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Penn National Picks & Predictions — August 26, 2026

August 26, 20267 racesAll Penn National picks

Penn National is open for business on a gorgeous Wednesday afternoon — partly cloudy skies, a comfortable 78°F, and conditions that should keep that dirt strip quick all day. Seven races on the card, a mix of maiden special weights, allowances, and claiming battles spread across both dirt and turf, and TrackWiz analysis has combed through every angle to set you up.

The card has a little something for everyone: a pair of short turf sprints early, some familiar claiming warfare in the middle races, and allowance money on the line as the afternoon winds down. Surface variety is always fun at a track like Penn, and with the weather cooperating, we shouldn't see any late-scratching chaos from a sloppy or yielding strip.

Three races are fully unlocked for every reader. The back half of the card — Races 4 through 7 — is where the card really heats up, and that's where subscribers get the full TrackWiz treatment.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden sprint where TrackWiz's model finds a massive rating gap at the top — One Time separates itself from a field of first-time starters with limited measurable form.

win1One TimeML 5/1

One Time draws the rail in a field where most rivals have zero recorded speed figures, and TrackWiz's model has this one rated a full 26 points clear of the next-best horse at 84.17 — that's an enormous separation in a maiden field. Trainer Flint W. Stites puts Yabriel O. Ramos up, a jockey who knows this oval well. The 5/1 morning line looks generous given how dominant the rating advantage is here. If One Time breaks cleanly from post 1 in a five-furlong dash, the front end should be comfortable to hold.

place4LaflordelacanelaML 2/1

Laflordelacanela opens as the 2/1 morning-line favorite, which means the public likes this one even if our model has it fourth in the ratings. Trainer Timothy C. Kreiser saddles Leonardo Corujo, a combination worth tracking at Penn National. In a maiden field full of unknowns, the favorite's market support alone makes the place slot a reasonable safety net.

show5VandalismML 3/1

Vandalism at 3/1 slots in just below Laflordelacanela in the ratings at 56.67 and gives trainer Brandon L. Kulp another runner to watch on the card. In a maiden sprint where pedigree and morning workouts shape most of the early wagering, having a horse with solid market positioning at 3/1 makes it a useful show-ticket anchor for exotics.

Race 2

10:14 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Turf mile and a sixteenth allowance with a sneaky pace setup — the top-rated horse is flying under the radar at 5/1 while a well-backed closer could make this an interesting stretch duel.

win7Whiskey LullabyML 5/1

Whiskey Lullaby carries the field's top TrackWiz rating at 84.17 and also posts the best average speed figure among all nine runners at 57 — a combination that's hard to ignore. At 5/1 on the morning line, this is the clearest overlay in the race relative to the model. Trainer Lydee Shea puts Emilio Flores in the irons, and the turf mile and sixteenth sets up nicely for a horse showing this kind of sustained pace figure. An 18% career win rate isn't eye-catching, but the raw speed numbers suggest recent form that should translate to grass.

place6Racey RubyML 5/2

Racey Ruby is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 and backs it up with a 35% career win rate — the best closing number in the field by a significant margin. Trainer Michael L. Catalano, Jr. has this one positioned right, and a 78.38 rating with an average speed figure of 54 suggests a horse that consistently delivers. If Whiskey Lullaby gets the lead, Racey Ruby profiles as the most likely horse to run her down.

show2Kindred HeartsML 7/2

Kindred Hearts brings a 33% career win rate and a 70.93 TrackWiz rating into this spot, making it the third-best horse on paper in a competitive allowance field. Trainer Philip T. Aristone keeps Cipriano Gil aboard, and the 7/2 morning line reflects legitimate public respect. At a mile and a sixteenth on turf, a horse with that kind of closing percentage is always worth keeping alive in trifecta tickets.

Race 3

10:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A five-furlong turf claiming sprint with a clear top horse on paper, but the 5/2 morning line suggests the public already found it — the real intrigue is whether the pace scenario lets the favorite wire the field or sets up a closer.

win4Highs N GoesML 5/2

Highs N Goes is the standout in this field with a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — more than 12 points clear of the next horse — and backs it up with the field's top average speed figure of 57. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp gives the call to Angel R. Rodriguez, a combination that appears multiple times on today's card. A 16% career win rate in a claiming field on a five-furlong turf sprint is workable, and at 5/2, this one is fairly priced but still beatable if the pace scenario breaks wrong.

place7Buzz AdamsML 5/1

Buzz Adams opens at 5/1 with a 75.67 rating and a 10% career win rate, but the value angle here is the morning line itself — fifth choice in a field where our model has this horse second-best represents a mild overlay opportunity. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets puts David Cora up, and a 55 average speed figure on a five-furlong turf course is a solid foundation. If Highs N Goes draws heat early, Buzz Adams could be the one picking up the pieces.

show6Expresso BayML 9/2

Expresso Bay is another Kulp barn runner, meaning trainer Brandon L. Kulp has two horses in this race — always a worth-noting stable situation. A 68.9 rating, 16% career win rate, and 9/2 morning line puts this one right in the mix for exotic plays. In a sprint where the pace can get hot with multiple early runners, a horse with a solid speed base at 55 figures has the kind of profile that sneaks into exacta and trifecta payoffs.

The first three races give us plenty to work with. We kick things off with a maiden special weight sprint on the dirt, where One Time opens at 5/1 on the morning line — a price that looks exploitable given the rating our model has assigned. Race 2 flips us to the turf for a 1 1/16-mile allowance, and Whiskey Lullaby is another 5/1 shot we like in a distance that rewards stamina over raw speed. Then Race 3 keeps us on the grass with a short 5-furlong claiming sprint — Highs N Goes posts the highest TrackWiz rating of the free trio at 87.81 and faces a field where early pace control could be decisive.

One thread tying these free picks together: none of our top choices are heavy favorites. All three open at 5/2 or longer, which means there's genuine value baked in if the morning lines hold. On a mid-week card at a regional oval, the public doesn't always get it right — and that's exactly the kind of spot TrackWiz was built for.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Six furlongs on dirt and the claiming ranks deliver a dominant top-rated horse at a short price — the question is whether anything in this thin five-horse field can push Celtic Tiger before the top of the stretch.

win2Celtic TigerML 9/5

Celtic Tiger opens as the 9/5 favorite and earns it with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in the race and the clearest model signal on the afternoon's card. Trainer Ricardo A. Murillo turns to Inoel Beato, and a 16% career win rate at the claiming level suggests consistent form rather than fluky results. The 53 average speed figure is respectable, and in a five-horse field, Celtic Tiger doesn't need a perfect trip — just a clean break and room in the stretch.

place5Rolls Royce JoyceML 5/2

Rolls Royce Joyce at 5/2 is the second choice on the morning line and backs it up with a 63.14 rating, though there's a notable gap between this one and Celtic Tiger on paper. The 12% career win rate under trainer Timothy C. Kreiser with Edwin Gonzalez up gives this one a professional edge. This is the most logical exacta partner with the favorite, and at 5/2, the place payoff should be modest but reliable.

show4La LimaML 5/1

La Lima ships in at 5/1 with a 49.33 rating and an 8% career win rate — not numbers that scream upside, but in a five-horse field, every horse is in the exotics. Trainer Mark Ippolito puts Vladimir Diaz up, and the 54 average speed figure is middle of the pack here. The value case is simple: thin fields mean fewer combos to key against, and La Lima at 5/1 could sneak into show money if either of the top two horses encounter trouble.

Race 5

11:41 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Six-furlong dirt allowance with a legitimate pace battle brewing — two high-rated horses separated by less than seven points at the top, and a live longshot lurking with the field's best career win rate.

win2Backside BuzzML 2/1

Backside Buzz leads our model at 88.54 with the field's second-best average speed figure of 55, and the 2/1 morning line reflects legitimate public confidence. Trainer Timothy C. Kreiser teams with Edwin Gonzalez, a pairing that's appeared multiple times on today's card with results worth tracking. The 13% career win rate is understated given the overall profile — this horse's raw figures suggest it's been competitive in tougher spots. At 6 furlongs on dirt, early position from post 2 should be an advantage.

place6Clarely TomML 7/2

Clarely Tom is the most intriguing angle in this race — a 37% career win rate is the highest mark in the entire field by a wide margin, and the 82.0 TrackWiz rating keeps it firmly in contention. Trainer Flint W. Stites puts Wilfredo Corujo up, and at 7/2 on the morning line, this horse offers genuine value relative to its win percentage. If this one is within striking distance turning for home, that closing ability could make the place payoff very real.

show1ChanceML 5/2

Chance at 5/2 sits third in the ratings at 79.1 with trainer Michael L. Catalano, Jr. handing the call to Angel Cruz. The 13% career win rate matches the top two horses in that category, and post 1 in a six-furlong dirt race can be a tricky draw if there's early speed pressure. Still, the model rates this one well enough to keep in trifecta coverage, and the 53 average speed figure won't embarrass in this company.

Race 6

12:10 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Maiden claiming sprint on dirt and the TrackWiz model finds a significant gap between the top horse and a morning-line favorite that may be overbet — this is a classic overlay situation worth exploring.

win3ChubblesomeML 5/2

Chubblesome tops the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and a 53 average speed figure — posting the highest model grade despite being just the third choice on the morning line at 5/2. Trainer Flint W. Stites keeps Wilfredo Corujo in the irons, a combo that appears on multiple races today suggesting the barn is live on this card. In a maiden claiming field where no horse has a career win, the rating separation matters more than ever — and this one has a 27-point edge on the morning-line favorite Supremely Wicked.

place1WhataguyoughtadoML 5/1

Whataguyoughtado opens at 5/1 with a 65.71 rating — second-best in the field — and represents the kind of value play that keeps exotics interesting. Trainer Todd M. Beattie puts Yabriel O. Ramos up, and that 52 average speed figure in a 5.5-furlong maiden sprint is workable. At 5/1, this horse is underestimated by the morning-line oddsmaker relative to what our model sees, making it a nice exacta key underneath Chubblesome.

show4Supremely WickedML 8/5

Supremely Wicked is the 8/5 morning-line choice, meaning the public is squarely behind this one — but our model has it third in the field at 60.28, well behind Chubblesome. Trainer Phillip J. Farley sends Angel Cruz out from post 4, which is a favorable position in a five-horse field. At the likely short price, Supremely Wicked is more useful as a show-ticket safety net and trifecta singler than a straight-win play against the value the model identifies.

Race 7

12:39 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Six-furlong dirt claiming race with a fascinating top-two dynamic — the morning-line favorite is not the top-rated horse, setting up a potential value opportunity on a horse that might go off at a juicy number.

win2Music ClarifcationML 3/1

Music Clarifcation leads the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and a 55 average speed figure — and crucially, it opens at 3/1 while the 2/1 morning-line chalk goes to Endless Glow. That pricing inefficiency is exactly what TrackWiz analysis looks to identify. Trainer Kathleen A. Demasi teams with Ricardo Chiappe, and while the 7% career win rate sounds modest, the raw speed figures suggest a horse that's been competing at a higher level. At 3/1 in a six-horse field, this is a clear best-bet candidate.

place1Endless GlowML 2/1

Endless Glow opens as the 2/1 favorite for trainer Brandon L. Kulp with Angel R. Rodriguez aboard — a combination that's been busy all card long. The 82.0 rating is legitimate second-best in the field, but the 6% career win rate raises a flag for straight win wagers. As a place pick, Endless Glow benefits from public support keeping the pools healthy, and in a six-horse field, a horse rated this highly rarely misses the top two entirely.

show4Reckless AbandonML 4/1

Reckless Abandon is the sleeper angle in this race — a 33% career win rate is by far the highest in the field, and Yabriel O. Ramos gets the call for trainer Elisha Perez. The 60.26 rating and 52 average speed figure don't scream top-horse, but a horse that wins a third of its races has a demonstrated ability to close the deal. At 4/1 morning line, this one belongs in your trifecta tickets as a show finisher with live upset potential.

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Bottom line: a clean, manageable seven-race Wednesday card at Penn with real value scattered throughout. One Time, Whiskey Lullaby, and Highs N Goes are your free best bets — all priced at better than 5/2 on the morning line. For the full card breakdown, pace scenarios, and exotic ticket strategies through the finale, subscribers have everything waiting at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there — and as always, bet smart.

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