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Penn National Picks & Predictions — August 20, 2026

August 20, 20267 racesAll Penn National picks

It's a wet one at Penn National today. Rain has moved through the area and the track is playing under damp, 70°F conditions — the kind of day where the dirt surface can turn cuppy and deep, reshuffling the expected order of finish in a hurry. Seven races are on the board, and the weather wrinkle makes pace reading and surface preference more important than ever.

We've got a nice mix of race types today — Claiming, Maiden Claiming, Maiden Special Weight, Allowance, and a Starter Allowance to close things out. Two of the turf races (Races 2 and 3) will be worth monitoring closely in the morning; wet conditions can force a surface switch to the main track, which would dramatically change the complexion of those fields. Stay close to the TrackWiz app for any late scratch-and-surface updates.

Our models have identified strong plays across the card, headlined by a 6/1 shot in Race 3 that our analysis likes considerably more than the morning line suggests. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Paterno looks like a clear class standout in this five-horse claiming sprint, but the 5/2 morning line means the market already knows it — the real question is who fills out the exacta.

win3PaternoML 5/2

Paterno is the top-rated horse in this field by a wide margin, carrying an 87.81 TrackWiz rating that towers over the competition. His 33% career win rate is the best in the race and speaks to a horse who knows how to close the deal. Jockey Yabriel O. Ramos gets the call for trainer Bruce M. Kravets, and with an average speed figure of 56 matching the field's best, there's no weakness to exploit here. At 5/2, he's not a value play, but he's the most logical single in any multi-race wager.

place1Great Richie MML 3/1

Great Richie M draws the rail for Edwin Gonzalez and checks in with a solid 64.82 rating — second-best in the field. His 24% career win rate is respectable in a claiming spot, and at 3/1 on the morning line, he offers decent place value if Paterno handles the price pressure up front. Trainer Paulina Sinnefia has him positioned well enough to secure a share.

show4Ortho StarML 9/2

Ortho Star at 9/2 is worth a spot in your exacta and trifecta coverage. His 63.56 rating edges out Bourbon Music for third in this field's pecking order, and trainer Timothy C. Kreiser keeps him competitive at this level. He's not flashy, but in a short five-horse field, the show pool can surprise — use him underneath.

Race 2

10:14 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden claimer on the turf with a ten-horse field of winless runners — Tiz Her Law stands out on the numbers, but several other contenders are separated by very little.

win6Tiz Her LawML 5/2

Tiz Her Law tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.63 — a significant gap over the second-ranked Air Force Sue at 67.16 — and the morning line of 5/2 reflects her standing as the public's choice. Jockey Yabriel O. Ramos was just on the Paterno winner in Race 1 and brings real momentum to the connection with trainer Elisha Perez. Her average speed of 54 ties several rivals, but it's the overall profile that sets her apart in what is otherwise a bunched field. In maiden claiming turf sprints, a horse with this kind of ratings cushion is worth trusting.

place5Air Force SueML 5/1

Air Force Sue comes in at 67.16 — the second-highest rating in the field — and Ricardo Chiappe is a capable pilot who can put her in good position early. Trainer Flint W. Stites sends her out with an average speed figure of 54 matching the pace of the division. At 5/1 on the board, she's a legitimate place contender if Tiz Her Law gets the trip she needs.

show1Natures FuryML 7/2

Natures Fury opens at 7/2 under Abner Adorno for trainer John C. Servis, and Servis is a name worth noting in any maiden field — he knows how to have a horse ready. Her 66.01 rating slots just below Air Force Sue and well above the rest of the pack, making her a natural show play. The 7/2 price in the win pool also suggests the morning line compiler respects her chances more than many others here.

Race 3

10:43 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A full eleven-horse maiden special weight field going a route on the turf — Check Ride leads on ratings but the morning line favorite is Time for You, setting up a potential overlay situation worth digging into.

win2Check RideML 6/1

Check Ride has the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 82.71, yet opens at 6/1 on the morning line — that's the kind of disconnect that gets handicappers excited. Trainer Kevin J. Fields puts Wilfredo Corujo aboard, a productive partnership at this level. While her average speed of 52 is on the modest side, in a maiden turf route where tactical positioning matters, the ratings edge could easily translate to a front-running or well-placed effort. The value case here is real.

place7Time for YouML 5/2

Time for You is the 5/2 morning line favorite for trainer John C. Servis, who also saddles Natures Fury in Race 2 — a trainer double-up that suggests Servis is sending his horses in ready. Jockey Vincent Cheminaud is an interesting name in this spot, and the 77.76 rating is second-best in the field. If Check Ride gets loose on the lead, Time for You figures to be the most likely presser to run her down.

show3Meadowlark DriveML 4/1

Meadowlark Drive at 4/1 rounds out the top three on the TrackWiz leaderboard with a 73.68 rating, and trainer Kathleen A. Demasi also has Too Many Mikes (program #11) in this same race — dual entries from the same barn can sometimes signal one horse is the primary and one is insurance. Abner Adorno rides, and an average speed of 54 gives her a tick of an edge over several rivals. She's a solid third wheel in any trifecta.

The first three races on today's card are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader. Race 1 brings Paterno to the table in a 6-furlong Claiming sprint on the wet dirt — our top-rated pick at 87.81, right in line with the 5/2 morning line. On a rain-affected track, horses that can establish early position without wasting energy tend to hold up late, and that pace scenario is worth keeping in mind here. Race 2 shifts to the turf for a 5-furlong Maiden Claiming, where Tiz Her Law (5/2, 85.63 rating) is our pick — though again, watch for any surface switch given the rain.

The most intriguing of the free plays is Race 3, a Maiden Special Weight at 1 1/16 miles on the turf. Check Ride opens at 6/1 on the morning line, but our rating of 82.71 reflects a horse we think is positioned for a big effort at a price. Distance stretches in maiden routes can catch the market off guard, and Check Ride is exactly the kind of value play that makes a wet Thursday worth showing up for.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Ridley Park shapes up as a dominant allowance favorite, but Face the Facts brings a career win percentage that demands respect and could make the exacta competitive.

win2Ridley ParkML 2/1

Ridley Park paces the field with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest of any horse on tonight's entire card through Race 4 — and Emilio Flores takes the mount for trainer Carlos M. Johnson. His 2/1 morning line makes him the prohibitive choice, but a 16% career win rate in allowance company is exactly the kind of reliable form you want backing a short-priced favorite. In a six-horse field, he's the horse you build your tickets around.

place4Face the FactsML 3/1

Face the Facts is a fascinating place play at 3/1 — his 25% career win rate is actually the best in the field, which tells you this horse has won before and wins again at a decent clip. Trainer Jamie Ness is sharp at this level, and Martin Chuan keeps it tight in the saddle. The 63.26 rating won't beat Ridley Park straight up, but second money with a 25% winner is absolutely in play.

show5RudiobusML 6/1

Rudiobus opens at 6/1 for trainer Elisha Perez, who also runs horses in Races 2 and 5 tonight — an active barn to keep an eye on. His 62.86 rating barely trails Face the Facts, and an average speed of 55 ties Ninja Prize for the field's top mark. The show position at 6/1 is where you want him — he's not beating Ridley Park, but he can run third in a moderate pace scenario.

Race 5

11:41 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Itty Biddy City holds the ratings edge in this eight-horse allowance sprint, but Remembrall and Quercus are close enough to keep things interesting — and the pace could be honest with multiple speed horses in the mix.

win6Itty Biddy CityML 4/1

Itty Biddy City tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and gets the services of Yabriel O. Ramos, who is having an active night on the card. Trainer Robert A. Wolfe, Jr. sends her out with an average speed of 55 — tied for the field's best alongside Jump a Fox, Sparkling Ruby, and Kylie's Kiss. The 4/1 morning line is fair value for the top-rated horse in an allowance field, and a 11% career win rate that likely understates her current form makes her the right single here.

place5RemembrallML 5/1

Remembrall at 5/1 is an intriguing place play — her 71.31 rating is second in the field and her 20% career win rate shows she's been close enough before to sneak into the winner's circle. Trainer Elisha Perez runs two horses in this race (Remembrall and Tudox Dahlia), and when a trainer splits entries, sometimes the second name gets overlooked by the crowd. Angel R. Quinones rides, and if Itty Biddy City faces any adversity, Remembrall is positioned to collect.

show1QuercusML 5/2

Quercus opens as the 5/2 second choice on the morning line despite ranking third on ratings at 70.80, which tells you the market respects her more than the numbers might suggest. Martin Chuan rides for trainer Timothy C. Kreiser — a pairing that showed up in Race 6 as well with Amazing Bernie. A 21% career win rate is among the field's strongest, and she's on the short list for show if the top two run their race as expected.

Race 6

12:10 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

Hay Chief is the class of this mile-and-a-sixteenth claiming affair, but Arrow Speed at 7/2 could make this more competitive than the morning line suggests if the pace sets up right.

win7Hay ChiefML 5/2

Hay Chief checks in with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating — matching Paterno's top mark from Race 1 — and gets Yabriel O. Ramos back in the irons for trainer Brandon L. Kulp. At 5/2, the market has him right where he belongs at the top of a seven-horse claiming field going a route. His average speed of 53 is tied for the field's best, and while his 16% career win rate leaves some room for doubt, the overall profile screams race-favorite at a manageable price.

place5Arrow SpeedML 7/2

Arrow Speed is the value angle here at 7/2 for trainer Brandon L. Kulp — who also runs Hay Chief in this very race. Dual entries from the same barn at a route distance are always worth exploring, and Arrow Speed's 71.54 rating is clearly second-best in the field. Angel R. Rodriguez gets the mount and an average speed of 52 matches the field's pace. If Kulp is sending two horses, he might be letting them run their own race — and Arrow Speed looks live for a piece.

show3Golden PlateML 5/1

Golden Plate at 5/1 is the show play for trainer Paulina Sinnefia, who also trained Great Richie M in Race 1. A 59.47 rating places her solidly in the middle of this field, and Edwin Gonzalez rides — the same jockey who handled Race 1 duties for the barn. Her 17% career win rate is respectable in a claiming spot, and at a mile and a sixteenth where pace can collapse late runners, she's a useful trifecta piece.

Race 7

12:39 AM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A fascinating starter allowance sprint where the top three horses on the TrackWiz ratings — Blo by the Field, Peridot Pendant, and Joyous Song — are all separated by less than three points, setting up a genuine three-way battle.

win3Blo by the FieldML 6/1

Blo by the Field gets the top spot despite opening at 6/1, and that's where the value lives tonight. Her 82.71 rating leads the field and her 30% career win rate is a strong number in any company — this is a horse who consistently finishes the job. Jomar Torres rides for trainer Mark V. Salvaggio, and an average speed of 55 ties the field's best. The morning line suggests the crowd will gravitate toward Peridot Pendant, but Blo by the Field is the TrackWiz top pick and potentially the right one at a better price.

place1Peridot PendantML 2/1

Peridot Pendant is the 2/1 morning line favorite for trainer Erin C. McClellan, and her 52% career win rate is the most eye-popping stat on the entire race card tonight — more than half her starts have ended in the winner's circle. Emilio Flores rides the one-post, which puts her on the rail in a six-furlong sprint. An 80.51 rating places her just a tick behind Blo by the Field, and at the price, the place bet offers solid security if she can't quite get up to win.

show5Joyous SongML 4/1

Joyous Song sits right on the boundary at 80.40 — barely a point behind Peridot Pendant — and Yabriel O. Ramos takes the mount for trainer Todd M. Beattie at 4/1. Her 15% career win rate is the lowest of the top three on paper, but in a race this tight on ratings, the show position is a safe landing spot. With three horses so evenly matched, this trifecta box is practically writing itself — just keep Shudabeenacowgirl and Normandy Life underneath.

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Today at Penn National is shaping up to be a grinder's card — wet dirt, two turf races on watch, and enough value spots to make the trip worthwhile. Our top free plays are Paterno (R1), Tiz Her Law (R2), and the day's best longshot angle, Check Ride at 6/1 in Race 3. For the full card including Ridley Park, Itty Biddy City, Hay Chief, and Blo by the Field — plus exotic ticket strategies — subscribers have everything they need inside the TrackWiz premium breakdown. Good luck, and keep an umbrella handy.

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