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Penn National Picks & Predictions — August 7, 2026

August 7, 20267 racesAll Penn National picks

Penn National is running all 7 races on a rain-soaked strip this Friday, with temperatures hovering around 80°F and steady precipitation already working the dirt. That means one thing front and center for your handicapping: track bias. Wet Penn National dirt has historically rewarded horses that can get to the front early and keep their feet under them — so pace scenario and mud-handling matter more today than on a typical dry afternoon.

The card spans a nice variety of conditions — Maiden Claiming, Starter Allowance, Allowance Optional Claiming, and straight Claiming races — so there's no shortage of angles to attack. Seven races, three of them free for every TrackWiz reader, and four premium breakdowns for subscribers who want the full picture.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:45 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A clear class standout tops this Starter Optional Claiming mile, but the second and third choices are close enough in the ratings to make the exotics interesting.

win3Good Man DanML 2/1

Good Man Dan (3) is the horse to beat here and it isn't particularly close on TrackWiz ratings — an 88.54 towers over the rest of this field. Trainer Mark Beecher sends him out with Angel R. Rodriguez in the irons, a reliable combination at this level. His 16% career win rate is solid for a Starter Optional Claiming field, and the added distance of 1 mile and 70 yards should suit a horse whose profile points to stamina over pure speed.

place2Brother PaulML 4/1

Brother Paul (2) checks in second on our ratings at 69.12 and draws the two-hole, which sets up nicely for a pace-tracking trip over the Penn National dirt. Trainer Erin C. McClellan has him ready, and at 4/1 on the morning line there's genuine place value if Good Man Dan runs them off their feet on the front end.

show1PassionforgloryML 5/1

Passionforglory (1) rates third on our numbers at 65.65 and carries a 16% career win rate — matching Good Man Dan's mark — which tells you this horse knows how to fire. At 5/1 on the morning line, including her in your exacta and trifecta coverage is a worthwhile hedge, especially in a race stretching out past a mile where stamina and trip can shuffle the order.

Race 2

10:14 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Ratings say one thing and career win percentages say another in this six-furlong Starter Optional Claiming sprint, setting up a potential price play if the top-rated horse fires at a fair price.

win2Alyvia MavisML 4/1

Alyvia Mavis (2) tops the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 85.62, a meaningful edge over the rest of the group. What makes the case here interesting is that her 3% career win rate looks underwhelming on paper, but that rating suggests her recent form cycle is sharply on the upswing — this is a horse whose figures tell a different story than raw win percentage. Trainer Trevor Gallimore sends her out at 4/1 with Kleiner A. Mejias up, and the six-furlong dirt sprint is a trip that should complement her current form.

place5Kelly's Into LuckML 4/1

Kelly's Into Luck (5) is the standout win-percentage horse in the field at 25% career wins — the best mark in today's race — and her TrackWiz rating of 76.52 keeps her comfortably in the top tier. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp has this horse winning at a consistent clip, and with Angel R. Rodriguez aboard, she should be a factor throughout. At 4/1 on the morning line, she's legitimate win-or-place value.

show4DivulgeML 5/2

Divulge (4) brings the top average speed figure in the field, and her 76.03 rating puts her right in the mix. Trainer Brandon McFarlane fields two runners today, which can be a sign of a barn in good form, and at 5/2 she figures to attract plenty of public support. She's not our top pick, but her raw speed numbers make her a logical show inclusion in trifecta plays.

Race 3

10:43 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Maiden Claiming sprints over six furlongs can be chaotic, and with every horse in this field still looking for that first career win, small edges in figures separate the contenders.

win3ChubblesomeML 9/5

Chubblesome (3) leads our ratings at 59.45 and carries the morning-line favoritism at 9/5, so the crowd is largely in agreement with TrackWiz's numbers here. Trainer Flint W. Stites sends him out with Wilfredo Corujo in the irons, and an average speed figure of 53 is the median of this field. In a wide-open maiden event where no horse has won, the horse with the clearest edge in our model is worth backing.

place2Johnny MacML 7/2

Johnny Mac (2) rates second on our numbers at 55.83 and is listed without an average speed figure — suggesting this may be a first-time starter or horse with limited published data, which adds intrigue rather than concern. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets has him sitting at 7/2 on the morning line, and David Cora gets the call. First-time starters or lightly-raced runners can be live at big prices in maiden fields, and our model likes what it sees.

show4Lorden's PrideML 5/2

Lorden's Pride (4) rates 55.67 on our scale and is trained by Kathleen A. Demasi, who also runs Passionforglory in Race 1 — a barn clearly active on the card tonight. Andrew Wolfsont takes the mount at 5/2 odds, making this the second choice in the market. In a tight maiden field, her inclusion in the trifecta at a fair price makes sense.

Our three free-preview races kick off the card and give you a solid foundation for the day. Good Man Dan opens things up in Race 1 — a Starter Optional Claiming mile-and-70-yards that should test stamina on what figures to be a tiring, wet surface. He carries our top TrackWiz rating of 88.54 and draws the morning line favoritism at 2/1 for good reason. In Race 2, Alyvia Mavis takes the sprint distance at 6 furlongs in another Starter Optional Claiming spot — a 4/1 morning line that could represent real value if the pace scenario sets up kindly. Race 3 is the Maiden Claiming sprint, where Chubblesome (9/5) gets the nod despite a more modest rating of 59.45 — par for the course in a maiden field where consistency beats brilliance.

One thread tying these free picks together: in wet conditions at a track like Penn National, look for horses who've shown they can handle off-track surfaces without losing their rhythm. Early pace on a sealed or muddy strip can get brutal, and closers who struggle to find purchase in the slop often get left behind.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses in this six-furlong Claiming sprint rate well above the rest of the field, but the TrackWiz top pick is an overlay at 4/1 versus a morning-line favorite rated nearly as well.

win6Ellie's BoyfriendML 4/1

Ellie's Boyfriend (6) is our top-rated horse in Race 4 at 85.62 — edging morning-line favorite Bermuda Triangle by two full points — yet the morning line has her at 4/1. That's a value discrepancy worth noting. Her 21% career win rate is the best in the field, and trainer Bruce M. Kravets sends her out with David Cora, a pairing that shows up multiple times on today's card. Six furlongs on the Penn National dirt suits her profile.

place3Bermuda TriangleML 2/1

Bermuda Triangle (3) is the public's choice at 2/1 and backs it up with an 83.62 TrackWiz rating — legitimately good, just not quite as high as our top pick. Trainer Timothy C. Kreiser has her at a career win rate of 16%, and with Martin Chuan aboard she figures to be on or near the front end early. If Ellie's Boyfriend lays back, Bermuda Triangle could steal this one on the lead.

show4Chain ReactionML 9/2

Chain Reaction (4) rates 72.24 and brings a 14% career win rate to the table — modest but consistent at this level. Trainer Cody Beattie has the horse in decent form, and Inoel Beato is a capable jockey who knows this oval well. At 9/2 on the morning line, Chain Reaction is worth slotting in as the show component of your trifecta.

Race 5

11:41 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A dominant top-rated horse at 2/1 headlines this Allowance Optional Claiming sprint, but the second and third choices bring enough quality to keep the exotics from being a foregone conclusion.

win2ConfiscatedML 2/1

Confiscated (2) is the class of this Allowance Optional Claiming field with a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 — tied for the highest mark we've seen on tonight's card. What really jumps out is that 30% career win rate, best in the field by a wide margin and an exceptional number at any level. Trainer Kathleen A. Demasi is clearly having a strong evening, running multiple horses, and Jomar Torres gets the mount. The 2/1 morning line is deserved; this horse is the one to beat.

place3OneofthegoodguysML 3/1

Oneofthegoodguys (3) sits second in our ratings at 71.77 and matches Confiscated with an average speed figure of 56 — the joint-best in the field. Trainer Cody Beattie has him primed, and Inoel Beato handles the riding duties. At 3/1 he's a solid place play: if Confiscated over-extends herself on the front end, Oneofthegoodguys has the figures to close.

show4Windsor GoldML 5/2

Windsor Gold (4) rates 57.19 and carries a solid 21% career win rate — matching Rebel Invasion and trailing only Confiscated among the field. Trainer Michael M. Moore sends him out with Dexter Haddock at 5/2, meaning the market respects him even if our model puts him third. His average speed of 54 is right in range, and he's a logical show anchor in trifectas.

Race 6

12:10 AM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The top two horses in this Starter Allowance mile are separated by less than three rating points, setting up a genuine duel between two evenly-matched front-runners with identical career win percentages.

win2Mr. RippleML 3/1

Mr. Ripple (2) leads our ratings at 87.08 and is the morning-line second choice at 3/1, which looks like mild value given his edge over the field. What's compelling is that his 28% career win rate mirrors Kissthemoon's exactly — these two horses are extremely close — but Mr. Ripple's TrackWiz edge gives him the nod. Trainer Timothy C. Kreiser keeps him sharp, and Martin Chuan is a competent handler over this oval. The added distance of 1 mile and 70 yards is the key question; horses with staying profiles often separate from the pack in the stretch.

place1KissthemoonML 4/1

Kissthemoon (1) is essentially a coin-flip with our top pick on paper — 84.47 rating, identical 28% career win rate, and a sharp connection with Angel R. Rodriguez and trainer Brandon L. Kulp. She gets the rail draw, which on Penn National's dirt can be an advantage or a disadvantage depending on where the speed is drawn. At 4/1 on the morning line, she's legitimate win contention and a near-lock for our place coverage.

show6Tudox OpportunityML 4/1

Tudox Opportunity (6) brings the standout career win percentage in this field at 35% — well above the field — and trainer Elisha Perez sends him out with Jomar Torres, who has been active on tonight's card. His average speed of 55 is the best in the race, and at 4/1 he's an intriguing show play. The main knock is that his 69.47 rating trails both top choices significantly, but a horse that wins 35% of the time has clearly found ways to get the job done.

Race 7

12:39 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Candothis dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this one-mile Claiming race, but the real story is the value lurking underneath — our place pick is an 8/1 morning-line price with a legitimate case.

win4CandothisML 2/1

Candothis (4) posts an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the top mark in this race and one of the highest figures on the entire card tonight. Trainer Melecio Saldana Guerrero sends him out as the 2/1 morning-line favorite, and Kleiner A. Mejias handles the mount. The only caveat is that a 6% career win rate is low for a horse the market trusts this much, which suggests he may be lightly raced or facing a winnable spot for the first time at the right class level — both of which are reasons to like rather than avoid.

place3OctetML 8/1

Octet (3) is the value play of this race — rated 65.14 by TrackWiz but sitting at 8/1 on the morning line, a significant disconnect. Trainer Mark V. Salvaggio has him ready, and Inoel Beato is one of the more active jockeys on the Penn National circuit tonight. His average speed figure of 54 is the best in the field, and if he gets a clean trip around one mile of Penn National dirt, he can certainly run into the money.

show2Yo LevenML 3/1

Yo Leven (2) is the third choice in the morning line at 3/1 with a 56.21 TrackWiz rating, and trainer Jonathan Maldonado sends him out with Yomar Orlando Ortiz up. His 5% career win rate is modest, but at 3/1 on the board he's attracting public confidence that the raw percentage alone doesn't explain — there may be a form angle here worth respecting. He's our show pick in exactas and trifectas.

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Bottom line: Good Man Dan (R1) and Confiscated (R5) are the two names to circle on this rain-soaked Penn National card, with Candothis (R7) rounding out the marquee plays. The wet dirt adds a layer of uncertainty, but it also creates opportunity for sharp handicappers willing to dig into surface form. Free picks are live for Races 1–3 — and if you want the full-card breakdown including pace maps, exotic strategies, and premium ratings for Races 4–7, subscribe to TrackWiz and get everything in one place. Good luck out there.

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