Penn National Picks & Predictions — July 1, 2026
Happy July 1st, and welcome to Penn National, where the mercury is sitting at a scorching 95°F under clear skies. Heat like this matters — it can sap late energy from horses with questionable fitness and put a premium on front-runners who can get to the rail and relax early.
We've got a 7-race card to break down today, and it's a genuinely interesting mix. The first three races go on the turf, giving us three consecutive grass sprints and a route to set the tone. Then the card pivots to the main track for the final four, including a pair of allowance events and a Ratings Handicap to close. Plenty to work with.
Three races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader — Races 1, 2, and 3 — with the remaining four available to premium subscribers. Let's set the table.
Best Bets
Race 1
Allowance · 5 fur · Turf
A clear class standout tops this 5-furlong turf allowance, but the secondary market looks wide open with three horses capable of filling the exacta slots.
Letter to You is the most compelling number in the race, sporting a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 that towers over the field — and that 66% career win rate is genuinely elite at this level. Trainer Kathleen Demasi is doubling up here, running both the 1 and the 4, which tells you she's confident in this entry. Jockey Silvestre Gonzalez inherits the pick of the barn at 2/1 on the morning line, and on paper this looks like the right assignment.
Tropandhagen lands at 7/2 on the morning line and posts a solid 83.6 TrackWiz rating, second-best in the field. The 14% career win rate is modest but the rating suggests consistent late efforts — this one could easily be chasing Letter to You home in the exacta.
Luca Machine at 6/1 is an interesting underneath play, carrying the third-highest rating in the race (74.44) and a 25% career win rate that's the strongest of the non-favorites. Angel Rodriguez picks up the mount and this horse offers real show-ticket value at a price that could easily drift higher.
Race 2
Claiming · 5 fur · Turf
Gins and Tins sets up as a heavy favorite on paper in this 5-furlong turf claimer, but a big, diverse field of eight means there's legitimate exacta and trifecta value lurking in the middle of the lineup.
Gins and Tins draws the top TrackWiz rating in the race at 88.54 — matching Letter to You from Race 1 — and while a 14% career win rate isn't eye-popping, the sheer performance edge over this field is hard to dismiss. Angel Rodriguez takes the call from post 6, giving the horse a clean outside trip in a sprint that rewards pace-pressing types. At 2/1 on the morning line, the price is short but the rating justifies the confidence.
Great Kisser comes in with an 80.16 rating and has the benefit of the inside post, which on a tight 5-furlong turf sprint can be a genuine asset if the horse breaks clean. Trainer Bruce Kravets sends out two horses in this race, which suggests he likes his chances here — and a 15% career win rate at a 3/1 morning line makes this a strong place contender.
Harbor of Gold at 8/1 is a legit show-ticket dart with a 71.88 rating that ranks third in the field. Trainer Kathleen Demasi is red-hot today running horses in multiple races, and Jomar Torres is a capable rider who can navigate traffic in a crowd. Don't let the 8/1 morning line scare you off in the exotics.
Race 3
Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Turf
Nine go in this Starter Optional Claiming route on turf at 1 mile and 70 yards — a distance that separates stamina from speed, and one horse's rating dwarfs the rest of this field by a significant margin.
Brockton is the class of this field, posting an 87.08 TrackWiz rating that's more than 23 points ahead of the next rival. The 16% career win rate might look pedestrian, but this is a nine-horse field and that rating advantage is substantial. Angel Rodriguez rides, and the barn of Brandon Kulp appears to have its best card today — keep an eye on that trainer angle. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a fair price for a horse who looks like the best in the race on paper.
Royal Renegade is an interesting stalker type with a 73.31 rating and a morning line of 6/1 that could offer a bit of value. Jomar Torres handles the mount, and the route distance of a mile and 70 yards should suit a horse whose rating suggests it finishes off its races rather than sprinting to the lead.
Billy White Shoes at 9/2 sits third in the ratings at 63.21 and shares the Brandon Kulp barn with top pick Brockton — the trainer has two live horses in this race, which is worth noting. An 11% career win rate over a route isn't flashy, but Angel Cruz is an experienced hand and this horse is very much worth including in your trifecta tickets.
The free portion of today's card is loaded with turf action, and that's good news because the Penn National grass course should be playing fair on a dry, sunny afternoon. Letter to You opens the show at 2/1 on the morning line — a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 makes her the highest-rated horse in the free picks and one of the top-rated horses on the entire card. In Race 2, Gins and Tins matches that 88.54 rating in what sets up as a tighter claiming field — watch the pace scenario carefully in a short 5-furlong dash. Then Brockton stretches the distance out to 1 mile and 70 yards in Race 3's Starter Optional Claiming event, carrying a solid 87.08 rating at a fair 3/1 morning line. If you're playing turf exactas early, these three races offer a connected thread worth building around.
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Today at Penn National it's all about staying sharp through the turf-to-dirt transition and not letting the summer heat fool you into fading horses too early. Letter to You, Gins and Tins, and Brockton headline the free plays — and if you want the full story on Bugged Out's 8/1 price, the dirt allowance double, and our Race 7 exotic tickets, the complete card breakdown is waiting for subscribers. Go premium and make the most of the July card.