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Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — August 1, 2026

August 1, 20268 racesAll Monmouth Park picks

Happy August, horse players. Monmouth Park rolls out an 8-race Saturday card to kick off the new month, and the jersey Shore is playing ball — cloudy skies at 81°F mean no brutal sun beating down on the turf courses, which should keep the going consistent throughout the afternoon.

We've got a little bit of everything today: a pair of maiden openers to get the card started, a Stakes race on the turf in Race 5 to anchor the middle of the card, and a dirt closer in Race 8 that sets up nicely for some multi-race sequence play. Three races are fully unlocked for every TrackWiz reader, with five premium analyses waiting for subscribers behind the paywall.

The turf is very much in play today — three of the eight races are contested on the grass — so pace scenarios and surface form are going to be front and center in our thinking all card long.

Best Bets

Race 1

4:50 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 1 1/16 mi · Turf

A maiden turf sprint at 1 1/16 miles where one horse stands head and shoulders above the field on the TrackWiz ratings — but with all zeros in the career win column, anything can happen on debut or near-debut runners.

win1Hop to ItML 9/5

Hop to It (No. 1) is the clear top selection here, posting a TrackWiz rating of 88.83 — nearly 29 points clear of the next closest rival, Sweet Science. Edwin Gonzalez gets the call for trainer Tim Woolley, and that inside post should help secure a clean trip on the turf. The average speed figure of 54 leads the field, and the morning line of 9/5 reflects the public's respect for this one. If Hop to It runs anywhere close to its rating ceiling, this field is going home empty.

place2Sweet ScienceML 5/2

Sweet Science (No. 2) checks in second on the TrackWiz leaderboard with a rating of 60.07 and an average speed of 53, which is solid in this company. Francisco Martinez riding for Michael Dini is a combo worth noting — Dini fields competitive horses at Monmouth, and the 5/2 morning line suggests the market agrees this one deserves a spot on your ticket. A safe place play in a maiden field where form can be inconsistent.

show7BaliteaML 5/1

Balitea (No. 7) at 5/1 morning line offers some value in the exotics, posting a rating of 59.47 that edges out Molly the Great and Nina Lee for the third spot in our rankings. Trainer Joseph W. Mazza has the horse pointed to this turf route, and Melissa Iorio gives this a capable pilot. In a wide-open maiden field, having a 5/1 shot covering your show position in the trifecta makes solid financial sense.

Race 2

5:22 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A six-furlong maiden claiming sprint on dirt where the TrackWiz ratings reveal a two-horse battle at the top — and the morning line actually disagrees with our model, setting up a potential overlay situation.

win5Royal MeritML 5/2

Royal Merit (No. 5) tops the field with a TrackWiz rating of 85.44 and an average speed figure of 54 that ties for the field lead. What's particularly interesting here is the trainer angle — Michael Dini, who also saddles Sweet Science in Race 1, has a sharp eye for placing horses to win. Edwin Gonzalez gets the mount from the five-hole, which is workable in a six-furlong sprint. The 5/2 morning line makes Royal Merit the second choice, but our model says this is the top horse.

place6J J PachecoML 6/1

J J Pacheco (No. 6) is the most intriguing play on the card at 6/1 morning line, carrying a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 that's barely a point and a half behind Royal Merit. Trainer Cesar Alcala has J J Pacheco primed for a big effort, and Charlie Marquez in the irons adds a live rider angle. At 6/1, if the public underestimates this one, you could be looking at a place overlay that pays better than the win on Royal Merit.

show2Mystical MerlinML 9/2

Mystical Merlin (No. 2) at 9/2 morning line rates third in our model with a 66.57 rating — a significant jump above the rest of the field outside the top two. Jose C. Ferrer riding for Chuck Spina, who also has U Dirty Dog in this race, gives the barn a two-pronged attack. In a maiden sprint where pace can get hot early, Mystical Merlin's positioning as a likely stalker makes this horse a reliable show horse for trifecta coverage.

Race 3

5:53 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

This mile-and-70-yard dirt claiming race features a clear TrackWiz standout going postward at a modest 2/1 morning line — but a pair of second-chance horses could make the exacta worth constructing carefully.

win7Bee N DeeML 2/1

Bee N Dee (No. 7) dominates the TrackWiz ratings at 88.54, nearly 22 points ahead of the next rival, Rachel Caroline. Edwin Gonzalez gets the mount for trainer Jose Lozano Sanchez, and this horse brings a legitimate 10% career win rate into the race — meaningful in a claiming field. The 2/1 morning line won't offer much value, but the ratings gap here is significant enough that Bee N Dee earns a strong win selection regardless of price.

place6Rachel CarolineML 3/1

Rachel Caroline (No. 6) at 3/1 looks like a natural runner-up threat, posting a TrackWiz rating of 66.11 and an average speed figure of 52. Chantal Sutherland is one of the more polished riders at Monmouth, and trainer James A. Frangella, Jr. has this horse at a price the market respects. With only a 3% career win rate, Rachel Caroline has shown a tendency to run into the money without winning outright — which is exactly the profile you want for a place play.

show4Kathleen's DerbyML 4/1

Kathleen's Derby (No. 4) brings a respectable 11% career win rate and a TrackWiz rating of 54.73, making it the third-best rated runner in the field. Trainer Kathleen O'Connell also enters First Hathor here, giving the barn a dual shot, and Melissa Iorio is a capable pilot who knows this circuit well. The 4/1 morning line on a horse with proven closing ability in dirt routes makes Kathleen's Derby a smart show inclusion in your trifecta tickets.

Our three free best bets span both surfaces and a range of conditions, which is exactly the kind of variety that keeps a Saturday card interesting. Hop to It draws our attention right out of the gate in Race 1, taking on maiden claimers going 1 1/16 miles on the turf — a distance that rewards tactical runners who can settle early and kick late. Over on the dirt, Royal Merit gets the nod in the 6-furlong sprint in Race 2, a race where early speed and gate sharpness matter enormously. Then in Race 3, Bee N Dee faces a claiming field stretching out to a mile and 70 yards — our ratings like this one at 2/1 morning line, which is right in that sweet spot of value without being a total mystery.

The connecting thread across the free picks? Each runner projects to be near or on the pace in a field where the pace scenario doesn't look punishing. On a cloudy day with stable footing on both surfaces, we don't anticipate any significant track bias to fight against — which means our ratings should translate cleanly to the finish line.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 4

6:25 PM EDT

Starter Allowance · 6 fur · Dirt

A wide-open ten-horse starter allowance sprint on dirt where the TrackWiz model identifies a clear top two — but the morning line spread and a crowded pace scenario make this one tricky to navigate.

win10President ZML 7/2

President Z (No. 10) leads the TrackWiz ratings at 86.35 and carries the most impressive career win percentage in the field at 26% — a number that stands out sharply in a field where most horses are in the low teens. Wayne Potts trains this one, and putting Edwin Gonzalez up gives President Z an elite pair of hands in a ten-horse sprint. The 7/2 morning line represents fair value given the profile, and that 55 average speed figure ties for the field lead.

place8Competitive SaintML 5/1

Competitive Saint (No. 8) is the second-best rated horse in this field at 76.53 and carries a solid 14% career win rate. Jean Aguilar gets the mount for trainer Miguel Penaloza, and that 5/1 morning line looks like a subtle overlay given how close this horse rates to the top of the field. At a one-turn sprint, Competitive Saint's 54 average speed figure suggests a horse that can keep up with the pace and still have something left.

show1My Man WoodyML 4/1

My Man Woody (No. 1) draws the rail with a 74.16 TrackWiz rating and the best average speed figure for a show pick at 55. Trainer Carlos E. Caban has this horse running regularly, and a 16% career win rate shows consistent competitiveness. The inside post in a ten-horse sprint can be a blessing or a curse, but with Abner Adorno in the irons and a solid speed number, My Man Woody is a comfortable show play to round out your exotics.

Race 5

6:57 PM EDT

Stakes · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

Stakes company on the Monmouth turf at 5 1/2 furlongs, and two scratches reshape the pace scenario — the remaining field is competitive, but our model still identifies a clear hierarchy among the live runners.

win10She's a GamerML 9/2

She's a Gamer (No. 10) tops the TrackWiz ratings at 84.90 with a 30% career win rate that stands among the best in this stakes field — though bettors should note a jockey change is indicated on the program. A 30% win rate in stakes-caliber company is genuinely elite, and that 56 average speed figure is right in the mix. Trainer Kelly J. Breen is sharp enough to have this horse spot-on, and the 9/2 morning line could look like a gift if she runs to her ceiling. Monitor the jockey situation before betting.

place3MopoML 7/2

Mopo (No. 3) checks in at 79.69 on the TrackWiz scale with a 25% career win rate and an average speed figure of 57 — that's the joint-best speed figure in the full field. Edwin Gonzalez riding for trainer Phillip Capuano is a formidable combination, and the 7/2 morning line makes this one of the more appealing place plays on the card. On a short turf sprint, a horse with a 57 speed figure and a sharp handler is never to be dismissed.

show5Sweet Brown SugarML 6/1

Sweet Brown Sugar (No. 5) brings the highest career win rate in the entire field at 42%, which is a remarkable number and suggests a horse that consistently converts when pointing at the right spot. Trainer Rob Atras is well-regarded, and Christopher Elliott in the saddle gives this one a capable partner at 6/1. The 76.04 TrackWiz rating and a 56 average speed figure make Sweet Brown Sugar a legitimate show threat and an excellent trifecta inclusion.

Race 6

7:30 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Dirt

Nine horses going a flat mile on dirt in a claiming race where the TrackWiz model flips the morning line on its head — our top-rated horse is going off at 6/1, making this a potential value race worth attacking.

win2RerallyML 6/1

Rerally (No. 2) leads this field with a TrackWiz rating of 82.71 and backs it up with a 22% career win rate — well above average for a claiming field. What makes this selection pop is the price: at 6/1 on the morning line, the market is clearly favoring Denying at 3/1, but our model says Rerally is the better horse by a meaningful margin. Jean Aguilar for trainer Miguel Penaloza is a pairing that's been productive at this meet, and a 51 average speed figure on a horse that rates this highly suggests there may be more in the tank.

place3DenyingML 3/1

Denying (No. 3) may be the public's choice at 3/1, but our model slots it second at a 76.88 rating — still a legitimate contender worth including on your place tickets. Charlie Marquez rides for Devon Dougherty, and that 53 average speed figure leads all horses in this field. A 10% career win rate is modest, but at a mile on dirt for a claimer, a horse with the top speed figure and public support has a straightforward path to at least a placing.

show7Surprise PackageML 8/1

Surprise Package (No. 7) is the hidden gem here — a 29% career win rate that tops this entire field, going postward at 8/1. Trainer Kathleen O'Connell knows how to spot these horses, and Jefferson Skerrett gets the call. The 66.59 TrackWiz rating lands third in the field, and a horse with a 29% lifetime win rate and a sharp trainer at 8/1 is exactly the kind of show overlay that separates casual bettors from value hunters.

Race 7

8:04 PM EDT

Allowance Optional Claiming · 5 1/2 fur · Turf

An allowance optional claiming field on turf at 5 1/2 furlongs that has one horse dominating the TrackWiz ratings — but at 2/1, getting to a price on the place and show picks is where the real value lives.

win1One Fine WineML 2/1

One Fine Wine (No. 1) is the clear top selection, rating 88.54 on the TrackWiz scale — the highest number in this full field of eleven. Edwin Gonzalez for trainer Patrick B. McBurney is a workmanlike combo, and the rail post in a turf sprint can actually be favorable at Monmouth when a horse has enough speed to settle into a good position. The 14% career win rate is modest, but the rating gap here is significant — One Fine Wine looks like the class of this field.

place6Air MasqueML 8/1

Air Masque (No. 6) at 8/1 is the value bomb in this race, posting a TrackWiz rating of 74.55 and carrying the highest average speed figure among our top three picks at 56. Trainer Benjamin W. Perkins, Jr. is a well-respected conditioner, and Melissa Iorio knows the Monmouth turf course well. A 7% career win rate might not scream confidence, but that 56 speed figure on a horse going off at 8/1 suggests the market may be sleeping on Air Masque — excellent place overlay candidate.

show3Point to That StarML 6/1

Point to That Star (No. 3) rounds out the trifecta lineup with a 64.36 TrackWiz rating and an average speed figure of 53. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. riding for trainer Jose H. Delgado has a horse that seems to be improving, and at 6/1 morning line, there's genuine value here. A 4% career win rate tells you this horse finds ways to be close without winning, which is exactly what you want from a show play in an eleven-horse turf field.

Race 8

8:38 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi 70 yd · Dirt

Closing out the card at Monmouth is a nine-horse claiming route going a mile and 70 yards on dirt — the TrackWiz model has a tight top four separated by fewer than 16 points, setting up a genuinely competitive finish.

win4ThorsnessML 5/2

Thorsness (No. 4) leads the field with a TrackWiz rating of 85.54 and a 16% career win rate, going postward at a 5/2 morning line that reflects reasonable market respect. Luis R. Rivera, Jr. gets the call for trainer Richard E. Dutrow, Jr. — and Dutrow's name on a program is always worth a second look, given his long track record of conditioning claimers to fire fresh. The 53 average speed figure matches the field median, and in a route race, class and conditioning often trump raw speed.

place3Son of a SlewML 7/2

Son of a Slew (No. 3) rates second in the field at 80.45 with an 8% career win rate and a 53 average speed figure. Francisco Martinez rides for Michael Dini, who is one of the more active and effective trainers at Monmouth this meet. At 7/2 morning line, Son of a Slew is almost certainly the second choice in the wagering, which means the place payoff might be modest — but the consistency of the rating makes this a near-lock for an exacta key.

show8Duck Duck GooseML 8/1

Duck Duck Goose (No. 8) is the most interesting show play on the entire card — a 28% career win rate that ties for the field lead, paired with a 79.79 TrackWiz rating that slots third overall. Charlie Marquez for Devon Dougherty gives this one a capable pilot, and a horse that wins at nearly a 28% clip historically knows how to get competitive. At 8/1 morning line, Duck Duck Goose represents excellent trifecta value for a horse that has clearly shown a strong desire to win throughout its career.

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Eight races, two surfaces, and a Stakes race in the middle of the card — Monmouth is serving up a solid Saturday. Start with Hop to It, Royal Merit, and Bee N Dee as your free best bet foundation, and let our premium analysis handle the rest of the card, including the pace-dependent Stakes in Race 5 and the value angle we love in Race 6. Full card breakdowns, exotic tickets, and pace projections are all waiting for subscribers — see you at the windows.

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