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Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — July 31, 2026

July 31, 20266 racesAll Monmouth Park picks

This card ran on July 31, 2026.

Best bets at Monmouth Park, July 31, 2026

Race 16Elsie's SmileML 6/12:00 PM EDT

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It's a beautiful Friday at the Jersey Shore. Clear skies, 80°F, and Monmouth Park serving up a six-race card that mixes turf and dirt action in a way that should keep handicappers busy from first post to last. Conditions are about as good as you'll get in late July — firm footing on the turf, a well-maintained dirt strip, and no weather curveballs to account for.

The card leans claiming for the most part, with a Maiden Special Weight and a Maiden Claiming sprinkled in to add some intrigue. Whether you're here for live racing, multi-race wagers, or just looking for a few sharp plays to make the afternoon interesting, there's plenty to dig into today.

Best Bets

Race 1

2:00 PM EDT

Claiming · 5 fur · Turf

A wide-open 5-furlong turf sprint where the morning line favorites don't hold the best TrackWiz ratings — look for value above the morning line as the real contenders cluster between ratings of 73 and 82.

win6Elsie's SmileML 6/1

Elsie's Smile tops our ratings at 82.04 and backs it up with a career win rate of 27% — one of the strongest in this field. Trainer Silvino Ramirez sends her out with Christian Maragh, a reliable combination on the Monmouth turf. At 6/1 on the morning line, she's a legitimate value play given her numbers suggest she should be closer to favoritism. That combination of high rating and strong win percentage is exactly what we look for in a top selection.

place4Bee N DeeML 8/1

Bee N Dee comes in at a juicy 8/1 morning line but carries a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 — second best in the field. The knock on her is a 10% career win rate, which tells you she finds ways to get beat, but a place ticket at these odds is a smart hedge in a wide-open sprint. Trainer Jose Lozano Sanchez keeps her competitive and Edwin Gonzalez knows how to nurse a closer home.

show5Pure BlissML 5/2

Pure Bliss is the public's pick at 5/2 and it's easy to see why — a 25% career win rate is the best in the field and her TrackWiz rating of 77.74 is right in the mix. Trainer Jorge Duarte, Jr. is live at Monmouth and Taylor Kingsley gives her an aggressive look. She's a reasonable win contender, but at short odds the show slot is where she offers the safest return in your exotics.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 9 runners

Race 2: Free with an Account

Race 2

2:38 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A 6-furlong dirt claiming sprint with a clear class separation at the top — Blue Moon Tide owns the best rating in the field by a comfortable margin, but the pace scenario could set up for something to close.

win1Blue Moon TideML 5/2

Blue Moon Tide lands on top of our ratings at 87.81 — the biggest edge any horse holds over the field across today's entire card at this distance. Trainer Eddie Owens, Jr. puts Luis R. Rivera, Jr. aboard, a confident booking for a race this competitive. The 10% career win rate is a mild concern, but when a horse separates itself by this much on rating, the numbers are hard to argue with. At 5/2, you're getting fair market value on what looks like the standout in the field.

place2Derby HangoverML 5/2

Derby Hangover checks in at 81.25 — clearly second-best here — and shares the 5/2 morning line with our top pick, which means the exacta could pay nicely if both land. Trainer Teresa M. Pompay has her pointed right, and Jose Antonio Gomez is a capable pilot. The 9% career win rate suggests she's more of a place/show type than a pure winner, which actually makes her ideal for the place slot in your wager structure.

show6Bashful BabyML 8/5

Bashful Baby is the morning-line favorite at 8/5, but our TrackWiz rating of 69.44 puts her third in the field — meaning she's likely overbet. That makes her less interesting to win and more interesting in the show slot where the risk of being overvalued is cushioned. The 16% career win rate is respectable and trainer Juan Carlos Avila keeps horses consistent. She'll likely hit the board, but backing her at chalk to win feels like leaving money on the table.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 6 runners

Our free analysis covers the first three races, and the turf theme is impossible to ignore — two of those three go on the grass. Elsie's Smile (6/1 morning line) kicks things off in Race 1 at five furlongs on turf, and our TrackWiz rating of 82.04 suggests she's got legitimate upside at a price the public may be underestimating. Race 2 flips to six furlongs on dirt, where Blue Moon Tide (5/2) earns our highest TrackWiz rating among the free picks at 87.81 — that kind of figure in a claiming sprint demands attention. Round out the free card with Mo Action in Race 3, a one-mile turf route where the 3/1 morning line looks fair but the 87.08 rating hints at a confident contender.

Today's pace scenario on the turf races favors horses who can settle and finish, especially with the ground this firm — closers get an extra look. On the dirt in Race 2, expect early speed to be tested, and Blue Moon Tide's profile sets up well for that environment.

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Full Card Analysis

Race 3

3:11 PM EDT

Claiming · 1 mi · Turf

A sprawling 11-horse turf mile at the claiming level — Mo Action is the clear class standout by our numbers, but with 11 runners on the lawn at a mile, trips get complicated and the place/show spots are very much in play for several others.

win1Mo ActionML 3/1

Mo Action is the most compelling top selection of the night on pure rating, posting an 87.08 — the highest mark in a deep field and nearly 18 points clear of the next-best horse. He also backs it up with a 20% career win rate, which is strong for a claiming turf mile where ground can be hard to find. Trainer Juan Carlos Avila is very active at Monmouth and Edwin Gonzalez is a sharp rider who knows how to get position in full fields. At 3/1, this is a fair price for a horse that looks clearly superior on our metrics.

place7Frankie GML 2/1

Frankie G is the morning-line favorite at 2/1, but his TrackWiz rating of 68.89 puts him fourth in the field — suggesting the public may be overrating him slightly for win purposes. That said, a 7% career win rate in turf routes tells you he's competitive but tends to fall just short, making the place slot a natural fit. Trainer Russell J. Cash has him primed and Ramon F. Moya is a live rider. He should be a factor late.

show11MentorML 4/1

Mentor at 4/1 catches the eye with a 25% career win rate — the best in this entire field — and a TrackWiz rating of 67.00 that puts him solidly in the mix. Trainer Kelly J. Breen is one of the sharper conditioners in the Mid-Atlantic region and Luis R. Rivera, Jr. is a go-to pilot for live horses. In a chaotic 11-horse turf mile, a horse with a 25% win rate can find the right trip and show up anywhere on the board.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 11 runners

Race 4

3:44 PM EDT

Maiden Special Weight · 5 fur · Dirt

First-time starters and lightly-raced maidens collide in a 5-furlong dirt sprint — several horses in this field have no recorded speed figures, making it a handicapper's puzzle where trainer intent and workout patterns carry extra weight.

win2Time to GrooveML 2/1

Time to Groove earns our top rating at 58.33 and pairs it with an average speed figure of 56 — tied for the highest in the field. Trainer Cathal A. Lynch is a respected conditioner who knows how to have a first-timer or lightly-raced maiden ready to run. Edwin Gonzalez gets the call, a rider who's been sharp around the Monmouth oval. In a race with multiple horses showing no speed figures at all, finding one with a verifiable 56 average is a meaningful edge.

place1T L From E KML 5/2

T L From E K is nearly identical to our top pick on the numbers — rating of 57.50 and the same 56 average speed figure — which is exactly why she slots comfortably into the place spot. Trainer Kelly J. Breen has a terrific record placing maidens competitively early in their careers, and Luis R. Rivera, Jr. is one of the stronger tactical riders in the colony. At 5/2 morning line, the public respects her chances, and the 1-2 exacta box with Time to Groove deserves consideration.

show8Tactfully WildML 6/1

Tactfully Wild shows no recorded speed figure, which means she's either first out or very lightly raced — but a TrackWiz rating of 51.67 puts her in the second tier of this field, and trainer Benjamin W. Perkins, Jr. has the experience to place a maiden well. Chantal Sutherland is a quality rider who can coax a big effort out of an unknown quantity. At 6/1, she's worth a small piece in the show spot or as a longshot component in trifecta tickets.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

Race 5

4:17 PM EDT

Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A 6-furlong dirt claiming race where the two highest-rated horses are being underestimated by the morning line — the public is leaning toward the 9/5 favorite, but our numbers tell a different story.

win6Doin ThisML 5/1

Doin This holds the top TrackWiz rating in the field at 84.17 and is pegged at 5/1 on the morning line — that's a significant disconnect that creates real value. Trainer Rory K. Huston keeps horses sharp and Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. is a confident booking. The 7% career win rate looks modest on the surface, but the rating gap between Doin This and the rest of the field is substantial enough to trust the model here. This is the kind of overlay situation that TrackWiz analysis is built to identify.

place7Happy OfferingML 2/1

Happy Offering comes in at 83.62 — just a half-point behind Doin This — and carries a 16% career win rate with trainer Chuck Spina sending Charlie Marquez aboard. She's the 2/1 morning-line second choice, which is a fair reflection of her talent, but our analysis suggests she and Doin This are nearly a class apart from the rest of the field. If pace sets up as a duel up front, one of these two wins and the other hits the board — she's the natural place play.

show3CassationML 6/1

Cassation drops into the show spot with a TrackWiz rating of 55.62 and an average speed figure of 53, which keeps her modestly competitive in a field where the top two are running away from everyone else. Trainer Anthony R. Margotta, Jr. double-dips in this race with Molly's a Bullet, but Cassation is the stronger of the two by the numbers. At 6/1, she offers a decent price as the third horse in trifecta combinations — if Doin This and Happy Offering set a pace duel, a fresh closer like Cassation can steal the show spot.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 7 runners

Race 6

4:47 PM EDT

Maiden Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt

A maiden claiming sprint packed with first-timers and winless horses — but one horse separates herself from the field on our ratings by a margin that's hard to overlook, making this less of a puzzle than the conditions suggest.

win2Mind BogglingML 3/1

Mind Boggling owns an 87.08 TrackWiz rating — the highest mark posted by any horse across all six races today at Monmouth — and she's going off at just 3/1 in a maiden claiming field. Trainer Silvino Ramirez pairs her with Eliseo Ruiz, a sharp tactical rider who can control position in a 10-horse sprint. In a field where the second-best rating is 57.60, this is not a close call on paper — she's a significant class above her rivals by our metrics. The entire field has a 0% career win rate, so it's about who's best right now, and the answer appears to be Mind Boggling.

place4Bet On BethML 6/1

Bet On Beth rates second in this field at 57.60 — a considerable drop from the top but well clear of most of the rest — with trainer Michael Dini sending Charlie Marquez up from the rail-adjacent four-hole. Her 53 average speed figure is respectable for this level and she's posted more measurable numbers than several rivals in here. At 6/1, she's a solid place bet who also deserves a spot in your trifecta underneath.

show10InfamyML 9/2

Infamy comes in at 9/2 and shows an average speed figure of 56 — the highest in the field — which is an intriguing data point for a horse going off as a mid-range price. Trainer Jorge Delgado points her to a spot where that speed can be competitive, and Carlos Eduardo Rojas gets the mount. In maiden claiming races, horses who post the top raw speed figure often find their way into the exotics even when they fall short of winning, making the show spot a logical landing place.

Live odds, scratches and ratings for all 10 runners

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Bottom line: Monmouth is dealing a clean, manageable card on a gorgeous afternoon. Blue Moon Tide and Mo Action are the headliners in our free analysis, but the real value may be hiding in the premium races — especially at Doin This's 5/1 price. Full card analysis, pace projections, and exotic breakdowns are available to subscribers. Good luck out there today.

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