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Penn National Picks & Predictions — July 7, 2026

July 7, 20267 racesAll Penn National picks

This card ran on July 7, 2026.

Best bets at Penn National, July 7, 2026

Race 12UncommonML 2/15:45 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 5 races are for members.

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Last 30 days at Penn National: our top pick won 10 of 33 races (30%) and finished in the money in 20.

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Penn National sends out a seven-race card on Tuesday, July 7th under cloudy skies and a comfortable 77°F — the kind of mild summer afternoon where pace scenarios play out closer to form and the turf course figures to be running true. No heat-driven speed bias to worry about today, which means real handicapping will separate the tickets from the trash.

The card opens on the turf with a Maiden Special Weight mile-and-seventy-yards before pivoting to a run of dirt routes and sprints that carry the afternoon home. We've got claiming races, a starter allowance, and a pair of maiden claiming sprints to round things out — a nice mix of race types that gives both pace handicappers and class analysts plenty to dig into.

TrackWiz has rated all seven races. Three are unlocked for every reader, and four are reserved for premium subscribers. Let's set the table.

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Race 1

5:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 mi 70 yd · Turf

A wide-open MSW turf mile where the top two TrackWiz-rated horses hold a meaningful edge over the rest of the field — but maiden turf routes can always throw a curveball.

win2UncommonML 2/1

Uncommon draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 and backs it up with the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 76.93. Her average speed figure of 54 ties for tops in this spot, and trainer Richard J. Hendriks sends her out with jockey Angel R. Rodriguez aboard — a workmanlike pairing. In a maiden turf route where consistency matters, Uncommon profiles as the most reliable option from gate to wire.

place1Majestic RainML 3/1

Majestic Rain checks in with a solid 72.57 TrackWiz rating and draws the rail under Inoel Beato for trainer Michael Zalalas. She's at 3/1 on the morning line — fair value for a horse who figures to be right in the mix late on the front end. If Uncommon stumbles, Majestic Rain looks like the most natural beneficiary.

show3HonorisiaML 4/1

Honorisia rates third in the field at 60.95 and carries a 4/1 morning line with Dexter Haddock up for Jacinto Solis. Her average speed figure of 53 is respectable in this company, and the price makes her a logical inclusion in exacta and trifecta boxes. She won't beat the top two on paper, but she could easily fill the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

6:14 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Desperate Dreams is the class of this dirt-mile claimer on paper, but the 8/5 chalk Forget Tomorrow will keep the pace honest — this could come down to a stretch duel between the top two.

win5Desperate DreamsML 3/1

Desperate Dreams owns the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 87.08 and is the only horse here posting a 9% career win rate — a meaningful edge in a competitive claiming field. Her average speed figure of 55 is the best in the race by a comfortable margin, and trainer Mark V. Salvaggio sends her out with Jomar Torres in the irons. At 3/1, she's actually being underrated relative to her figures and represents genuine value over the morning-line favorite.

place1Forget TomorrowML 8/5

Forget Tomorrow opens at 8/5 as the public choice and backs it up with an 80.98 TrackWiz rating and a 6% career win rate. Angel Cruz gets the mount for trainer Richard P. Sillaman, and the combination has the look of a horse who should be running close throughout. Even if Desperate Dreams has too much, Forget Tomorrow looks like a safe place ticket at almost any price.

show3Maggie KML 5/2

Maggie K rates third in the field at 77.71 and is priced at 5/2 — tight enough that she's clearly respected by the morning-line makers. Trainer Jose F. Bobadilla sends her out with Manuel Aguilar, and her 6% career win rate matches the top two horses in this spot. If the pace between Desperate Dreams and Forget Tomorrow gets hot early, Maggie K could close into the exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

The first three races on the card are fully open to all TrackWiz readers, and they cover a solid range of conditions — a turf maiden, a dirt claiming mile, and a starter allowance route. Our top-rated pick in Race 1 is Uncommon (morning line 2/1, TrackWiz rating 76.93), who we like in what should be a relatively even turf field. The bigger number we're circling in the free races is Desperate Dreams in Race 2 — a 3/1 morning line with an 87.08 rating, the highest TrackWiz score among all three free picks. That kind of rating at that price is exactly what you're looking for in a claiming mile on dirt.

Kissthemoon rounds out the free trio in Race 3's starter allowance going a mile and seventy yards. Rated 85.62, this is a horse that fits the conditions well on a day when the dirt should be playing straightforward. All three of these races offer legitimate value, and on a cloudy, calm afternoon at Penn, there's no excuse not to have your tickets ready.

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Race 3

6:43 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A starter allowance at a mile and 70 yards where Kissthemoon and Sunday Spirit both carry big TrackWiz numbers — this looks like a two-horse show with the rest of the field fighting for third.

win6KissthemoonML 4/1

Kissthemoon tops the field with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and a 30% career win rate, which is genuinely impressive at this level. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp puts Angel R. Rodriguez up, and at 4/1 on the morning line there's legitimate value here considering she's the top-rated horse in the race. Her average speed of 53 is solid, and horses with a 30% career win rate in starter allowance company tend to find ways to win.

place2Sunday SpiritML 4/1

Sunday Spirit is breathing down Kissthemoon's neck with an 82.47 rating and a 27% career win rate for trainer Jacinto Solis. Andy Hernandez gets the call, and this horse has clearly been around the block enough to know how to compete at this level. At 4/1 — the same price as our top pick — she's almost impossible to leave off the ticket.

show5Mr. RippleML 5/2

Mr. Ripple slots in at 74.00 on the TrackWiz scale with a 30% career win rate that matches Kissthemoon — a figure that stands out. Angel Cruz has the mount for Timothy C. Kreiser, and at 5/2 he's the morning-line second choice, which tells you the public sees him as a serious contender. He's worth using in trifectas even if our top two have the edge on raw ratings.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 4

7:12 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A short-field maiden claimer going six furlongs on the dirt where two horses — Marlas Dream and Bramwell — clearly separate themselves from the pack on TrackWiz numbers.

win2Marlas DreamML 5/2

Marlas Dream leads all comers with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and is the top-rated horse in a field where the drop-off is steep. Trainer Mark V. Salvaggio — who also saddles Desperate Dreams in Race 2 — sends her out with Jomar Torres, and the Salvaggio-Torres combo has the look of a team that knows how to win. At 5/2 on the morning line, the price reflects her quality without being too short to play.

place3BramwellML 8/5

Bramwell opens as the 8/5 morning-line favorite and rates close at 81.79, which makes this essentially a pick-'em between the top two. David Cora rides for trainer T. Bernard Houghton, and the 8/5 price suggests the market respects Bramwell's chances even more than the ratings gap implies. Using both Marlas Dream and Bramwell on top in exactas is the prudent play here.

show5Rugged SmileML 4/1

Rugged Smile rates third in this short field at 55.00 and is priced at 4/1 for trainer Brandon L. Kulp with Angel R. Rodriguez up. The gap between Rugged Smile and the top two is significant, but in a five-horse maiden field someone has to fill out the trifecta. Her average speed of 53 keeps her in the conversation for minor awards.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 5

7:41 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Arrogante stands out as a significant class edge in this six-furlong dirt claimer, but the morning-line price of 9/2 suggests the market isn't fully buying in yet — that's where the value lives.

win3ArroganteML 9/2

Arrogante owns the top TrackWiz rating by a wide margin at 84.90, and his average speed figure of 55 is the best in the field. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets puts Yabriel O. Ramos aboard, and while his 11% career win rate is modest, the raw figures here are commanding. At 9/2 on the morning line — an underlay relative to his rating advantage — Arrogante is our best-bet play in this race.

place5Combat HoofsML 6/1

Combat Hoofs is an intriguing place play at 6/1, checking in with a 66.38 TrackWiz rating and a 13% career win rate. Also trained by Bruce M. Kravets, this barn clearly has a strong presence in the race, and Ricardo Chiappe gets the call. With Arrogante expected to draw attention, Combat Hoofs could sneak into the exotics at a generous price.

show2Quivira CraneML 5/2

Quivira Crane is the morning-line second choice at 5/2 with a 65.31 rating and a strong 23% career win rate — the best in this field. Angel R. Rodriguez rides for Elisha Perez, and the 23% clip over a career is the kind of number that keeps a horse relevant even when the figures say otherwise. She's a natural show play and helps structure exacta and trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

8:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Showmance is a clear standout on TrackWiz numbers in this six-furlong dirt claimer, but she opens at 4/1 despite being the top-rated horse — that gap between rating and price is exactly the kind of overlay we look for.

win1ShowmanceML 4/1

Showmance leads this field with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating — more than 12 points clear of the second-best horse — and carries a 14% career win rate for trainer T. Bernard Houghton. David Cora gets the mount, a capable hand at Penn National. At 4/1 while clearly dominating the ratings, Showmance is the kind of value play that makes this race worth attacking.

place4Designed by SmartyML 2/1

Designed by Smarty opens as the 2/1 morning-line favorite with a 73.36 TrackWiz rating and a respectable 11% career win rate. Inoel Beato rides for Erin C. McClellan, and an average speed of 54 — highest in the field — gives her a legitimate case to stay competitive. If Showmance stumbles, Designed by Smarty is the most likely horse to capitalize.

show3MenckeML 5/2

Mencke slots in third on the TrackWiz scale at 61.25 and is priced at 5/2, which makes her a public choice our numbers don't fully endorse. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets sends out Yabriel O. Ramos, and a 12% career win rate is workmanlike. She's the logical show play if you're structuring exotics around Showmance and Designed by Smarty.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 7

8:39 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The Piranha enters this maiden claimer sprint as a decisive ratings leader, but a field full of first-time starters and lightly raced horses means pace dynamics are anyone's guess — chaos factor is real here.

win4The PiranhaML 5/2

The Piranha tops this maiden claimer with an 87.81 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 54, matching Search for Silver and Tiz the Great for best in the field. Trainer Mark Ippolito puts Vladimir Diaz up, and the 5/2 morning line is a fair price for a horse who dominates on raw numbers. In a sprint full of unknowns, having the highest-rated runner is a real edge.

place2Tiz the GreatML 9/2

Tiz the Great rates second in the field at 75.19 and opens at 9/2 for trainer Henry Walters with Wilfredo Corujo aboard. The 12-point gap between The Piranha and Tiz the Great is notable, but in maiden company the figures can be volatile — a horse like Tiz the Great who has posted a 54 average speed figure has clearly shown something. At 9/2, she's a strong place contender and a natural partner for The Piranha in exactas.

show5Craigh Na DunML 6/1

Craigh Na Dun rates third in this field at 64.18 and is priced at 6/1 with Inoel Beato up for trainer Alan Bedard. The average speed of 53 is solid in context, and the 6/1 price gives meaningful value if you're looking to cover the trifecta. In a wide-open maiden dash, having a 6/1 shot in the third slot of your ticket is smart money management.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

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Seven races, mild conditions, and a card that rewards careful handicapping over gut instinct — that's Penn National on July 7th. Desperate Dreams is the free-card standout, but the premium picks featuring Marlas Dream and The Piranha are where our highest-rated horses of the day are waiting. Full card analysis, pace projections, and exotic ticket breakdowns are all available to subscribers at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck, and keep it smart out there.

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