperatures. The cool air shouldn't slow things down much, but keep an eye on how the dirt plays early — sometimes a damp, overcast Erie afternoon can leave the surface a tick deeper than usual, which tends to favor closers with a little more kick at the top of the stretch.
We've got a mix of Maiden Special Weights, Claimers, Allowances, and a pair of Starter Optional Claiming routes to sort through today. There's genuine intrigue across the card, from a mile maiden opener that looks wide open to a couple of sprint sprints where pace shapes everything. Eight races, eight opinions — let's get into it.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi · Dirt
A maiden mile on the dirt that looks wide open on paper, but one horse's TrackWiz rating towers above the rest — classic vulnerable-morning-line scenario where the public price may not match the actual edge.
St. Emilion is the standout here by a wide margin — an 87.81 TrackWiz rating in a field where the next-best sits at 62.29 is a serious gap for a maiden event. Trainer Scooter Davis puts him out at 5/2 on the morning line, which feels tight, but the rating advantage is hard to argue with. Jockey Antonio Gallardo gets the call and the pair should be comfortable stalking pace over a flat mile. With everyone in this field carrying a 0% career win rate, it's really about who has the most upside, and our analysis points firmly to the #3.
Rating board at 62.3. Ridden by Huber Villa-Gomez. Ranked 3rd for recent race speed at 13.62 sec/furlong. Has placed in the last 3 races.
Rating board at 58.7. Ridden by Edwin Gonzalez. For past year, Jockey has a 21% win rate and finished in the money in 52% of races.
Race 2
Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
Two key scratches — including the morning-line favorite — reshuffle this short sprint claiming race and elevate a 7/2 shot into must-watch territory against a significantly weakened field.
Angel of Harlem (#2) jumps to the top of our sheet after Sacred Love and Strawberry Sky were scratched. Her 86.35 rating leads all remaining starters by a clear margin, and a 20% career win rate gives her a real edge in this claiming company. Trainer Kimberly DePasquale puts her out at 7/2 on the morning line — that number should shorten considerably once bettors digest the scratches. Martina Rojas rides, and with a speed figure of 54 in a sprint where the field averages 51-54, Angel of Harlem looks like the class of what's left.
Rating board at 31.7. Ridden by Samuel Jimenez. Has not raced in 226 days, may just be looking for a race to tighten up. Ranked 2nd in workouts over last month at 12.20 sec/furlong.
Race 3
Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt
This allowance sprint sets up as a two-horse battle between the morning-line favorite and a horse whose TrackWiz rating says the public may be underrating him — pace scenario could be the deciding factor.
King Mendelssohn (#5) tops our allowance ratings at 87.08 — well clear of the field — despite going off at 3/1 on the morning line. Israel Rodriguez picks up the mount for trainer Scooter Davis, a combination worth respecting. His average speed figure of 55 matches the top of the field, and a 15% career win rate in allowance company shows he belongs. Super Tiz is the 9/5 favorite but carries a 65.34 rating, a 22-point gap that's hard to overcome at this level. If the pace sets up honest at 5½ furlongs, King Mendelssohn has the firepower to close the deal.
Rating board at 67.3. Ridden by Carlos Barbosa. Ranked 1st for recent race speed at 12.02 sec/furlong. 1 wins and placed in 4 of 5 races on Dirt tracks.
Rating board at 65.3. Ridden by Edwin Gonzalez. For past year, Jockey has a 21% win rate and finished in the money in 52% of races. Has placed in the last 2 races.
TrackWiz is unlocking the first three races for everyone today. St. Emilion opens the card in Race 1 — a one-mile Maiden Special Weight on dirt — and our top TrackWiz rating of 87.81 makes her the horse to beat at a very reasonable 5/2 morning line. The added distance should help, and the pace scenario in this maiden field looks forgiving enough to let her settle and unwind late. If the surface is playing even slightly off, she profiles as exactly the type you want.
Race 2 and Race 3 round out the free preview, with Angel of Harlem (86.35 rating, 7/2 ML) taking on a 5½-furlong claiming sprint and King Mendelssohn (87.08 rating, 3/1 ML) stepping into allowance company at the same distance. King Mendelssohn's class edge in the allowance ranks is the angle we like most in this trio — allowance fields at a track like Presque Isle can be thin, and a horse with a legitimate figure advantage is worth following seriously.
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Today's best free play is St. Emilion in Race 1, and King Mendelssohn is the value angle in Race 3 allowance company. For the full 8-race breakdown — including that 6/1 pace longshot and our exotic ticket structures — the complete TrackWiz analysis is waiting for subscribers. Good luck out there, and as always, bet what you can afford to lose.