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Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — September 13, 2026

September 13, 20268 racesAll Monmouth Park picks

It's a wet Sunday at Monmouth Park — rain is falling and the temperature is sitting at a warm 77°F, which means the turf course is going to be a story all afternoon. With five of today's eight races carded on the grass, surface management and late scratches will be something every serious bettor needs to track right up to post time.

The eight-race card mixes maiden special weights, claimers, and an allowance optional claiming feature in Race 7, giving bettors a range of competitive scenarios from green maidens breaking their maiden to seasoned claimers jostling for position. There's genuine value scattered throughout this card if you know where to look.

TrackWiz analysis has identified strong top picks across all eight races, with ratings clustered in a tight band — which tells us this is a competitive card top to bottom. No laydowns, no freebies. Every race is going to require homework.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A wide-open maiden turf route with a clear class standout at the top, but the back half of the field is bunched tightly enough that the exacta and trifecta could go a dozen ways.

win3ResoluteML 5/2

Resolute is the horse to beat here, and it's not particularly close on paper — a TrackWiz rating of 87.81 towers over the rest of this maiden turf field. Trained by John C. Servis, who knows how to place maidens in spots they can win, this one draws post 3 in a 1 1/16-mile turf route, a configuration that suits closers and stalkers. Luis M. Ocasio gets the call and has the tactical awareness to find position on a turf course without overcommitting early. At 5/2 on the morning line, you're not getting a steal, but the numbers say this is the most likely winner on the board.

place7Housing MarketML 3/1

Housing Market opens at 3/1 and carries the second-highest TrackWiz rating in the field at 56.67, backed by the powerful Chad C. Brown barn which consistently fires sharp first-out turf maidens. The 1 1/16-mile distance on grass suits a Brown-trained router, and Luis Raul Rivera, Jr. is comfortable around this course. Even if Resolute proves best, Housing Market looks like a solid place play at a price that offers some return.

show9Oxford StreetML 9/2

Oxford Street at 9/2 brings a rating of 54.17 and slots neatly into a show role as a value inclusion in the trifecta. Trainer Jorge Delgado gets horses ready, and Daniel Centeno is a capable hand around Monmouth's turf course. In a field this bunched from positions 3 through 10, Oxford Street's presence at a workable price makes it a logical trifecta underneath.

Race 2

5:22 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong maiden dirt sprint with a standout on ratings but a pace scenario that could get messy early, leaving the door open for a presser to steal it.

win10Even UpML 3/1

Even Up holds the top TrackWiz rating in this field at 87.08 and opens at a fair 3/1 on the morning line — not a chalk play, but clearly the most analytically supported horse. Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. is one of the sharper riders in this meet and knows how to navigate a busy six-furlong sprint from post 10, which will require some early positioning. Trainer Eddie Owens, Jr. shows a horse with an average speed figure of 55, matching the best figures in the race. This one sets up as the most confident win selection of the first two races.

place6It's Prime TimeML 4/1

It's Prime Time rates out at 60.52 and opens at 4/1, giving the place bettor a little cushion in a race where the win pick carries some post-draw risk. Trainer Anthony R. Margotta, Jr. keeps this horse sharp, and Ramon F. Moya has been solid at this meet. An avg speed of 55 ties for the best in the field, and a stalker profile from post 6 puts this one in a prime spot to collect a piece.

show1Control the TimeML 5/2

Control the Time draws the rail in a six-furlong sprint, and while post 1 can be tricky in a crowd, Paco Lopez is the kind of jockey who turns that into an advantage. The 57.5 rating is third-best in the race, and the avg speed of 55 shows this one has legitimate early foot. At 5/2, the show price won't be lucrative, but in a trifecta underneath Even Up and It's Prime Time, Control the Time makes plenty of sense.

Race 3

5:54 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

This 1 1/16-mile turf claimer features a class dynamic worth watching — Denying carries a rating nearly 25 points clear of the next-best horse, but the morning line chalk Magical Marriage could complicate the pace scenario.

win10DenyingML 7/2

Denying tops this field with a TrackWiz rating of 86.35 and lands in capable hands with Paco Lopez, one of the elite jockeys at this meet. Trained by Wayne Potts, who has a knack for placing horses in the right spots, Denying's avg speed of 53 is competitive at this level and on this turf surface. The 7/2 morning line represents fair value for a horse whose rating separates it so decisively from the rest of the field — this is TrackWiz's most confident selection in Race 3.

place8Into ItML 5/2

Into It checks in with the second-best rating in the race at 61.65 and brings a 17% career win rate that stands out in a claiming field. Trainer Kelly J. Breen consistently gets horses fit, and Jose Antonio Gomez navigates the turf course well. The 5/2 morning line makes Into It the public's second choice, so the place price may be modest, but as a key underneath horse in exactas and exotics it earns its spot.

show3Magical MarriageML 2/1

Magical Marriage is the morning line favorite at 2/1 and carries a 15% career win rate, so it's not being included here as a fade — it's a legitimate contender. What drops it to the show position in our picks is the rating gap versus Denying and Into It. Charlie Marquez has ridden this horse well, and trainer Patrick B. McBurney keeps stock sharp on the turf. At 2/1, the show price won't be worth writing home about, but it's a natural trifecta key in the bottom slot.

The first three races are unlocked for all TrackWiz readers, and they set the tone for the day nicely. Race 1 sends us straight to the turf for a maiden special weight going a mile and a sixteenth, where Resolute (morning line 5/2) tops our ratings at 87.81 — the highest single mark on the entire card. In Race 2 we shift to six furlongs on the dirt, where Even Up (3/1 ML) draws our top nod in a maiden sprint that should reward front-end speed. Then Race 3 brings us back to the turf for a claiming route, and Denying (7/2 ML) is our play in what figures to be a pace-honest affair.

One key angle tying these free picks together: if the turf course gets officially downgraded due to the rain — watch for a "good" or "yielding" designation — horses with proven form on softer ground move way up the ladder. Resolute and Denying both bear watching in that regard. On the dirt side, a wet Monmouth strip historically plays fair to slightly speed-favoring, which bodes well for Even Up's profile in Race 2.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:25 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong maiden claimer on the dirt that features a horse whose rating blows the field apart — this one has all the markings of a short-priced, wire-to-wire type.

win6Bet On BethML 3/1

Bet On Beth posts an 87.08 TrackWiz rating in a field where nobody else cracks 70, and the morning line of 3/1 suggests the public already knows where the value lies. Trainer Michael Dini places horses with intention, and Francisco Martinez is a confident hand on a speed-favoring dirt sprint. The avg speed of 54 is the best in the race, pointing to a horse that can control the early fractions and dare the field to catch her. This looks like the kind of dominant maiden claimer you circle in the program and don't overthink.

place3Regal RulesML 9/2

Regal Rules is the clear second choice on our ratings at 68.07, a significant step up from the rest of the field once you remove Bet On Beth. Noel Herman handles the mount from post 3, a clean draw in a six-furlong sprint, and trainer Alberto Plaza has shown an ability to have runners ready. If Bet On Beth faces any early pressure and flattens out, Regal Rules profiles as the most likely beneficiary.

show5Tarzan's NieceML 6/1

Tarzan's Niece opens at 6/1 and rates third in the field at 51.67 — not eye-popping numbers, but in a shallow maiden claiming field that's enough to earn a show ticket. Trainer Juan Carlos Avila also saddles Lovely Cause in this race, which is worth noting as a potential barn factor. Angel Morales is a live rider on this circuit, and at 6/1 this horse gives trifecta players a little overlay in the third slot.

Race 5

6:57 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

Ratings-wise this turf claimer is top-heavy, but the presence of multiple respected trainers and a crowded pace scenario at 1 1/16 miles sets up a genuinely competitive race with exotics potential.

win7Manoah's GloryML 3/1

Manoah's Glory tops the TrackWiz ratings at 87.08 and comes in with a 27% career win rate — by far the most impressive winning percentage in this field. Daniel Centeno has the mount, and trainer Jorge Delgado runs horses regularly over this turf course with good results. At 3/1 on the morning line, there's some price to go along with the top rating and the consistent winning profile — this is the kind of horse you build your exotics around.

place3KhetamML 9/2

Khetam rates second in the field at 83.12 and brings a 16% career win rate along with trainer Michael Dini, who clearly has this stable rolling — he also saddles Fully Authorized in the same race. Francisco Martinez takes the mount, and the avg speed of 52 on turf at this distance is workable. The 9/2 morning line gives you a little return on the place end while backing the second-most analytically supported horse in the race.

show10More PowerML 9/2

More Power checks in with a 74.91 rating and a 15% career win rate, making it a legitimate contender rather than a throw-in for the show spot. Wayne Potts trains, and Noel Herman handles the mount at 9/2 — the same morning line as Khetam but with a slightly lower rating, which is why it slots to show here. In a 10-horse turf field where the pace could get complicated, More Power's profile as a closer gives it a natural late-running angle.

Race 6

7:29 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

This six-furlong dirt claimer is a tighter affair at the top — the two highest-rated horses are separated by less than 3 points, and there's a pair of overlooked win candidates lurking near double digits on the morning line.

win3My Two Sophia'sML 7/2

My Two Sophia's leads the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and brings a 17% career win rate along with an avg speed of 55 — tied for the best figure in the race. Samuel Marin has the mount, and trainer Panagiotis A. Synnefias consistently places horses in competitive spots at Monmouth. At 7/2 on the morning line, this is the play from a ratings standpoint, and the combination of speed figures and win percentage makes it the most well-rounded horse in the field.

place6Red Head ItalianML 4/1

Red Head Italian rates just below the top at 83.19 and flashes a 19% career win rate that speaks to consistent competitiveness. Luis Raul Rivera, Jr. gets the mount for trainer Kelly J. Breen, who has been a reliable presence at this meet. The avg speed of 55 matches the best in the field, and in a race where My Two Sophia's might draw most of the action, Red Head Italian could offer some overlay on the place end at 4/1.

show5Pat'schromecompassML 8/1

Pat'schromecompass opens at 8/1 with a 73.71 rating and a 13% career win rate, making it the most interesting price in the race from a value standpoint. Jose Antonio Gomez rides for trainer Patrick B. McBurney, who has a solid record placing horses in this class range. The avg speed of 55 ties for the race's best figure, and at 8/1 this horse is a natural live longshot underneath in exactas and trifectas — the kind of overlay that makes a winning trifecta actually pay.

Race 7

8:01 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A full, 14-horse allowance optional claiming field on turf — these are the trickiest races to handicap, with legitimate horses top to bottom and a pace scenario that could shift several times over 1 1/16 miles.

win3ThorsnessML 9/2

Thorsness owns the top TrackWiz rating in this sprawling field at 84.9, and a 28% career win rate is elite-level efficiency for a horse running at this class. Jose C. Ferrer takes the mount for trainer Jose Lozano Sanchez, who sends horses out ready to run. The 9/2 morning line is fair value in a 14-horse field where the right pace scenario — stalking a modest pace on the turf — sets up perfectly for a horse with this kind of sustained kick. In a big field, this is the one you anchor your exotics around.

place14RerallyML 9/2

Rerally carries a 78.18 rating and a 23% career win rate, making it the second-most consistent winning horse in the analysis. Jose Antonio Gomez handles the mount from post 14 — an outside post on turf that can actually be an advantage in a field this large, avoiding early traffic. At 9/2, the morning line matches our win pick, so shop for the best number, but Rerally profiles as a strong place play with closing ability at a useful price.

show7GrouchML 6/1

Grouch rates at 77.67 with a 15% career win rate and gets star power in the saddle with Paco Lopez — one of the best in this jockey colony. Trainer Jose Lozano Sanchez also saddles Thorsness in this race, which means the barn has two live horses at potentially overlaid prices. On a turf course where pace control matters, a horse trained by the same stable as the top pick often benefits from complementary tactics — Grouch is a legitimate show play and an interesting exacta piece underneath Thorsness.

Race 8

8:32 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

The card closes with a six-furlong maiden claimer on the dirt — the ratings are clustered near the top, but two horses separate themselves from the pack and make for a compelling win-place exacta in either order.

win8Why Me LordML 5/1

Why Me Lord tops the field with an 84.17 TrackWiz rating and opens at a generous 5/1 on the morning line — that's genuine value for a horse whose numbers say it's the best runner in the race. Trainer Wayne Potts also saddles Rogue Prince in this race, so the barn is double-barreled; the fact that Why Me Lord carries the higher rating suggests the connections view this one as the primary runner. Martina Rojas takes the mount, and with an avg speed of 54 — tied for the best in the field — there's legitimate ability to back up the rating.

place1Rogue PrinceML 5/2

Rogue Prince checks in at 80.73 with Paco Lopez in the irons and a 5/2 morning line that makes it the betting public's early favorite. The Wayne Potts barn clearly has both horses fit, and Lopez is rarely cold at Monmouth — he's one of the most dangerous jockey angles on the circuit. At 5/2, the place price won't be huge, but in a field this short, a Rogue Prince–Why Me Lord exacta in both directions is a legitimate structure for the race.

show5My Little Nico GML 5/1

My Little Nico G slots into the show position with a 77.59 rating and an avg speed of 54, tying the best figure in the field. Trainer Silvino Ramirez sends this one out at 5/1 with Charlie Marquez in the irons, a pairing that has been effective at this level. In a maiden claimer where the top two horses are closely matched, getting My Little Nico G underneath in a trifecta at a price that offers real return is exactly the kind of spot TrackWiz analysis looks for.

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Rain, turf questions, and a competitive eight-race card — today at Monmouth Park demands attention to detail. Our top-rated play of the day is Resolute in Race 1, with Even Up and Denying rounding out the free best bets. For the full-card breakdown including pace scenarios, exotic strategies, and every premium pick, TrackWiz subscribers have everything they need. Good luck out there — and keep an eye on that turf course condition before you lock in your tickets.

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