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Penn National Picks & Predictions — July 2, 2026

July 2, 20267 racesAll Penn National picks

This card ran on July 2, 2026.

Best bets at Penn National, July 2, 2026

Race 11Itty Biddy CityML 3/15:45 PM EDT

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Last 30 days at Penn National: our top pick won 10 of 33 races (30%) and finished in the money in 20.

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Happy Thursday from Penn National, where a seven-race card is on tap for July 2nd and the sun is absolutely not messing around. We're talking a clear sky and a scorching 98°F at post time — the kind of heat that makes the walk from the parking lot feel like a test of character. Keep an eye on late-running horses, because the extreme heat can take a toll on pace-setters grinding through the stretch.

Today's card leans heavily on the grass, with three of the first four races going on the turf. That's good news if you've been tracking Penn's turf form, and our TrackWiz ratings identified some compelling angles across the board. We've got Maiden Special Weights, Claimers, and a Ratings Handicap to close things out — a nice mix of conditions that rewards sharp handicapping at every level.

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Race 1

5:45 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden special weight on the turf sees ten first-timers (or lightly raced types) with nearly identical average speed figures, making the TrackWiz ratings the clearest separator in what figures to be a bunched, unpredictable sprint.

win1Itty Biddy CityML 3/1

Itty Biddy City opens at 3/1 on the morning line and carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 86.23 — a meaningful gap over the second-ranked Collected Mist. Trainer Robert A. Wolfe, Jr. puts Yabriel O. Ramos in the irons, a positive combination to watch on the Penn National turf. In a maiden field where everyone is unproven, that rating edge and the connections' confidence suggested by the reasonable morning line make this the most logical win contender.

place2Collected MistML 6/1

Collected Mist checks in with a 72.10 TrackWiz rating, second-best in the field, at a juicy 6/1 morning line that offers real overlay potential if you're playing exotics. Kevin Gomez gets the call for trainer Kevin Monday, and at five furlongs on turf, a horse with upside can sneak into the exacta even if the winner gets away. At those odds, plugging Collected Mist underneath in your tickets is a smart play.

show3Holly LnML 8/1

Holly Ln at 8/1 is the third-ranked horse by TrackWiz rating (60.26) and represents solid show value at a double-digit morning line in a maiden field this deep and uncertain. Trainer Paulina Sinnefia sends her out with Dexter Haddock, and in a race where chaos is possible from wire to wire, a horse with top-five ratings is always a live show ticket. Use her in trifectas underneath the top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

6:14 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Turf

Sounds Like Fun enters as a dominant TrackWiz favorite in a maiden claiming route on the turf, but the 2/1 chalk will face a pace test at a mile and 70 yards against a field that includes a lone horse with proven career wins.

win7Sounds Like FunML 2/1

Sounds Like Fun owns the field's top TrackWiz rating at 88.54 and is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 — the numbers align cleanly here. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp sends this one out with Angel R. Rodriguez in the saddle, a sharp Penn National booking. In a route on turf against mostly maidens with no career wins, a horse with this kind of rating separation should be the one to beat in the stretch.

place8SnowstormML 7/2

Snowstorm rates second in the field at 69.88 and goes at a fair 7/2 on the morning line, making her the natural place horse underneath the favorite. Trainer Ronald W. Rogers has Maicol J. Inirio up, and at a mile and 70 yards, horses that can settle and finish are rewarded — Snowstorm's profile fits that mold. If Sounds Like Fun does the expected, expect Snowstorm to be right there collecting a piece.

show2TyrusML 6/1

Tyrus comes in third on the TrackWiz board at 57.40 and offers a solid show profile despite a 6/1 morning line that prices him as a middling price in this field. Trainer Anthony Pecoraro has him going at a distance that should suit a turf router, and while his lack of career wins matches most of the field, the rating gives him a leg up on the rest. He's a live show and trifecta option at a price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Our three free races — Races 1, 2, and 3 — are all contested on the turf, which sets up a useful theme. Itty Biddy City tops our board in Race 1 (a 5-furlong Maiden Special Weight) with a TrackWiz rating of 86.23 at morning-line odds of 3/1. Short turf sprints can be chaotic, but that rating suggests she has the underlying ability to sort it out. In Race 2, Sounds Like Fun earns our highest free-race rating at 88.54 and goes as the 2/1 morning-line choice in a Maiden Claiming route going a mile and 70 yards on the grass — that's a horse worth getting behind with confidence. Hopeforgreatness rounds out the free picks in Race 3 at 4/1; the rating of 84.67 is a tick lower, but in a Claiming turf sprint, that kind of price can carry real value.

The common thread here? All three free plays are on turf, and Penn's grass has been a sharp bettor's playground this meet. The hot, dry conditions shouldn't materially affect a firm turf course, so pace scenarios should play out relatively predictably — good news for horses our model likes on their back-class numbers.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

6:43 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A full, eleven-horse claiming field at five furlongs on the turf features a cluster of live contenders with legitimate career win percentages and a top three on the TrackWiz board separated by just five points — this one could go several ways.

win9HopeforgreatnessML 4/1

Hopeforgreatness leads our ratings at 84.67 and goes at 4/1 on the morning line, making him both the top-rated and a fair-priced play. Trainer Hugo O. Padilla saddles him with Melvis Gonzalez up, and a career win rate of 11% in a claiming field doesn't jump off the page — but the speed figure edge and rating tell the real story here. At five furlongs on turf, a horse that rates this high at a competitive price is worth anchoring your exotics around.

place3Simply StatedML 3/1

Simply Stated is the morning-line favorite at 3/1 and has a career win rate of 28% — the highest among the top three picks and a number that commands respect in any field. Trainer Brandon L. Kulp, who also saddles Three Polks in this race, sends Angel R. Rodriguez out on what could be the pace-presser of the group. At 3/1 with that win percentage, she's worth including in all horizontal tickets as a strong place option.

show11Bahamian MoonML 8/1

Bahamian Moon is the value piece of this trio at 8/1 on the morning line, carrying a 19% career win rate and the highest average speed figure among the three picks at 57. Trainer Michael V. Simone has Samuel Marin in the irons, and that speed figure edge on a five-furlong turf sprint is meaningful — speed translates fast at this distance. At 8/1, Bahamian Moon in the show slot of a trifecta is almost too good to pass up.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 4

7:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

A lean five-horse claiming field at a mile and 70 yards on the dirt presents a legitimate battle between two high-rated horses — Rob the Rich and Dixie Preach — with the morning line telling an interesting story about where the public money might land.

win1Rob the RichML 4/1

Rob the Rich tops the TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and carries a 23% career win rate — the best in this field — making him the standout value play at 4/1 when the morning-line favorite is actually rated lower. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets has Yabriel O. Ramos up, a solid Penn National combination, and at a route distance on dirt, a horse with that win percentage tends to find ways to fire. The fact that he's not the morning-line favorite despite leading the ratings makes him the most interesting win play on the card.

place5Dixie PreachML 9/5

Dixie Preach is the 9/5 morning-line chalk and rated a close second at 83.74, so the public clearly likes her chances — but she's never won more than 7% of her starts, which is a notable disconnect from her odds. Trainer Kevin J. Fields sends her out with Wilfredo Corujo, a capable handler at this track, and a route on the dirt plays to her profile as a closer who can grind. She's perfectly positioned as the place horse, where she can do her best work without having to wire the field.

show4DebateML 5/2

Debate goes at 5/2 with a 72.53 TrackWiz rating and an 8% career win rate, fitting the show profile in a tight five-horse field where every horse has a plausible path into the exacta. Trainer Robert A. Wolfe, Jr. has Vladimir Diaz handling the mount, and at a route distance, pace scenarios often shift in the final turn — giving closer-leaning horses like Debate a chance to collect a check. In such a short field, a wheel or partial wheel underneath Rob the Rich makes sense with Debate in the show slot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 5

7:41 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The top two TrackWiz-rated horses in this five-horse dirt sprint are separated by less than a point, setting up a genuine speed duel between Chain Reaction and Cappetta — with Infamous Nono lurking as a seasoned closer who wins at a 34% clip.

win3Chain ReactionML 3/1

Chain Reaction leads the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and goes at 3/1 — a morning line that correctly identifies him as a top contender without making him unplayable. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets puts Yabriel O. Ramos up, and at six furlongs on the dirt, a horse averaging a 55 speed figure has a slight edge over most of this field. The rating separation is thin but real, and at 3/1 he offers better value than the morning-line favorite.

place4CappettaML 8/5

Cappetta is the 8/5 morning-line chalk with an 86.22 TrackWiz rating — virtually deadlocked with the win pick — and carries a 16% career win rate with Emilio Flores in the irons for trainer Kevin J. Fields. The razor-thin rating gap between these two makes the exacta combining Chain Reaction and Cappetta in both orders the obvious play. At 8/5, she's likely to be overbet to win, making her far better value as a place horse in exotics.

show5Infamous NonoML 5/2

Infamous Nono deserves serious respect here — a 34% career win rate is the best in the field by a wide margin and suggests a horse who consistently finds the winner's circle at this level. Trainer Mark V. Salvaggio has David Cora up, and at 5/2 on the morning line, this isn't a longshot by price — but at a 73.78 rating, a bit behind the top two, show is the right slot for a horse who might just need things to set up perfectly. Don't leave Infamous Nono off your trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 6

8:10 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Seven go at a mile and 70 yards on the dirt in a claiming race where the morning-line favorite (Confabulation at 5/2) is actually fifth on the TrackWiz board — a classic vulnerable-favorite setup that creates real value on top-rated horses going at longer prices.

win1ColomaML 6/1

Coloma tops the TrackWiz board at 82.71 and gets out at 6/1 — a significant overlay given he's the best-rated horse in the race and carries a 27% career win rate, the highest in the field. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets has Yabriel O. Ramos up, one of the barn's preferred riders, and at a route distance on dirt, a horse winning more than one in four starts is a consistent performer worth backing. When the top-rated horse at the highest win percentage is also the second-biggest price in the field, that's a value flag you don't ignore.

place3Run Happy PappyML 9/2

Run Happy Pappy is virtually tied with Coloma at 81.56 on the TrackWiz ratings and ships in at 9/2, making him another overlay in a race where the public seems to be overweighting the morning-line choice. Trainer Elisha Perez has Jomar Torres aboard, and a 20% career win rate is respectable in a dirt route at this level. He should be on every exotic ticket in this race — exactas, trifectas, and pick sequences.

show6Uninvited GuestML 8/1

Uninvited Guest sits third on our ratings at 76.46 and is offered at 8/1 — a legitimate price for a horse who rates well above average in this field. Trainer Timothy C. Kreiser sends Angel Cruz out on a horse with a 10% career win rate, and while that number is modest, the TrackWiz figure suggests the horse is better than that win percentage indicates. In a race with two overlays on top, Uninvited Guest as the show leg in a trifecta creates a potentially lucrative ticket.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

8:39 PM EDT

Ratings Handicap · 6 fur · Dirt

The ratings handicap at six furlongs on the dirt features an eye-catching disconnect between the public's morning-line favorite and the horse our numbers like best — For Some Reason rates highest in the field but goes at 6/1, creating what looks like a prime value opportunity.

win4For Some ReasonML 6/1

For Some Reason leads all entrants with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 55, yet the morning line has him at 6/1 — tied for third-longest in the field. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets gives the mount to Yabriel O. Ramos, and with a 19% career win rate in a competitive handicap, this horse has the credentials to back up the numbers. When our top-rated horse in a race is offered at 6/1, that's the definition of a value play — don't let the public's underestimation cost you.

place7Heard On ThestreetML 6/1

Heard On Thestreet also goes at 6/1 on the morning line and rates third in the field at 75.21, making him a legitimate overlay for place tickets as well. Trainer Timothy C. Kreiser has Angel Cruz in the irons, and a 22% career win rate in what is labeled a ratings handicap means this horse has been competitive at multiple levels. At the same price as the win pick, pairing them in an exacta in both directions is a savvy play.

show8Five DreamsML 5/2

Five Dreams is the public's choice at 5/2 but rates fourth in the field at 70.50 — solid but behind the top three on our board. Trainer Bruce M. Kravets doubles up in this race alongside For Some Reason, which is worth noting as the barn clearly has a strong presence, and Ricardo Chiappe is a capable handler at Penn National. A 18% career win rate at 5/2 makes Five Dreams a respectable show option, but the ratings suggest you're getting a better deal elsewhere on top.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

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Penn National is serving up a compact but intriguing Thursday card, and the turf-heavy early races give us plenty to work with right out of the gate. Our top plays on the free side are Sounds Like Fun in Race 2 and Itty Biddy City in Race 1 — both horses our model rates with conviction. For the full-card breakdown, pace projections, and exotic wager strategies on Races 4–7, grab a TrackWiz Premium subscription at /pricing. Stay hydrated, bet smart, and good luck out there.

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