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Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — July 26, 2026

July 26, 20268 racesAll Mountaineer picks

This card ran on July 26, 2026.

Best bets at Mountaineer, July 26, 2026

Race 17Lil Red BeaudetteML 5/17:00 PM EDT

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Rain is falling at Mountaineer this Sunday, and with temperatures sitting at a muggy 76°F, that wet weather is the story of the day. The bulk of today's eight-race card is carded on the turf, and a softening course can flip the form book on its head — horses that love give underfoot will move up, while dry-ground specialists may struggle to replicate their best numbers.

We've got a full eight races to dig through, mixing allowance company, claiming races, and a starter optional claiming thrown in for good measure. Three of those races are free for every TrackWiz reader, with the remaining five sitting behind the premium curtain. There's legitimate value to be found across this card if you know where to look — and that's exactly what we're here to do.

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Race 1

7:00 PM EDT

Allowance · 7 1/2 fur · Turf

A turf allowance with a clear class standout at the top, but the morning line favorite isn't actually the highest-rated horse — setting up a potential overlay situation in the win spot.

win7Lil Red BeaudetteML 5/1

Lil Red Beaudette comes in as our top-rated horse in the field at 84.17 and carries an impressive 33% career win rate — that's elite by any measure at this level. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini has double representation in this race, which speaks to stable confidence, and the 5/1 morning line on a horse with this profile represents genuine value. The 7 1/2 furlong turf trip is a mid-range distance that should suit a horse capable of rating off the pace before unleashing, and that average speed figure of 54 ties for the field's best.

place4Royal SaluteML 3/1

Royal Salute is the morning line favorite at 3/1 and backs it up with a TrackWiz rating of 78.29, second-best in the field. The 54 average speed figure matches the top of the field, and trainer Jay P. Bernardini — who also saddles the win pick — clearly has this barn in sharp form right now. A 9% career win rate may look modest, but in a turf allowance this competitive, hitting the board consistently is what matters.

show1MitochondriaML 8/1

Mitochondria is our show selection at 8/1 morning line, offering real overlay potential in the exotics. The 68.97 TrackWiz rating is third-best in this field, and a 25% career win rate is among the highest in the race — this horse knows how to finish. Jockey Deshawn L. Parker gets the call, and at a price, Mitochondria is exactly the type you want anchoring a trifecta underneath.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

7:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A turf mile claimer where the highest-rated horse goes off at 6/1 — significantly longer than the morning line favorite — creating a juicy overlay scenario if the TrackWiz numbers hold up.

win6Photo FinishML 6/1

Photo Finish is the standout in our TrackWiz analysis with an 82.71 rating, yet the morning line has this horse at 6/1 — well behind the chalk. That's the kind of disconnect that makes for a strong value play. A 25% career win rate ties for the field-best alongside stablemate No Napping, and trainer Jay P. Bernardini lands his third horse in today's card, suggesting the barn is firing on all cylinders. At 6/1, if Photo Finish runs to its rating, you're looking at a very healthy return.

place8Super Honey TimberML 5/1

Super Honey Timber brings a 33% career win rate — the best in this field — alongside a 79.43 TrackWiz rating that slots in comfortably behind only Photo Finish. The 5/1 morning line is reasonable for a horse with that kind of strike rate, and trainer Tina Ramgeet has the experience to place horses where they can compete. This is a horse that consistently finds the winner's circle, making it a safe place bet in a turf claimer.

show3Ipanema PrincessML 3/1

Ipanema Princess opens at 3/1 on the morning line, which suggests the public will back this horse heavily, but our rating of 64.19 makes the show spot the most comfortable landing zone. Trainer Pavel Matejka gets Yuri Yaranga in the irons, a pairing worth watching, and a 53 average speed figure is right in line with the pace of this field. In a 10-horse turf mile, a horse going off near the top of the board with legitimate ratings backing it up is a solid exotics anchor.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

The first three races on today's card are unlocked for everyone, and they give us a solid feel for what kind of day this is shaping up to be. All three are carded on the turf, so the rain-affected going is the common thread tying them together. Look for horses with prior form on softer ground or those with breeding that suggests they'll handle the conditions — that's the lens our TrackWiz analysis is using across Races 1 through 3.

Sperry Chalet stands out as the strongest free-race selection, posting a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 in the Race 3 maiden claiming mile and drawing morning-line favoritism at 2/1 — that's respect from the oddsmakers, and our numbers back it up. Photo Finish (Race 2, 6/1 ML) is worth monitoring as a potential value overlay, while Lil Red Beaudette opens Race 1 at a juicy 5/1. Today's free picks are a great starting point, but there's considerably more on the back half of this card.

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Race 3

7:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

Maiden claimers on the turf are notoriously tricky — nobody has won before — but two horses separate from the pack on ratings and create a clear top pair in an otherwise wide-open field.

win5Sperry ChaletML 2/1

Sperry Chalet is the 2/1 morning line choice and the top-rated horse in the field at 88.54 — a significant gap over the second-best runner. Trainer Kent Knudsen puts Luis Negron in the irons, a straightforward booking that signals confidence. In maiden claiming company, pace shape matters enormously, and a horse this far ahead on ratings should be able to dictate terms over one mile of turf. At 2/1, this is as close to a 'bet-down' as you'll find in maiden ranks.

place6Crafty LawyerML 5/2

Crafty Lawyer is right there behind Sperry Chalet at an 80.52 rating and goes off at 5/2 morning line — suggesting the crowd may make this a head-to-head battle at the top. Trainer Eddie Clouston sends out Luis Alberto Batista, and the gap between these two horses and the rest of the field is substantial enough that keying them on top of each other in exactas makes a lot of sense. A maiden that can post an 80+ TrackWiz rating deserves serious respect.

show7Pivot To The PowerML 5/1

Pivot To The Power at 5/1 is the third horse in our sequence and represents a meaningful step down from the top two at 69.17, but is still comfortably clear of the rest. Trainer Eric R. Reed is an experienced conditioner, and Charle Oliveros is a capable rider who can nurse a maiden home on the turf. At 5/1 in a maiden claimer, this is a live show horse that fills out trifecta tickets nicely.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 4

8:15 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

An 11-horse turf claimer at 7 furlongs where the pace figures to be contested and the betting favorite doesn't lead on ratings — sharp money could shift toward a better-priced horse.

win4El KozanML 4/1

El Kozan tops the TrackWiz ratings in this field at 85.62 and goes off at a reasonable 4/1 morning line — not as generous as we'd like, but the value is real given the top ranking. Trainer Alexis Cordero-Lopez has two runners in this race, and putting Yuri Yaranga — scratch that — Luis Alberto Batista on El Kozan suggests this is the barn's first string. An 8% career win rate in a 54-average-speed-figure profile tells us this horse is competitive but needs things to set up right; at 7 furlongs on turf, the distance should be forgiving enough for a closer to find clear running.

place6Mr BusinessML 2/1

Mr Business opens as the 2/1 morning line choice, and while our rating of 76.59 puts it behind El Kozan, a 9% career win rate and consistent 53 average speed figure make this a credible foil. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini has been prominent throughout today's card, and Brandon Tapara keeps the mount — continuity matters. At 2/1, the win price won't dazzle, but a place wager on Mr Business in a field this size offers solid security.

show10Fernando's GoldML 6/1

Fernando's Gold at 6/1 is our show pick and brings a 64.18 rating that ranks third in this competitive field. A 12% career win rate is respectable for a claimer, and trainer Geoffrey A. Dixon sends Kevin Gonzalez to the plate. With 11 horses in the field on a 7-furlong turf course, traffic can be a factor — Fernando's Gold at 6/1 in the exotics offers a strong price-to-probability ratio for the third slot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 5

8:40 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A sprawling 13-horse turf sprint at 5 furlongs where pace will be frenetic — the horse that finds the cleanest trip in a big field often wins, and our top pick has the ratings edge to capitalize.

win11How About ItML 3/1

How About It is the clear top selection at 87.08 TrackWiz rating, sitting comfortably above the rest of this 13-horse field. The 3/1 morning line is fair given the competition, and trainer Jay P. Bernardini — who has been dominant throughout this card — hands the reins to Brandon Tapara, a combination that has clicked repeatedly today. A 54 average speed figure and a 5% career win rate may look modest, but the raw rating says this horse is performing better than the record suggests — a prime breakout spot.

place4My BalboaML 5/1

My Balboa at 5/1 is the most intriguing value play in this race, combining a 78.40 TrackWiz rating with a 21% career win rate — the second-highest strike rate in the field. Trainer Jennifer A. Johnson and jockey Kevin Gonzalez form a solid pairing, and that 55 average speed figure is among the top marks on the board. At 5/1 morning line for a horse with this kind of real-world win percentage, the place return could be very satisfying.

show8Golden CookieML 4/1

Golden Cookie opens at 4/1 and earns a 71.28 TrackWiz rating, good for third in this large field. The 55 average speed figure ties with the top runners, and trainer Krista Nicole Hetrick has Luis Alberto Batista up — a capable booking for a horse that needs to navigate a 13-horse turf sprint cleanly. At 4/1, Golden Cookie is a legitimate show-price target and a natural fit in trifecta combinations underneath the top two.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 13 runners

Race 6

9:05 PM EDT

Claiming · 2 fur · Dirt

A short 2-furlong dirt sprint is all about gate speed and raw ability — and this seven-horse field has a clear standout that will need to be beat, with a closely-packed trio right behind.

win5Determined LoveML 8/5

Determined Love enters as our top-rated horse at 89.12 and opens as the 8/5 morning line choice — the crowd agrees with the TrackWiz model on this one. A 35% career win rate is exceptional and the highest in this field by a significant margin, which tells you this is a horse that simply wins races at a high clip. Trainer Dave Treharne has Luis Alberto Batista in the irons, a confident booking, and in a 2-furlong dirt sprint, you need a horse who can explode out of the gate — Determined Love's profile screams exactly that.

place2Miss NuckolsML 2/1

Miss Nuckols at 2/1 has the second-best TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.60 and a stellar 27% career win rate — only Determined Love tops both of those marks. Trainer Claudie Marshall Godsey Jr. sends Ricardo Barrios to the gate, and in a race this short, the top two horses in any field tend to dominate. Miss Nuckols is the clear second-choice play for exacta and place wagering.

show4Can She ScootML 3/1

Can She Scoot opens at 3/1 with a 68.52 TrackWiz rating and a strong 22% career win rate — tied for second in the field on that metric. Trainer Shane M. Spiess puts Yuri Yaranga aboard, and the name itself suggests this is a horse bred for a quick sprint. At 3/1 in a 7-horse field, the show payoff won't be huge, but Can She Scoot is a reliable third-wheel for trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 7

9:30 PM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This starter optional claiming at 6 furlongs features two horses in the 88-range on our ratings — a rare situation where the top two are nearly inseparable on paper, making exacta combinations the smart play.

win4French OnionML 2/1

French Onion heads into this race with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating and a jaw-dropping 47% career win rate — by far the highest in this field and one of the more impressive marks you'll see on any card. Trainer Juan Pablo Silva puts Luis Negron in the irons, and at 2/1 morning line, the public has clearly already identified this horse as the one to beat. In a 6-furlong dirt sprint, a horse with a nearly coin-flip win rate should be respected at any price.

place3Hero's ManML 4/1

Hero's Man is separated from French Onion by a razor-thin margin — 84.70 versus 88.54 — and that closeness on the ratings scale makes the place spot very attractive at 4/1. Trainer Dave Treharne, who also conditions Determined Love in Race 6, clearly has horses ready to run, and Ricardo Barrios gets the call here. A 27% career win rate is legitimate, and at 4/1, the place return on Hero's Man could be one of the better prices on the board tonight.

show8Speighty WarML 5/1

Speighty War rounds out our sequence at 5/1 with a 75.82 TrackWiz rating and a 21% career win rate. Trainer Terry J. Crago sends Kevin Gonzalez aboard, and that 53 average speed figure is consistent with what the pace of this race should look like. As the third-best rated horse in an eight-horse field, Speighty War is a natural trifecta inclusion — the 5/1 morning line adds enough sweetener to make it worthwhile in the bottom slot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 8 runners

Race 8

9:55 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Dirt

A deep 10-horse dirt sprint at 5 furlongs where the top three on our ratings are remarkably close together — this one could come down to pace scenario and who gets the cleanest trip out of a big field.

win1El CardinalML 4/1

El Cardinal tops this 10-horse field with an 84.94 TrackWiz rating and a 17% career win rate that's respectable for a claimer at this level. Trainer Jami C. Poole sends Elijah Greenidge to the gate from the rail post — post position 1 in a 5-furlong sprint can be a double-edged sword, but a horse this highly rated should be able to get position early. At 4/1 morning line, El Cardinal offers solid value relative to the top rating, and this is a horse that figures to be forwardly placed from the break.

place3Courthouse CoveML 3/1

Courthouse Cove comes in right behind at 83.67 and is actually the morning line second-choice at 3/1 — so the crowd is tracking closely with our model on this one. Trainer Christi Lynn Esposito has Bailey Weatherly in the irons, and a 15% career win rate is consistent for a horse competing at this claiming level. The near-identical ratings between El Cardinal and Courthouse Cove make exacta wagering in both directions a reasonable structure here.

show7Joe PhillipsML 6/1

Joe Phillips at 6/1 morning line slots in third on our ratings at 82.71 — a virtual dead heat with the top two at this level. Trainer Juan Pablo Silva, who also conditions French Onion in Race 7, is having a productive card, and Maikol Vilchez picks up the mount. A 7% career win rate is modest, but the raw TrackWiz number says the form is there — at 6/1, Joe Phillips is exactly the type of overlay that pays off in trifectas when the top two hold their positions.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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A wet, turf-heavy Sunday at Mountaineer with eight races and genuine form questions up and down the card — this is exactly the kind of day where sharp handicapping pays off. Start with Sperry Chalet in Race 3 as the top free-race selection, keep an eye on the soft-course angles throughout, and let our full premium breakdown guide you through the back end of the card. Good luck out there.

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