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Penn National Picks & Predictions — July 17, 2026

July 17, 20267 racesAll Penn National picks

This card ran on July 17, 2026.

Best bets at Penn National, July 17, 2026

Race 13Ellie's BoyfriendML 5/25:45 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 5 races are for members.

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Last 30 days at Penn National: our top pick won 10 of 33 races (30%) and finished in the money in 20.

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It's a warm Friday afternoon at Penn National — partly cloudy skies and 85°F at post time, the kind of summer day that can push pace scenarios to the limit and leave closers gasping in the stretch. Seven races are on the board, all on the main dirt track, ranging from short-field maiden claimers to a step-up allowance contest that figures to be the card's most competitive race.

Penn National has been a dirt-speed-favoring track in recent summer meets, so watch the front-runners closely today. When the temperature climbs like this, early fractions can get honest in a hurry — and that's the kind of condition that separates the truly fit horses from the ones just getting by on class.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A claiming sprint where the TrackWiz ratings tell a clear story — Ellie's Boyfriend owns a significant edge on paper, but Robert's Moon draws morning-line favoritism, setting up a potential overlay situation worth exploiting.

win3Ellie's BoyfriendML 5/2

Ellie's Boyfriend is the top-rated horse in this field by a comfortable margin — an 87.81 TrackWiz rating that's well clear of anything else in here. Trainer Bruce Kravets sends him out with David Cora in the irons, and a 21% career win rate from the connections suggests this barn knows how to get horses to fire. At 5/2 on the morning line, this is actually reasonable value for a horse whose rating towers over the competition in a 6-furlong claiming sprint.

place1Robert's MoonML 9/5

Robert's Moon gets the call as the public's 9/5 morning-line choice, and with a 73.39 rating he's legitimately the second-best horse on paper. The 10% career win rate is modest, but Joseph Rocco Jr. is a capable rider at this level and can keep him in a good spot early through 6 furlongs of dirt. If Ellie's Boyfriend has any hiccup, Moon is your most likely alternative winner.

show5Spinning MusicianML 4/1

Spinning Musician offers the best win percentage in the field at 22% and slots in nicely as a show play at 4/1. Trainer Cody Beattie has a knack for putting horses in winnable spots, and a 66.21 rating with an average speed figure of 54 suggests he can run a competitive number. In a five-horse field, he's the natural hedge to round out your tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

6:14 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A maiden claiming route over a mile on dirt, and this field has never won a race — making the TrackWiz ratings your clearest guide through the fog of maiden uncertainty.

win2Serendipitous BidML 9/5

Serendipitous Bid tops this field with an 88.83 TrackWiz rating and is the 9/5 morning-line choice, so the public is already on board — but the numbers back it up. Trainer Erin McClellan sends out two horses in this race, which is always worth noting; when a barn doubles up, they usually have a preference, and Bid holds the rating edge over stablemate Black Jack Shellac. Jockey Inoel Beato gets the nod here, and an average speed figure of 54 over a mile-plus route on dirt is the best pace profile in the field.

place5GiglineML 4/1

Gigline at 4/1 is an interesting secondary play with a 77.59 rating — second-best in the field and a solid gap above the middle of the pack. Martin Chuan rides for trainer Ramon Davila Aguayo, and while the speed figure of 52 is modest, maiden races can produce surprising results when a horse simply runs their best race on the right day. The morning-line price makes Gigline a legitimate place contender and a useful exacta partner.

show1Black Jack ShellacML 5/2

Black Jack Shellac is the other McClellan runner in this race and checks in with a 57.50 rating and a 5/2 morning line. The stablemate dynamic is tricky — connections can't win with both horses — but David Cora is a respected rider and Shellac's connections clearly believe there's ability here. As a show play, you're essentially betting on the trainer's barn hitting the board, which is a reasonable approach in a wide-open maiden race.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

We're releasing three races free to all readers today, and there's a nice thread connecting these picks. In Race 1, Ellie's Boyfriend opens at 5/2 on the morning line and carries our highest free-race confidence score — that 87.81 TrackWiz rating puts him right at the top of the card's value range. Race 2 stretches out to a mile and 70 yards, where Serendipitous Bid comes in as the morning-line favorite at 9/5 with the top overall rating among the free picks at 88.83 — a strong number for a maiden claimer at this level. Race 3 is the wildcard: Paddy'sheartofgold opens at 4/1 with a 70.04 rating, which signals a more open, unpredictable field — exactly the kind of race where a live longshot can blow the ticket up.

The common theme across these three? They're all six furlongs or longer on dirt, which should reward horses with proven stamina and clean early positioning. With the heat baking the track surface, look for horses that broke alertly in their last couple of starts.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

6:43 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open maiden claiming sprint with seven runners and a field where nobody has broken their maiden yet — the pace scenario through 6 furlongs of dirt could shake up the order dramatically.

win5Paddy'sheartofgoldML 4/1

Paddy'sheartofgold leads all runners in this maiden field with a 70.04 TrackWiz rating, and at 4/1 on the morning line, trainer Flint Stites and jockey Maicol Inirio are positioning this one as the real deal. An average speed of 54 is the best recorded figure in the field, and in a race where several others have no published speed figure at all, that kind of consistency matters. When the top-rated horse in a maiden race is offering fair morning-line odds rather than being bet down to even money, that's a spot TrackWiz analysis highlights as a value play.

place7Aunt NanML 5/2

Aunt Nan draws in at 5/2 as one of the more interesting horses in the race — a 57.50 rating with trainer Konstantinos Harigeorgiou, who also has Eddie's Promise in the field. David Cora picks up the mount, which suggests connections are serious about this runner's chances. In a seven-horse maiden field, having a respected jockey on your horse with a legitimate shot at a placing is all you need to justify the play.

show4RosesforthequeenML 7/2

Rosesforthequeen is trained by Todd Beattie, who also saddles Explosive Run in this race — so Beattie has two shots at the board. The 55.83 rating and a 7/2 price put Rosesforthequeen as the more likely of the two Beattie runners to hit, and Vladimir Diaz takes the mount. No published speed figure makes this a projection play, but the rating edge over the bottom half of the field is real enough to include in show positions and exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

7:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

This one features a fascinating inversion — Diamond Essence holds the top TrackWiz rating but goes off at 4/1 while Sunset Express is the 9/5 public choice, creating a genuine overlay opportunity in a five-filly claiming sprint.

win4Diamond EssenceML 4/1

Diamond Essence posts the field's best rating at 85.62 and yet is priced at 4/1 on the morning line — that's the kind of gap between public opinion and analytical standing that TrackWiz is built to find. Ricardo Chiappe gets the call for trainer George Albright, and a 10% career win rate doesn't jump off the page, but this is a claiming level where consistency in speed figures (54 average) matters more than raw win percentage. If the pace of the race suits a presser or closer, Diamond Essence is positioned to pounce.

place3IracebethML 5/2

Iracebeth is legitimately live for second at 5/2 with a 79.80 rating and Yabriel Ramos aboard for trainer Elisha Perez. The 9% career win rate might look uninspiring, but this is a horse with a solid speed profile at 54 average who has been hanging around the right numbers for a claiming horse at this distance. She's a natural exacta partner underneath Diamond Essence.

show2Sunset ExpressML 9/5

Sunset Express is the 9/5 public choice, and a 75.49 rating confirms she belongs — she's just not the top of our analytical board. Joseph Rocco Jr. is one of the sharper riders on the Penn circuit, and for trainer John Salzman, this is a familiar horse in a familiar spot. If the price gets inflated on the tote, she becomes even more useful as a show play or bottom of an exacta wheel.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 5

7:41 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Desperate Dreams holds a decisive rating edge over a five-horse claiming field at 6 furlongs, but Kelly's Into Luck brings a jaw-dropping 25% career win rate that demands attention in a tight pace scenario.

win2Desperate DreamsML 3/1

Desperate Dreams checks in with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the best in this field by a meaningful margin — and gets Jomar Torres in the saddle for trainer Mark Salvaggio. The 8% career win rate is the one soft spot, but speed figures tell a more encouraging story: a 54 average is tied for best in the race, and at 3/1, the morning-line price reflects genuine respect without being bet off the board. This looks like a horse whose recent form metrics justify a win bet.

place1Black FlyML 9/5

Black Fly is the 9/5 public choice at a 76.42 rating, and trainer Brandon Kulp is a name to respect at this level — he also has Kelly's Into Luck in the race, so he's double-barreled here. Angel Rodriguez takes the mount on Black Fly, and while the 11% win rate is modest, being trained by the same barn as a 25% career-winner in the same race tells you Kulp is confident fielding multiple horses. Black Fly is the steadier figure of the two Kulp entries.

show5Kelly's Into LuckML 5/2

Kelly's Into Luck is genuinely interesting — a 25% career win rate is the best in this entire field, and at 5/2 on the morning line, bettors are paying attention. The TrackWiz rating of 62.98 trails our top two picks, but win percentage is a real-world form cycle indicator, and when a horse has won a quarter of its career starts, it knows how to get its nose down. As a show play or show part of an exacta, Kelly's Into Luck is worth including.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 6

8:10 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint at 5.5 furlongs where Bourbon Time owns a massive rating gap over the rest of the field — but goes off at 5/1, making this a rare situation where the analytical top pick is also a value play.

win1Bourbon TimeML 5/1

Bourbon Time's 84.17 TrackWiz rating is head and shoulders above everything else in this five-horse maiden field — the next-best rating (Johnny Mac at 55.83) is nearly 30 points behind. Trainer George Albright puts Yabriel Ramos in the irons, a solid rider at Penn, and while Bourbon Time has no wins yet as expected in a maiden race, the underlying metrics support a breakout performance at 5/2 in a field this weak. When your top-rated horse is also your morning-line overlay, you play it.

place5Johnny MacML 7/2

Johnny Mac at 7/2 brings the second-best rating in the field (55.83) and trainer Bruce Kravets — who also saddles Milago — fires Ricardo Chiappe aboard. Kravets is no stranger to Penn, and putting Chiappe on this runner suggests he sees a legitimate placing opportunity. In a maiden race where the top horse is a massive standout, finding a reliable place or show horse is the smart exotic play.

show2MilagoML 9/2

Milago is Kravets' other entry at 9/2 with a 54.17 rating, and David Cora picks up the mount. With no published speed figure on record, this is more of a projection play based on the trainer's confidence in entering the horse, but a 54.17 rating is respectable in this company. As a show play in exotics, Milago gives you coverage on the Kravets barn hitting the board with either of their runners.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 7

8:39 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The feature race of the card brings a ten-horse allowance field loaded with experienced runners — Clarely Tom's elite 42% career win rate and No No Joe's top TrackWiz rating set up a compelling battle, while several overlays lurk in a wide-open pace scenario.

win5No No JoeML 5/1

No No Joe tops the field with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating and brings an impressive 25% career win rate to an allowance level that demands real credentials. Trainer Cody Beattie also saddles Showtime Matinee in this race, and the fact that Leonardo Corujo — a capable Penn rider — gets the call on No No Joe suggests this is the barn's main bullet. An average speed of 56 is among the highest in the field, and at 5/1, there's genuine value attached to the top-rated horse.

place10Clarely TomML 6/1

Clarely Tom is the most intriguing horse in this race — a 42% career win rate is simply remarkable for a horse at this level, and that real-world form cycle screams that this runner knows how to finish. Wilfredo Corujo takes the mount for trainer Flint Stites, and a 79.4 rating combined with a 56 average speed makes Clarely Tom a legitimate threat to win outright, let alone hit the board. At 6/1 on the morning line, this might be the best value play on the entire card.

show7Showtime MatineeML 8/1

Showtime Matinee rounds out our top three with a 70.53 rating and a 26% career win rate — another Beattie runner, with Yabriel Ramos in the saddle. In a ten-horse allowance field, having the trainer fire two legitimate contenders (No No Joe and Showtime Matinee) gives Beattie coverage across the board, and Matinee's 55 average speed is right in the competitive range. At 8/1, the show price likely won't pay much, but Matinee is a natural piece for trifecta and exacta combinations.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Seven races, a fast Penn National dirt track baking under summer heat, and a handful of horses posting strong TrackWiz ratings — today's card has real potential for both win bettors and exotic players. Start with Ellie's Boyfriend in Race 1 and Serendipitous Bid in Race 2 as your anchors, and keep an eye on the wide-open Race 3. For the full picture — including pace projections, exotic tickets, and the allowance breakdown in Race 7 — the complete analysis is waiting for subscribers at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there.

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