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Penn National Picks & Predictions — August 6, 2026

August 6, 20267 racesAll Penn National picks

Happy Thursday from Penn National, where seven races are on tap under a bright, clear sky with temperatures sitting at a comfortable 84°F. The track is riding fast, and on a day like this — no rain in the picture, firm footing — speed figures tend to hold up and front-runners get every opportunity to dictate terms. That's a useful frame as you build your tickets today.

The card spans maiden special weights, claiming races, allowances, and a couple of ratings handicaps, so there's plenty of class variety to dig into. We've got three free races to kick things off — including two contenders, Cappetta and Chaina, who both cracked an 87+ TrackWiz rating — and four premium races that give the card some real teeth later in the afternoon.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

A maiden sprint where experience is thin and speed figures are mostly blank slates — the horses with any prior numbers hold a built-in edge over the first-timers.

win5Schubert SonataML 2/1

Schubert Sonata draws the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 58.33 and comes in with an average speed figure of 54, giving him a measurable edge over several rivals who have no recorded figures at all. Trainer Hugo O. Padilla sends him out with Eliseo Ruiz in the irons, a combo worth watching in this five-furlong dash. At 2/1 on the morning line, he's the favorite for a reason — he's shown something on the clock, and in a maiden field this thin on data, that counts for a lot.

place2Sawyer's SongML 5/2

Sawyer's Song is the only other horse in the field who shows an average speed figure (53), and that prior work gives trainer Jaime Cruz's charge a leg up on the blanks. A rating of 57.5 puts him just behind the top pick, and Maicol J. Inirio gets a live mount at a competitive 5/2 morning line. If Schubert Sonata gets into trouble or flattens late, Sawyer's Song looks like the most natural beneficiary.

show1Tis WellML 3/1

Tis Well breaks from the rail for trainer Cathal A. Lynch with Edwin Gonzalez up, and while there's no career speed figure on record, the TrackWiz rating of 56.67 ranks third in the field. In a wide-open maiden where the top two picks could both get loose, Tis Well offers enough underlying profile to round out a trifecta box at 3/1.

Race 2

10:14 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Cappetta towers over this six-furlong claiming field on ratings, but Jace Is No Joke and Kaz Creed give the race a competitive backbone — don't expect a walkover.

win8CappettaML 5/2

Cappetta is the class of this field by a wide margin, posting a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 — a full 16 points clear of the second-best horse on paper. Trainer Kevin J. Fields sends him out with Emilio Flores aboard, and an average speed figure of 54 is respectable at this level. The 5/2 morning line reflects his status as the horse to beat, and in a claiming sprint where raw ability often wins out, his rating advantage is hard to dismiss.

place2Jace Is No JokeML 5/1

Jace Is No Joke has quietly put together a 14% career win rate and carries a TrackWiz rating of 71.37 — second-best in the field by a comfortable margin. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets is patient at this level, and Ricardo Chiappe is a competent hand at Penn National. If Cappetta faces any pace pressure early or gets into traffic, this one is well-positioned to collect second money.

show4Kaz CreedML 4/1

Kaz Creed is the standout third option here, boasting a 27% career win rate — the highest in the field — which tells you this horse knows how to find the wire. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp has two horses in the race, which often signals a stable in form, and Angel R. Rodriguez gets the call. At 4/1 on the morning line, Kaz Creed is a sensible show bet and a key piece in any exotic plays.

Race 3

10:43 PM EDT

Ratings Handicap · 6 fur · Dirt

Chaina looks like a clear top-rated standout in this ratings handicap, but the place and show spots are genuinely competitive with three horses bunched tightly in the 70s.

win6ChainaML 5/2

Chaina earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.81 — identical to the top score posted in Race 2 — and that kind of separation in a ratings handicap is significant. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp is a familiar name at Penn National and once again deploys Angel R. Rodriguez, keeping a trusted pilot aboard. A 22% career win rate adds real credibility here, and at 5/2, this isn't an overlay, but the numbers strongly support making her your single on top in the exotics.

place1ArroganteML 5/1

Arrogante rates second in the field at 72.13 and has been competitive enough at this level for trainer Elisha Perez. Jomar Torres is up for what looks like a pace-pressing role at 5/1 on the morning line, and a 55 average speed figure suggests he's handling the surface and distance well. In a race where the top pick draws most of the action, Arrogante at morning-line 5/1 could provide some place-payoff value.

show4Bugged OutML 8/1

Bugged Out sits just a whisker behind Arrogante with a 71.94 TrackWiz rating, making the second and third slots extremely tight on paper. Trainer Charles A. DeMario keeps Angel Moreno in the irons, and a 17% career win rate shows he's no stranger to the winner's circle. At 8/1 morning line, he's the genuine value play in the bottom half of the exotics — a trifecta with Chaina on top and these two underneath could pay nicely.

The first three races set the tone nicely. Race 1 is a maiden special weight sprint at five furlongs, and while our top pick Schubert Sonata carries a 58.33 rating that reflects how genuinely wide-open maiden fields can be, we still see a clear edge worth playing. Things get sharper in Races 2 and 3, where Cappetta (87.81) in the six-furlong claiming race and Chaina (87.81) in the ratings handicap both project as strong plays on a fast dirt track where their speed figures translate well. On a clear day with no pace-compromising slop to worry about, high-rated horses at these distances have a real opportunity to wire the field or sit just off the pace and pounce — watch for that theme across the free plays.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:12 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This starter optional claiming sprint sets up as a two-horse race at the top, with Golden Cookie and Penn Franklin separating themselves on ratings — but Bernie Says So's career win percentage is the wild card.

win2Golden CookieML 3/1

Golden Cookie tops our ratings at 87.08 and pairs an average speed figure of 56 — the highest in the field — with trainer Krista Nicole Hetrick sending out Julio A. Hernandez. That speed figure edge is meaningful in a six-furlong sprint where the early pace often sets up the result. While the 9% career win rate isn't flashy, the raw ability numbers are speaking loudest here, and at 3/1, there's fair value for a horse this well-equipped on paper.

place3Penn FranklinML 9/5

Penn Franklin is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 and backs that up with an 84.23 TrackWiz rating — only 2.85 points behind the top pick. Edwin Gonzalez is one of the more active riders at Penn National this meet, and trainer Harold Wyner keeps things straightforward. If Golden Cookie gets shuffled back or encounters trouble, Penn Franklin has the talent to pick up the pieces and land in the exacta.

show5Bernie Says SoML 5/2

Bernie Says So is the one horse in this field you can't completely ignore — a 50% career win rate is an eye-popping number that screams this horse has figured out how to compete. Trainer T. Bernard Houghton has Wilfredo Corujo in the saddle, and a 55 average speed figure keeps him within striking range. At 5/2 on the morning line, he's not a longshot, but he's clearly the third-best option and worth including in your trifecta.

Race 5

11:41 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 1/16 mi · Dirt

A wide-open allowance route where the TrackWiz ratings tell a clearer story than the morning line — the top four horses are all genuinely competitive, and the pace scenario over a mile and a sixteenth adds another layer of intrigue.

win5Tuff LuckML 5/2

Tuff Luck earns a TrackWiz-high 87.81 rating in what shapes up as a quality allowance field, and trainer Demelza McMahon has Angel R. Rodriguez in the irons — the same combo that appears throughout tonight's card with solid results. A 16% career win rate is honest at the allowance level, and his 53 average speed figure gives him a slight edge over most of his rivals going long. At 5/2 on the morning line, this is the most defensible top pick on the card.

place1Prince ColtonML 9/2

Prince Colton earns an 82.23 TrackWiz rating and brings a 15% career win rate to a race that suits him — Julio A. Hernandez is a live booking, and trainer John T. Kirby has quietly assembled a respectable record at this level. His 52 average speed figure matches several rivals, but his overall rating separation from the mid-pack horses makes him the clearest second choice in the field. At 9/2 on the morning line, there's genuine place value here.

show4Armed N DangerousML 4/1

Armed N Dangerous sits third in TrackWiz ratings at 76.02 and owns a 16% career win rate for trainer A. Ferris Allen III, with Jomar Torres handling the ride. In a two-turn race, closers and stalkers often get a chance to run by tired pace-setters, and Armed N Dangerous's profile suggests he could be that horse. At 4/1, he's worth slotting into trifecta combinations as the most likely to grab third money behind the top two.

Race 6

12:10 AM EDT

Ratings Handicap · 6 fur · Dirt

Fire Down Below enters as both the top-rated horse and the one with the most impressive win percentage — but Hey Buddy and Ecumenical make this ratings handicap genuinely competitive across the board.

win4Fire Down BelowML 7/2

Fire Down Below headlines this six-furlong ratings handicap with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and — most impressively — a 33% career win rate, the highest in the field by a wide margin. Trainer Amy Albright sends out Yabriel O. Ramos on a horse whose strike rate suggests he's a consistent performer who converts his chances. A 55 average speed figure keeps him sharp on the clock, and at 7/2, this is a morning line that might actually tighten at post time given how well-established his credentials are.

place5Hey BuddyML 5/2

Hey Buddy is right there with an 82.02 rating and a 22% career win rate — respectable numbers in a field where the margins are tight. Trainer Ernesto Padilla-Preciado deploys Jorge A. Vargas, Jr., one of the stronger names in the Penn National jockey colony, and at 5/2 he's actually the slight morning-line favorite. The question is whether the top rating or the favorite status wins out — either way, he's a lock for your exacta underneath.

show3EcumenicalML 5/1

Ecumenical rounds out our picks with an 80.16 TrackWiz rating and a 25% career win rate — you don't often see that kind of conversion rate in a claiming or handicap field. Trainer Charles A. DeMario has another live entry tonight, and Inoel Beato is a capable pilot for the trip. At 5/1 on the morning line, Ecumenical offers trifecta value and could easily move up if either of the top two have an off trip.

Race 7

12:39 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Bruder and Amusing Mischief have separated themselves from a nine-horse claiming field on ratings, but with nine runners going six furlongs, pace scenarios and post position will matter — this one could get messy early.

win8BruderML 9/2

Bruder edges out the field with an 84.9 TrackWiz rating and backs it up with a 55 average speed figure — the kind of combination you want to see in a sprint. Trainer Todd M. Beattie gets Yabriel O. Ramos aboard, who is having a productive night on the card, and a 13% career win rate is workable in a deep nine-horse field. At 9/2 on the morning line, Bruder represents solid value relative to his rating advantage, and he looks like the right horse to single on top.

place7Amusing MischiefML 3/1

Amusing Mischief is just a point and a half behind the top pick at 83.47, and what really stands out is his 25% career win rate — that's a horse who knows how to finish. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp, who has had runners throughout tonight's card, puts Angel R. Rodriguez on him at 3/1, making this arguably the most live second choice on the board. His speed figure of 55 matches Bruder, which means this could be a dead-heat race between two closely matched horses.

show1Majestic TigerML 4/1

Majestic Tiger rounds out the TrackWiz picks with a 71.16 rating — a noticeable step down from the top two, but still well clear of the rest of the nine-horse field. Trainer Jamie Ness taps Martin Chuan for the ride, and while an 8% career win rate isn't inspiring, his positioning in the field and 4/1 morning line make him a sensible show option and a ticket piece in the trifecta. In a big field, having a third horse in the 70-point range is worth acknowledging when you're spreading exotics.

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Bottom line: Penn National is serving up a clean, fast-track Thursday with real plays from the jump. Cappetta and Chaina are the headliners among the free picks, but the premium races — especially the allowance in Race 5 and the closing claimer in Race 7 — are where the exotic angles really open up. Grab the full breakdown at TrackWiz Premium and go in prepared. Good luck out there.

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