Daily Picks

Penn National Picks & Predictions — July 1, 2026

July 1, 20267 racesAll Penn National picks

This card ran on July 1, 2026.

Best bets at Penn National, July 1, 2026

Race 14Letter to YouML 2/15:45 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 5 races are for members.

A free account opens race 2 too. Premium opens all 7, with AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet, which splits one bet across the horses you like.

Last 30 days at Penn National: our top pick won 10 of 33 races (30%) and finished in the money in 20.

Join Free See plans · from $9.99

Happy July 1st, and welcome to Penn National, where the mercury is sitting at a scorching 95°F under clear skies. Heat like this matters — it can sap late energy from horses with questionable fitness and put a premium on front-runners who can get to the rail and relax early.

We've got a 7-race card to break down today, and it's a genuinely interesting mix. The first three races go on the turf, giving us three consecutive grass sprints and a route to set the tone. Then the card pivots to the main track for the final four, including a pair of allowance events and a Ratings Handicap to close. Plenty to work with.

Three races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader — Races 1, 2, and 3 — with the remaining four available to premium subscribers. Let's set the table.

Best Bets

Race 1

5:45 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 fur · Turf

A clear class standout tops this 5-furlong turf allowance, but the secondary market looks wide open with three horses capable of filling the exacta slots.

win4Letter to YouML 2/1

Letter to You is the most compelling number in the race, sporting a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 that towers over the field — and that 66% career win rate is genuinely elite at this level. Trainer Kathleen Demasi is doubling up here, running both the 1 and the 4, which tells you she's confident in this entry. Jockey Silvestre Gonzalez inherits the pick of the barn at 2/1 on the morning line, and on paper this looks like the right assignment.

place3TropandhagenML 7/2

Tropandhagen lands at 7/2 on the morning line and posts a solid 83.6 TrackWiz rating, second-best in the field. The 14% career win rate is modest but the rating suggests consistent late efforts — this one could easily be chasing Letter to You home in the exacta.

show2Luca MachineML 6/1

Luca Machine at 6/1 is an interesting underneath play, carrying the third-highest rating in the race (74.44) and a 25% career win rate that's the strongest of the non-favorites. Angel Rodriguez picks up the mount and this horse offers real show-ticket value at a price that could easily drift higher.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

6:14 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

Gins and Tins sets up as a heavy favorite on paper in this 5-furlong turf claimer, but a big, diverse field of eight means there's legitimate exacta and trifecta value lurking in the middle of the lineup.

win6Gins and TinsML 2/1

Gins and Tins draws the top TrackWiz rating in the race at 88.54 — matching Letter to You from Race 1 — and while a 14% career win rate isn't eye-popping, the sheer performance edge over this field is hard to dismiss. Angel Rodriguez takes the call from post 6, giving the horse a clean outside trip in a sprint that rewards pace-pressing types. At 2/1 on the morning line, the price is short but the rating justifies the confidence.

place1Great KisserML 3/1

Great Kisser comes in with an 80.16 rating and has the benefit of the inside post, which on a tight 5-furlong turf sprint can be a genuine asset if the horse breaks clean. Trainer Bruce Kravets sends out two horses in this race, which suggests he likes his chances here — and a 15% career win rate at a 3/1 morning line makes this a strong place contender.

show4Harbor of GoldML 8/1

Harbor of Gold at 8/1 is a legit show-ticket dart with a 71.88 rating that ranks third in the field. Trainer Kathleen Demasi is red-hot today running horses in multiple races, and Jomar Torres is a capable rider who can navigate traffic in a crowd. Don't let the 8/1 morning line scare you off in the exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

The free portion of today's card is loaded with turf action, and that's good news because the Penn National grass course should be playing fair on a dry, sunny afternoon. Letter to You opens the show at 2/1 on the morning line — a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 makes her the highest-rated horse in the free picks and one of the top-rated horses on the entire card. In Race 2, Gins and Tins matches that 88.54 rating in what sets up as a tighter claiming field — watch the pace scenario carefully in a short 5-furlong dash. Then Brockton stretches the distance out to 1 mile and 70 yards in Race 3's Starter Optional Claiming event, carrying a solid 87.08 rating at a fair 3/1 morning line. If you're playing turf exactas early, these three races offer a connected thread worth building around.

Free with an account

Open the next race free

A free account opens the first 2 races at every track, and every race at our Track of the Day. No credit card needed.

Create a free account Sign in

Full Card Analysis

Race 3

6:43 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Turf

Nine go in this Starter Optional Claiming route on turf at 1 mile and 70 yards — a distance that separates stamina from speed, and one horse's rating dwarfs the rest of this field by a significant margin.

win9BrocktonML 3/1

Brockton is the class of this field, posting an 87.08 TrackWiz rating that's more than 23 points ahead of the next rival. The 16% career win rate might look pedestrian, but this is a nine-horse field and that rating advantage is substantial. Angel Rodriguez rides, and the barn of Brandon Kulp appears to have its best card today — keep an eye on that trainer angle. At 3/1 on the morning line, this is a fair price for a horse who looks like the best in the race on paper.

place2Royal RenegadeML 6/1

Royal Renegade is an interesting stalker type with a 73.31 rating and a morning line of 6/1 that could offer a bit of value. Jomar Torres handles the mount, and the route distance of a mile and 70 yards should suit a horse whose rating suggests it finishes off its races rather than sprinting to the lead.

show8Billy White ShoesML 9/2

Billy White Shoes at 9/2 sits third in the ratings at 63.21 and shares the Brandon Kulp barn with top pick Brockton — the trainer has two live horses in this race, which is worth noting. An 11% career win rate over a route isn't flashy, but Angel Cruz is an experienced hand and this horse is very much worth including in your trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 4

7:12 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A full ten-horse turf field at one mile offers plenty of wagering angles, with a value play at the top of our ratings that the morning line has priced as a mid-tier contender — exactly the kind of race that rewards deeper handicapping.

win6Bugged OutML 8/1

Bugged Out is our top pick here despite an 8/1 morning line, posting a 79.79 TrackWiz rating that is the highest in this field — a classic overlay scenario. David Cora picks up the mount for trainer Charles DeMario, and a 17% career win rate in a ten-horse claiming field is respectable. If you're looking for a value play to anchor your exacta, Bugged Out at 8/1 is exactly the kind of horse TrackWiz analysis is designed to surface.

place10Starship BelmontML 3/1

Starship Belmont checks in at 3/1 on the morning line with a 72.78 rating, second in the field, and trainer Brandon Kulp once again has a horse right in the thick of things. Angel Rodriguez rides, giving the horse a skilled jockey for a one-mile turf journey. This one looks like a secure place contender and a natural part of any multi-horse exotic.

show3Mary's RewardML 8/1

Mary's Reward at 8/1 brings a 23% career win rate — one of the better records in this field — and a 62.35 rating that ranks her third overall. Trainer Brandon Kulp saddles this one too, making it three Kulp horses in the top picks today — a meaningful stable angle. At 8/1, she's worth slotting into show and trifecta tickets as a sneaky runner.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 5

7:41 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Five-horse allowance fields on dirt can feel like a pick-'em, but the numbers here tell a different story — a clear top two emerge, with a legitimate pace setup that could sort the order quickly in this 6-furlong sprint.

win5No No JoeML 5/2

No No Joe is the horse to beat, logging the field's top TrackWiz rating at 87.81 alongside a 26% career win rate — the best winning percentage in this five-horse field. The 5/2 morning line reflects legitimate respect from the morning-line maker, and trainer Cody Beattie has two horses in this race, suggesting confidence in the barn's form. Leonardo Corujo gets the mount, and if this horse can settle in a clear trip on the rail, the short sprint distance could play perfectly.

place2OneofthegoodguysML 5/1

Oneofthegoodguys is the natural backup at 5/1 with an 81.83 rating — a very narrow gap behind the top pick that makes this an excellent exacta partner. Trainer Cody Beattie again, meaning the barn is firing here in a coordinated way. At 5/1 on the morning line, there's some value to bridge that price gap in your exactas.

show1SearcyML 9/5

Searcy opened as the morning-line favorite at 9/5, which tells you the public is on this horse — but our TrackWiz rating of 65.28 has her third in the field despite that short price. The 23% career win rate is strong and jockey Jean Gregor Briceno is an experienced hand. She's a solid show ticket and a threat to complicate the exacta if she gets loose on the front end.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 6

8:10 PM EDT

Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

Five-horse dirt sprint at 6 furlongs with a fascinating ratings vs. morning-line mismatch — the horse with the highest win percentage in the race isn't the public's choice, and that's where the value lives.

win5Clarely TomML 4/1

Clarely Tom is our top selection with an 85.62 TrackWiz rating and a remarkable 50% career win rate — when this horse hits the board, it tends to win. Trainer Flint Stites doesn't flood the entries, so when he shows up with a horse at this level, it tends to be ready. The 4/1 morning line is reasonable given that win rate, and Wilfredo Corujo is a sharp pick to coax another winning effort out of this sprinter.

place4Bronx BoysML 2/1

Bronx Boys goes as the 2/1 morning-line favorite, which means the betting public will be on this horse — and an 77.29 rating is the second-best in the field, so there's merit to that favoritism. Angel Rodriguez rides for trainer Brandon Kulp, a combo that's been active all card today. Regardless of how the win bet plays out, Bronx Boys looks like a near-lock to fill a place slot.

show1CountthebraveML 3/1

Countthebrave opens at 3/1 with a 64.58 rating and a 16% career win rate that's workmanlike for a five-horse spot. What stands out is the pace scenario — in a small field of five, pace scenarios tend to be simpler, and Ruben Silvera on the inside post for trainer Julio Rodriguez could have this horse saving ground all the way. A worthwhile show ticket at a fair price.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 5 runners

Race 7

8:39 PM EDT

Ratings Handicap · 6 fur · Dirt

A Ratings Handicap on 6-furlong dirt with a clear top-rated horse at a fair price — but the secondary runners are tightly bunched in the 70s, setting up a competitive exacta with multiple live combinations.

win4Strawberry TreatML 2/1

Strawberry Treat tops the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54 and goes as the 2/1 morning-line choice, the perfect convergence of our numbers and public support. Trainer Michael Zalalas runs two horses in this race, and assigning Inoel Beato to Strawberry Treat strongly suggests this is the barn's main hope. A 15% career win rate is the one modest note in an otherwise strong profile, but in a seven-horse Ratings Handicap, the top rating usually finds a way to the wire.

place5Mischief WarriorML 6/1

Mischief Warrior at 6/1 is a genuine value overlay in the place spot, posting a 79.65 rating while being priced like a long shot. The 8% career win rate is low, but trainer Amy Albright's horse clearly has the underlying talent — that rating tells you it runs big efforts even when it doesn't win. Angel Quinones aboard adds a capable pair of hands, and at 6/1 the place return here could be significantly better than the win price on the favorite.

show2Ellie's BoyfriendML 7/2

Ellie's Boyfriend at 7/2 is the third-highest rated horse at 78.71 and brings a 22% career win rate that is the strongest mark of any horse in this race outside of the top pick. David Cora picks up the mount for trainer Bruce Kravets, a respected barn at Penn National. This horse is comfortable in exacta and trifecta roles — at 7/2 it's worth slotting behind both the top two picks in your multi-horse tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Today at Penn National it's all about staying sharp through the turf-to-dirt transition and not letting the summer heat fool you into fading horses too early. Letter to You, Gins and Tins, and Brockton headline the free plays — and if you want the full story on Bugged Out's 8/1 price, the dirt allowance double, and our Race 7 exotic tickets, the complete card breakdown is waiting for subscribers. Go premium and make the most of the July card.

← All Penn National picks & predictions