Daily Picks

Penn National Picks & Predictions — July 9, 2026

Thursday, July 9, 20267 racesPenn National

Penn National rolls out a seven-race Thursday card under partly cloudy skies with temperatures sitting right at 80°F — comfortable conditions for both the horses and the handicappers. The turf course is the headliner today, drawing three of the first three races onto the grass, which sets an interesting tone right out of the gate.

We've got a mix of claiming and maiden claiming action to open things up, then the card shifts to dirt for the back half with a pair of Starter Optional Claiming sprints adding some competitive bite. Seven races, plenty of angles to work — let's get into it.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:45 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open 11-horse turf sprint where the top two by TrackWiz rating are separated by just 7 points, setting up a competitive pace scenario and plenty of exotic opportunities.

win5Gins and TinsML 5/2

Gins and Tins draws our top rating (86.14) in this field and posts the highest average speed figure at 57 — tied with a couple others but backed by a morning line of 5/2 that confirms the public's respect. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp puts Angel R. Rodriguez up in the irons, a pairing worth noting on the short Penn National turf. At 5 furlongs on grass, a horse that can get out clean and apply early pressure is dangerous, and Gins and Tins profiles as exactly that kind of runner.

place4Heavy TimberML 8/1

Heavy Timber (rating 79.79) is a genuine value piece here at 8/1 on the morning line — that's a price worth grabbing on a horse that grades out as the second-best in the field by our numbers. Trainer Richard Vega sends out Jomar Torres, a reliable combination at this meet, and a 55 average speed figure is competitive for 5-furlong turf. The 10% career win rate keeps expectations measured, but in a race this deep, hitting the board at 8/1 is the play.

show8Boss Is a PalML 7/2

Boss Is a Pal rounds out our top three at a TrackWiz rating of 79.11, right on Heavy Timber's heels, and comes in at 7/2 morning line with Vladimir Diaz aboard for trainer Suzanne Stettinius. A 19% career win rate is solid in this field — that's not a horse that just shows up, it's a horse that competes. With a 57 average speed figure matching the field's best, Boss Is a Pal should be in the mix at the wire and is a strong exotic anchor.

Race 2

10:14 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Turf

A route turf claiming affair at a mile and 70 yards where TrackWiz analysis identifies a potential overlay at the top — the morning-line favorite is NOT the horse our numbers like best.

win1Whiskey AlleyML 8/1

Whiskey Alley tops our TrackWiz ratings at 79.79 despite going off at 8/1 on the morning line — that's a meaningful disconnect worth paying attention to. Trainer Paulina Sinnefia and jockey David Cora team up here, and Cora has been active at this meet. A 20% career win rate is the best in the field and speaks to a horse that knows how to finish, which matters enormously around two turns on turf. At 8/1, this is a genuine value play for both the win and as a key in exactas.

place2RoxtonML 7/2

Roxton (rating 78.43) is nearly as strong as our top pick by the numbers and comes in as the 7/2 morning-line second choice, so the market agrees this one belongs. Trainer Richard Vega again fields Jomar Torres — the same combo we flagged in Race 1 — and consistency matters over a mile-plus on turf. The 11% career win rate is modest but the rating suggests better recent form, making Roxton a comfortable place anchor.

show4I'm DueML 5/2

I'm Due grades third in our model at 73.82 and is the morning-line favorite at 5/2, which tells you the public is higher on this one than our numbers. Jockey Cipriano Gil is live for trainer Jose A. Gallegos, and a route on turf suits a closer profile. Even if the win odds get too short to play straight, I'm Due is a must-use in trifecta tickets given the consistent rating and market support.

Race 3

10:43 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Twelve maiden claimers going a mile on turf — none have won before, but the TrackWiz ratings span 70 points, which means this field is far from equal despite the shared maiden status.

win3Hop to ItML 5/2

Hop to It is our strongest-rated horse in the race at 87.81, posting the top figure in a 12-horse field and drawing a 5/2 morning line that reflects legitimate public confidence. Trainer Tim Woolley sends out David Cora, who is aboard a few horses on this card and clearly a go-to rider at Penn National right now. In maiden turf routes, pace can be forgiving for horses with natural ability, and Hop to It's rating edge here is significant — nearly 10 points clear of the second choice.

place9AdamiscashinginML 7/2

Adamiscashingin (rating 78.17) is the third-best figure in the race and goes at 7/2 with Inoel Beato up for trainer Erin Carpio. That's a solid price on a horse our model respects — particularly in a wide-open maiden field where things can get messy early. An average speed figure of 54 is right there with the top competitors, and at that morning line there's genuine place value.

show11Endless GlowML 5/2

Endless Glow rates at 76.56 — third in the field — and is co-favored at 5/2 alongside Hop to It, which means you're getting show insurance on a well-regarded runner. Angel R. Rodriguez gets the mount for trainer Brandon L. Kulp, the same Kulp-Rodriguez combination from Race 1. In a long maiden turf route, Endless Glow has the profile to be running late when others are tiring, making it a smart wheel in exactas and trifectas.

Three races are free for all TrackWiz readers today, and all three land on the turf. That's not a coincidence worth ignoring. When the early card is this grass-heavy, surface form and turf breeding become the great equalizers — horses with legitimate green-course credentials can beat horses that look dominant on paper. Keep that in mind as you dig in.

Leading the free card is Hop to It in Race 3, who posted our highest free-race rating at 87.81 going a flat mile on the turf in maiden claiming company. Right behind is Gins and Tins in the opener — a 5-furlong grass sprint where a good gate break often tells the whole story. And in Race 2, longshot hunters should take a serious look at Whiskey Alley at 8/1 on the morning line. Our model likes that price against this field.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Six-horse dirt sprint where one horse stands alone on our ratings — this is as close to a class standout as you'll see in a claiming field at Penn National.

win5Gentle BreezeML 2/1

Gentle Breeze is the most dominant top pick on the entire card, posting an 88.54 TrackWiz rating that is more than 26 points clear of the second-best horse in the field. A 19% career win rate is strong in a claiming sprint, and a 56 average speed figure tops the field as well. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets sends out Yabriel O. Ramos, and at 2/1 morning line this looks like a deserved favorite — though the thin exacta margin might push serious players toward keying Gentle Breeze on top at a modest price.

place2My Detroit CityML 3/1

My Detroit City (rating 62.23) is the clear second choice at 3/1 and rates as the second-best horse by our model — the market and the numbers are aligned here. A 15% career win rate on a 55 average speed figure suggests a horse that can compete at this level without embarrassing itself. Wilfredo Corujo rides for trainer T. Bernard Houghton, and if anything beats Gentle Breeze, My Detroit City is the most likely culprit.

show4EddiemushML 7/2

Eddiemush slots in third in our ratings at 61.07 — essentially tied with My Detroit City — and goes at 7/2 with Manuel Aguilar aboard for trainer Jose F. Bobadilla. The 6% career win rate is a concern, but that low figure often indicates a horse that competes consistently without winning, which is exactly what you want from a show horse in a short field. Trifecta players should use Eddiemush freely underneath Gentle Breeze.

Race 5

11:41 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Starter optional claiming at 6 furlongs on dirt — the pace scenario here is intriguing with multiple speed types entered, which could set things up nicely for a horse that can stalk and pounce.

win8Leonidas StandML 9/2

Leonidas Stand tops our TrackWiz ratings at 84.9 and draws a 9/2 morning line that feels generous given the rating advantage — that's where the value lives in this race. Angel R. Rodriguez rides for trainer Brandon L. Kulp, a combo that keeps showing up on this card for good reason. A 14% career win rate is modest but this horse's figure is head-and-shoulders above most of the field, and in a pace-influenced sprint, a stalker with strong ratings should be well positioned in the stretch.

place5RarML 6/1

Rar rates at 74.86 — comfortably second in the field — and goes off at 6/1 with Jomar Torres up for trainer Elisha Perez. That morning line represents real value for a horse our model grades this highly. With a 10% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure, Rar isn't flashy, but in a starter optional claiming event, consistency and fitness often matter more than raw talent, and this one fits the profile.

show3NeverworkedadayML 5/1

Neverworkedaday (rating 61.05) rounds out the top three at 5/1 on the morning line, with Inoel Beato riding for Erin C. McClellan. The 12% career win rate is workmanlike and the 53 average speed figure keeps this one competitive without standing out. What we like here is the price — 5/1 for the third-best-rated horse in the field is solid show-ticket value, and Neverworkedaday should be a fixture deep in your trifecta combinations.

Race 6

12:10 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Five-horse starter optional claiming sprint at 6 furlongs — small fields can be tricky for pace reads, but when one horse owns a monster rating advantage and a 40% career win rate, the analysis gets a lot simpler.

win1Benny's Candy ManML 9/5

Benny's Candy Man is a standout on paper and in the numbers — an 88.83 TrackWiz rating combined with a 40% career win rate is a combination you rarely see in a Penn National overnight race. Trainer Elisha Perez has this horse dialed in, and Julio A. Hernandez gets the call. At 9/5 on the morning line, the odds aren't generous, but a horse that wins 40% of the time is a horse that demands respect — the question isn't whether to bet, it's how to structure the exotics around it.

place4Sams After PartyML 5/1

Sams After Party (rating 68.01) is the second-best horse in the field by a comfortable margin and goes at 5/1, which is a fair price for a place ticket. Trainer Hugo O. Padilla puts Eliseo Ruiz in the saddle, and an 8% career win rate understates this horse's competitiveness at the level. In a five-horse field where Benny's Candy Man likely controls things, Sams After Party has the rating to earn a check.

show3Bermuda TriangleML 5/2

Bermuda Triangle slots in third at a 63.58 rating and is the morning-line second choice at 5/2, meaning the market is slightly higher on this one than our model is. Trainer Timothy C. Kreiser runs Edwin Gonzalez, and a 12% career win rate in what is essentially a short-field claiming sprint gives Bermuda Triangle a fighting chance to hit the board. Use it in trifectas — with a favorite this short, the payouts will come from the second and third slots.

Race 7

12:39 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Six-horse dirt sprint where the morning-line favorite doesn't match the top TrackWiz rating — an overlay situation that sharpens the handicapping picture considerably.

win4The Judge and JuryML 9/2

The Judge and Jury posts an 84.9 TrackWiz rating — highest in the field — yet goes off at 9/2, while Amusing Mischief is installed as the 9/5 favorite. That's the kind of rating-vs-odds discrepancy that gets our attention. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets sends out Yabriel O. Ramos, who is having a busy card today and clearly a player at this meet. A 21% career win rate and 54 average speed figure are both competitive, and at 9/2 there's genuine win value here if the market hasn't corrected by post time.

place1Amusing MischiefML 9/5

Amusing Mischief (rating 79.83) is the morning-line favorite at 9/5 and rates second in our model — so the public's confidence isn't entirely misplaced. A 26% career win rate is the best in the field and speaks to a horse that knows how to compete in tight spots. Kevin Gomez rides for trainer Karin Wagner, and even as a place pick behind our top-rated selection, Amusing Mischief's win percentage makes it a very live horse to finish on top.

show5Kaz CreedML 6/1

Kaz Creed comes in at 79.44 — just 0.39 points behind Amusing Mischief — and represents solid show value at 6/1. A 25% career win rate is nearly as impressive as the morning-line favorite's, and Angel R. Rodriguez takes the mount for trainer Brandon L. Kulp (again showing up on this card). With three closely-rated horses separated by just 5 points at the top, exotics using all three could pay nicely — and Kaz Creed at 6/1 is the value piece of the puzzle.

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Bottom line: this is a turf-forward Thursday card with a solid longshot angle in Race 2 and a standout maiden in Race 3 to anchor the free side. If you're playing the full card — and with this pace variety on the dirt, you should be — the premium analysis gives you everything you need to build smart tickets from Race 4 through the closer. Unlock the full card here and let's make Thursday count.

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