Daily Picks

Mountaineer Picks & Predictions — July 13, 2026

Monday, July 13, 20268 racesMountaineer

It's a beautiful Monday at Mountaineer — clear skies, 84°F, and a firm, fast surface that should play right into the hands of horses with early speed. Eight races are on the board today, mixing claiming company with a solid allowance spot, and the turf card gets a workout with a pair of grass routes in the middle of the afternoon.

Conditions are about as good as it gets at Mountaineer this time of year. The heat shouldn't be a factor, and with no rain in the picture, expect consistent footing all day — which means speed figures from recent dirt starts will translate cleanly. That's exactly the kind of day where doing your homework pays off.

Best Bets

Race 1

11:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A claiming sprint with a clear TrackWiz ratings standout at the top, but a wide morning-line spread suggests the crowd sees more chaos than the numbers do.

win7Scream MachineML 2/1

Scream Machine is the easy top choice here, and the numbers back it up emphatically — a TrackWiz rating of 88.54 towers over the field and a 35% career win rate is elite for this level. Trainer Eddie Clouston sends this one out with jockey Luis Alberto Batista, a pairing worth noting in a 5.5-furlong dirt sprint where gate speed matters. At 2/1 on the morning line, you're not getting a gift price, but you're also not being asked to lay heavy chalk on a horse that genuinely dominates its competition on paper.

place4Romantic JewelML 9/2

Romantic Jewel checks in with the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 72.94, which is a significant cushion over the rest of the horses outside the top two. Trainer John T. Brown saddles Bailey Weatherly, and while the 6% career win rate looks modest, the underlying rating suggests this horse is better than its win record implies — possibly a horse that finds the board more often than it tops it.

show1Strand of GoldML 6/1

Strand of Gold at 6/1 represents solid show-ticket value with a 50.93 TrackWiz rating and a 14% career win clip that puts it comfortably in the competitive tier of this field. Jockey Brandon Tapara takes the rail post, and in a sprint like this, breaking cleanly from the 1-hole can set up a stalking trip that lands a horse on the podium even if the top two run away from the field.

Race 2

11:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 7 fur · Turf

A full field of thirteen goes 7 furlongs on the turf, with a legitimate standout rating-wise but enough contenders in the 55-65 range to make the exacta interesting.

win2MisterchilliwilliML 4/1

Misterchilliwilli enters with a 85.62 TrackWiz rating and the highest average speed figure in the field at 54 — a meaningful edge on a turf route where sustaining pace matters. The 29% career win rate is genuinely strong, and trainer Jeff Fletcher puts up Yuri Yaranga in the irons. Priced at 4/1 on the morning line, this is one of those spots where the public underlay on paper actually reflects fair value rather than an overbet favorite.

place6Unpredictable BayML 9/2

Unpredictable Bay is the pace angle here — posting the highest average speed figure in the field at 55 and carrying a 63.69 TrackWiz rating that puts this runner squarely in the hunt. Trainer Stephani Norris sends Elijah Greenidge out from the 6-post, a middle draw that works well on turf where avoiding early traffic is crucial. At 9/2, there's real money to be made if this one gets a clean trip and sits close to the pace.

show11Golden BanditML 3/1

Golden Bandit rounds out the ticket at 3/1 with a 63.29 rating and a 20% career win percentage that suggests this horse competes consistently at this level. Trainer Juan Pablo Silva with Luis Negron is a combo to watch at Mountaineer, and the 11-post draw, while wide, can actually be a benefit on turf when horses fan out and run their own race.

Race 3

11:50 PM EDT

Allowance · 1 mi · Turf

An allowance mile on the turf features a pair of horses with 84+ TrackWiz ratings, setting up what looks like a two-horse duel with a genuine battle for the top spot.

win6Royal SaluteML 3/1

Royal Salute posts the highest rating in the field at 86.51 and backs it up with the best average speed figure at 54, which is a genuine differentiator in an allowance grass mile. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini, who also saddles Judge Rules in this race, puts Erik Barbaran up from the 6-post — a comfortable middle draw for a mile turf route. The 3/1 morning line is reasonable for a horse whose numbers say it belongs at the front of this field.

place3KatmanduML 5/1

Katmandu sits just a tick behind at 84.17 and brings a 22% career win rate that is the best of any horse near the top of the TrackWiz rankings here. Trainer Jeff C. Runco has Luis Alberto Batista in the irons, and while the 5/1 morning line suggests some skepticism from the oddsmakers, the underlying rating says this horse is a genuine threat to hit the board and challenge for the win.

show9Blanches MuleML 4/1

Blanches Mule offers the best value in the show slot, rated 71.78 with Norberto Arroyo, Jr. aboard for trainer Timothy Shanley. The 4/1 price is accessible, and in a turf allowance where pace scenarios can shuffle the deck, a horse with this rating profile hanging around the top three is a logical exotic inclusion — especially if the two top choices burn each other up in a pace duel.

TrackWiz is giving every reader a look at the first three races today, and there's a nice thread running through them. Scream Machine opens the card in a 5½-furlong dirt claimer with an 88.54 TrackWiz rating — the top number on the entire card — and figures to control things on the front end on this speed-friendly surface. Over on the turf, Misterchilliwilli (85.62) draws our attention in Race 2, a 7-furlong grass claimer where pace shape could be everything. Then Royal Salute rounds out the free picks in the Race 3 allowance mile on turf — a slight class step up from claiming territory, but the 86.51 rating says the talent is there.

The common thread: horses who can establish position early on a surface playing true to form. On a clear, dry day like this, don't overthink it — trust the numbers and look for clean trips.

Full Card Analysis

Race 4

12:15 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A wide-open claiming mile on the turf with a 12-horse field and no clear dominant favorite — the two top-rated contenders sit at 5/2 and 2/1, but several mid-pack horses have the numbers to upset.

win5Dancing ShadowsML 5/2

Dancing Shadows leads our TrackWiz analysis with an 80.85 rating and the highest average speed in the field at 55 — that combination on a turf mile is tough to dismiss. Trainer Robert L. Inman sends Charle Oliveros out from the 5-post, a prime draw in a full field on the grass. The 5/2 morning line reflects public respect, and rightfully so — the pace profile and raw numbers both point to this one.

place3Super EngreidaML 2/1

Super Engreida is listed at 2/1 but slots in as our place pick behind Dancing Shadows, carrying a 76.61 rating with trainer Horacio Barbaran saddling Erik Barbaran in the irons. The 11% career win rate might look modest, but this horse's rating says it's running well right now, and at what figures to be a relatively short price, it's a logical place bet in multi-race wagers.

show11Dream LeaderML 15/1

Dream Leader is the longshot value play in the show position — rated 60.63 and priced at 15/1 on the morning line, which creates a major overlay opportunity if this one fires. Trainer Marion L. Cuttino puts Bailey Weatherly up from the 11-post, and a 7% career win rate at this level isn't inspiring, but the rating is solid enough that landing a show check in a 12-horse field is a realistic outcome worth a few dollars.

Race 5

12:40 AM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A 10-horse claiming sprint on dirt where the morning-line favorite isn't the top-rated horse — Confessor comes in off a wide post with a compelling TrackWiz number and real upset potential.

win10ConfessorML 5/1

Confessor may be sitting in the outside post but carries an 84.17 TrackWiz rating and a 22% career win percentage that absolutely demand respect in this field. Trainer Eddie Clouston puts Luis Alberto Batista in the irons — a jockey-trainer combination that showed up on the card earlier in the night. At 5/1, the morning line actually offers value relative to the ratings edge this horse holds over the rest of the field in a 6-furlong dirt sprint.

place6BailamosML 3/1

Bailamos brings a 68.64 rating and a 25% career win clip, making it the second-best combination of raw rating and winning consistency in this race. Trainer Jay P. Bernardini has Luis Tapara riding from the 6-post, a clean middle draw in a 10-horse sprint field. The 3/1 morning line reflects public attention, and rightfully so — this horse has the profile of a 'win or run second' type that's dangerous in exactas.

show2Royal CurlinML 12/1

Royal Curlin is the value play in the show slot at 12/1, rating out at 65.84 with a 13% career win rate from trainer Juan C. Vazquez. Luis Negron takes the call from the 2-post, which is a favorable gate position in a dirt sprint where breaking cleanly can set a horse up on the lead or in striking position. A horse this well-rated at this price is worth a show ticket and absolutely worth including in trifecta combinations.

Race 6

1:05 AM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

A one-mile dirt claiming race featuring a trio of horses rated 74 or higher — an unusually strong cluster at the top that should make for a competitive stretch run.

win2KhnumML 2/1

Khnum leads the TrackWiz ratings at 84.19 in what is one of the cleaner number-to-price alignments on tonight's card. The 2/1 morning line reflects deserved favorite status, and trainer Tina Ramgeet has Ricardo Barrios in the irons for the 1-mile dirt route. The 10% career win rate is the only modest note here, but this horse's current form rating suggests it's peaking right now and running well above its historical average.

place3ShezadevilML 10/1

Shezadevil at 10/1 is the value angle of this race — a 76.88 rating and an impressive 25% career win rate suggest the oddsmakers might be significantly underestimating this runner. Trainer Juan Pablo Silva sends Luis Negron from the 3-post, and the career win percentage here is genuinely one of the best in the field. At 10/1, this is a place-bet overlay hiding in plain sight.

show4Dashing LassML 6/1

Dashing Lass rounds out the top three with a 74.97 rating and trainer Timothy Shanley putting Norberto Arroyo, Jr. up from the 4-post. The 3% career win rate raises an eyebrow, but the TrackWiz rating says this horse belongs in this cluster, and in a field where pace duels can develop over a mile on dirt, a horse sitting off the pace and closing into a soft pace scenario can land in the money at a generous 6/1 price.

Race 7

1:30 AM EDT

Claiming · 2 fur · Dirt

A short 2-furlong dirt blast is pure gate-to-wire stuff — talent separation happens fast at this distance, and the top two TrackWiz horses are separated by barely a point.

win3French OnionML 5/1

French Onion posts an 84.17 TrackWiz rating alongside a remarkable 50% career win rate — that's not a typo, and in a 2-furlong sprint where there's almost no margin for error, consistent winners deserve serious respect. Trainer Juan Pablo Silva has Luis Negron in the irons from the 3-post, a perfect inside draw in a race where the horse that breaks cleanly and gets to the rail is already halfway home. The 5/1 morning line looks like genuine overlay given those career numbers.

place10Cash CustomerML 4/1

Cash Customer sits just behind at 82.74 and carries a 28% career win rate with Ricardo Barrios aboard for trainer Danny R. Bird from the 10-post. The outside post is a concern in a 2-furlong sprint, but this horse's rating says it has the raw ability to overcome a tough draw — and at 4/1, there's enough value here to make it a strong place contender even if the post hurts slightly.

show5Where Ya At VinceML 3/1

Where Ya At Vince brings a 77.59 rating and an eye-popping 42% career win rate, making this one of the more interesting horses on the whole card from a pure winning-habit standpoint. Trainer Nery Alvarez puts Luis Alberto Batista up from the 5-post — a workable draw — and at 3/1, this is a morning-line price that says the public already knows about this one. The show price may be short, but the horse's profile is legitimate.

Race 8

1:55 AM EDT

Starter Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Dirt

A Starter Optional Claiming sprint over 5.5 furlongs draws 12 runners with a genuinely competitive mid-tier cluster — the top two picks are priced at 5/1 and 4/1, which suggests the market sees vulnerability at the top.

win11Crimson NightsML 5/1

Crimson Nights leads our selections with a 78.45 TrackWiz rating and an 18% career win rate from trainer Julie Mathes, who also has Silver Candice entered in this race. Luis Alberto Batista gets the call from the 11-post — an outside draw in a sprint that could force a wide trip early, but this horse's raw numbers suggest it has enough ability to overcome traffic. At 5/1, the price is right for a horse that rates out on top in a competitive field.

place12Rock Star ParkingML 4/1

Rock Star Parking comes in at 75.62 on the TrackWiz scale with a 22% career win clip for trainer Juan Pablo Silva — Silva's horses have been showing up all card long, so the barn is clearly firing. Luis Negron takes the 12-post, and while back-to-back outside draws are never ideal in a sprint, the 4/1 morning line suggests the market sees this horse as a legitimate threat to finish in the top two.

show7PopstyleML 3/1

Popstyle rates at 72.80 with a 20% career win rate, and trainer Jeff Fletcher puts Yuri Yaranga up from the 7-post — a mid-field draw that should allow this horse to find a clean trip and travel comfortably in the pack. The 3/1 morning line makes this the public's third choice, and the show analysis here is simple: a horse this well-rated at a competitive price is exactly the kind of runner you want anchoring the bottom of your trifecta.

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A clean, fast Mountaineer card under sunny skies — this is the kind of day where preparation separates the winners from the crowd. Scream Machine is our top-rated horse on the card, Royal Salute and Misterchilliwilli give the free preview plenty of meat, and the premium races have some genuinely interesting angles worth digging into. Get the full story with a TrackWiz subscription — details at /pricing. Good luck out there.

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