Monmouth Park Picks & Predictions — July 31, 2026
It's a beautiful Friday at the Jersey Shore. Clear skies, 80°F, and Monmouth Park serving up a six-race card that mixes turf and dirt action in a way that should keep handicappers busy from first post to last. Conditions are about as good as you'll get in late July — firm footing on the turf, a well-maintained dirt strip, and no weather curveballs to account for.
The card leans claiming for the most part, with a Maiden Special Weight and a Maiden Claiming sprinkled in to add some intrigue. Whether you're here for live racing, multi-race wagers, or just looking for a few sharp plays to make the afternoon interesting, there's plenty to dig into today.
Best Bets
Race 1
Claiming · 5 fur · Turf
A wide-open 5-furlong turf sprint where the morning line favorites don't hold the best TrackWiz ratings — look for value above the morning line as the real contenders cluster between ratings of 73 and 82.
Elsie's Smile tops our ratings at 82.04 and backs it up with a career win rate of 27% — one of the strongest in this field. Trainer Silvino Ramirez sends her out with Christian Maragh, a reliable combination on the Monmouth turf. At 6/1 on the morning line, she's a legitimate value play given her numbers suggest she should be closer to favoritism. That combination of high rating and strong win percentage is exactly what we look for in a top selection.
Bee N Dee comes in at a juicy 8/1 morning line but carries a TrackWiz rating of 79.79 — second best in the field. The knock on her is a 10% career win rate, which tells you she finds ways to get beat, but a place ticket at these odds is a smart hedge in a wide-open sprint. Trainer Jose Lozano Sanchez keeps her competitive and Edwin Gonzalez knows how to nurse a closer home.
Pure Bliss is the public's pick at 5/2 and it's easy to see why — a 25% career win rate is the best in the field and her TrackWiz rating of 77.74 is right in the mix. Trainer Jorge Duarte, Jr. is live at Monmouth and Taylor Kingsley gives her an aggressive look. She's a reasonable win contender, but at short odds the show slot is where she offers the safest return in your exotics.
Race 2
Claiming · 6 fur · Dirt
A 6-furlong dirt claiming sprint with a clear class separation at the top — Blue Moon Tide owns the best rating in the field by a comfortable margin, but the pace scenario could set up for something to close.
Blue Moon Tide lands on top of our ratings at 87.81 — the biggest edge any horse holds over the field across today's entire card at this distance. Trainer Eddie Owens, Jr. puts Luis R. Rivera, Jr. aboard, a confident booking for a race this competitive. The 10% career win rate is a mild concern, but when a horse separates itself by this much on rating, the numbers are hard to argue with. At 5/2, you're getting fair market value on what looks like the standout in the field.
Derby Hangover checks in at 81.25 — clearly second-best here — and shares the 5/2 morning line with our top pick, which means the exacta could pay nicely if both land. Trainer Teresa M. Pompay has her pointed right, and Jose Antonio Gomez is a capable pilot. The 9% career win rate suggests she's more of a place/show type than a pure winner, which actually makes her ideal for the place slot in your wager structure.
Bashful Baby is the morning-line favorite at 8/5, but our TrackWiz rating of 69.44 puts her third in the field — meaning she's likely overbet. That makes her less interesting to win and more interesting in the show slot where the risk of being overvalued is cushioned. The 16% career win rate is respectable and trainer Juan Carlos Avila keeps horses consistent. She'll likely hit the board, but backing her at chalk to win feels like leaving money on the table.
Race 3
Claiming · 1 mi · Turf
A sprawling 11-horse turf mile at the claiming level — Mo Action is the clear class standout by our numbers, but with 11 runners on the lawn at a mile, trips get complicated and the place/show spots are very much in play for several others.
Mo Action is the most compelling top selection of the night on pure rating, posting an 87.08 — the highest mark in a deep field and nearly 18 points clear of the next-best horse. He also backs it up with a 20% career win rate, which is strong for a claiming turf mile where ground can be hard to find. Trainer Juan Carlos Avila is very active at Monmouth and Edwin Gonzalez is a sharp rider who knows how to get position in full fields. At 3/1, this is a fair price for a horse that looks clearly superior on our metrics.
Frankie G is the morning-line favorite at 2/1, but his TrackWiz rating of 68.89 puts him fourth in the field — suggesting the public may be overrating him slightly for win purposes. That said, a 7% career win rate in turf routes tells you he's competitive but tends to fall just short, making the place slot a natural fit. Trainer Russell J. Cash has him primed and Ramon F. Moya is a live rider. He should be a factor late.
Mentor at 4/1 catches the eye with a 25% career win rate — the best in this entire field — and a TrackWiz rating of 67.00 that puts him solidly in the mix. Trainer Kelly J. Breen is one of the sharper conditioners in the Mid-Atlantic region and Luis R. Rivera, Jr. is a go-to pilot for live horses. In a chaotic 11-horse turf mile, a horse with a 25% win rate can find the right trip and show up anywhere on the board.
Our free analysis covers the first three races, and the turf theme is impossible to ignore — two of those three go on the grass. Elsie's Smile (6/1 morning line) kicks things off in Race 1 at five furlongs on turf, and our TrackWiz rating of 82.04 suggests she's got legitimate upside at a price the public may be underestimating. Race 2 flips to six furlongs on dirt, where Blue Moon Tide (5/2) earns our highest TrackWiz rating among the free picks at 87.81 — that kind of figure in a claiming sprint demands attention. Round out the free card with Mo Action in Race 3, a one-mile turf route where the 3/1 morning line looks fair but the 87.08 rating hints at a confident contender.
Today's pace scenario on the turf races favors horses who can settle and finish, especially with the ground this firm — closers get an extra look. On the dirt in Race 2, expect early speed to be tested, and Blue Moon Tide's profile sets up well for that environment.
Full Card Analysis
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Bottom line: Monmouth is dealing a clean, manageable card on a gorgeous afternoon. Blue Moon Tide and Mo Action are the headliners in our free analysis, but the real value may be hiding in the premium races — especially at Doin This's 5/1 price. Full card analysis, pace projections, and exotic breakdowns are available to subscribers. Good luck out there today.