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Penn National Picks & Predictions — August 18, 2026
It's a clear Tuesday afternoon at Penn National with temperatures sitting at a comfortable 81°F — ideal racing conditions across all surfaces. Seven races are on the board today, split between dirt and turf, with a nice mix of maiden special weights, allowance company, and claiming action to keep things interesting from first post to last.
The turf course gets a good workout today, featuring back-to-back grass sprints and routes in Races 2 and 3. That makes surface reads and pace scenarios especially important this afternoon. TrackWiz analysis has been digging into the splits, and there are a few spots where the morning line looks a little generous — always music to the ears of value hunters.
Three races are available free today, giving everyone a solid starting point. If you want the full-card edge — pace projections, exotic tickets, and our premium picks for Races 4 through 7 — that's what subscribers are here for.
Best Bets
Race 1
Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt
A maiden special weight opener where one horse stands out on ratings by a wide margin — Majestic Rain's 88.83 TrackWiz rating is 30-plus points clear of the next challenger in a wide-open rookie field.
Majestic Rain opens as the 9/5 morning-line favorite and it's not hard to see why — that 88.83 TrackWiz rating towers over everyone else in this maiden field. Trained by Michael Zalalas and ridden by Inoel Beato, this one comes in with an average speed figure of 52, which is in line with the competition, but the overall rating gap suggests more underlying upside. In a short six-furlong sprint where pace will matter, expect Beato to get a forward position and let the rating advantage do the rest.
Benevolent (No. 2) is the morning-line second choice at 5/2 and carries the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 57.5. Jean Gregor Briceno gets the call for trainer Samuel G. Davis, and while there's no average speed on record, the overall profile grades out above most rivals. In a maiden race where chaos is the norm, Benevolent's rating edge over the lower half of the field makes a place finish a reasonable expectation.
Keltic Fury (No. 1) sits third in the ratings at 55.83 and goes with Angel Cruz aboard for trainer Kelly Lynn Deiter. The 7/2 morning line reflects a bit of public respect, and an average speed of 52 keeps pace with the bulk of the field. As an exotic hedge in a thin maiden field, Keltic Fury's spot in the top three on the ratings sheet makes the show spot an affordable inclusion.
Race 2
Allowance · 5 fur · Turf
A packed 12-horse allowance turf sprint that splits cleanly into two tiers — Pageant Princess and Whiskey Lullaby sit well above the rest on TrackWiz ratings — but the deep field makes pace unpredictable and exotics very much in play.
Pageant Princess (No. 4) owns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81 and backs it up with a 25% career win rate — the best among the contenders. Angel R. Rodriguez gets the mount for trainer Brandon L. Kulp, a combination worth noting in a turf sprint where tactical positioning off the gate is crucial. At 5 furlongs on the grass, her average speed figure of 56 ties for the top mark in the field, and our analysis sees her as the clear class of this group.
Whiskey Lullaby (No. 1) is no throwaway at 7/2 — an 80.93 rating and a 20% career win rate make her a legitimate top-three contender. Trainer Lydee Shea sends her out with Emilio Flores up, and at 56 average speed on a turf surface she's clearly comfortable on, this filly can track the pace and pick up pieces late. She's our place pick because she's live enough to win but faces a tough ask against Pageant Princess's superior overall profile.
Honorable Chill (No. 3) at 6/1 is a solid show-tier play with a 71.16 TrackWiz rating and an average speed of 56 that matches the top horses in the field. Trained by Bernard G. Dunham with Andrew Wolfsont in the irons, this one has a 12% career win rate that understates a horse who has shown consistent competitiveness. In a 12-horse field with pace likely to get complicated, a closer type like this can pick up a piece at a workable price.
Race 3
Claiming · 1 mi · Turf
A full 12-horse turf claiming mile with a genuinely tight battle at the top — Roxton and I'm Due are separated by less than a point on TrackWiz ratings, setting up a duel that could benefit a sneaky closer underneath.
Roxton (No. 4) edges out the field with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating and goes at a generous 6/1 morning line — that's real value for the top-rated horse in the race. Noel Herman rides for trainer Richard Vega, and while the 11% career win rate is modest, it's squarely in line with the claiming-turf crowd here. With a mile on the grass giving closers a chance to organize, Roxton's profile at that price makes him our clear top choice.
I'm Due (No. 1) is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 with an 82.05 rating that's essentially a dead heat with Roxton at the top. Angel Cruz takes over the ride for trainer Jose A. Gallegos, and a 9% career win rate in what appears to be a well-traveled career at this level means this horse knows the job. The inside post could be a gift or a trap on a turf mile, but the raw ability to finish in the top two is clearly there.
Atomico (No. 2) at 8/1 on a 76.24 TrackWiz rating is quietly one of the better-rated horses in this field and fits perfectly as a show-ticket hedge. Yabriel O. Ramos gets the mount for trainer Robert A. Wolfe Jr., and a 9% career win rate in claiming turf company suggests a horse that competes but needs things to set up. At a mile, pace often strings out the field, and Atomico's rating puts him squarely in the mix for a minor share of the purse.
Our three free races today cover a lot of ground — literally. Race 1 is a 6-furlong dirt maiden where Majestic Rain (9/5 morning line, TrackWiz rating 88.83) looks like the class of a thin field. Race 2 flips to a 5-furlong turf sprint in allowance company, where Pageant Princess (5/2, 87.81) projects as the one to beat in what should be a quick-tempo affair. Then Race 3 gives us our best longshot angle of the free card: Roxton at 6/1 going a flat mile on the turf, with a rating of 82.71 that quietly stacks up well against the field.
The common thread across these three? Each of our top picks has the pace profile to either control the race or pounce late depending on how the early fractions develop — and on a clear, fast-surface day like today, that kind of versatility is exactly what you want. Roxton in particular is a name to keep in mind for exacta and trifecta wheels if you're looking to maximize value on the turf mile.
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Bottom line for Penn National on August 18: Majestic Rain is the most confident play on the free card, Pageant Princess anchors a turf sprint worth leaning on, and Roxton is the longshot angle we're excited about at 6/1. The premium card has some legitimate pace puzzles — the kind where our analysis earns its keep. Full-card subscribers get everything they need to attack this card from top to bottom. See you at the windows.