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Penn National Picks & Predictions — July 3, 2026

July 3, 20267 racesAll Penn National picks

This card ran on July 3, 2026.

Best bets at Penn National, July 3, 2026

Race 13Music ClarifcationML 7/25:00 PM EDT

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Last 30 days at Penn National: our top pick won 10 of 33 races (30%) and finished in the money in 20.

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Happy Fourth of July eve, Penn National fans. Seven races are on the board today at Grantville, and the weather is not messing around — we're sitting at a blistering 98°F under clear skies. When it gets this hot, pay close attention to how horses have handled heat and travel stress in their recent past. Fitness and freshness matter even more than usual on a day like today.

The card opens with a turf-heavy trifecta — Races 1 through 3 are all run on the grass, covering everything from a quick 5-furlong sprint to a route at 1 mile 70 yards. Then we shift to the dirt for Races 4 through 7, where the allowance, maiden claiming, and handicap company sort themselves out. Plenty of angles to attack across both surfaces.

TrackWiz has full ratings on all seven runners, and the numbers tell an interesting story today — the highest-rated top pick on the card actually comes from the maiden claiming ranks, which tells you something about the overall depth of this field. Let's break it all down.

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Race 1

5:00 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A five-furlong turf sprint where the TrackWiz ratings reveal a clear one-two punch at the top, but the morning line favorite isn't the horse our model likes most — expect some betting interest to shift before post.

win3Music ClarifcationML 7/2

Music Clarification tops our ratings at 86.35 in a field where the next closest is Sandy Girl at 83.39 — a meaningful edge in a seven-horse field. Trainer Kathleen Demasi also saddles the #1, giving her two shots in this race, and jockey Jomar Torres is a strong booking. With a 9% career win rate that's respectable for this level and an average speed figure of 55, the form base is solid enough to trust at 7/2 on the morning line.

place2Sandy GirlML 5/1

Sandy Girl draws the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 83.39 and goes postward at a fair 5/1 on the morning line, meaning there's real value if she hits the board. Her 3% career win rate looks soft on the surface, but place-and-show finishers at a class like this often carry a different profile — she's a horse who runs hard and collects checks. Trainer Trevor Gallimore and jockey Kleiner Mejias form a pairing worth watching.

show4BallykeefeML 5/2

Ballykeefe comes in at a 72.30 TrackWiz rating and owns the field's best career win percentage at 12% — that's a horse who knows how to finish. The 5/2 morning line suggests the public sees her as a contender, and in a race where the top two rated horses could burn each other up on the front end, a closer profile like Ballykeefe under Taylor Kingsley makes plenty of sense as a show hedge or exotic anchor.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

5:37 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A dead-heat at the top of our ratings creates a fascinating puzzle in this mile turf starter optional claimer — two horses share an 85.62 score and are separated only by jockey, trainer, and pace style.

win1Lewis the RobberML 4/1

Lewis the Robber shares the field's top TrackWiz rating at 85.62 and brings a remarkable 50% career win rate to the table — this horse simply gets the job done when he fires. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value for a horse rated this highly, and trainer Erin McClellan has him pointed here with jockey Gavin Ashton up. In a one-mile turf test where settling is rewarded, Lewis the Robber's profile fits the conditions well.

place5Mister WoodfordML 4/1

Mister Woodford also carries an 85.62 TrackWiz rating, making this a legitimate co-top pick scenario, and his 14% career win rate shows he's been competitive consistently. Trainer Erin Carpio and jockey Wilfredo Corujo are a solid team, and at 4/1 he's priced identically to our win pick — meaning the exacta combining these two could offer real upside if they run one-two in either order.

show7Keeping the FaithML 8/1

Keeping the Faith comes in as the value inclusion at 8/1 on the morning line with a TrackWiz rating of 56.91 and a 10% career win rate that's respectable at this level. Trainer Jacinto Solis also has Sunny Magic in the race, which can sometimes signal a barn with live runners. If the pace gets contentious up front between the two top-rated horses, a closer like Keeping the Faith under Abner Adorno could pick up the pieces for third.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

The first three races are unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, and the turf tilt is real — all three go on the grass. Our top pick in Race 3, Hope's Alive (morning line 5/2, TrackWiz rating 87.81), earns the highest score among the free races and looks like the most straightforward play of the opening trio. At a mile and 70 yards over turf in claiming company, class and stamina are going to separate the field, and our analysis has Hope's Alive checking both boxes.

Race 1 gives us Music Clarification at 7/2 over five furlongs of turf — a short, sharp sprint where early pace and gate speed are everything. And in Race 2, Lewis the Robber (4/1) stretches out to a mile on the grass in starter optional claiming company, a condition that often attracts lightly raced horses with upside. Three turf races, three distinct distance scenarios — there's something for every kind of handicapper in this free portion of the card.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

6:14 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Turf

The largest field on the card — twelve runners going a mile and 70 yards on turf — and a race where class, pace scenario, and rating separation make for a surprisingly clear top of the form.

win7Hope's AliveML 5/2

Hope's Alive leads all runners with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and backs that up with an eye-catching 31% career win rate — one of the strongest win percentages in any race today. Trainer Timothy Kreiser also saddles Gangly in this spot, giving the barn a dual threat, and jockey Angel Cruz is a capable pilot for a turf route. At 5/2, Hope's Alive is our most confident pick of the turf trilogy to open the card.

place2SobieskiML 7/2

Sobieski rates second in the field at 82.78 with a 14% career win rate, and trainer Erin Carpio has shown an ability to get horses ready for routes on this surface. Jockey Angel Quinones gets the call, and at 7/2 on the morning line there's reasonable value in landing this horse underneath in exactas and trifectas. In a 12-horse field, having a high-rated second option is crucial for multi-leg wagers.

show11GanglyML 3/1

Gangly is listed at 3/1 on the morning line — the second-shortest price in the field — and his 23% career win rate is the best of any horse in the race outside of Hope's Alive's 31%. A 77.20 TrackWiz rating puts him firmly in the mix, and trainer Timothy Kreiser placing two runners here suggests confidence in the stable's readiness. He's a logical show selection and a key piece of any trifecta construction.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 4

6:51 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Dirt

This one-mile dirt allowance has a clear class standout at the top, but the second and third choices are closely bunched and could make the top spot interesting if the pace unfolds in their favor.

win4Mitole's GirlML 2/1

Mitole's Girl posts the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 88.54 and is the morning line favorite at 2/1 — the model and the oddsmaker agree. Her 15% career win rate is solid for an allowance field, and trainer Panagiotis Synnefias is an active presence on this card. Jockey Julio Hernandez gets the mount, and with an average speed figure of 52 matching the competitive cluster in this field, she brings no weaknesses to the table.

place6Western WomanML 4/1

Western Woman is the value play underneath at 4/1 with a 77.57 TrackWiz rating and an impressive 20% career win rate — that strike rate suggests a horse who fires regularly at this level. Trainer Steven Krebs has her set up well, and jockey Angel Rodriguez knows how to position a horse on the dirt. If Mitole's Girl is sent off even money at the windows, Western Woman at 4/1 becomes an attractive place-bet investment.

show5Didn't It RainML 7/2

Didn't It Rain checks in at 76.95 on the TrackWiz scale with a matching 20% career win rate to Western Woman, and her average speed of 54 is actually the best in the field — a subtle but important detail. Trainer Timothy Kreiser is having a productive night on this card, and jockey Angel Cruz brings continuity to the partnership. At 7/2, she's a legitimate contender who rounds out the show ticket nicely.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 5

7:28 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

An all-maiden claiming sprint on the dirt where every horse is still chasing that first career win — but the ratings gap between the top and the rest of the field is the widest we've seen all night.

win1Walkers BeachML 8/5

Walkers Beach is the most dominant favorite on the card by rating, sitting at 89.12 — more than 22 points clear of the next closest runner, Chilling Zensation at 66.34. Trainer T. Bernard Houghton also saddles Ringing Fire, but Walkers Beach at 8/5 on the morning line is the clear barn first-string, and David Cora is a savvy rider who won't leave anything in the paddock. In a field of first-time winners, that kind of rating edge commands respect.

place3Chilling ZensationML 5/1

Chilling Zensation rates third in our model but offers the best legitimate value in the race at 5/1 on the morning line. Her 66.34 TrackWiz score clears the bottom half of the field comfortably, and trainer Kathleen Demasi — who also has runners in Race 1 — clearly has horses fit and ready today. Jockey Jomar Torres is picking up the mount, suggesting connections like what they see on the workout tab.

show4PaintmymasterpeaceML 5/1

Paintmymasterpeace slots in at 56.57 on our ratings at 5/1 on the morning line, giving her identical odds to the place pick but a different profile worth noting. Jose Batista rides for trainer Kieron Magee, and the 53 average speed figure is a tick above Chilling Zensation's 52 — in a maiden sprint, raw speed matters. As a show play in a five-horse field, she's a reasonable inclusion to help lock up the exacta from the bottom.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 6

8:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A dirt route claiming race where one horse stands head and shoulders above the field on our ratings, but trainer Brandon Kulp has two runners in the mix — and that stable split always adds intrigue.

win4Gun RightML 5/2

Gun Right leads the field with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating, the top mark in a competitive seven-horse field, and carries a 14% career win rate into a spot where he's clearly the class of the claiming division. Trainer Brandon Kulp — who also has Porch Swing in this race — has Gun Right at 5/2 on the morning line, suggesting first-string intent with jockey Angel Rodriguez doing the steering. The gap between Gun Right's 87.81 and the next horse (Porch Swing at 76.03) is substantial at this level.

place7Porch SwingML 7/2

Porch Swing is the second Kulp runner and shows up with a 76.03 TrackWiz rating and a stellar 25% career win rate — the highest in the field. That win percentage tells you this horse competes hard and hits the board often, and jockey Jomar Torres is an upgrade in the irons. At 7/2 on the morning line, the barn confidence in both horses gives Porch Swing a real shot to land underneath her stablemate.

show3MakabimML 6/1

Makabim comes in at 62.05 on the TrackWiz scale with a 14% career win rate that matches Gun Right's mark — not a coincidence in terms of competitive credentials. Trainer Cody Beattie gives Inoel Beato the mount, and at 6/1, there's underlying value in a horse who can quietly sneak into the exacta or trifecta if the pace tests the top two. A solid show ticket anchor at a digestible price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

8:42 PM EDT

Ratings Handicap · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

The card closes with a tightly contested ratings handicap on the dirt where four horses are clustered within four points of each other — this race could genuinely be won by any of the top three.

win2Dynamite KarmaML 5/1

Dynamite Karma earns the top TrackWiz rating in the race at 84.17 and backs it up with a strong 29% career win rate — he wins nearly a third of his starts, which is elite for a ratings handicap field. Trainer Leandro Moreno-Barban sends him out with Inoel Beato up, a competent pairing for a dirt route. At 5/1 on the morning line, getting the field's top-rated horse with the best win percentage at that price is exactly the kind of edge TrackWiz analysis is built to find.

place1KarlwithanarlML 5/2

Karlwithanarl is the morning line second choice at 5/2 with a strong 82.52 TrackWiz rating and a 22% career win rate that shows consistency. Trainer Brandon Kulp has a horse ready to fire — we've seen his operation place horses in the money throughout this card — and jockey Angel Rodriguez maintains the mount for what appears to be a live runner. As the public choice, he'll be well-supported, and if Dynamite Karma hits the front, Karlwithanarl looks like the horse most likely to chase him down.

show6Arrow SpeedML 5/1

Arrow Speed rounds out the top three with an 81.52 TrackWiz rating, just a point behind our place pick, and trainer Brandon Kulp deploys jockey Jomar Torres — making Kulp responsible for two of the top three horses in this race. That kind of barn firepower in a single race is worth paying attention to. At 5/1, Arrow Speed's 17% career win rate and competitive average speed figure make him the logical show closer if you're building trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

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Seven races, two surfaces, and one very hot afternoon at Penn National. Our top free plays are Hope's Alive in Race 3, Lewis the Robber in Race 2, and Music Clarification in Race 1. For the complete picture — pace projections, exotic tickets, and our full dirt-card breakdown — subscribers have everything they need waiting for them right now. Good luck out there, and stay hydrated. It's going to be a long, profitable afternoon.

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