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Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — September 12, 2026

September 12, 20268 racesAll Monmouth Park picks

Monmouth Park is putting together a solid Saturday card this September 12th — eight races, a comfortable 76°F under cloudy skies, and a surface that should play true all afternoon. The clouds actually work in our favor here: no scorching sun to firm up the turf, which means the going should remain consistent and predictable throughout the day.

Five of the eight races land on grass, so if you've got a turf specialist in your stable of go-to angles, today's your day. The mix of Maiden Claiming, Allowance Optional Claiming, and Starter Allowance conditions gives us a wide range of competition levels to pick apart — from first-timers trying to break their maiden all the way up to seasoned allowance runners with real class to defend.

Our TrackWiz models churned through the full card and flagged some legitimate spots to get involved. The first three races are on us — completely free — and they cover a nice cross-section of today's action across both turf and dirt.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A maiden claiming turf sprint that shapes up as a clear TrackWiz rating advantage for the top pick, but with a field full of first-timers and zero career wins across the board, the door is open for a surprise.

win1Landing ForceML 3/1

Landing Force comes in with a TrackWiz rating of 87.08 — a significant gap over the rest of this maiden claiming field, where the next closest sits at 69.77. Luis Raul Rivera, Jr. gets the call, and at 3/1 on the morning line, this isn't even an overlay — the number makes sense given the edge our models show. The 1 1/16-mile turf distance suits a horse who figures to relax early and fire late. In a field where nobody has broken their maiden yet, the horse with the most upside on paper is your best bet.

place4MustbethemunningML 9/5

Mustbethemunning is the morning-line favorite at 9/5, which tells you the public agrees there's talent here — and our rating of 69.77 backs that up as the second-best figure in the race. Trainer Rob Atras has a history of putting horses in spots they can succeed, and Reylu Gutierrez is a solid booking. If the top pick encounters any traffic trouble on the turf course, this one is right there to capitalize.

show8Johnny Bay GoodeML 5/1

Johnny Bay Goode checks in at a 65.11 TrackWiz rating — third best in the field — and comes in at a reasonable 5/1 morning line with Martina Rojas aboard for trainer Wayne Potts. In a wide-open maiden field at this distance on the turf, having a horse with some upside sprinkled into your exacta and trifecta coverage makes plenty of sense. Don't let the price scare you off from using him in the exotics.

Race 2

5:21 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong dirt claiming sprint with a horse whose TrackWiz rating laps the field by a wide margin — but pace and post position could make things interesting heading into the first turn.

win7Mya PapayaML 7/2

Mya Papaya is simply the class of this field on our numbers, posting an 86.35 TrackWiz rating against a group where nobody else cracks 61. She's also won at a 20% clip in her career — solid in a claiming spot — and trainer Wayne Potts keeps her sharp. Noel Herman takes the mount and at 7/2, this is a horse you can play with confidence in all vertical bets. When a horse dominates on both raw rating and experience, you take note.

place3Don't Tell TammoML 9/2

Don't Tell Tammo has quietly put together a respectable 16% career win rate and owns a 60.57 TrackWiz rating that makes her the clear second choice on our board. Trainer Wayne Potts actually saddles two horses in this race, so the barn is obviously feeling good about their runners today. Martina Rojas brings her home from post 3, a neutral draw in a six-furlong sprint, and she looks like a logical place finisher at 9/2.

show2ToasttothestonesML 6/1

Toasttothestones brings an 18% career win rate to the table — the second-highest in this field — which speaks to a horse that knows how to find the wire. The 53.52 rating isn't flashy, but Kelly J. Breen is a reliable hand at Monmouth and Luis Raul Rivera, Jr. is a sharp booking. At 6/1, she's a solid show bet and a worthwhile exotics piece if you're building trifectas around the top two.

Race 3

5:52 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

A Maiden Special Weight turf sprint with two horses at 2/1 on the morning line creating a potential pace matchup — but TrackWiz sees a clear separation between the top-rated contender and the chalk-priced co-favorite.

win4OlatzML 2/1

Olatz opens at 2/1 on the morning line and earns it with an 84.69 TrackWiz rating — tops in this MSW field. Trainer Lindsay Schultz puts Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. in the irons, a quality combination for a horse making a move in the maiden ranks. The 5 1/2-furlong turf trip is a common spot for lightly raced horses to flash talent, and Olatz's rating gives her the edge we need to make a confident win pick here.

place8Aria DML 6/1

Aria D is the angle play in this race — an 82.71 TrackWiz rating at 6/1 on the morning line is genuine value in a spot where the public is focused on the two co-favorites. Trainer Patrick B. McBurney puts Charlie Marquez up, and the horse's average speed figure of 55 matches the top runners in the field. If Olatz gets pressured early, Aria D could be the one running them down.

show7Honor the NumbersML 9/5

Honor the Numbers draws a lot of attention at 9/5 as the co-morning-line favorite, but our 69.68 rating slots her third behind two horses priced longer — which is the honest assessment here. Chantal Sutherland is an elite pick-up in a maiden field and trainer Jorge Delgado places her confidently at short odds. Even if she doesn't win, she should be a factor, making her a logical exotics play.

We're kicking things off on the turf in Race 1 with Landing Force (3/1 morning line, TrackWiz rating 87.08) in a Maiden Claiming route at 1 1/16 miles — a distance that suits closers and horses with tactical speed on grass. Jump to Race 2 and we shift to six furlongs on the dirt, where Mya Papaya (7/2) gives us a sharp sprinting angle in a straight Claiming field. Then Race 3 brings us back to the turf for a 5 1/2-furlong Maiden Special Weight, and our analysis lands squarely on Olatz (2/1) as the logical favorite — the morning line respects her, and our rating of 84.69 backs that up.

The through-line across these three free picks? The turf should be playing fair and fast enough to reward horses with forward speed figures and clean trip histories. On dirt in Race 2, pace scenario matters — six furlongs can get hot early and set up closers if the speed burns itself out. We like how Mya Papaya's profile sets up against this field for exactly that reason.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:23 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This maiden claiming six-furlong dirt race features a significant TrackWiz rating outlier at a generous morning-line price — a classic value spot where the numbers point clearly in one direction.

win7Quality SpringML 5/1

Quality Spring tops this field with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating and is priced at 5/1 on the morning line — that's a meaningful disconnect between our models and where the public is likely to land. Kendry Rivera gets the mount for trainer Jose H. Delgado, who already has a second horse in the race and clearly likes his stable's chances today. Against maiden claiming rivals who haven't broken through yet, Quality Spring's edge on our ratings is the kind of gap that turns into a winner's circle photo.

place1Beechwood's BestML 5/2

Beechwood's Best brings a recognizable name behind her — Chad C. Brown is one of the top conditioners in the game, and when his horses ship into a spot like this, they deserve respect regardless of price. The 57.5 TrackWiz rating and 5/2 morning line reflect the public's confidence in the barn's ability to get a maiden over the hump. Luis Raul Rivera, Jr. has been active on the card today and knows the conditions well.

show4Tell It Like It IsML 3/1

Tell It Like It Is sits third on our ratings at 56.67 and draws a 3/1 morning line, suggesting trainer Teresa M. Pompay likes the spot. The horse doesn't have an average speed figure on record, which creates a bit of a mystery — but in maiden company, that unknown factor can cut both ways. Jose Antonio Gomez keeps the mount, and at 3/1, this horse makes solid sense in the trifecta.

Race 5

6:54 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

The starter allowance on the turf at 5 1/2 furlongs has genuine depth — multiple horses with strong career win percentages and competitive speed figures — making this one of the more nuanced handicapping puzzles on the card.

win6Bess' CandyML 6/1

Bess' Candy tops our ratings at 82.71 in a field where several horses are bunched tightly, and at 6/1 on the morning line, the value is real. Trainer John C. Servis has a well-earned reputation for placing horses in spots they can win, and Abner Adorno gets the mount. The average speed figure of 56 is competitive at this distance, and in a starter allowance field, experience and class matter — Bess' Candy brings both.

place9Foggy NoteML 7/2

Foggy Note is the second choice on our board at 74.80 and comes in at 7/2 on the morning line, which reflects genuine two-hole potential. Kelly J. Breen is one of the sharper trainers at Monmouth, and Luis Raul Rivera, Jr. has been busy on this card — a sign the horse is live. A 19% career win rate in a competitive starter allowance field speaks to consistency, and this one should be in the mix at the top of the stretch.

show4ReassessML 8/1

Reassess opens at 8/1 on the morning line but checks in third on our ratings at 73.05 — that's a price worth exploring in the exotics. Trainer Susan L. Crowell puts Jose C. Ferrer up, and with a 12% career win rate, this horse has shown it can get the job done. The pace scenario on a turf sprint could set up perfectly for a closer, and Reassess fits that profile.

Race 6

7:25 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

Two horses separate themselves from the pack in this six-furlong dirt claiming race, setting up what could be a head-to-head duel with the rest of the field playing for third.

win1No DenyingML 5/2

No Denying leads our ratings with an 87.81 score and owns a 28% career win rate — that's an elite figure for a claiming horse and the kind of number that translates to consistent performance. Trainer Devon Dougherty puts Kendry Rivera in the saddle, and at 5/2 on the morning line, the price is fair for a legitimate favorite. The six-furlong dirt distance is a classic proving ground, and No Denying has the profile to handle the competition.

place2Lady KhozML 2/1

Lady Khoz is the 2/1 morning-line favorite, which means the public is sweet on her — but our 80.08 rating puts her solidly in second, behind No Denying. The career win rate of just 5% is a flag worth noting; this is a horse that has been competitive without closing the deal, which makes the place spot feel more natural than the win. Jose C. Ferrer is a capable handler and could coax a strong effort out of a horse in need of the right setup.

show3By My DreamsML 8/1

By My Dreams comes in at 8/1 on the morning line and third on our ratings at 69.79, which makes her an intriguing exotics inclusion. Trainer Juan Carlos Avila puts Melissa Iorio up, and with a 7% career win rate, this isn't a horse to anchor your tickets to — but as a show bet or bottom of the trifecta, the value at 8/1 is worth a few dollars. If the top two get into each other early, By My Dreams could be the one sneaking up on the outside.

Race 7

7:56 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

An eleven-horse allowance optional claiming field on the turf — full fields on grass at 5 1/2 furlongs mean traffic is a real factor, and our top pick holds the top TrackWiz rating while being posted at a fair price.

win7Pivotal MomentML 5/2

Pivotal Moment shares the top TrackWiz rating in this race at 87.81 and is legitimately the class of the field on our numbers. Trainer Miguel Clement gives Luis Raul Rivera, Jr. the call — note that Rivera is actually double-booked in this race, which can happen in larger fields, and he's on the #7. At 5/2 on the morning line, Pivotal Moment is a confident top selection. A 55 average speed figure is right in the wheelhouse for this distance, and 11% career win rate in allowance company is acceptable when your raw talent score leads the field.

place4MaximatchML 7/2

Maximatch rates second at 81.03 on our board and comes in at 7/2 — a price that reflects legitimate contention without reaching far over the top pick. Trainer Teresa M. Pompay is comfortable at Monmouth, and Christian Maragh is a sharp pickup in this spot. With a 55 average speed figure and a rating that puts him firmly in the top tier, Maximatch profiles as a strong each-way play.

show3BalticML 6/1

Baltic rounds out the top three on our ratings at 78.61 and draws a 6/1 morning line from trainer Cathal A. Lynch, with Christopher Elliott in the irons. An average speed figure of 56 — tied for the best in the field — is a legitimate edge in a turf sprint, where late kick matters. Lynch is a turf specialist who knows how to get horses to fire on grass, and Baltic at 6/1 is a nice show anchor for your trifecta tickets.

Race 8

8:27 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A one-mile turf claiming race with two horses clearly separating themselves on the TrackWiz ratings, but the field has legitimate depth and a few live longshots lurking in the double digits.

win4Only YouML 5/2

Only You tops the field at an 85.88 TrackWiz rating and brings a sterling 27% career win rate to a one-mile turf claiming spot — that win percentage is excellent and tells you this horse has a developed finishing move. Trainer Jorge Delgado keeps the horse in form and Reylu Gutierrez, a reliable turf pilot, gets the assignment. At 5/2 on the morning line, you're not getting rich, but the combination of high rating and elite win percentage makes Only You the clear top choice.

place1Precious CatML 6/1

Precious Cat comes in with an 82.71 TrackWiz rating and a 20% career win rate, which is solid for a claiming-level turf router. Trainer Michael Dini puts Francisco Martinez up, and at 6/1 on the morning line, there's genuine value here for a horse sitting second on our ratings. The one-mile turf distance rewards horses that can rate and sustain, and Precious Cat's average speed of 55 is competitive enough to expect a strong showing.

show8Southern LadyML 6/1

Southern Lady rates third in the field at 73.25 with a 20% career win rate — she's been around the block and knows how to compete. Trainer Kathleen O'Connell runs two horses in this race, which signals confidence from the barn, and Pedro L. Cotto, Jr. handles the mount. At 6/1 on the morning line for a horse this experienced and this capable, Southern Lady is exactly the type of show inclusion that can anchor a trifecta without breaking the bank.

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Bottom line for today at Monmouth: the turf is the story, and Landing Force, Olatz, and Mya Papaya are our free best bets to get you started. For the full card — including Pivotal Moment, No Denying, and our exotic ticket breakdowns — subscribers have everything they need in the premium analysis. Good luck out there, and as always, bet smart.

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