Penn National Picks & Predictions — July 17, 2026
It's a warm Friday afternoon at Penn National — partly cloudy skies and 85°F at post time, the kind of summer day that can push pace scenarios to the limit and leave closers gasping in the stretch. Seven races are on the board, all on the main dirt track, ranging from short-field maiden claimers to a step-up allowance contest that figures to be the card's most competitive race.
Penn National has been a dirt-speed-favoring track in recent summer meets, so watch the front-runners closely today. When the temperature climbs like this, early fractions can get honest in a hurry — and that's the kind of condition that separates the truly fit horses from the ones just getting by on class.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A claiming sprint where the TrackWiz ratings tell a clear story — Ellie's Boyfriend owns a significant edge on paper, but Robert's Moon draws morning-line favoritism, setting up a potential overlay situation worth exploiting.
Ellie's Boyfriend is the top-rated horse in this field by a comfortable margin — an 87.81 TrackWiz rating that's well clear of anything else in here. Trainer Bruce Kravets sends him out with David Cora in the irons, and a 21% career win rate from the connections suggests this barn knows how to get horses to fire. At 5/2 on the morning line, this is actually reasonable value for a horse whose rating towers over the competition in a 6-furlong claiming sprint.
Robert's Moon gets the call as the public's 9/5 morning-line choice, and with a 73.39 rating he's legitimately the second-best horse on paper. The 10% career win rate is modest, but Joseph Rocco Jr. is a capable rider at this level and can keep him in a good spot early through 6 furlongs of dirt. If Ellie's Boyfriend has any hiccup, Moon is your most likely alternative winner.
Spinning Musician offers the best win percentage in the field at 22% and slots in nicely as a show play at 4/1. Trainer Cody Beattie has a knack for putting horses in winnable spots, and a 66.21 rating with an average speed figure of 54 suggests he can run a competitive number. In a five-horse field, he's the natural hedge to round out your tickets.
Race 2
Maiden Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt
A maiden claiming route over a mile on dirt, and this field has never won a race — making the TrackWiz ratings your clearest guide through the fog of maiden uncertainty.
Serendipitous Bid tops this field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and is the 9/5 morning-line choice, so the public is already on board — but the numbers back it up. Trainer Erin McClellan sends out two horses in this race, which is always worth noting; when a barn doubles up, they usually have a preference, and Bid holds the rating edge over stablemate Black Jack Shellac. Jockey Inoel Beato gets the nod here, and an average speed figure of 54 over a mile-plus route on dirt is the best pace profile in the field.
Gigline at 4/1 is an interesting secondary play with a 77.59 rating — second-best in the field and a solid gap above the middle of the pack. Martin Chuan rides for trainer Ramon Davila Aguayo, and while the speed figure of 52 is modest, maiden races can produce surprising results when a horse simply runs their best race on the right day. The morning-line price makes Gigline a legitimate place contender and a useful exacta partner.
Black Jack Shellac is the other McClellan runner in this race and checks in with a 57.50 rating and a 5/2 morning line. The stablemate dynamic is tricky — connections can't win with both horses — but David Cora is a respected rider and Shellac's connections clearly believe there's ability here. As a show play, you're essentially betting on the trainer's barn hitting the board, which is a reasonable approach in a wide-open maiden race.
Race 3
Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A wide-open maiden claiming sprint with seven runners and a field where nobody has broken their maiden yet — the pace scenario through 6 furlongs of dirt could shake up the order dramatically.
Paddy'sheartofgold leads all runners in this maiden field with a 70.04 TrackWiz rating, and at 4/1 on the morning line, trainer Flint Stites and jockey Maicol Inirio are positioning this one as the real deal. An average speed of 54 is the best recorded figure in the field, and in a race where several others have no published speed figure at all, that kind of consistency matters. When the top-rated horse in a maiden race is offering fair morning-line odds rather than being bet down to even money, that's a spot TrackWiz analysis highlights as a value play.
Aunt Nan draws in at 5/2 as one of the more interesting horses in the race — a 57.50 rating with trainer Konstantinos Harigeorgiou, who also has Eddie's Promise in the field. David Cora picks up the mount, which suggests connections are serious about this runner's chances. In a seven-horse maiden field, having a respected jockey on your horse with a legitimate shot at a placing is all you need to justify the play.
Rosesforthequeen is trained by Todd Beattie, who also saddles Explosive Run in this race — so Beattie has two shots at the board. The 55.83 rating and a 7/2 price put Rosesforthequeen as the more likely of the two Beattie runners to hit, and Vladimir Diaz takes the mount. No published speed figure makes this a projection play, but the rating edge over the bottom half of the field is real enough to include in show positions and exotics.
We're releasing three races free to all readers today, and there's a nice thread connecting these picks. In Race 1, Ellie's Boyfriend opens at 5/2 on the morning line and carries our highest free-race confidence score — that 87.81 TrackWiz rating puts him right at the top of the card's value range. Race 2 stretches out to a mile and 70 yards, where Serendipitous Bid comes in as the morning-line favorite at 9/5 with the top overall rating among the free picks at 88.83 — a strong number for a maiden claimer at this level. Race 3 is the wildcard: Paddy'sheartofgold opens at 4/1 with a 70.04 rating, which signals a more open, unpredictable field — exactly the kind of race where a live longshot can blow the ticket up.
The common theme across these three? They're all six furlongs or longer on dirt, which should reward horses with proven stamina and clean early positioning. With the heat baking the track surface, look for horses that broke alertly in their last couple of starts.
Full Card Analysis
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Seven races, a fast Penn National dirt track baking under summer heat, and a handful of horses posting strong TrackWiz ratings — today's card has real potential for both win bettors and exotic players. Start with Ellie's Boyfriend in Race 1 and Serendipitous Bid in Race 2 as your anchors, and keep an eye on the wide-open Race 3. For the full picture — including pace projections, exotic tickets, and the allowance breakdown in Race 7 — the complete analysis is waiting for subscribers at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there.