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Penn National Picks & Predictions — August 19, 2026

August 19, 20267 racesAll Penn National picks

Penn National kicks off its Wednesday card under partly cloudy skies with temperatures sitting around a comfortable 81°F — solid conditions for both the dirt and turf surfaces. Seven races are on the slate today, mixing claiming, starter optional claiming, and maiden claiming action across sprints and routes.

What makes today's card worth a close look is the turf presence early. Races 2 and 3 both go a mile and 70 yards on the grass, giving route bettors a pair of chances to find value before the card shifts back to the main track. The pace scenarios in those turf routes could get interesting, and positioning early is going to matter.

On the dirt side, we've got a nice mix of sprint distances — 5½ furlongs and 6 furlongs — spread across the back half of the card, plus a dirt route in Race 7 that should draw plenty of attention from the maiden claiming crowd looking to break through.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:45 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses dominate the TrackWiz ratings by a wide margin in this 6-furlong dirt Starter Optional Claiming opener, making the top of the ticket fairly clear — the intrigue is whether the mid-field can crash the party.

win4Bernie Says SoML 5/2

Bernie Says So (#4) is the standout of the race and it's not particularly close on ratings — an 87.42 TrackWiz figure towers over the field, and that 66% career win rate under trainer T. Bernard Houghton is elite for this level. Jockey Wilfredo Corujo gets a live mount here, and at 5/2 on the morning line, this is a horse whose odds are justified by the numbers. In a 6-furlong dirt sprint, Bernie Says So's combination of rating and win percentage makes this a confident top selection.

place6Chilling HassleML 7/2

Chilling Hassle (#6) posts an 86.35 rating — essentially a coin flip with the top pick on paper — and that 25% career win rate is respectable for this spot. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp also saddles Leonidas Stand in this race, so the barn clearly fires two shots in Race 1, and Chilling Hassle looks like the sharper of the two. At 7/2, there's a touch of value if Bernie Says So gets all the action.

show5Leonidas StandML 6/1

Leonidas Stand (#5) is the second Kulp entry in the race, posting a 69.4 rating and a solid 22% career win percentage that plays well in exotic tickets. Angel R. Quinones gets the call and at 6/1 on the morning line, the third spot in your exotics could pay a nice price if the two chalk horses split the exacta. A decent hedge for trifecta players looking for a live outsider from a hot barn.

Race 2

10:14 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Turf

A three-horse battle sits atop the ratings sheet in this turf route, with Nilambar, Brockton, and Royal Renegade all bunched within a few points — expect a competitive finish around the far turn and down the stretch.

win7NilambarML 5/1

Nilambar (#7) leads our ratings at 84.17 and goes postward at a tempting 5/1 morning line, which represents genuine value if the number holds. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets puts David Cora in the irons, and a 10% career win rate on a turf route at this distance suggests the horse has found its best conditions. The combination of top rating and fair price makes Nilambar our top selection in what is otherwise a tightly bunched upper tier.

place4BrocktonML 5/2

Brockton (#4) edges Nilambar by a whisker on the TrackWiz rating (79.66 vs. 84.17) and carries the second-best career win rate in the top tier at 14%. The Brandon Kulp/Angel R. Rodriguez combo has shown up multiple times on tonight's card, suggesting a hot barn in form — and at 5/2, Brockton is a logical place wager if Nilambar takes the win spot. The extra 70 yards past a mile on turf plays to Brockton's route profile.

show2Royal RenegadeML 3/1

Royal Renegade (#2) rounds out the top three with a 79.61 rating and a 3/1 morning line that makes it one of the shorter-priced runners in the field. Trainer Elizabeth M. Merryman puts Jomar Torres on board, and while the 7% career win rate is modest, the rating says this horse belongs near the top. In a three-way photo finish scenario, Royal Renegade hitting the board at 3/1 is a realistic outcome worth covering.

Race 3

10:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Turf

A full, sprawling turf field of 12 gives this mile-and-70 Claiming race a chaotic pace setup — wide fields on turf can produce surprise closers, and there's legitimate value buried in the middle of the program.

win3Starship BelmontML 5/2

Starship Belmont (#3) leads the field with an 84.71 TrackWiz rating and goes as the 5/2 favorite — a price that actually looks fair given the separation from the rest of the field. Angel R. Rodriguez, who has a strong book of rides on tonight's card for trainer Brandon L. Kulp, takes the mount, and that barn has been firing at a high level. A 15% career win rate is steady for a claimer, and the rating edge in a big field makes Starship Belmont the right horse to anchor your tickets.

place9Wink of an EyeML 8/1

Wink of an Eye (#9) is a fascinating place play at 8/1 on the morning line — that 79.79 rating is second-best in the field, but the odds suggest the public hasn't caught up yet. A 30% career win rate is genuinely impressive for this level, and trainer Elisha Perez sends out a horse that looks undervalued by the morning line. If Starship Belmont gets caught in traffic in this big turf field, Wink of an Eye has the profile to swoop late.

show5African AngelML 8/1

African Angel (#5) checks in with a 71.26 rating and a 13% career win rate, sitting at 8/1 on the morning line in what shapes up as a wide-open turf routing race. Trainer Ronald W. Rogers puts Maicol J. Inirio up, and while the average speed figure of 52 is modest, turf routes in big fields often reward pace versatility over raw speed. At double-digit odds potential, African Angel is a live trifecta piece.

Our three free races give you a solid cross-section of today's action. Race 1 opens the card on the dirt sprint, and Bernie Says So (morning line 5/2, TrackWiz rating 87.42) paces our analysis as the top-rated horse on the entire card among free selections. In Race 2, we shift to the turf and Nilambar (5/1 ML) offers what our model sees as genuine value at that price — don't sleep on a double here if the prices hold. Race 3 stays on the grass route with Starship Belmont (5/2 ML, rating 84.71) looking like the class of the field at a fair price.

One angle worth noting across all three free races: the turf strip at Penn National tends to reward horses who can settle in mid-pack and make a sustained run in the stretch — front-runners can get caught. Keep that pace bias in mind as you structure your wagers in Races 2 and 3.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This 5½-furlong dirt Claiming sprint has a dominant figure at the top — Amusing Mischief looks like a class standout and should be favored well below the morning line once the money comes in.

win6Amusing MischiefML 2/1

Amusing Mischief (#6) posts the highest TrackWiz rating on tonight's entire card at 88.54, and at 2/1 on the morning line, the market has already identified this horse as the one to beat. A 25% career win rate for trainer Brandon L. Kulp's charge is backed by an average speed figure of 55, matching the top of this field. Angel R. Rodriguez, who's been Kulp's go-to rider all evening, picks up the mount again — this barn-jockey combo is locked in tonight, and Amusing Mischief is their best weapon.

place4KaladinML 5/2

Kaladin (#4) is the second choice on the morning line at 5/2 and posts a 58.0 rating with a 19% career win rate under trainer Christopher M. Keller. Ricardo Chiappe rides, and while the gap to Amusing Mischief is significant on paper, Kaladin is clearly the most likely horse to secure the place spot if the favorite runs as expected. A 54 average speed figure in a 5½-furlong sprint gives this horse the early kick to sit in a stalking position.

show3BigdaddysboyML 5/1

Bigdaddysboy (#3) shows the highest average speed figure in the field at 56, which is worth noting even if the 54.35 rating doesn't scream winner. Trainer Erin Carpio gets Wilfredo Corujo up, and a 13% career win rate is workable at this claiming level. At 5/1, Bigdaddysboy makes sense as the third piece of trifecta tickets — the raw speed figure suggests the horse could pop up on the lead and be tough to pass in a sprint.

Race 5

11:41 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A competitive 6-furlong dirt Claiming field with real pace heat from the outside — the top two horses on TrackWiz ratings come from different corners of the pace setup, which should set up a genuine stretch battle.

win6Chain ReactionML 5/1

Chain Reaction (#6) tops the field with an 84.17 rating and goes at 5/1 on the morning line — that's a price worth jumping on for a horse with a clear ratings edge. Trainer Cody Beattie sends out Wilfredo Corujo, and a 14% career win rate is solid for a horse priced as an overlay against the morning line. With an average speed figure of 55, Chain Reaction has the foot to compete in this sprint, and the TrackWiz number says this is the one to beat.

place8Fire Down BelowML 4/1

Fire Down Below (#8) posts a strong 77.27 rating and brings a 33% career win rate that stands out in this field — trainer Amy Albright has Yabriel O. Ramos in the irons for a horse that clearly knows how to win. At 4/1, this is the most dangerous threat to Chain Reaction and the most logical place wager in the race. The 55 average speed figure matches the top horses, and a high career win percentage often signals a horse that finds ways to get its nose in front.

show2Infamous NonoML 5/1

Infamous Nono (#2) shows a 32% career win rate — second-best in the field — with a 69.38 rating and 5/1 odds that make it a live exotics piece. Trainer Mark V. Salvaggio puts Inoel Beato up, and with a 55 average speed figure, Infamous Nono has the class to sit forwardly in a pace-heavy sprint. If Chain Reaction and Fire Down Below set each other up, Infamous Nono is the most likely beneficiary with that win-percentage history.

Race 6

12:10 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Serious Nonsense brings an eye-catching career win percentage to this 5½-furlong dirt sprint, but Diamond Essence lurks as a potential value bomb that the morning line may be underestimating.

win2Serious NonsenseML 2/1

Serious Nonsense (#2) is a deserving favorite with an 84.31 TrackWiz rating and a jaw-dropping 50% career win rate — that's a horse that closes the deal consistently, and trainer Erin C. McClellan has it cranked up for this 2/1 shot. Inoel Beato gets the call on a horse that has demonstrated winning is a habit, not a fluke. The average speed figure of 53 is modest but the rating and win percentage together paint a picture of a horse that outperforms its raw numbers.

place7Diamond EssenceML 8/1

Diamond Essence (#7) is the value angle in this race — a 79.79 rating that ranks second in the field, yet the morning line has it at 8/1, which suggests the betting public may sleep on this one. Ricardo Chiappe picks up a live mount for trainer George R. Albright, and a 9% career win rate understates what the TrackWiz figure is telling us here. If Serious Nonsense is overbet and runs into trouble, Diamond Essence is perfectly positioned to swipe the exacta.

show6Sacred LoveML 9/2

Sacred Love (#6) rates third in the field at 75.37 with a 22% career win rate — easily the most accomplished winner percentage among the secondary horses. Trainer Todd M. Beattie sends Vladimir Diaz out at 9/2, a fair price for a horse with a proven track record of hitting the board. In a three-horse trifecta with Serious Nonsense and Diamond Essence above, Sacred Love is a natural fit for the third spot.

Race 7

12:39 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Maiden Claiming routes on dirt are always a guessing game — this bunch has all zeros in the win column, so the TrackWiz ratings and trainer patterns do the heavy lifting in separating contenders.

win3Bourbon TimeML 3/1

Bourbon Time (#3) tops the field with a commanding 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the highest of any maiden on tonight's card — and while the 0% career win rate is expected in a maiden field, this horse's profile screams first-out winner. Trainer George R. Albright puts Yabriel O. Ramos in the irons, and Albright also has the morning line favorite Batant in the race, suggesting genuine stable confidence in both. At 3/1, Bourbon Time's rating-to-odds ratio is the best value in the race and makes it the clear top selection.

place1BatantML 2/1

Batant (#1) is the morning line favorite at 2/1, trained by the same George R. Albright barn that runs Bourbon Time — two-pronged trainer entries in maiden races often mean the barn has genuine confidence in both horses. The 57.38 rating trails Bourbon Time significantly, but Leonardo Corujo aboard the lukewarm favorite keeps this one squarely in the mix for the place spot. Maiden Claiming routes frequently produce two-horse finishes from the same barn when the connections are firing.

show5Lucky WarriorML 5/1

Lucky Warrior (#5) rates third among the non-Albright horses with a 53.33 figure and gets the trainer/jockey combo of Brandon L. Kulp and Wilfredo Corujo — a pairing that has shown up multiple times on tonight's card with live horses. At 5/1, the price is fair for a maiden that has enough rating to suggest it's not hopelessly outclassed. In a field where nobody has ever won, Lucky Warrior's backing from a hot barn makes it a logical trifecta inclusion.

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Seven races, two surfaces, and a handful of genuine value spots make today's Penn National card worth your time. Bernie Says So, Nilambar, and Starship Belmont are your free best bets to get started — and Amusing Mischief headlining the premium side is not one you want to miss. Full pace analysis, exotic tickets, and the complete four-race premium breakdown are waiting for subscribers at /pricing. Good luck at the windows.

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