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Penn National Picks & Predictions — August 14, 2026

August 14, 20269 racesAll Penn National picks

It's a beautiful Friday afternoon at Penn National — clear skies, 83°F, and the kind of firm turf conditions that reward class horses with clean running room. Nine races are on the board today, and there's something for every kind of player, from maiden sprints on the dirt to a trio of stakes showdowns on the grass.

What makes today's card stand out is that front-loaded stakes action on the turf. Races 1 through 3 are all contested on the green, giving us an early read on how the course is playing before the dirt sprints and routes take over in the back half. Pay close attention to pace and position — firm turf on a warm afternoon can set up beautifully for closers with a quick turn of foot.

TrackWiz has full ratings on all nine races. The first three are on us — free for every reader. Races 4 through 9 are available to subscribers, and today's card is absolutely worth the deep dive.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:45 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 fur · Turf

An 11-horse turf sprint with a wide-open feel — the morning line favorite is just 5/2 and our top-rated horse is sitting at double-digit odds, so there's real value to be found if you know where to look.

win2Showtime MatineeML 10/1

Showtime Matinee is our top-rated horse in this field at 76.88 despite being posted at 10/1 on the morning line — that gap between rating and odds is exactly the kind of overlay TrackWiz analysis loves to target. Trainer Cody Beattie sends him out with Yabriel O. Ramos aboard, and a 25% career win rate shows this horse knows how to finish the job. On a five-furlong turf sprint, early pace distribution matters, and Showtime Matinee's profile suggests he can sit just off the speed and pounce. Don't let that morning line fool you — this one deserves to be much shorter.

place8Fierce and StrongML 5/2

Fierce and Strong is the morning line choice at 5/2 for good reason — a 31% career win rate is strong, and trainer Michael W. Salvaggio, Jr. has Angel R. Rodriguez in the irons, a reliable pilot in this circuit. The TrackWiz rating of 72.43 ranks second in the field, making her a logical place anchor in your exacta and trifecta plays.

show9Uncle DarML 8/1

Uncle Dar is an interesting piece at 8/1 — the TrackWiz rating of 70.68 puts him third in the field and trainer J. Tyler Servis is well-respected at this level. The 16% career win rate is modest, but in a wide-open stakes sprint on turf, hitting the board is a realistic ask, and Mychel J. Sanchez is comfortable at Penn National.

Race 2

10:14 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Two horses are bunched at the top of our ratings in this turf route stakes, but the morning line favorite is sitting off the pace with questions about consistency — expect a contentious battle through the stretch.

win2Ramses the GreatML 6/1

Ramses the Great tops the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 and projects as the most talented horse in this field despite a 14% career win rate that hints he hasn't always run to his potential. Trainer Nolan Ramsey ships him to Penn National at 6/1, which looks like fair value for a horse whose raw numbers are best in show. Martin Chuan gets the call, and at a mile and a sixteenth on turf, a horse with this kind of rating ceiling can overcome an inconsistent past. If he brings his A-game, this is the one to beat.

place1Red Zone RunnerML 5/1

Red Zone Runner is just a tick below Ramses at 81.28 and has a much more reassuring 33% career win rate, suggesting Jomar Torres will have a horse underneath him who actually runs to form regularly. Trainer Hugo O. Padilla posts a horse with legitimate credentials, and at 5/1 on the morning line, Red Zone Runner is a natural place slot in exactas keyed to Ramses.

show7Mister MeML 5/1

Mister Me clocks in at 74.36 on the TrackWiz scale and trainer T. Bernard Houghton keeps David Cora in the irons — that continuity matters in turf routes where pace reading is everything. A 28% career win rate is honest, and at 5/1 morning line odds, he's a comfortable show option to round out your trifecta.

Race 3

10:43 PM EDT

Stakes · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Bartlett looks like a standout at the top of this turf route stakes, but the pace scenario is legitimately interesting with multiple closer types who could benefit if the early speed collapses.

win2BartlettML 2/1

Bartlett is simply the class of this field — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating is the highest of any horse on today's card through Race 3, and a 46% career win rate for trainer John C. Servis is genuinely elite. Frankie Pennington picks up the mount and Bartlett's 2/1 morning line reflects legitimate short-price respect from the oddsmakers. The combination of top-end figures and a winning trainer who clearly has this horse conditioned properly makes Bartlett our most confident win pick on the turf card.

place5SpellcastML 5/1

Spellcast brings something eye-catching to the table: a 47% career win rate is the kind of number that tells you this horse competes hard and doesn't just run for a check. Rocco Bowen aboard for trainer Timothy E. Hamm, with a TrackWiz rating of 67.0 that puts him third in the field — Spellcast is the most logical place threat to Bartlett's dominance.

show3CrisperML 8/1

Crisper is an 8/1 shot worth weaving into your exotics, rated 63.55 by TrackWiz and trained by Tim Woolley with Julio A. Hernandez up. A 20% career win rate on paper doesn't scream confidence, but his average speed figure of 55 ties him with two other entrants for the best in the field — if the pace sets up right, Crisper can close into a piece of this at a price.

Our three free races tell a compelling early story. The card opens with a 5-furlong turf sprint where Showtime Matinee catches our eye at a juicy 10/1 morning line — the kind of price that gets our attention when the TrackWiz rating supports it. Race 2 stretches out to 1 1/16 miles on the turf, and Ramses the Great at 6/1 looks like a genuine value play in what shapes up as a pace-honest stakes affair. Then in Race 3, Bartlett comes in as the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with our highest free-race rating of the day at 88.54 — that's a number that commands respect.

The connecting thread across these three? Firm turf, stakes-caliber competition, and morning lines that suggest the market hasn't fully caught up to what our analysis is seeing. If the turf plays true to form in the early races, it could set the table for some strong exotics opportunities across the trifecta and exacta pools.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:12 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

This Starter Optional Claiming mile on dirt is a battle of speed figures, with the top-rated horse going off at a competitive 3/1 and several closers lurking at overlaid prices — pace will be the deciding factor.

win1Coach KrivML 3/1

Coach Kriv leads our ratings at 87.08 for trainer Brandon L. Kulp, who puts Angel R. Rodriguez in the irons — a strong combination at Penn National. The 3/1 morning line is fair for the top-rated horse in the field, and while the 16% career win rate looks modest, that figure likely reflects a horse who's been running in tougher spots and is now squarely placed. At a mile and 70 yards on dirt, Coach Kriv's profile suggests he'll be pressing the pace and have enough left to hold on.

place5ShowmanceML 5/1

Showmance is a compelling place play at 5/1 — the 80.74 TrackWiz rating is second-best in the field and trainer Trevor Gallimore sends out Kleiner A. Mejias. The 11% career win rate suggests this is a horse who finds the board more than he wins, which actually makes him ideal for a place wager. Don't overthink it — second-best figure often lands second.

show2TimsML 2/1

Tims is the 2/1 morning line choice which puts him at a shorter price than our analysis suggests he deserves, but a 78.26 TrackWiz rating still ranks third in the field. Trainer Hugo O. Padilla has Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. up, and the 8% career win rate is a mild concern — this looks more like a horse who hits the board than one who wins outright, making show a natural fit for the ticket.

Race 5

11:41 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden special weight sprint on dirt with several first-time starters in the mix — speed figures and morning line separation point toward a clear top pair, but maiden races can always surprise.

win5Walkers BeachML 9/2

Walkers Beach earns the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 84.90 and trainer T. Bernard Houghton sends out Ricardo Chiappe — a jockey-trainer combo with familiarity that matters in maiden company. Posted at 9/2 on the morning line, there's some overlay potential here given how clearly her rating separates from the pack. With an average speed figure of 53 already on the books, she's shown she can put in a respectable work in company, and the projection is that she steps forward in her best effort yet.

place4Highway PatrolML 5/2

Highway Patrol is the morning line choice at 5/2 with the second-highest rating in the field at 78.60, and an average speed of 55 is the best among all horses with recorded figures. Trainer Robert Mosco hands the reins to Jorge A. Vargas, Jr., one of the more reliable riders in this colony — he should have Highway Patrol positioned perfectly off the pace to close into a share.

show3AssociatedML 7/2

Associated checks in at 63.51 on the TrackWiz scale with a 7/2 morning line for Scott A. Lake and Angel R. Rodriguez — that's a legitimate rider-trainer combination in a maiden field. An average speed of 53 is respectable, and at a short enough price to suggest connections are live with this one, Associated rounds out the show position in exotics nicely.

Race 6

12:10 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning line favorite at 2/1 doesn't hold up well against the top TrackWiz ratings in this six-furlong claiming sprint — look for the market to correct as post approaches, making the top picks genuinely valuable.

win2Tap and a HugML 3/1

Tap and a Hug leads the field with an 86.70 TrackWiz rating and goes at 3/1 for trainer Brandon L. Kulp with Angel R. Rodriguez, who's been busy on this card and riding with confidence. A 14% career win rate is the one mild knock, but in a claiming field where the average figures are tightly bunched, the rating separation here is meaningful. Tap and a Hug looks like the most complete horse in the race and should be able to press or stalk the pace and kick clear in the lane.

place4Desperate DreamsML 5/1

Desperate Dreams is an intriguing place play at 5/1 — the 84.17 TrackWiz rating is second in the field by a slim margin, and trainer Mark V. Salvaggio has Jomar Torres in the saddle. A 8% career win rate is low, but that's often a horse who's competitive without always getting the job done — exactly the profile you want for a place ticket. If Tap and a Hug gets beat, this is where the money lands.

show3BramwellML 4/1

Bramwell rates third in the field at 78.76 for trainer T. Bernard Houghton and David Cora, a pairing that's appeared multiple times on today's card. The 7% career win rate keeps expectations measured, but at 4/1 on the morning line, Bramwell's speed and class profile makes him a natural trifecta piece in a race where the top three figures are well ahead of the bottom of the field.

Race 7

12:39 AM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The top of the field is tightly packed in this six-furlong starter allowance on dirt, with two co-morning line favorites and a closer who could steal the show at a mild overlay price.

win1Heard On ThestreetML 5/2

Heard On Thestreet is our top-rated horse in the race at 87.81, co-listed as the 5/2 morning line favorite with trainer Timothy C. Kreiser and Martin Chuan up. A 23% career win rate is honest at this level, and an average speed figure of 56 is tied for best in the field. In a six-furlong dirt sprint, pace positioning is key — Heard On Thestreet's profile suggests he'll be close to the early pace and have the class edge to pull away in the final furlong.

place3Five DreamsML 4/1

Five Dreams is our place selection at 4/1 for trainer Bruce M. Kravets with Ricardo Chiappe, a rider who tends to generate results when given quality mounts. At 76.02 on the TrackWiz scale, Five Dreams ranks third in the field by rating, and a 19% career win rate in starter allowance company means this horse has been around the track enough to run a professional race. The 4/1 price makes him a strong place wager and a live exacta partner with the top pick.

show2Band CampML 5/2

Band Camp is the other 5/2 morning line entry for trainer Daniel G. Eubanks with Julio A. Hernandez up, and a 35% career win rate is legitimately the best strike rate in this field. The TrackWiz rating of 74.67 slots him third, but that win percentage suggests he's a horse who fires when he's right — include him underneath in trifectas as he's too consistent to leave off the ticket.

Race 8

1:08 AM EDT

Ratings Handicap · 6 fur · Dirt

One horse dominates the ratings in this six-furlong handicap on dirt, but she's going off as morning line chalk — the value play in this race is finding the right place and show partners at bigger numbers.

win3ChainaML 2/1

Chaina is the standout at 88.54, tied for the top rating we've seen anywhere on today's card, and trainer Brandon L. Kulp — who's been active all night — sends out Angel R. Rodriguez for what looks like a live shot. The 25% career win rate is solid, and an average speed figure of 55 is best among all entrants. Going off at 2/1, the price isn't lavish, but when you have the top-rated horse in a field this deep, you back her and move on.

place1Qualified HireML 5/1

Qualified Hire opens at 5/1 and TrackWiz rates her at 64.78 — second-best in the field by a notable margin. Trainer Cody Beattie sends out Wilfredo Corujo, and a 25% career win rate mirrors the top pick's consistency. This is a spot where the place price on a legitimate second horse in the hierarchy is where the real value lives tonight.

show2Eclair BlancML 5/2

Eclair Blanc is the 5/2 second choice on the morning line but our ratings put her third at 61.50 — suggesting the public may be slightly overrating her. That said, trainer Michael M. Moore and Eliseo Ruiz form a competent connection, and a 12% career win rate in this type of race still means she hits the board often enough. She's a reasonable show piece in trifectas, especially if the chalk dominates up top.

Race 9

1:37 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming closer on the card where none of these horses have won — the TrackWiz ratings tell a story of clear separation at the top, but maiden races at this level can always throw a curveball.

win5I'mamaterialgirlML 6/1

I'mamaterialgirl tops the field with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating — the second-highest in this maiden field — and goes at 6/1 on the morning line for trainer Jose Corrales with Jorge F. Hernandez aboard. In a maiden claiming race where all runners are winless, that rating gap is significant and suggests this filly has shown flashes of quality that the clockers and connections have noticed. At 6/1, there's real overlay value here compared to what the numbers suggest, and this is the horse TrackWiz analysis is most confident about in the final race of the card.

place8Endless GlowML 4/1

Endless Glow sits just below our top pick at 80.11 and trainer Brandon L. Kulp — who's had a busy and productive night — gives Angel R. Rodriguez the mount at 4/1. That jockey-trainer combination has been live all card, and in a maiden race where class and preparation matter most, having Kulp and Rodriguez in your corner is a meaningful edge. She's the logical place partner and a strong exacta inclusion underneath the win pick.

show6She's BankableML 10/1

She's Bankable is a legitimate longshot angle at 10/1 with a 64.02 TrackWiz rating — third-best in this field by a comfortable margin. Trainer Kathleen A. Demasi puts Eliseo Ruiz in the irons, and while these maidens are hard to read, the rating separation from the bottom of the field is real. At 10/1, this is the kind of trifecta closer that can turn a modest win ticket into a meaningful score — worth including in your deep exotics.

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Bottom line: Penn National is serving up a quality nine-race card under ideal conditions, with Bartlett and the turf stakes leading the way for free readers. Coach Kriv, Tap and a Hug, Heard On Thestreet, and Chaina headline what our analysis sees as a loaded premium half of the card. Grab the full breakdown, build your tickets, and let's make it a profitable Friday at the Penn.

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