Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — November 9, 2026

Wildwood Attack rates a strong second at 74.84 and brings the marquee connections — Bendezu at 25% win rate and 64% in the money, and the Bendezu-Becker combo clocks a 34% win rate together over the past year. The concern is recent form: only one placing in the last five starts and just one placing in five dirt tries. This is a horse whose connections suggest more talent than the recent record shows — place coverage makes sense at 4/1.

Big Notion earns a 70.79 TrackWiz rating and ranks second in recent speed figures at 12.91 sec/furlong, right in the mix on raw pace numbers. Jockey Barrios brings a creditable 18% win rate and 47% in-the-money rate, and trainer Juan Pablo Silva holds an A- grade. The horse has hit the board in 30% of its starts, modest but not alarming for a maiden. At 8/1, Big Notion is a live show horse and an interesting trifecta piece.

Nightwind sits a razor-thin second in ratings at 85.19 and brings the top connections combo in the race — Bendezu and Martinez together have a 33% win rate and 79% in-the-money rate over the past year. The horse has placed in 17 of 34 dirt starts, showing surface reliability, and the sim model gave Nightwind a 20.49% win share — actually edging Bossme in the simulations. At 2/1 on the morning line, Nightwind is the natural place play if you're keying Bossme on top.

Sundaeswithsandy rates third in the field at 72.47 and ranks second in recent speed figures at 12.88 sec/furlong — keeping pace with the top two on raw numbers. Parker has a 19% win rate and 56% in-the-money rate, and the horse has a 24% career win rate, the second-highest among the main contenders. The age concern (7 years old) is noted, but the recent form is solid enough to trust in the exotics at 7/2.

Boogie Bode is nipping at Fregon's heels at a TrackWiz rating of 76.27 and has the elite pilot — Bendezu riding with a 25% win rate. The horse has placed in three of its last five starts, showing consistent recent form, and carries an 18% career win rate. The concern is a slight class hike (claiming price moved up from $4,000 to $5,000) and an age flag at 6 years old. Still, with a 21.21% sim win share, this is very much a live win horse as well — place coverage at 2/1 is straightforward.

Judge Rules rates third in the field at 65.19 and owns a solid dirt record — three wins and placed in 13 of 21 starts on the surface. The Leon-Silva combo has a 21% win rate and 56% in-the-money rate together over the past year, adding a connections edge. The horse has also placed in more than half of its career starts (53% in-the-money), and at 10/1 on the morning line, Judge Rules is an outstanding trifecta piece with real show upside.

Elsie's Legacy rates second in the field at 74.95 and brings the elite connections combo — Bendezu and Martinez together have that 33% win rate and 79% in-the-money rate that keeps showing up as one of the meet's most potent partnerships. The claiming price drop from $5,000 to $3,200 is a classic class-relief angle worth flagging. At 7/1 on the morning line, Elsie's Legacy offers meaningful value if Snookie Jones stumbles, and the 14.14% sim win share makes this a legitimate contender rather than just a price play.

Charthena rates third at 66.17 and owns a pair of strong workout figures — ranked second in recent race speed at 12.90 sec/furlong and second in recent workouts at 12.67 sec/furlong. The claiming drop from $12,500 all the way down to $3,200 is a massive class relief — that horse may have been misplaced at the higher tag. The concern is a modest 1-for-4 record at this sprint distance, but the workout sharpness and class angle make Charthena worth a spot in the trifecta at 8/1.

Blaze Beauty posts the best recent speed figure in this field at 12.39 sec/furlong and rates a strong second at 83.26 on the TrackWiz scale. Jockey Brody Martinez has a 24% win rate and 56% in-the-money rate — a legitimate top-level pilot — and the horse has placed in two of three starts at a mile, actually the best distance record of the top contenders. The concern is three consecutive off-the-board efforts, which is a real red flag. At 4/1, Blaze Beauty is best used as a place and exotics horse given that recent form slide.

Cloudy Bay rates third in the field at 57.52 and doesn't have the flashy numbers of the top two, but brings a 10% career win rate and reasonable in-the-money history. The horse has no specific positive angles flagged in the data, but no glaring concerns beyond a modest record at a mile (3 placings in 13 tries). At 5/1, Cloudy Bay is a logical trifecta filler in a race where the top two have legitimate upside — covering the third slot makes sense given the field's overall inconsistency.

Mischievous Juan rates a close second at 81.75 and has placed in its last two starts — the kind of current form that matters in a sprint where horses can live and die by recent sharpness. The TrackWiz model credits multiple wins at this distance and surface, and trainer Vazquez earns an A grade, the best in the race among the top contenders. The 2/1 morning line makes Mischievous Juan the market's choice, and with a 21.34% sim win share that actually tops Sneads, this is a legitimate win contender as well — just an older horse (8) that you'd rather protect in the place slot.

Jack Bob and Larry sits third in the ratings at 80.4 and ranks second in recent speed figures at 12.57 sec/furlong — right on the heels of Sneads. The dirt record backs it up: five wins and placed in 17 of 30 starts on the surface, plus one win and three placings in four starts at 5.5 furlongs specifically. The concern is five consecutive off-the-board efforts — that's a cold streak that demands respect. At 7/1, there's enough past form and class here to include Jack Bob and Larry in trifecta coverage, but the recent form slide is a genuine concern.