Daily Picks

Penn National Picks & Predictions — July 22, 2026

Wednesday, July 22, 20267 racesPenn National

Penn National is open for business on a gorgeous Wednesday afternoon — clear skies, 77°F, and a fast-playing dirt surface that should reward pace-pressers and closers alike depending on how the speed shakes out early. Seven races are on the board today, mixing dirt sprints, route distances, and a pair of turf affairs that add a nice wrinkle to the card.

The mix of conditions is what makes today interesting. You've got maiden claimers, starter optional claiming races, and a Maiden Special Weight sprinkled in — plenty of spots where sharp handicapping can find an edge against the public. Whether you're building a Pick 4 ticket or hunting a single-race value play, this card has options at multiple price points.

TrackWiz has ratings and analysis locked in for all seven races. Three races are on us — free for every reader — with the full card available to subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

9:45 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The top of the TrackWiz ratings board is spread across three horses separated by nearly 10 points, making this Starter Optional Claiming mile a cleaner-than-it-looks three-horse affair with some genuine overlay potential.

win2Marcan LoveML 6/1

Marcan Love tops the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 and comes in with an 18% career win rate — solid for this level — while posting an average speed figure of 52 that's right in the pack for this field. The 6/1 morning line is where the value lives: our ratings have him as the clear top horse yet the market hasn't made him the favorite. Trainer Troy Robb and jockey Angel Cruz form a booking worth noting, and at a mile and 70 yards, there's plenty of ground for a pressing-style runner to show his class down the lane.

place8ShallusML 4/1

Shallus rates second in the field at 77.89 but carries only a 6% career win rate, which explains the 4/1 morning line and hints at a horse who consistently hits the board without sealing the deal. Trainer Scott A. Lake is a well-known Penn National presence, and that barn often has horses firing at this level even when they don't break their maiden. At 4/1 for place, this profile screams exacta wheel material — use him underneath Marcan Love.

show3Wish CarefullyML 5/2

Wish Carefully checks in third on our ratings at 73.38 and shows a slightly higher average speed figure of 53 compared to the top two, which is worth keeping in mind if the pace heats up and raw speed becomes the separator late. The 5/2 morning line makes her the public's second choice, and trainer Ernesto Padilla-Preciado also saddles Mission Artemis, so this barn clearly has a presence in the race. She's the right call to round out a show bet or trifecta key.

Race 2

10:14 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A full field of twelve takes to the turf at 1 1/16 miles in this Claiming event, and the TrackWiz model has found a clear standout — but with double-digit-odds contenders lurking, there's real trifecta value if the favorite group gets tangled in traffic.

win12RuseML 5/1

Ruse earns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.17 and matches Zapata for the highest average speed figure at 54, a combination that suggests he can both stalk pace and sustain a run on the lawn. Paco Lopez is one of the sharper jockey bookings you'll see at Penn National and his presence on the 5/1 morning-line horse is a notable upgrade. A 14% career win rate may look modest, but on turf at this class level that profile produces consistent performances — expect him to be the one to beat.

place10Mucho MojoML 7/2

Mucho Mojo rates second at 75.34 with a 7/2 morning line, though his 8% career win rate and average speed figure of 51 suggest a closer who gets the job done on points without wowing anyone. The value case here is straightforward: trainer Brandon L. Kulp tends to target soft spots, and in a 12-horse turf field where pace can get complicated, a horse with a high rating who sits back and waits is exactly the type you want in your exacta.

show3TallahatchiebridgeML 10/1

Tallahatchiebridge at 10/1 is a genuine overlay for show and trifecta purposes, rating third in the field at 71.61 despite a morning line that says the public isn't interested. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets also enters Chuck Adams in this race, and when a barn doubles up, they typically know which one fires — Tallahatchiebridge's higher rating makes him the preferred Kravets runner. At 10/1, he's a trifecta box anchor that pays handsomely if he hits the board.

Race 3

10:43 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Wide-open maiden turf mile where no one in the field has crossed the wire first — that means we're handicapping potential, not proven results, and the TrackWiz model's top three are bunched closely enough to make exacta boxes extremely appealing.

win11Hotter Than DemML 5/2

Hotter Than Dem is the class of this maiden field on our ratings at 87.81 — a significant gap over the second choice Snowstorm at 80.32 — and Paco Lopez, already noted as one of the meet's better turf pilots, gets the mount at a very workable 5/2. It's a maiden race on turf, so no horse has won, but the combination of a field-topping rating and a quality jockey booking makes this the most reliable foundation for any exotic ticket. Trainer Michael V. Simone has a clear intent here.

place3SnowstormML 5/2

Snowstorm rates 80.32 and posts an average speed figure of 53, matching Modranach and On Secret Service at that number, but the overall profile puts her clearly in the second tier of contenders. David Cora rides for trainer Ronald W. Rogers, and the 5/2 morning line means she's co-favorited with Hotter Than Dem — that's a fair price for a horse rated this highly in a maiden field. She makes sense in a straight exacta or as the base of a trifecta.

show6ModranachML 7/2

Modranach comes in at 74.01 on the TrackWiz scale and draws the 7/2 morning line, putting him third in the public's estimation but well-supported in our ratings as well. Trainer Demelza McMahon and jockey Julio A. Hernandez are a live combination, and his average speed figure of 53 matches the second choice. In a 12-horse maiden turf field, show spots can go to any of several horses, and Modranach's consistent profile makes him a safe trifecta inclusion.

Our three free races today span both surfaces and give you a solid foundation for the day. We're rolling with Marcan Love (R1, 6/1 morning line) to kick things off in the Starter Optional Claiming route on dirt, followed by Ruse (R2, 5/1) switching gears to the turf for a 1 1/16-mile Claiming test. We close out the free trio with Hotter Than Dem (R3, 5/2) in the Maiden Claiming mile on turf — our highest-rated free pick at 87.81.

The turf has been a key angle to watch at Penn on clear-day cards like this one, and we like how Races 2 and 3 set up for horses who can relax early and finish. On the dirt, keep an eye on pace dynamics — a one-turn mile like Race 1 can get loose on the front end, which is exactly the kind of scenario that makes a stalker like Marcan Love a live price at 6/1.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

11:12 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A short five-horse Starter Optional Claiming sprint sets up as a battle between the top-rated runner and a morning-line favorite whose market price doesn't match where our model has her — value could be hiding in plain sight here.

win3Gwen to WinML 7/2

Gwen to Win tops the TrackWiz ratings at an impressive 86.35 — the highest number in this race by more than 22 points over the nearest competitor — yet she's listed at 7/2 on the morning line while Decree and Declare opens as the 9/5 favorite. That kind of disconnect between market price and our ratings is exactly the spot TrackWiz was built to find. Trainer Wayne Potts also saddles Charming Jennie, and when a trainer doubles up, the barn's horses tend to sharpen each other; the fact that Ramos gets the call on the higher-rated runner says plenty. An average speed figure of 54 is competitive for six furlongs on the Penn dirt.

place1DivulgeML 5/2

Divulge rates 63.58 with a 14% career win rate and an average speed figure of 55 — the highest in the field alongside Decree and Declare — and Jean Gregor Briceno rides for trainer Brandon McFarlane in what looks like a confident spot. At 5/2, the price is fair for a place bet, and with only five horses in the field, the board is much simpler: if Gwen to Win wins, the most likely company she keeps is Divulge. A two-horse exacta here is sensible.

show2Decree and DeclareML 9/5

Decree and Declare opens as the 9/5 morning-line favorite despite rating third in the field at 62.29 — she's the public's choice, not the model's. That said, a 12% career win rate, an average speed figure of 55, and the likely stalking trip from post two all make her a reasonable show anchor. Martin Chuan rides for Timothy C. Kreiser, and even if she gets beaten by the top two, five-horse fields rarely produce upsets deep in the order.

Race 5

11:41 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A maiden dirt route at a mile and 70 yards features a small six-horse field where two horses stand well above the rest on the TrackWiz model — but at least one morning-line favorite has no speed figure on record, adding an extra layer of intrigue.

win4RagatonyML 7/2

Ragatony tops the field at 86.35 and opens at a fair 7/2, which gives him the highest rating AND a price that beats the 2/1 board favorite — that's the kind of edge you look for. Trainer Juan Carlos Guerrero sends him out with Ruben Silvera up, and an average speed figure of 53 gives him proven form on which to build. In a maiden race, when one horse rates this clearly at the top and isn't the public's pick, the smart money leans toward the model.

place5Standard DeductionML 2/1

Standard Deduction is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with a rating of 82.08, but it's worth noting that his average speed figure of 54 is actually the highest in the field — so there's a real form argument that he belongs even if Ragatony edges him. Trainer Phillip Capuano and jockey Jeiron Barbosa form a sharp booking at the 2/1 price. He's the most logical place horse in this race and anchors any exacta you construct around Ragatony.

show3TimsML 9/2

Tims rates third in the field at 75.18 and carries a 9/2 morning line — a slight overlay given the model says he's meaningfully better than the bottom half of the field. Trainer Hugo O. Padilla gets Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. aboard, and an average speed figure of 54 (matching Standard Deduction) suggests he's capable of sustaining pace at this distance. As a show bet or trifecta anchor in a small field, Tims provides solid coverage at a fair price.

Race 6

12:10 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A tight five-horse Starter Optional Claiming mile where the top TrackWiz rating belongs to the longest price on the board — Song to Remember at 5/1 stands out as a potential overlay against a morning-line favorite who rates notably lower.

win5Song to RememberML 5/1

Song to Remember headlines our analysis with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating — the highest in the field by nearly 10 points over the second choice — yet she opens at 5/1 while Blame the Banker is the 2/1 favorite. That's a significant value gap, and it's the type of market inefficiency TrackWiz is designed to surface. David Cora has been a steady presence on this circuit for trainer Bruce M. Kravets, and a 16% career win rate combined with an average speed figure of 55 tells you this is a capable mare in good form. At a mile on dirt, she gets the distance she wants.

place2Blame the BankerML 2/1

Blame the Banker is the morning-line choice at 2/1 and rates 74.53, but what makes him compelling as a place horse is that 11% career win rate combined with an average speed figure of 55 — tied for the highest in the race. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp places horses well at Penn, and Angel R. Rodriguez is an aggressive front-end rider who won't be caught flat. Even if Song to Remember gets the better of him in the stretch, Blame the Banker is the type who fights for the board.

show4Krissi NML 5/2

Krissi N rates 64.46 and opens at 5/2, third on the morning line in a five-horse field. She carries an 11% career win rate and an average speed figure of 53 for trainer Carlos A. Mancilla, with Angel Cruz up — a combination that suggests steady effort without blowout potential. In a short five-horse field, show spots are relatively protected, and her profile makes her the safest trifecta anchor in the race.

Race 7

12:39 AM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

Six maiden fillies sprint 5½ furlongs on the Penn dirt, and one of them stands so far above the rest on our ratings that it's almost surprising she's even 2/1 — though value in the exacta comes from a couple of lightly-raced hidden contenders.

win6Marlas DreamML 2/1

Marlas Dream owns the highest TrackWiz rating in tonight's entire card at 88.54, and she's the morning-line favorite at 2/1 in this maiden sprint — so the market actually agrees with us here. Jomar Torres rides for trainer Mark V. Salvaggio, and while her average speed figure of 53 doesn't blow the doors off, the gap between her rating and the field is the real story: she's 26 points clear of the third-rated horse. In a short sprint where the leader often wires the field, there's no reason to overcomplicate this one.

place4Pom PomML 5/1

Pom Pom rates 62.05 — second in the field — at a generous 5/1 morning line, and that gap in market price versus our ratings makes her the primary value play in the race. Trainer Miguel A. Rodriguez sends her out with Anthony Salgado, and though her average speed figure of 51 is on the modest side, speed figures in maiden sprints can swing dramatically as these young horses develop. At 5/1 to place against a heavy favorite, she's exactly the type of exacta partner that boosts your bottom line when the chalk wins.

show1Witty GirlML 4/1

Witty Girl holds a TrackWiz rating of 55 and has no average speed figure on record, which in maiden races can mean either a late-developing type or an unraced horse with upside the past performances can't fully capture. Trainer Joey Martinez puts Leonardo Corujo on board at 4/1 — a morning line that hints at stable confidence. In a six-horse maiden sprint, show positions can fall to horses with early foot or hidden form, and the 4/1 price on a no-speed-figure runner is worth a trifecta flier.

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Bottom line: Penn National on July 22 has a well-rounded card with legitimate angles on both surfaces. Our top free plays — Marcan Love, Ruse, and Hotter Than Dem — give every reader a starting point, and Marlas Dream headlines the premium side as the day's most compelling profile. Unlock the full card breakdown, pace projections, and exotic ticket strategies by subscribing at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there — let's have a day.

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