Daily Picks

Penn National Picks & Predictions — July 16, 2026

Thursday, July 16, 20269 racesPenn National

It's a scorcher at Penn National today — clear skies, 90°F on the thermometer, and nine races on dirt that figures to play fast all afternoon. When the track bakes like this, speed horses love life, and pace scenarios get interesting in a hurry.

We've got a full nine-race card to dig through, ranging from a pair of Ratings Handicaps bookending the card to a mix of Claimers and Allowance company in between. Three free previews to get you started, six premium deep-dives for the serious players looking to build tickets and find edges.

Our highest-rated horse on the card is What Does It Take in Race 8 — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating in a Starter Optional Claiming mile that makes that race our marquee play of the day. But there's value scattered throughout this card, so let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:45 PM EDT

Ratings Handicap · 1 mi · Dirt

The top of the card features a clear ratings gap at the top, with two horses separating themselves from the rest of the field in a mile handicap on the Penn dirt.

win8Wink of an EyeML 4/1

Wink of an Eye comes in with the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 85.62 and a career win rate of 27% — that's the best strike rate among the eight horses entered. Trainer Elisha Perez sends her out with Angel R. Rodriguez in the irons, a confident-looking rider assignment. At 4/1 on the morning line, she offers genuine value for a horse who profiles as the class of this field over a flat mile.

place7Bugged OutML 7/2

Bugged Out isn't far behind at a TrackWiz rating of 82.94, and trainer Charles A. DeMario has him ready to fire at 7/2. His average speed figure of 53 matches the upper tier of this field, and Angel Moreno has the experience to get him into a good striking position around two turns.

show5Tortuga IslandML 5/2

Tortuga Island is the morning-line favorite at 5/2 with a solid 69.44 rating and a 26% career win rate — matching Qualified Hire for the best strike rate in the field. Jose A. Gallegos conditions this horse well at Penn, and at the short price he's a sensible inclusion in exactas and trifectas as a bridesmaid type.

Race 2

10:14 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A compact six-horse claiming sprint sets up as a two-horse battle at the top, but a sneaky mid-field contender could complicate things at the wire.

win5MygirlisabombML 3/1

Mygirlisabomb owns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 and posts the best average speed figure of the group at 55 — that's a meaningful edge in a short 5.5-furlong sprint where fractions come fast. Trainer Joey Martinez sends out Leonardo Corujo, and the horse's 9% career win rate is the only mild caution flag here, but the raw numbers suggest she's the most talented horse in this field. At 3/1, the price is fair for a horse projecting as the top figure horse.

place2LachicafortequilaML 2/1

Lachicafortequila is right on her heels with an 85.37 rating and draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 under Angel R. Rodriguez for trainer Brandon L. Kulp. Her 12% career win rate is modest, but in a short field of six, hitting the board consistently is the pattern, and she's capable of holding second if Mygirlisabomb gets loose on the lead.

show4My Boss LadyML 6/1

My Boss Lady at 6/1 is a sneaky inclusion here — her 75.10 TrackWiz rating splits the difference between the top two and the rest, and her average speed figure of 54 ties for the second-best in the field. Trainer Carl J. O'Callaghan has her live at a price, and in a six-horse sprint, a horse this capable at morning-line value deserves exotic coverage.

Race 3

10:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Bruce Kravets saddles two horses in this six-furlong claimer, and his top entrant looks like a legitimate standout — but a pair of overlooked rivals could make the exacta interesting.

win2Jace Is No JokeML 7/2

Jace Is No Joke heads the field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and a 15% career win rate under Ricardo Chiappe for trainer Bruce Kravets. His average speed figure of 54 is right in line with the top of this field, and in a claiming context, that rating gap over the bottom half of this field is significant. Kravets also has Inter Miami in the race, which gives the barn leverage — if Jace Is No Joke gets the right trip, he should be tough to beat at 7/2.

place3Mischief WarriorML 5/1

Mischief Warrior at 5/1 is a legitimate place threat with a 76.05 rating for trainer Amy Albright and jockey Yabriel O. Ramos. The 8% career win rate is low, but claiming horses at this level often find their best form hitting the board, and her speed figure of 54 puts her in the mix off the pace if the front-runners soften each other up.

show7Inter MiamiML 6/1

Inter Miami brings a 66.48 rating and an impressive 22% career win rate — the best strike rate in this field — making him a solid show ticket and exotic play. Trainer Kravets clearly knows this horse well, and jockey David Cora will likely have him positioned to pick up the pieces if the barn's top choice takes command early.

The first three races give us a nice cross-section of today's themes. Wink of an Eye opens the card in a Ratings Handicap going a flat mile — a 4/1 morning line shot with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating that we like in a distance where pace setup matters. In Race 2, Mygirlisabomb is our top-rated free pick at 87.08 over the sprint distance of 5½ furlongs — on a hot, fast track, that kind of early foot is hard to contain. Then Jace Is No Joke rounds out the free trio in Race 3 at 6 furlongs on the dirt, a solid 86.35 rating at a juicy 7/2 morning line.

The common thread across all three? This heat-baked surface is going to reward horses that can get position early without burning up. Watch the pace in these races closely — a contested early duel could flip results in a big way, and we've factored that into every rating you see.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:12 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

An allowance sprint over six furlongs at Penn National features a curious 100% career win figure at the top, but TrackWiz ratings point firmly toward a different horse as the real class standout.

win6Itty Biddy CityML 4/1

Itty Biddy City owns the highest TrackWiz rating in this allowance field at 85.62 — a meaningful advantage at this level — and ties for the best average speed figure at 55. Trainer Robert A. Wolfe, Jr. puts Yabriel O. Ramos aboard, and at 4/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value here for a horse who clearly projects as the top figure runner. Her 12% career win rate looks unassuming, but in allowance company, the raw talent often matters more than the historical percentage.

place3RemembrallML 9/2

Remembrall sits just behind at a 78.00 TrackWiz rating for trainer Elisha Perez, who also saddles Reckless Spending in this race — giving the barn two shots. Angel R. Quinones is a capable handler in these Pennsylvania spots, and Remembrall's 20% career win rate gives confidence that this horse knows how to close out a race. At 9/2, she's a natural place candidate in exacta combinations with the top pick.

show2Java TalesML 6/1

Java Tales brings a 30% career win rate — the best in the field — to a 77.78 TrackWiz rating that makes her a legitimate third-place threat for trainer Bruce Kravets with Ricardo Chiappe up. The gap between her rating and the top two is narrow enough that a pace collapse up front could put her right in the picture, and 6/1 is good show value in a six-horse field.

Race 5

11:41 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A tight allowance optional claiming sprint sees the two top-rated horses separated by less than a single point — pace scenario and positioning could be the deciding factor here.

win2OneofthegoodguysML 7/2

Oneofthegoodguys tops the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 with an 18% career win rate under Inoel Beato for trainer Cody Beattie, who has a strong book of horses on today's card. His average speed figure of 55 matches the top tier of this field, and Beattie's confidence in running him here shows — this is a horse the barn likes. At 7/2, the morning-line price is fair and potentially on the generous side if he breaks cleanly.

place6ConfiscatedML 5/2

Confiscated is barely a whisker behind at 85.74 and actually posts the best average speed figure in the race at 56 — the only horse at that number in this field. Trainer Kathleen A. Demasi sends out Andrew Wolfsont, and her 30% career win rate is the best in the field by a wide margin. At 5/2, she's a short-priced place runner, but that speed edge makes her dangerous to be against.

show3Yahoo OmarML 6/1

Yahoo Omar at 6/1 brings a 35% career win rate — easily the highest in this field — and a 73.92 TrackWiz rating that puts him solidly in the third-place conversation. Trainer Andrew Simoff conditions him well at this level, and Julio A. Hernandez is a live rider in these spots. In a pace-centric sprint, a horse this likely to fire his best shot makes solid show and trifecta sense.

Race 6

12:10 AM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

The morning-line chalk at 2/1 doesn't hold the top TrackWiz rating in this six-furlong allowance, creating a potential overlay situation at the top of the card.

win1Chain ReactionML 6/1

Chain Reaction leads the field with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win rate under Yabriel O. Ramos for trainer Cody Beattie — the same barn having a big day at Penn. His average speed figure of 55 ties for the field's best, and at 6/1 on the morning line, he's priced like an afterthought when the numbers say otherwise. This is the kind of spot where TrackWiz analysis uncovers real value — a top-rated horse available at triple the morning-line favorite's price.

place3Ridley ParkML 4/1

Ridley Park rates second in the field at 77.97 with a 18% career win rate for trainer Carlos M. Johnson, and Emilio Flores gets the mount. His average speed figure of 55 matches the top of the field, and at 4/1, he's a fair-priced place play who has the figures to run second to Chain Reaction if things set up right.

show4Face the FactsML 3/1

Face the Facts comes in as the 3/1 morning-line second choice but rates third among our top selections at 71.76. What he does bring is a 26% career win rate — second-best in this field — and trainer Jamie Ness is a respected name that knows how to place a horse. Martin Chuan gives him a competent ride, and in a scenario where the top two hook up early, a veteran like Face the Facts could sweep up third.

Race 7

12:39 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile claiming route at Penn features a top-rated horse at mid-range odds, while two nearly identical rivals could set up a contentious stretch duel for the runner-up spots.

win1Tactical HumorML 7/2

Tactical Humor sits atop this field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating — a clear advantage over his nearest competition — for trainer Allan Shuchman with David Cora in the saddle. His 12% career win rate is modest, but over a flat mile in a claiming field, raw ability often wins out, and there's no other horse in here who rates anywhere close to his figure. At 7/2, this is a horse you want on top of your tickets.

place5Dixie PreachML 5/2

Dixie Preach at 5/2 is the morning-line second choice with a 71.99 TrackWiz rating and a 6% career win rate under Wilfredo Corujo for trainer Kevin J. Fields. That win percentage is low, but place finishes at this level for a route horse are where he earns his keep — he's been close without sealing the deal, and Corujo is a sharp hand at navigating traffic over a mile.

show6Your AnalysisML 2/1

Your Analysis rates right beside Dixie Preach at 71.73 with a 16% career win rate — the better historical strike rate of the two. Julio A. Hernandez guides for trainer Demelza McMahon, and as the 2/1 morning-line favorite, the public clearly respects this horse. The tight ratings spread between these two place-show horses makes boxing them in exactas a logical move.

Race 8

1:08 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

The penultimate race on the card is a starter optional claiming mile, and one horse stands well clear of the pack on our ratings — making this look like a potential single for ticket builders.

win5What Does It TakeML 2/1

What Does It Take carries the highest TrackWiz rating in this field at an impressive 88.54 — the top mark on today's entire card — and posts a 26% career win rate under Angel R. Rodriguez for trainer Brandon L. Kulp. His average speed figure of 53 is right at the top of this field, and in a starter optional claiming context, that ratings lead is hard to dismiss. At 2/1 morning line, this is a logical single if you're building Pick 3s or Pick 4s.

place2The Best DistanceML 4/1

The Best Distance at 4/1 brings a 61.65 rating and a 21% career win rate for trainer Jose A. Gallegos — one of the better historical win percentages in this field. Samuel Marin gets the call, and over a mile, a horse with a name like that sets up well for a two-turn grind. The jump from his rating to the top pick is large, but in a thin field, he's clearly the second-best option.

show3We ReadyML 3/1

We Ready at 3/1 rates a step behind at 58.91 but matches The Best Distance with a 9% career win rate and a slightly better average speed figure of 53. Trainer Bernard G. Dunham sends out Andrew Wolfsont, and in a six-horse field, a horse this capable at the morning-line second choice price gives solid trifecta coverage without needing to beat the top pick.

Race 9

1:37 AM EDT

Ratings Handicap · 1 mi · Dirt

The closer on Penn's Thursday night card is a ratings handicap mile that features a wide-open pricing structure — three horses priced at 6/1 land in our top three, which screams value in the exotics.

win5MakabimML 6/1

Makabim leads our selections with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win rate under Inoel Beato for Cody Beattie — the trainer had multiple live horses all night and ends the card with a strong contender. At 6/1 morning line, that rating puts him in a clear top position, and Beattie's familiarity with the horse (also running Spinning Musician in this race) gives the barn excellent tactical options going a flat mile. This is a horse worth anchoring at the top of your trifecta.

place1Hay ChiefML 6/1

Hay Chief is right behind at 81.40 for trainer Brandon L. Kulp — also running Arrow Speed in this race — with Yabriel O. Ramos in the irons. His 14% career win rate matches Makabim exactly, and the two horses rate almost identically, which means the order of finish between them could come down to pace scenario and trip luck. At 6/1, he's an outstanding place value.

show8Arrow SpeedML 6/1

Arrow Speed gives Kulp a two-horse shot here with a 75.53 rating and a 17% career win rate under Angel R. Rodriguez — the better historical strike rate among the barn's two entrants. His average speed figure of 52 matches the field's median, and in a wide-open ratings handicap mile where the pace could set up for closers, Arrow Speed at 6/1 makes perfect sense as your show component in trifecta combinations.

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Bottom line: Penn National is serving up a full nine-race diet of fast dirt today, and our card is loaded with playable prices. Start with Wink of an Eye, Mygirlisabomb, and Jace Is No Joke in the free races, and let What Does It Take anchor your premium ticket in Race 8. Full pace maps, exotic breakdowns, and every angle on the remaining six races are waiting for subscribers — grab them at TrackWiz Premium before post time. Good luck out there.

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