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Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — September 21, 2026

September 21, 20268 racesAll Mountaineer picks

It's a wet one at Mountaineer today. Rain is falling and temperatures are sitting at a cool 60°F, which means every surface call matters — especially with three of the first four races carded on the turf. Whether that grass gets taken off the program or plays soft and cuppy, the conditions are going to separate the pretenders from the contenders in a hurry.

Eight races are on the board, mixing maiden specials, allowance horses, and a healthy slate of claimers across both turf and dirt. TrackWiz analysis has identified some sharp plays throughout the card — three of them available to all readers, five more waiting behind the premium curtain.

The early turf races are the storyline here. Keep an eye on any surface switches if the stewards pull the grass — those changes can scramble morning lines and create real value for bettors who are paying attention.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 7 fur · Turf

A wide-open maiden field on the turf with 14 runners and zero career wins among them, but TrackWiz ratings create a clear two-horse class advantage at the top — this one sets up as a race between the public choice and a couple of overlays.

win3OcataML 2/1

Ocata draws the morning-line favorite billing at 2/1 and backs it up with the field's highest TrackWiz rating at 76.8 — a significant gap over the rest. Trained by Denis Cluley, Kevin Gonzalez gets the call from post 3, a manageable spot in a 14-horse turf sprint. With an average speed figure of 51 matching several rivals but a ratings edge that's hard to dismiss, Ocata looks like the most complete profile in this maiden field.

place7All Roads to DenisML 7/1

All Roads to Denis is the most intriguing horse underneath at 7/1 on the morning line, posting a rating of 73.91 — second-best in the field and within striking distance of the top pick. Jockey Erik Barbaran has been active at Mountaineer, and trainer Angelo G. Jackson sending this one out at that price makes it a legitimate place target in a multirace sequence.

show6They Not Like UsML 8/1

They Not Like Us comes in at 8/1 with a solid 59.74 rating and an average speed figure of 50 — right in the mix with the bulk of this field. Ricardo Barrios takes the mount, and for exotic players looking to round out a trifecta in a maiden turf sprint where chaos is always possible, this one represents real value at that morning-line price.

Race 2

11:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

A turf claiming sprint featuring genuine form separation at the top, where three horses rate above 77 on our model but the morning-line favorite isn't the one we like best — creating potential value for sharp bettors.

win11My Two Aunt JoansML 5/1

My Two Aunt Joans earns the top spot in our ratings at 84.17 despite going off at 5/1 on the morning line — that gap between market price and model grade is exactly the kind of spot TrackWiz analysis targets. Trainer Alysha Robillard sends her out with a 17% career win rate as a horse, and Luis Tapara, who also rides the morning-line favorite in this race, takes the call. The 52 average speed figure is competitive on this turf sprint, and the overall profile grades out as the class of the field.

place12BreezerML 3/1

Breezer posts the second-best rating in the field at 80.0 and carries a better average speed figure of 54, which stands out in a 7-furlong turf race where sustainable pace matters. Trainer Jeff Fletcher also saddles Centsofwander, giving connections a strong two-pronged attack, and Erik Barbaran is a capable pilot in this spot. At 3/1, Breezer likely ends up near the bottom of the win pool but is a solid anchor in place and exacta plays.

show3CentsofwanderML 4/1

Centsofwander checks in with a 77.54 rating and an 18% career win rate — above the field average — while Yuri Yaranga takes the mount for the Jeff Fletcher barn. The 4/1 morning line seems fair but the combination of a proven trainer, a solid win percentage, and a rating above the midfield tier makes this one a reliable show ticket and a useful exacta piece.

Race 3

11:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 5 fur · Turf

A turf allowance sprint at five furlongs where one horse stands well clear on the TrackWiz ratings, though a pair of double-digit morning-line prices in the top three picks signals that the race underneath the favorite could be wide open.

win7Emily's JoyML 2/1

Emily's Joy is the standout in this field with a rating of 88.54 — the highest mark by more than 13 points over the next-best horse — and she pairs that with a 56 average speed figure, tied for tops in the field. Luis Alberto Batista gets the mount for trainer Israel Acevedo, who also fields The Little Sultana in this race, and the 2/1 morning line reflects the public's recognition of her class edge. In a tight 5-furlong turf sprint where early pace and position matter, a horse with this kind of speed-figure profile is hard to bet against.

place6Fair TradeML 7/1

Fair Trade is an interesting underneath play at 7/1 — the rating of 75.99 is third in the field and the 53 speed figure is competitive, but what stands out is a 10% career win rate that actually understates how consistently this horse has hit the board. Trainer Jami C. Poole puts Elijah Greenidge up, and at that morning-line price, Fair Trade is a legitimate value play in the place position and an attractive exacta partner.

show12The Little SultanaML 9/2

The Little Sultana carries a 74.96 rating and the second-highest career win percentage in this field at 26% — that's a meaningful number in an allowance turf sprint at this level. Trainer Israel Acevedo doubles up in this race alongside Emily's Joy, and Deshawn L. Parker gets the call. At 9/2 on the morning line, she may not offer huge overlay value to win, but she's a reliable show option and a logical trifecta piece.

Our three free best bets span the opening allowance and claiming turf races, and there's a common thread running through all of them: class and consistency on wet-influenced ground. Ocata (Race 1, 2/1 ML) kicks things off in the maiden special weight at 7 furlongs, while My Two Aunt Joans (Race 2, 5/1 ML) offers legitimate value in the claiming ranks at the same trip — a sneaky price if the morning line holds. Then Emily's Joy (Race 3, 2/1 ML) steps into the allowance sprint at 5 furlongs with the highest TrackWiz rating of the free trio at 88.54, making her our strongest free play of the afternoon.

With the rain in play, watch how the turf is labeled before post time. Soft or yielding ground tends to favor horses with European-style pedigrees or proven wet-turf form — factors baked right into our ratings. All three of these selections hold up well under that lens.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:15 AM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

First dirt race of the card and it's a maiden special weight at 5½ furlongs — a tricky format where first-time starters and lightly-raced horses with limited data can flummox even the sharpest handicappers, though our model finds a pair of horses with legitimate separation at the top.

win6No SolutionML 2/1

No Solution is our top-rated horse in this field at 66.33 and draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 — that alignment of model grade and market consensus adds conviction. Rishawn Blanche gets the mount for trainer Kevin Monday, and with a 53 average speed figure in a field where several rivals either have no speed data or haven't shown strong numbers, No Solution's profile is the clearest in the race. Maiden dirt sprints can be chaotic, but having a legitimately top-rated horse also backed by the market is a comfortable position.

place7RizzML 7/1

Rizz rates at 61.38 — the second-best mark in the field — and draws post 7 with Jose A. Bracho up for trainer Louis V. Ruberto. The 54 average speed figure is among the better numbers in this field, and at 7/1 on the morning line, Rizz offers real exacta and place value for players willing to take a stand against the favorite at low odds. A horse that rates this well as a maiden at 7/1 is worth a serious look in the exotics.

show1ChizzyML 12/1

Chizzy rounds out our top three at 61.1 and stands out with a 56 average speed figure — the highest in the field — despite going off at 12/1 on the morning line. Ricardo Barrios handles the mount for Virginia Demczyk, and the disconnect between the speed figure, the rating, and the public price is the kind of thing TrackWiz was built to surface. In a maiden race with significant uncertainty, Chizzy is a legitimate show play and a value piece in trifectas.

Race 5

12:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 2 fur · Dirt

A short 2-furlong dirt claiming sprint — as pure a speed scenario as you'll see on any card — where gate-to-wire ability is everything and our model identifies a dominant top two with separation from the rest of the field.

win4Dolce VeloceML 2/1

Dolce Veloce sits atop the TrackWiz ratings at 86.38 and goes off as the morning-line favorite at 2/1, pairing model confidence with market consensus. Kevin Gonzalez takes the call for trainer Juan Raul Aguirre, and with a 22% career win rate, this horse knows how to reach the winner's circle. In a 2-furlong sprint, tactical position out of the gate is critical, and a horse with this ratings profile should be factored into every ticket.

place7Cash CustomerML 4/1

Cash Customer is right on the heels of the top pick with a rating of 85.62 and a career win rate of 29% — the highest in this field and a number that commands attention in a short sprint where proven winners have a real edge. Ricardo Barrios gets the mount for Danny R. Bird, and at 4/1 on the morning line, Cash Customer offers genuine place value if Dolce Veloce gets the win. These two together in exactas and quinellas are the backbone of our ticket in Race 5.

show2Can She ScootML 5/1

Can She Scoot comes in at 5/1 with a solid 67.52 rating and a 21% career win rate — both numbers well above the field average for the horses outside the top two. Luis Alberto Batista handles the ride for Shane M. Spiess, and while no average speed figure is available to compare on the figures side, the win percentage and rating make this a legitimate show option and a logical trifecta inclusion.

Race 6

1:05 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Six furlongs on the Mountaineer dirt in a claiming field where Spice Bag rates as a clear class standout by our model, though the morning-line favorite and a pair of horses with high win percentages could make things interesting in the stretch.

win5Spice BagML 3/1

Spice Bag tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 — the highest number in this claiming field by a significant margin — while going off at 3/1 on the morning line, a price that actually represents some value relative to the rating. Alexander Chavez takes the mount for trainer Shane Meyers, and the 53 average speed figure is competitive in this group. When a horse rates this cleanly and isn't hammered down to short odds, that's an angle worth pressing.

place3Shore TimeML 10/1

Shore Time is an intriguing underneath play at 10/1 morning line despite carrying the second-best rating in the field at 72.9. Trainer Juan C. Vazquez runs both Shore Time and Sonny the Great in this race, giving connections a dual shot, and Luis Negron gets the assignment here. A horse rated 72.9 going off at double-digit odds in a claiming sprint is a potential overlay, and Shore Time looks like a live place and exacta candidate that the public may underestimate.

show7Red FernML 7/1

Red Fern posts a 65.7 rating and a 15% career win rate with Luis Alberto Batista aboard for trainer Eddie Clouston. At 7/1 on the morning line, the value case is real — the rating is solidly in the top half of this field and the 52 speed figure is respectable at this distance. As a show play and a piece of the trifecta underneath Spice Bag, Red Fern earns a spot on the ticket.

Race 7

1:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile dirt claiming test that sets up as one of the most lopsided on the card by ratings, with one horse carrying a clear model edge — but the distance and pace scenario at a mile leave room for the race to shape differently than a sprint.

win7El GutyML 2/1

El Guty tops this field with a rating of 88.54 — matching the highest number we've seen on today's card — and goes off at just 2/1 on the morning line, confirming the public sees it too. Brandon Tapara rides for trainer Jay P. Bernardini, who is one of the more active conditioners on this Mountaineer program, and an 18% career win rate provides a solid foundation. At a mile, pace scenario matters, and a horse this well-graded by our model is the anchor of every ticket in Race 7.

place8KhozandoML 10/1

Khozando is the value play in this race at 10/1 morning line, carrying a rating of 67.7 and a 20% career win rate — the second-best win percentage in the field. Yuri Yaranga gets the mount for trainer Jeff Fletcher, and at that price, a horse with a legit win rate and a solid rating offers real overlay potential in the place and exacta pools. Don't sleep on this one as an El Guty partner in the exacta.

show4Unpredictable BayML 3/1

Unpredictable Bay rates at 61.31 with a 14% career win rate and draws the 3/1 morning line — Elijah Greenidge rides for trainer Stephani Norris. While the rating places this one third in the field, the public price at 3/1 may limit win overlay value, but as a show anchor or trifecta piece behind a dominant top two, Unpredictable Bay is a logical inclusion on any structured ticket.

Race 8

1:55 AM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

The deepest field on the card with 11 runners in a 5½-furlong dirt claiming sprint, and TrackWiz ratings stack up four horses within a tight 84-75 band at the top — this one could come down to post position, pace setup, and who gets the cleanest trip.

win9ChristensenML 5/1

Christensen tops the ratings at 84.17 and is priced at 5/1 on the morning line — a meaningful edge over Alfie Solomons, who draws the 2/1 chalk, despite rating lower at 83.04. Michael Y. Pagan takes the mount for trainer Alexis Cordero-Lopez, and a 54 average speed figure is among the better numbers in the field. When our top-rated horse in a claiming sprint is going off at 5/1 while a lower-rated rival gets hammered, that's the kind of edges-in-the-market angle that separates good plays from average ones.

place6Alfie SolomonsML 2/1

Alfie Solomons rates at 83.04 — just a tick below Christensen — and draws the morning-line favoritism at 2/1 with Kevin Gonzalez up for trainer Crystal Richison. A 15% career win rate is respectable at this level, and the 53 average speed figure is consistent with this distance. Even as the second pick on our card, Alfie Solomons is a reliable place and exacta piece, particularly if the favorite on the morning line shows up as expected and this one fills second.

show8Poppy's PrideML 4/1

Poppy's Pride rounds out our top three at 82.12 — still within two points of the top — and goes off at 4/1 morning line with Maikol Vilchez aboard for trainer Robert S. Scallan. The 17% career win rate is solid and the 53 average speed figure keeps this one competitive in a race where the top four are genuinely close. In a field this deep, Poppy's Pride is an essential trifecta piece and worth a show bet for risk-conscious players.

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Mountaineer in the rain on a Monday — it's exactly the kind of card where sharp prep separates the cashes from the near-misses. Lead with Emily's Joy as your top free play, take a long look at My Two Aunt Joans for value, and let Ocata get you started on the right foot in Race 1. For pace angles, exotic strategies, and the full five-race premium breakdown including El Guty and Spice Bag, subscribers have everything they need waiting at TrackWiz Premium. Good luck out there — watch the weather board and bet smart.

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