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Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — September 22, 2026

September 22, 20268 racesAll Mountaineer picks

This card ran on September 22, 2026.

Best bets at Mountaineer, September 22, 2026

Race 16El KozanML 5/17:00 PM EDT

Race 2 is free with an account, and the other 6 races are for members.

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It's a cool, cloudy Tuesday at Mountaineer Park — 58°F and the kind of overcast afternoon that keeps the turf playing honest. Eight races are on the board, and the card leans heavily on the grass early before shifting to the main track for a dirt-focused back half.

Three of the first four races go on the turf, which makes surface reading a priority today. The late-card dirt sprint sequence from Race 6 onward could set up nicely for some multi-race wagering opportunities if you're building tickets. There's genuine depth across the full card — a few morning-line favorites you can trust, and a couple of spots where the public price looks soft enough to attack.

We've broken the card into three free races up top for every reader, with full premium analysis covering the rest of the card for TrackWiz subscribers.

Best Bets

Race 1

7:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

A sprawling 14-horse turf claiming opener with legitimate firepower at the top — three horses rated 77-plus make this more competitive than the wide morning line spread suggests.

win6El KozanML 5/1

El Kozan (6) carries the highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.17 and heads to the gate at a juicy 5/1 morning line — that's the definition of value in a race where the oddsmakers have underrated him. Trainer Alexis Cordero-Lopez has Luis Negron in the irons, a solid combination that gives this horse every chance to fire his best effort. His average speed figure of 53 is right in line with the top contenders, and his career win percentage of 6% understates what our model sees as a horse trending upward on the turf. At 5/1, he's arguably the most attractive win bet on the board in this race.

place4Dembe ZumaML 2/1

Dembe Zuma (4) is the public's choice at 2/1 for good reason — a 17% career win rate and an 81.63 rating make him a legitimate threat. Trainer Jami C. Poole sends him out with Elijah Greenidge up, and this horse has the profile of a consistent performer who rarely runs a bad race. At 2/1, he's short for a win bet, but as a place horse in a full field, he's a solid anchor for exacta and trifecta combinations.

show12Doom LoopML 5/1

Doom Loop (12) at 5/1 morning line offers real trifecta appeal with a rating of 77.78 and a career win percentage of 18% — the highest in this field among the top-rated horses. DeShawn Parker gets the call for trainer Eddie Clouston, and while the speed figure of 51 is a tick below the top contenders, that win rate tells you this horse knows how to get into the money. He's a natural show anchor in a wide-open field.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 14 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

7:25 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

An allowance optional claiming test on the turf that sets up as a three-horse battle at the top, with Standard of Proof, Bosley, and Devil's Harvest all rated 77-plus and separating themselves clearly from the rest of the field.

win5Standard of ProofML 4/1

Standard of Proof (5) tops our TrackWiz ratings at 85.62 and goes postward at a generous 4/1 — this is the play. Francisco Garcia has the call for trainer Juan Pablo Silva, a barn that knows how to spot horses on the turf. A 13% career win rate in an allowance optional claiming spot is exactly the profile you want, and his average speed figure of 54 matches up well at seven furlongs on the grass. The morning line underestimates him relative to Devil's Harvest, and that gap in our model ratings tells the story.

place2BosleyML 5/1

Bosley (2) brings a 79.79 rating and a 17% career win percentage to the table — this is a horse with a serious winning habit. Kevin Gonzalez rides for Denis Cluley, and at 5/1 there's real value here beyond just the place spot. His average speed of 54 keeps him right in the mix pace-wise, and if the favorite stumbles, Bosley is the most likely horse to pounce.

show6Devil's HarvestML 2/1

Devil's Harvest (6) is the morning line favorite at 2/1 and rates out at 77.79, which is strong but trails our top two selections. Luis Negron rides for Kent Knudsen, and a 16% career win rate confirms this is a horse that competes. At 2/1, the value isn't exciting for a win bet, but as a show horse anchoring trifectas, he's nearly a lock to hit the board in a race where he belongs.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 12 runners

The early grass races are where we're starting our day. El Kozan (Race 1) and Standard of Proof (Race 2) both earn solid TrackWiz ratings on a seven-furlong turf layout that should reward horses with tactical speed — neither race figures to be a pace duel, so positioning off the break will matter. El Kozan at 5/1 on the morning line carries legitimate value if the turf plays fair under those clouds.

The standout of the free picks is Hot Cocoa in Race 3 — an 88.54 TrackWiz rating is the highest mark among our free selections today, and going a flat mile on the turf as the 2/1 morning-line choice in maiden claiming company, this is a horse we feel good about. When a horse tops the rating charts and lands in a manageable spot class-wise, that's a combination worth noting.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

7:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Maiden claiming turf going a mile — Hot Cocoa stands out as a rare morning-line favorite with a massive ratings edge, but two horses lurking in double digits on the morning line could complicate things in a field full of first-time winners.

win1Hot CocoaML 2/1

Hot Cocoa (1) is the standout in this maiden claiming field, posting an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — more than 12 points clear of the next contender. Erik Barbaran rides for trainer Jay P. Bernardini, a combination that knows how to get maidens to the winner's circle. Her average speed figure of 54 leads the competitive contenders, and at 2/1 on the morning line she's correctly installed as the favorite. In a field where no horse has broken their maiden, that kind of consistent speed output is a significant edge.

place3BuskerML 4/1

Busker (3) slots in as our place selection at 4/1 with a solid 76.62 rating — second best in the field and a legitimate threat to run Hot Cocoa down if anything goes sideways. Trainer S. Matthew Kintz sends him out with Norberto Arroyo Jr. aboard, and his average speed of 52 over the mile turf trip should keep him competitive throughout. At 4/1, he offers real value in exacta play.

show8Sperry ChaletML 10/1

Sperry Chalet (8) is the longshot angle in the exotics at 10/1, but a 72.72 rating tells you our model respects this horse more than the morning line does. DeShawn Parker picks up the mount for Kent Knudsen — that trainer-jockey combination has fire power in this circuit. An average speed of 50 is modest, but on a one-mile turf trip, closing ability matters more than pure speed figures, and this horse fits the profile of a sneaky show finisher.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 4

8:15 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A short-field maiden special weight on the dirt at 5½ furlongs — Xiao Long has a commanding ratings edge, but the 2/1 morning line on Big Notion and a sneaky 10/1 shot in Briarcliff make this more than a one-horse race.

win4Xiao LongML 3/1

Xiao Long (4) tops the field with an 87.08 TrackWiz rating and draws in at a fair 3/1 morning line — Bruce Destefano's charge looks like the class of this MSW sprint. Alejandro Gomez Jr. has the call, and this horse's average speed of 52 in maiden company on the dirt checks all the boxes for a short track like this. In a field where nobody has won before, the edge in our model rating is significant, and at 3/1 there's genuine win value here.

place1BriarcliffML 10/1

Briarcliff (1) is the TrackWiz value play in this race — a 74.68 rating at 10/1 morning line is a significant disconnect. Andrew Ramgeet rides for trainer Tina Ramgeet (a family barn combination worth noting), and an average speed of 53 is actually the top mark in this field. If the pace gets hot early, Briarcliff has the numbers to come running late and steal a place spot at a big price.

show7Big NotionML 2/1

Big Notion (7) comes in at 2/1 on the morning line for trainer Juan Pablo Silva — a barn that fires consistently at Mountaineer. Jose A. Leon gets the mount, and a 68.89 rating puts him solidly in the mix. His average speed of 54 leads all horses in this race, which could mean he controls the pace in a short field. If he's on the front end, he's dangerous to finish no worse than third.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 5

8:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A compact eight-horse dirt sprint at the claiming level where Tiz a Hero looks like a heavy play, but the pace scenario at 5½ furlongs creates chaos that opens the door for a few live longshot tickets.

win4Tiz a HeroML 2/1

Tiz a Hero (4) carries an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark in the race and tied for one of the best figures on today's full card. Trainer Juan Pablo Silva's barn is rolling, and Charle Oliveros is a capable pilot at this level. With an 11% career win rate, this horse knows how to cross the wire in front, and an average speed of 54 ties for the field's best mark on dirt. At 2/1 morning line, he's the correct favorite and a near-must-use in exactas.

place1Late Spring NightML 3/1

Late Spring Night (1) holds a 62.29 rating with a strong 12% career win percentage — the highest in the field among horses our model respects. Bailey Weatherly has the rail call for trainer Claudie Marshall Godsey Jr., and on a short 5½-furlong sprint the inside post is a genuine asset. An average speed of 53 keeps her competitive throughout, and at 3/1 there's real place value if she can sit just off the pace.

show7Friendly LucyML 10/1

Friendly Lucy (7) at 10/1 morning line is an interesting show price — a 53.46 rating and 11% career win rate say she belongs in this field. Kevin Gonzalez picks up the mount for Douglas S. Adams, and her average speed of 52 is consistent if unspectacular. In a claiming race at this distance, she's the type of honest performer who finds her way into the top three even when she's overlooked on the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 6

9:05 PM EDT

Rating Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Quistmer enters as a heavy morning line favorite at 7/5, but three horses rated in the 80s make this Rating Optional Claiming sprint far more nuanced than a chalk play — the pace could be the deciding factor.

win1QuistmerML 7/5

Quistmer (1) is the class of this field with an 86.38 TrackWiz rating and a career win percentage of 19% — one of the best win rates on today's card. Jose A. Leon rides for Juan Pablo Silva, a dominant trainer-jockey combination at Mountaineer this meet. At 7/5, the price is short, but when you're looking at a horse with a 19% career strike rate at six furlongs on the dirt, the chalk often deserves the chalk price.

place5Ninety TwoML 6/1

Ninety Two (5) is the value horse in this race — an 82.71 rating at 6/1 morning line is a significant overlay. The career win percentage of 27% is the highest in this field and tells you this is a horse that has been in the winner's circle consistently. Bailey Weatherly rides for John T. Brown, and at 6/1 she makes for a compelling exacta partner underneath Quistmer or as a standalone place bet.

show6OspreyML 3/1

Osprey (6) rates out at 81.52 and draws 3/1 morning line — Charle Oliveros takes the mount for Juan Pablo Silva in what amounts to a barn double-up in the same race. An 18% career win rate on dirt at this distance is legitimate, and his average speed of 53 matches the top of the field. As a show horse, he's nearly a lock in a race where the top three in our ratings are all clustered together.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

9:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Honestly headlines a seven-horse dirt sprint at the claiming level with the top TrackWiz rating, but Unstable Mabel's eye-popping 42% career win rate and Pasta Salad Rhonda's tight morning line make this a genuine three-way battle.

win5HonestlyML 7/2

Honestly (5) tops the field with an 86.35 TrackWiz rating and goes off at 7/2 morning line — that's a nice spot between the heavy favorite and the overlays. Bailey Weatherly gets the call for trainer Donald T. Blankenship, and an average speed of 53 on six furlongs of Mountaineer dirt is right in the pocket. With an 11% career win rate that doesn't fully reflect what our model sees, this horse looks poised to outrun her odds.

place6Pasta Salad RhondaML 5/2

Pasta Salad Rhonda (6) at 5/2 is the logical place horse — a 78.07 rating and 11% career win percentage for trainer Jabdiel Castillo's barn. DeShawn Parker is a reliable pilot at this circuit, and her average speed of 52 is consistent enough to be a factor throughout. If the pace gets hot upfront, she could slide right into the silver spot.

show4Divine CrossML 8/1

Divine Cross (4) at 8/1 morning line with a 71.44 rating is our show anchor and a legitimate trifecta play at a price. A 25% career win rate is actually the second highest in this field — this horse gets to the winner's circle, and when she doesn't win she often runs second or third. Ricardo Barrios rides for Dave Treharne, and at 8/1 she's worth putting underneath Honestly and Pasta Salad Rhonda in the exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 8

9:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The nightcap is a full 13-horse claiming field at six furlongs on dirt — Hero's Man and Class Actor both rate highly and both draw 2/1 on the morning line, setting up a compelling race-within-a-race at the top of the card.

win12Hero's ManML 2/1

Hero's Man (12) tops the entire race with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and brings a 26% career win percentage to the gate — numbers that demand attention. Ricardo Barrios picks up the mount for trainer Dave Treharne, and an average speed of 53 in a claiming field at six furlongs puts him squarely in the pace conversation. At 2/1 co-morning line, he's correctly priced but still the right horse to anchor your win tickets in a 13-horse field.

place6Class ActorML 2/1

Class Actor (6) rates out at 80.24 with a matching 22% career win percentage — this is a horse that runs well consistently. Elijah Greenidge rides for Jami C. Poole, a trainer-jockey combo that has shown up throughout today's card, and an average speed of 54 leads all horses in this race. At 2/1 he's co-favored, and while he trails Hero's Man in our model, he's well-positioned to land in the exacta.

show8BailamosML 4/1

Bailamos (8) at 4/1 morning line is the third horse in our trifecta sequence — a 77.76 rating and a 26% career win rate for trainer Jay P. Bernardini's barn make him a legitimate threat. Luis Negron rides, and his average speed of 53 keeps him in contention throughout the six-furlong trip. In a big field like this, a horse with a 26% win rate is a natural show anchor who will find his way into the top three more often than not.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 13 runners

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Bottom line: Hot Cocoa is our marquee free play of the day, El Kozan offers the best value price among the early turf picks, and the dirt sprint back-half of this card is loaded with wagering angles for premium readers. It's a workmanlike Tuesday card at Mountaineer — but the right spots are there if you know where to look. Full breakdowns, pace scenarios, and ticket structures are waiting for subscribers.

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