Daily Picks

Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — November 10, 2026

November 10, 20268 racesAll Mountaineer picks

Best bets at Mountaineer today

Race 16New Age Bad GirlML 7/17:00 PM EST

Track of the Day: the other 7 races are free with an account.

It's our Track of the Day: a free account opens every race on this card. Premium opens every race at every track, with AI ratings on every runner and SmartBet.

Join Free See plans · from $9.99

New Age Bad Girl is our best bet on the free side of tonight's card — she clocks in with the 2nd-fastest recent race speed in Race 1 (12.13 sec/furlong) and her jockey has posted a 25% win rate and hit the board in 66% of starts over the past year. At 7/1 on the morning line, that's a price worth circling before post time.

It's a crisp, clear night at Mountaineer — 49°F and calm — which should keep the turf firm and the dirt fast. Eight races are on the slate, mixing claiming and allowance company across both surfaces, with two turf routes headlining the early card and a steady diet of dirt sprints and routes carrying you home.

The mix of surfaces and conditions makes tonight's card more nuanced than a typical Tuesday, and our TrackWiz simulations found some genuine value spots scattered throughout — including a couple of longer-priced horses whose numbers quietly outrun their morning lines.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:00 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open turf mile at the bottom of the claiming ladder, with no clear pace shape and all ten runners listed as unproven in terms of running style — this one could get chaotic early and reward whoever saves ground.

win6New Age Bad GirlML 7/1

New Age Bad Girl tops the TrackWiz ratings at 81.25 and ranks second for recent race speed at 12.13 sec/furlong, two meaningful edges in what is otherwise a jumbled field. Jockey Erik Barbaran has posted a 25% win rate and placed in 66% of races over the past year, making this one of the stronger rider-horse combinations on the card. She's hit the board in 3 of her last 4 starts and shows an 18% career win rate, so the form is consistent. The one flag worth noting: she's the only runner in this field not on Lasix, which bears watching, but our model still puts her atop the leaderboard.

place4Alien PrincessML 4/1

Alien Princess (No. 4) is the second-highest rated horse in this field at 79.06 and owns a legitimate turf pedigree — 3 wins from 7 grass starts and placed in 4 of them. She leads the field in recent race speed at 11.65 sec/furlong, and her 28% career win rate is the second-best in this field. With jockey Luis Tapara carrying an A- grade, the connections look solid for a runner who's placed in her last two.

show10Miss M MML 10/1

Miss M M (No. 10) is an interesting piece at 10/1 on the morning line. She ranks third in the field on our ratings at 68.44 and third in recent race speed, while the Tapara-Bernardini jockey/trainer combo has combined for a 28% win rate and 69% in-the-money mark over the past year — that's one of the strongest partnership numbers on today's card. The concern is she's six years old and stepping up in claiming price from $4,000 to $5,000, but at double-digit odds she's worth including in your exotics.

We ran Race 1 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Alien Princess20%
5Built Different17%
6New Age Bad Girl16%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 1 is the one free look we're giving everyone tonight, and New Age Bad Girl earns that spotlight on merit. She goes a mile on the turf — a surface that tends to reward horses with recent pace efficiency — and her speed profile holds up well against this field. The jockey angle is real: a 25% win rate over the past year isn't a fluke, and that kind of in-the-money consistency (66%) means she's rarely far from the action when it counts.

With a 15.84% simulation win probability against a 7/1 morning line, our models see meaningful overlay potential here. That's the kind of gap — where the crowd underestimates a horse the numbers like — that makes a race worth playing rather than watching.

Track of the Day: Every Race Free with an Account

Race 2

7:25 PM EST

Allowance · 7 fur · Turf

A 14-horse allowance sprint on the turf with two horses separated from the field on ratings — Zealous Storm and Cowboy Roy both sit in the mid-to-upper 80s while most of the field clusters in the 60s and below, suggesting a potential top-two battle with real separation at the top.

win14Zealous StormML 2/1

Zealous Storm (No. 14) is the class of this field at a 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in the race — and backs it up with hard numbers: a 38% career win rate, 88% in-the-money rate, and she's placed in 5 of her last 6 starts. She ranks second in recent race speed at 11.70 sec/furlong and her Greenidge/Poole combo has clicked at an 18% win rate and 51% in-the-money over the past year. At 2/1 on the morning line, she's not a bargain, but the data makes her the most logical top choice in the race.

place6Cowboy RoyML 2/1

Cowboy Roy (No. 6) sits just below Zealous Storm at an 85.95 rating — second in this field — and he's put together an impressive current form cycle, placing in each of his last 5 starts. He ranks third in recent race speed at 11.98 sec/furlong and jockey Deshawn Parker has a 19% win rate and placed in 56% of races over the past year. The one wrinkle is a rest angle: he's coming in on only 29 days, and the data suggests he performs better with 30 or more days between starts. Worth noting, but the form is too good to ignore.

show11RockdustML 5/2

Rockdust (No. 11) might be the steadiest horse in the race — he's placed in all 5 of his last 5 starts and gone in-the-money in every single sprint race he's entered (5 for 5). Our model gave him a 13.36% simulation win share, which aligns with his 5/2 morning line. He's not a banger, but the consistency angle in a race where plenty of horses have question marks makes him a logical show play and exacta connector.

We ran Race 2 10,000 times. Most wins:

14Zealous Storm18%
6Cowboy Roy17%
11Rockdust13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

Race 3

7:50 PM EST

Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The top two horses in this allowance sprint on dirt are separated from the rest of the field by a noticeable ratings gap — Hot Cocoa (84.17) and Emily's Joy (80.34) both sit well clear of the No. 3 finisher at 64.35, setting up what looks like a two-horse race with the rest fighting for third.

win2Hot CocoaML 5/1

Hot Cocoa (No. 2) is the top-rated horse in this race at 84.17 and her dirt record speaks for itself — 3 wins from 9 dirt starts with 7 total in-the-money finishes, and she's placed in each of her last 4 races. Trainer Jay Bernardini earns an A- grade, jockey Deshawn Parker has hit the board in 56% of his races over the past year, and their pairing has connected at a 19% clip. Our simulations gave her a 20% win share, the highest in the field — she's the standout here.

place1Emily's JoyML 6/1

Emily's Joy (No. 1) sits just behind at 80.34 and ranks second in recent race speed at 12.47 sec/furlong, with 3 wins from 12 dirt starts. The Greenidge/Poole combo riding for the same trainer as the win pick has posted 18% wins and 51% in-the-money for the past year. She's placed in 7 of 12 dirt races total and has been consistent at this surface and distance. If you're keying exactas and trifectas, putting her underneath Hot Cocoa and on top of the show pick is the natural play.

show9Early DeliveryML 3/1

Early Delivery (No. 9) brings a solid local record — she's placed in 3 of 4 starts at Mountaineer and has hit the board in 4 of her last 6 races. At 3/1 on the morning line, she's attracting some public support, and our model gave her a 15.71% simulation win share, which is third-best in the field. The concern is a C-grade jockey and trainer, but the form cycle and track record here are legitimate enough to include her in your exotics.

We ran Race 3 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Hot Cocoa20%
1Emily's Joy18%
4Cinderbella17%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 4

8:15 PM EST

Claiming · 4 1/2 fur · Dirt

Two horses sit well above the rest in this 12-horse dirt sprint — Elmore at 84.01 and New York New York at 82.71 are each at least 8 points clear of the third-ranked horse, making this look like a logical top-two affair at a reasonable claiming level.

win9ElmoreML 3/1

Elmore (No. 9) is the top-rated runner in the field at 84.01 and owns a perfect dirt record — 1 win from 3 starts with all 3 in-the-money, a 100% hit rate on that surface. He's placed in each of his last 3 starts and jockey Erik Barbaran brings a 25% win rate and 66% in-the-money mark over the past year, one of the strongest rider numbers on today's card. Our simulations gave Elmore a 20.24% win share — the highest in the race — and at 3/1 morning line he's not priced away from value. This is as clean a top selection as you'll find today.

place8New York New YorkML 6/1

New York New York (No. 8) grades out second in the field at 82.71 and his dirt form is excellent — 1 win and 7 in-the-money finishes from 10 dirt starts. He's placed in each of his last 3 races, and the trainer Juan Pablo Silva pairs with jockey Jose Leon at a 22% win rate and 57% in-the-money mark over the past year. At 6/1 on the morning line, he's worth including in exactas behind Elmore, with a legitimate chance to run them down.

show4Hunts PromiseML 2/1

Hunts Promise (No. 4) is the third-ranked horse in the field at 74.61 and brings a useful form angle: he's placed in 4 of his last 6 starts and ranks third in recent race speed at 12.60 sec/furlong. The claiming price dropped from $5,000 to $4,000 today, which is a mild class relief angle. At 2/1 on the morning line he'll be well-backed, but his consistent recent form makes him the logical show anchor for trifectas.

We ran Race 4 10,000 times. Most wins:

9Elmore20%
4Hunts Promise17%
8New York New York15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Race 5

8:40 PM EST

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A deep 11-horse claiming sprint on dirt that's fairly competitive throughout the field — the top two horses on ratings, Bailamos and Erlan, are separated by about 5 points, while a cluster of horses with surface-specific credentials fills out the mid-tier, making pace and positioning key factors.

win10BailamosML 6/1

Bailamos (No. 10) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 82.71 and his dirt record is impressive — 7 wins from 21 starts on the surface with 11 total in-the-money finishes. He ranks third in recent race speed at 12.52 sec/furlong and Luis Negron, who gets the call, has posted a 24% win rate and placed in 55% of races over the past year. Our model gave Bailamos an 18.73% simulation win share. The one concern: he's stepping up $1,000 in claiming price from $4,000 to $5,000, which suggests connections feel confident but could mean he's attracting attention from other barns.

place2ErlanML 3/1

Erlan (No. 2) sits second in the ratings at 77.34 and leads this entire field in recent race speed at 12.46 sec/furlong — the fastest of anyone in the race. He's placed in each of his last 2 starts, and jockey Erik Barbaran continues to be one of the busiest and most effective riders on the Mountaineer circuit with a 25% win rate and 66% in-the-money over the past year. He's seven years old, which is a flag, but the recent form and speed numbers argue in his favor.

show7Poppy's PrideML 9/1

Poppy's Pride (No. 7) is the third-rated horse in the field at 58.85 and his overall dirt profile is extensive — 13 wins from 67 dirt starts with 37 in-the-money finishes, including multiple wins at today's exact distance. He ranks second in recent race speed at 12.47 sec/furlong, right behind Erlan. At 9/1 on the morning line, he offers genuine value as a show horse or exotic connector, though he is eight years old and that age concern is worth acknowledging.

We ran Race 5 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Erlan22%
10Bailamos19%
3Major Contender13%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 6

9:05 PM EST

Claiming · 2 fur · Dirt

A short and sharp 2-furlong dash on the dirt — the sprint distance within a sprint — where early speed is at a premium and form at this exact trip becomes the defining factor. Determined Love stands out as a heavy class advantage over the rest of the field on our ratings.

win3Determined LoveML 2/1

Determined Love (No. 3) is the top-rated horse in this race by a significant margin at 88.54 — a TrackWiz rating that leads the field. The speed credentials back it up: she ranks first in recent race speed at 11.18 sec/furlong, has placed in each of her last 7 consecutive races, and owns 24 wins from 56 dirt starts with 36 total in-the-money finishes. Trainer Dave Treharne earns a rare A grade. Our model gave her a 27.1% simulation win share — the highest in the field — and the data points here are as stacked as you'll see anywhere on the card today. She is nine years old, but the current form makes that concern secondary.

place5Dolce VeloceML 7/2

Dolce Veloce (No. 5) is the second-highest rated runner at 77.53 and ranks second in recent race speed at 11.38 sec/furlong — just a tick behind the top pick. She's placed in 4 of her last 6 starts, owns 8 wins from 36 dirt starts, and her 22% career win rate is healthy for this level. The main concern is a price increase in claiming from $5,000 to $7,500, but the form trajectory and speed numbers support her as a solid place option.

show2Can She ScootML 3/1

Can She Scoot (No. 2) is the third-ranked horse in the field at 76.05 and brings an enormous body of work on the dirt — 14 wins from 81 dirt starts and 51 total in-the-money finishes. She ranks third in recent race speed at 11.39 sec/furlong and jockey Ricardo Barrios has posted a 19% win rate over the past year. She is 12 years old, which is a real concern at this age, and the claiming price jumped from $5,000 to $7,500. But at 3/1 on the morning line, her consistency over a large sample makes her a reasonable exotic inclusion for the third spot.

We ran Race 6 10,000 times. Most wins:

3Determined Love27%
5Dolce Veloce18%
2Can She Scoot18%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 7

9:30 PM EST

Rating Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Khozan's Valentine has a commanding ratings advantage in this optional claiming sprint, sitting 9+ points ahead of the second-ranked Golden Candy in a field where the rest of the horses are clustered well below — the question is whether his age can be offset by dominant career numbers.

win4Khozan's ValentineML 2/1

Khozan's Valentine (No. 4) is the top-rated horse in the field at 88.54 — a full 9+ points above the second horse — and his numbers are exceptional: 16 wins from 61 dirt starts with 47 in-the-money finishes (a 70% clip), and he ranks second in recent race speed at 12.24 sec/furlong. Jockey Alexander Bendezu carries a 25% win rate and 64% in-the-money mark over the past year, one of the sharper numbers on today's card. Our simulations gave him the highest win share in the race at 27.53%. The one flag is age — he's nine years old — but the form and class metrics here are hard to dismiss.

place9Golden CandyML 4/1

Golden Candy (No. 9) grades out second in the field at 79.09 and leads this entire race in recent race speed at 11.97 sec/furlong — a meaningful edge in a 6-furlong sprint where early positioning matters. He's placed in each of his last 3 starts and brings 16 wins from 63 dirt starts. At 4/1 on the morning line, there's some value here if you want to use him in exactas underneath the top pick. Same age concern as the win pick — nine years old — but his current form cycle is active.

show8AlignML 12/1

Align (No. 8) is the third-rated horse in the field at 67.04 and ranks third in recent race speed at 12.34 sec/furlong, keeping him in the conversation from a pace standpoint. He's placed in 16 of 27 dirt starts with 5 wins and jockey Deshawn Parker has posted a 19% win rate and 56% in-the-money over the past year. At 12/1 on the morning line he's a genuine value play for the show spot in trifectas — our model puts him at a 9.73% simulation win share, which is fair at that price.

We ran Race 7 10,000 times. Most wins:

4Khozan's Valentine28%
9Golden Candy20%
2Main Line Cipher9.9%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 8

9:55 PM EST

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A deep 12-horse claiming route on the dirt where the top-rated horse is well separated from the field, but the second, third, and fourth spots are tightly bunched — meaning the exacta and trifecta could get interesting if the favorites are compromised by a contested pace.

win12Corona GrandeML 7/1

Corona Grande (No. 12) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 81.25 — the highest mark in this field by a meaningful gap — and ranks third in recent race speed at 13.24 sec/furlong. He's placed in each of his last 2 starts and owns 5 wins from 35 dirt starts with 18 total in-the-money finishes. Our model gave him a 14.96% simulation win share, the highest in the race. The concerns are real: he's six years old and coming back on only 14 days of rest when his form suggests he runs better with more time between starts. If he handles the quick turnaround, he's the logical top selection.

place6RackataptapML 6/1

Rackataptap (No. 6) is the second-ranked horse in the race at 73.44 and brings a strong local record — he's placed in 4 of 6 starts at Mountaineer and has hit the board in 4 of his last 6 overall. His trainer Juan Vazquez grades out at B+, and his consistent presence in the exotics makes him a natural place play. The age flag is there at eight years old, but the current form cycle shows he's fully live.

show8VerbierML 7/1

Verbier (No. 8) sits third in the ratings at 72.43 and ranks second in recent race speed at 13.07 sec/furlong — a useful edge in a mile race where you want horses capable of handling a full distance. He's stepping down in claiming price from $5,000 to $4,000, which is a mild class relief angle, and jockey Deshawn Parker has posted a 19% win rate and 56% in-the-money over the past year. At 7/1 on the morning line, he offers value as an exotic component if the top two hit the board.

We ran Race 8 10,000 times. Most wins:

2Penrod18%
9Hard Astray15%
12Corona Grande15%

Full sims: exotics, pace scenarios, 3D replay

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

Free with an account

Every race here is free today

This is our Track of the Day: a free account opens every race on the card, with the picks, the analysis and the sims.

Create a free account Sign in

Full Card Analysis

Unlock the full card and you get TrackWiz's complete analysis on all seven premium races, including pace scenario breakdowns for the dirt sprints in Races 4 through 7, where early speed horses and closers figure to be sorted out quickly on what projects as a fast surface. We'll walk through which of tonight's claiming drops look legitimate versus which are flags, and where the allowance fields in Races 2 and 3 present exotic ticket opportunities worth structuring.

Subscribers also get our multi-race wager strategies — exacta and trifecta construction, suggested Pick 3 and Pick 4 sequences, and our confidence tiers so you know which legs to single and which to spread. Determined Love in Race 6 carries a 27.1% sim win probability at just 2/1 — that kind of horse shapes the whole back half of the card. Don't build your tickets without seeing the full picture. See all plans at /pricing.

Premium Content

Get the Full Card Analysis

Unlock expert picks for every race, detailed speed figures, trainer angles, and our SmartBet recommendations.

View Plans Sign In

Tonight at Mountaineer, New Age Bad Girl is the free play to know — value price, strong jockey angle, and speed figures that hold up on the turf mile. The premium card adds seven more races with legitimate wager opportunities, including standout sim numbers on Determined Love and Khozan's Valentine that deserve a close look before you build any tickets. Full analysis is waiting for subscribers — good luck out there tonight.

← All Mountaineer picks & predictions