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Penn National Picks & Predictions — August 12, 2026

August 12, 20267 racesAll Penn National picks

This card ran on August 12, 2026.

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Best bets at Penn National, August 12, 2026

Race 12Hope's AliveML 5/25:45 PM EDT

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Penn National fires up a seven-race all-dirt card this Wednesday afternoon with partly cloudy skies and a comfortable 83°F holding conditions in good shape. No weather-related excuses today — the main track should be playing fair and fast, which means speed figures and pace scenarios are going to matter in a big way.

We've got a nice mix of race types spread across the card — two Ratings Handicaps, a pair of straight Claimers, an Allowance, an Allowance Optional Claiming, and another Claimer — all going at one mile or six furlongs on the dirt. It's a workmanlike Penn National afternoon, but there's real money to be made if you know where to look.

TrackWiz analysis has flagged several horses with significant ratings advantages over their fields today, and at least one prime value angle in the early going. Let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:45 PM EDT

Ratings Handicap · 1 mi · Dirt

Hope's Alive enters this mile ratings handicap as a clear class standout on the TrackWiz numbers, but Karlwithanarl figures to keep it honest and make bettors earn every dollar at short prices.

win2Hope's AliveML 5/2

Hope's Alive carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81 — a meaningful gap over the second-best horse — and backs it up with a 35% career win rate that is the best in this field by a wide margin. Jockey Yabriel O. Ramos gets a horse that has demonstrated a consistent ability to win, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the price is fair for a horse that grades out this far above the competition. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets has a live one here, and a mile on the dirt suits a horse posting an average speed figure of 53.

place3KarlwithanarlML 2/1

Karlwithanarl is the morning line favorite at 2/1 and posts a solid 81.18 TrackWiz rating, making this the most logical place horse in the race. With a 25% career win rate and matching average speed figure of 53, Angel R. Rodriguez has plenty to work with — if Hope's Alive gets loose on the front end, Karlwithanarl's profile suggests a closer-type that can pick up the pieces.

show5GanglyML 9/2

Gangly is the exotic play in here at 9/2 with a 65.67 rating — a tier below the top two but clearly ahead of Aggregation and Renewing Vows. With a 23% career win rate and solid consistency, trainer Timothy C. Kreiser knows how to spot horses in spots where they can hit the board, making Gangly a sensible show anchor in trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

6:14 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

Western Woman's TrackWiz rating towers over a competitive allowance field, but the morning line favorite Didn't It Rain makes this a pace question worth solving before you box a ticket.

win4Western WomanML 7/2

Western Woman tops this field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating despite checking in at just 7/2 on the morning line — that's a mild overlay worth noting. Her average speed figure of 54 ties for best in the field alongside Didn't It Rain, and trainer Steven Krebs gets a 18% career winner that looks primed to run a big number at a mile. Angel R. Rodriguez in the irons adds confidence, as he's got a live book of horses to work with on this card.

place2DaleML 5/1

Dale is the value angle here at 5/1 morning line, and his 77.14 rating is quietly the second-best in the field. The 27% career win rate is the best in this race — this horse knows how to finish — and if the pace scenario sets up for a closer, Francisco Martinez could find himself with a clear run at the top two at a generous price.

show5Ecliptical GinaML 4/1

Ecliptical Gina rounds out our exotics at 4/1 and posts a 75.78 rating — solidly in the mix. Her 53 average speed figure fits the pace profile for this mile allowance, and Ricardo Chiappe's presence in the irons keeps her competitive. At 4/1, she's a legitimate show play and worth including underneath in trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

The first three races on the card are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, and they present a solid starting point. Hope's Alive opens the day in Race 1 — a Ratings Handicap going one mile — with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating that stands out at a morning line of 5/2. That kind of rating edge in a mile race on a track playing fair is exactly the spot we target. Race 2 brings Western Woman to the Allowance ranks at 7/2 on the morning line, with an 86.35 rating suggesting she's live at a price that could offer real value. Then Race 3 shifts the focus to the sprints, where Sofster pops up at 5/1 in a 6-furlong Claimer — a morning line that screams potential overlay if the TrackWiz 84.17 rating holds up against the field.

Across these three races, keep an eye on how the early pace shapes up in the sprint. Six furlongs on Penn's dirt tends to favor horses with clean trips out of the gate — anything that gets caught wide early in that field will have work to do late.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

6:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open six-furlong claiming sprint where the two horses at the top of the TrackWiz ratings are separated by less than two points — pace is going to be everything here.

win3SofsterML 5/1

Sofster comes in with the top TrackWiz rating at 84.17 and the best average speed figure in the field at 54, which is the kind of combination that wins at this level. Trainer Silvino Ramirez sends Sofster out at a 5/1 morning line — that's a decent overlay given the raw numbers — and jockey Yabriel O. Ramos, who also rides our Race 1 top pick, brings added confidence. A 13% career win rate is modest, but the speed figure data says this horse is running better than that number suggests.

place1Date Night KissesML 5/2

Date Night Kisses is right there with an 82.67 rating and is the morning line second choice at 5/2. With a 20% career win rate and a 52 average speed figure, this is a horse that knows how to compete in this company — trainer Michael V. Pino gets a horse in good form, and Angel R. Rodriguez makes a second appearance on the card in a key spot. A photo finish between these two wouldn't surprise anyone.

show7Combat HoofsML 4/1

Combat Hoofs checks in at 4/1 with a 74.05 rating and posts a 55 average speed figure — actually the joint-highest in the field alongside Arrogante. With a 16% career win rate and Bruce M. Kravets in the trainer's box, this horse has the profile of a horse that runs well in short-field sprint claiming races and is worth anchoring the show slot in trifectas.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

7:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Special Affair's TrackWiz rating blows this field apart in a six-furlong claimer, but a razor-thin 4% career win rate raises legitimate questions about whether the talent translates into results when the gate opens.

win4Special AffairML 3/1

Special Affair posts an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field by more than 13 points — and that kind of separation in a claiming field usually means business. At 3/1, trainer Kevin J. Fields puts Wilfredo Corujo up on a horse that grades out as a cut above, and if the speed figures translate into an actual performance, this race belongs to her. The 4% career win rate is the one flag, but in claiming company at this level, one big effort can make all the difference.

place7Style to FollowML 9/2

Style to Follow at 9/2 is the place pick and a legitimate value play — a 73.36 TrackWiz rating is second in this field, and a 14% career win rate with Bruce M. Kravets training suggests a horse that's been competitive at this level before. Yabriel O. Ramos in the irons is a jockey who's shown up throughout this card with live mounts, and if Special Affair gets compromised early, Style to Follow is positioned to collect.

show2Celtic TigerML 2/1

Celtic Tiger is the morning line favorite at 2/1 and our show pick — a 62.58 rating with a 17% career win rate and a 54 average speed figure makes this horse clearly a factor even if it's outgunned at the top. Trainer Ricardo A. Murillo gets Inoel Beato in the irons, and the public money will likely be here, making Celtic Tiger a rock-solid show anchor even at a short price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 5

7:41 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Pure Lure looks like the class of this allowance optional claiming field and figures as a short-priced favorite, so the real betting interest will be in whether Little Cocoa Bean or Cardinal War Cry can keep up.

win5Pure LureML 8/5

Pure Lure tops this field with an 89.12 TrackWiz rating — the highest of any horse we've seen in any race on this card — and backs it up with a 21% career win rate and a 55 average speed figure. Andy Hernandez gets a horse that should be competitive on pure ability alone, and at 8/5, trainer Michael M. Moore is sending out a genuine favorite. This looks like a singles situation if you're playing multi-race wagers.

place3Little Cocoa BeanML 7/2

Little Cocoa Bean is the most interesting place play on the card at 7/2 — an 84.03 TrackWiz rating is well above average for this field, and a 20% career win rate with trainer Irving Rodriguez shows consistent form. Jockey Eliseo Ruiz gets a horse that could easily turn this into a two-horse race with Pure Lure if the pace sets up right, making 7/2 feel like fair value for a legitimate runner.

show1Cardinal War CryML 5/2

Cardinal War Cry is our show pick at 5/2 morning line with a solid 77.73 rating and the best career win rate among the top three picks at 23%. Trainer Michael W. Salvaggio Jr. gets a 55 average speed figure horse with David Cora aboard — this is a horse that's been around the track and knows how to hit the board. At 5/2, the price won't blow you away, but the consistency profile makes Cardinal War Cry a reliable show leg.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 6

8:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

War Code dominates the TrackWiz ratings in this six-furlong claimer, but keep your eye on The Beast Master — a 50% career win rate is a number that demands respect no matter what the morning line says.

win3War CodeML 2/1

War Code has an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — a commanding lead over the rest of this field — and posts a competitive 54 average speed figure with an 18% career win rate. Trainer Mark V. Salvaggio gets Jomar Torres in the irons, and at 2/1 morning line, the public is already on board with this assessment. In a six-furlong claiming sprint, a horse that grades this far above the field is usually the right play.

place6The Beast MasterML 4/1

The Beast Master is the horse you can't ignore in this race — a 50% career win rate is extraordinary at any level, and while the 82.62 TrackWiz rating is second in this field, that win percentage suggests a horse that has a knack for getting to the wire first. Ricardo Chiappe rides for Bruce M. Kravets, a combo that's active all over this card tonight, and at 4/1, The Beast Master could easily reverse the order on War Code.

show1Warrior's Way OutML 8/1

Warrior's Way Out is a 8/1 longshot show pick with a 53.29 TrackWiz rating and a 54 average speed figure — not the most glamorous number, but in a field that has two standouts at the top, a horse with live speed could land in the money if the pace falls apart. Trainer Jose F. Bobadilla spots this horse in here with Manuel Aguilar aboard, and the 5% career win rate is a concern, but show play at 8/1 offers plenty of value in trifecta construction.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

8:39 PM EDT

Ratings Handicap · 6 fur · Dirt

Neolithica and Eleni are separated by less than a point in TrackWiz ratings at the top of this ratings handicap, setting up a potential duel that could leave the rest of the field scrambling for scraps.

win3NeolithicaML 5/2

Neolithica leads the field with an 84.81 TrackWiz rating and backs it up with the most impressive career win rate among the top contenders at 40% — that's a horse that knows how to finish first. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets saddles Yabriel O. Ramos here in a Kravets-Ramos combo that appears multiple times on this card with live horses. At 5/2, this isn't a massive overlay, but the combination of elite rating and a dominant win rate makes Neolithica the clear top selection.

place7EleniML 5/1

Eleni is within a whisker of Neolithica at 84.17 and posts a 55 average speed figure — matching the field's best alongside several others. Trainer Paulina Sinnefia sends Dexter Haddock out at 5/1, which represents genuine value for a horse rated this competitively. The 10% career win rate is modest, but TrackWiz analysis suggests Eleni's best may not have shown up in the win column yet — and the place column is where value plays thrive.

show6The Feisty OneML 6/1

The Feisty One rounds out our trifecta at 6/1 with a 70.71 rating that puts her solidly in the third tier of this field. A 21% career win rate is respectable, and David Cora picks up the mount for Bruce M. Kravets — who also trains the top pick Neolithica, so this barn clearly has a presence throughout this race. At 6/1, The Feisty One is worth keying underneath in trifectas as a horse that can find a share.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

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It's a solid Wednesday card at Penn National with clear top picks identified across all seven races. Hope's Alive, Western Woman, and Sofster headline the free picks — all three offer ratings advantages you can act on right now. For the full story on Pure Lure, War Code, Special Affair, and Neolithica — along with exotic ticket structures and pace analysis — that's all waiting for subscribers. Check out TrackWiz Premium and get the complete card before first post.

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